Norm Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 We have so many talented punters and kickers on FF! lol just giving you guys **** 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 @skibrett15 for laughing at Crosby kicking making only 53% of his kicks beyond 50 yards: Vinatieri is at 64% on his field goals from beyond 50 yards. He's played half his career in a dome. Green Bay is second hardest stadium to kick in in the NFL: https://nationalfootballpost.com/which-nfl-stadiums-are-the-best-and-worst-to-kick-in/ http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2013/02/13/stadium-home-team-effects-in-making-field-goals/ Mason Crosby makes 52 yard field goal, but a last second timeout makes him attempt again. The miss was off by literally a foot. (Vikings tie game) Mason Crosby misses 56 yard field goal against Detroit. 2017: Mason Crosby misses a 59 yard field goal against New Orleans. 2016: Mason Crosby misses a 51 yard field goal against Seattle. 2015: Mason Crosby misses a 52 yard field goal against Detroit. 2014: Mason Crosby misses a 50 yard field goal against Philadelphia. Mason Crosby 53 yard field goal BLOCKED against Bills. 2013: Mason Crosby misses a 52 yard field goal against Browns. Mason Crosby 53 yard field goal hits upright against Eagles. 2012 (Crosby's worst year): Crosby misses 52 yard field goal against Colts. Crosby misses 51 yard field goal against Colts. Crosby misses 58 yard field goal against Rams. Crosby misses 50 yard field goal against Detroit. Crosby misses 55 yard field goal against Giants. Crosby misses 53 yard field goal against Vikings. Crosby misses 51 yard field goal against Lions. (7 missed field goals in his worst year are from 50 yards or more). 2011: Mason Crosby misses 54 yard field goal. 2010: Mason Crosby 54 yard field goal BLOCKED against Dallas. 2009: Mason Crosby 55 yard field goal missed against Bengals. Mason Crosby 55 yard field goal missed against Browns. Mason Crosby 51 yard field goal missed against Vikings. Mason Crosby 52 yard field goal missed against Dallas. 2008: Mason Crosby 53 yard field goal missed against Falcons. Mason Crosby 52 yard field goal missed against Vikings. Mason Crosby 69 yard field goal missed against Lions. 2007: Mason Crosby 52 yard field goal missed against Chiefs. Mason Crosby 52 yard field goal missed against Raiders (Second hardest stadium to kick in). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 @skibrett15, since you lol'd at Crosby's missed 50+ yarders, I thought I'd go over them. First, don't you think that above post looks pretty long? So did I. In 23 seasons, Vinatieri has attempted 67 50 + yard field goals. in 13 seasons (10 less seasons), Crosby has attempted 64 50 + yard field goals. If you look at the numbers above, 13 of those missed 64 field goals were from beyond 52 yards. 8 of them were from beyond 54 yards. 1 of them was beyond 60 yards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 @skibrett15, let's talk about the playoffs. Mason Crosby has made 26/29 field goals in the playoffs. He has made 59 of 59 extra points in the playoffs. His first playoff miss? 54 yards. His second playoff miss? 50 yards. His only legit miss in his entire post season career was a 41 yard kick against the Falcons in the Buzzsaw game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 And finally, @skibrett15, if it's not stupid to cut Crosby, who is replacing him? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kicker/ Choose wisely. Half of the players listed as available actually have a team or are retired. I'll be waiting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 (edited) 1 minute ago, Outpost31 said: And finally, @skibrett15, if it's not stupid to cut Crosby, who is replacing him? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kicker/ Choose wisely. Half of the players listed as available actually have a team or are retired. I'll be waiting. He's already mentioned Matt Bryant FYI I just can't imagine his old *** being able to kick very long in the **** Wisconsin cold Edited July 3, 2019 by Norm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Norm said: He's already mentioned Matt Bryant FYI I just can't imagine his old *** being able to kick very long in the **** Wisconsin cold Didn’t see that he’d mentioned Bryant, but if he did I’d say: 44 years old. In a dome since he was 34 years old. He made 3.5 million last year. Assuming he took 2 million, we would save 1 million dollars to get 10 years older at kicker. Smart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 There needs to be an acknowledgement that the kicking game has changed very significantly since the turn of the century. I'll bet attempted FGs have an Expected Point Value of .25 points higher. 51 yards feels like it used to be a 10% chance proposition. Now it's probably above 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Not all 50s are created equal and that's where the context-less stats really fall short in making an assessment Indoors/outdoors. 1st quarter vs final seconds of the game. In overtime or to get to overtime With the wind, into the wind is always different at outdoor venues and sometimes that changes during the game playoffs vs regular season, with a lead or from behind. Lambeau before the South End Zone addition vs Lambeau after the SEZ was erected is a very different kicking environment September is different than December in some places, in others its not Crosby is a Packer until he can be suitably replaced, same as everybody else on the 53. I'm certain Meninga dove deep into the film when he signed on At cutdown time there are often a few interesting options - that's when GB snagged Longwell and he worked out OK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Just now, AlexGreen#20 said: There needs to be an acknowledgement that the kicking game has changed very significantly since the turn of the century. I'll bet attempted FGs have an Expected Point Value of .25 points higher. 51 yards feels like it used to be a 10% chance proposition. Now it's probably above 50% Right, and Crosby missed one realistic field goal attempt from 50 yards this past season. Crosby missed one realistic 50+ yard field goal in 2017. He missed one 50 yarder in 2016. He missed one 50 yarder in 2015. He missed one realistic 50 yarder in 2014 (unless you count a 53 yard attempt that was blocked realistic). This notion that Mason Crosby is poor from 50+ yards is ri-stupid-diculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 69 yards. Nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 13 hours ago, Cakeshoppe said: for what it's worth, PFR has expected points data for every play in their database. Crosby's average is -0.11 points per kick vs. expected. Opponents average +0.09 points per kick vs. average. I suspect that has at least as much to do with coaching decision-making as it does with kicking performance though. Isn't that the "expected part?" accounting for the length of the kick and lowering the expectation? Or does it tread the 4th down kick as a normal play where a decent punt would be 0.00 and so on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 (edited) Right now it's stupid to cut crosby before camp. But there isn't even anyone in camp to compete, which equally dumb. The best choice is to call up parkey and have him compete along with a young guy who hasn't gotten a shot yet like Younghoe Koo or some UDFA we don't really know about. You can also try to call matt bryant up for one more tour. The smarter and obvious choice would have been Cairo Santos or Dan Bailey for 1.5M. The cap savings here are real, and I don't really see the downside risk the same way... sure we could sign a slightly below average kicker or a slightly above average kicker. Crosby could have that same result next year too - slightly worse than normal or slightly better than normal. Bringing in Tavecchio last year when mason struggled would have also made sense since the FO staff knew him. And there's an outside shot he's just awful or really great. Same with the guy we sign. Most likely scenario is that they are both average. Edited July 3, 2019 by skibrett15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemike778 Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 If Crosby is making approx. 50% of his kicks from 50+ yards then what they says to me is that unless its 4th and whoa that's a long way then we probably shouldn't be kicking from 50+ yards. Most of the time, I'd rather just go for it. If you don't make it then field position isn't as bad for a start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, skibrett15 said: Right now it's stupid to cut crosby before camp. But there isn't even anyone in camp to compete, which equally dumb. The best choice is to call up parkey and have him compete along with a young guy who hasn't gotten a shot yet like Younghoe Koo or some UDFA we don't really know about. You can also try to call matt bryant up for one more tour. The smarter and obvious choice would have been Cairo Santos or Dan Bailey for 1.5M. The cap savings here are real, and I don't really see the downside risk the same way... sure we could sign a slightly below average kicker or a slightly above average kicker. Crosby could have that same result next year too - slightly worse than normal or slightly better than normal. Bringing in Tavecchio last year when mason struggled would have also made sense since the FO staff knew him. And there's an outside shot he's just awful or really great. Same with the guy we sign. Most likely scenario is that they are both average. There's another kicker in camp though isn't there? Edit: yeah, it's Sam Ficken Edited July 3, 2019 by Norm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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