Kmart128 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, .Buzz said: Stats @iPwn showed of the run D since Dareus left doesn't show a pretty light for your run D even without that 3 game stretch though. If you look past that it was up and down. Patriots killed us on the ground twice, we shut down the Chiefs and the Colts run game, and the dolphins played ok with a lot of garbage time stats in both games. It was very up and down... Just depended on what run game defense showed up. But even then it wasn't miserable like the person I quoted indicated. And I truly believe the run defense fell with the return of Humber. Benching Milano mid season really hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Jags point differential: 149 Bills point differential: minus-57 Jags expected Pythagorean wins: 11.8 Bills expected Pythagorean wins: 6.4 Over the course of the season, the Jags were better in all of the following. Offense: Points per game Yards per game Yards per play Pass yards Yards per attempt Yards per completion Passer rating Sacks Sack percentage Rush yards Yards per rush Red zone scoring percentage First downs Time of possession Punt % Defense: Points Yards Yards per play Pass yards Yards per pass Yards per completion Passer rating Interceptions Sacks Sack percentage Rush yards Yards per rush Yards per attempt Fumbles forced Third down conversion Red zone scoring percentage First downs 3 and outs Punt % From what I found, the Bills were better at Offense: 3rd down conversion Interceptions Fumbles Passer rating (Tyrod only) 3 and outs Defense: Nothing The Jaguars have the 8th overall DVOA, and the Bills the 21st. This has the Jaguars still with the #1 defense, paired with the #16 offense. The Bills sit 17th and 26th, respectively. If you use weighted, to show that the Bills were totally playing better football after they figured things out post-Dareus the Jags have the 10th rated DVOA, whereas the Bills actually have the 28th ranked weighted DVOA. Bills Run defense over the season: In the first 7 games (With Dareus): 161 rushes, 561 yards, 3.48 YPC 3 game skid: 124 carries, 648 yards, 5.14 YPC Final 6: 181 carries, 785 yards, 4.34 YPC The Jaguars are the most efficient team in football at getting after the passer, and the third best in the league at stopping a team at or behind the LOS. The Bills offense is third worst in giving up sacks and last in the league at being stopped at or behind the LOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 What I’m saying is... when the Jaguars lose this game, know it was one of the biggest choke jobs of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeEvans Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Cool. Good thing these games are played on paper. Let's just pack it up and go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, LeeEvans said: Cool. Good thing these games are played on paper. Let's just pack it up and go home. What is it with people getting offended that stats relevant to a game are posted? Should we not post context to any matchup unless both teams look equally as good? All week, I’ve had to walk on egg shells and preface every stat with “this doesn’t mean the Bills will lose.” And any time I forget to, or put it jokingly in another comment, I just get snarky responses like this from Bills fans. What’s the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmart128 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, iPwn said: What is it with people getting offended that stats relevant to a game are posted? Should we not post context to any matchup unless both teams look equally as good? All week, I’ve had to walk on egg shells and preface every stat with “this doesn’t mean the Bills will lose.” And any time I forget to, or put it jokingly in another comment, I just get snarky responses like this from Bills fans. What’s the deal? Id just like to see what those stats say about the Chiefs and Titans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Slim Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 i think the jags are going to win but i'm so sick of people acting as if trading dareus to jacksonville is when the bills started sucking at run defence because dareus played like no snaps at all fwiw i do think the bills have the highest away-team-to-win-potential out of anyone this week so who knows if they can pull it off, i hope they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mesa_Titan Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, iPwn said: What is it with people getting offended that stats relevant to a game are posted? Should we not post context to any matchup unless both teams look equally as good? All week, I’ve had to walk on egg shells and preface every stat with “this doesn’t mean the Bills will lose.” And any time I forget to, or put it jokingly in another comment, I just get snarky responses like this from Bills fans. What’s the deal? I'm going to (puke) agree with iPwn here, (vomit) you guys shouldn't be whining when he's simply posting stats. Doesn't mean the Bills wont win. Simply just stating facts about the regular seasons each team had. For the record, pythag records basically mean nothing in football, same as point differential. It's not the same as baseball, they don't have a big enough sample size for one, and two, football has far too many random outcomes that can happen compared to baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeEvans Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, iPwn said: What is it with people getting offended that stats relevant to a game are posted? Should we not post context to any matchup unless both teams look equally as good? All week, I’ve had to walk on egg shells and preface every stat with “this doesn’t mean the Bills will lose.” And any time I forget to, or put it jokingly in another comment, I just get snarky responses like this from Bills fans. What’s the deal? I've said multiple times I don't think we win this game and that the Jags are a more talented team but the the only way they win is if the Jags lose is because of the worst choke job of all time is harsh. We had a tremendous losing streak during which the wheels completely came off and have a negative 78 point differential in that three game sketch that skews that number quite heavily. Whatever, maybe you're right and we get blown out. Hopefully your stats are better than the stuff the Browns stats guys are using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said: Id just like to see what those stats say about the Chiefs and Titans At the end of the day you gotta play the game. I get that. By the stats KC should have won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said: Id just like to see what those stats say about the Chiefs and Titans Again, I ask, why does every stat need to be posted with an explanation that they aren’t 100% predictors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmart128 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 minute ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: At the end of the day you gotta play the game. I get that. By the stats KC should have won And Falcons beating Rams... The way I see it Playoffs are like a start over. Always been that way. Everyone's stats are at 0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeEvans Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Mesa_Titan said: I'm going to (puke) agree with iPwn here, (vomit) you guys shouldn't be whining when he's simply posting stats. Doesn't mean the Bills wont win. Simply just stating facts about the regular seasons each team had. For the record, pythag records basically mean nothing in football, same as point differential. It's not the same as baseball, they don't have a big enough sample size for one, and two, football has far too many random outcomes that can happen compared to baseball. I had a lot bigger problem with the follow up post than the initial stats post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, LeeEvans said: but the the only way they win is if the Jags lose is because of the worst choke job of all time is harsh. I said “when they lose”. I was making a joke about how I just pulled 30 or whatever stats that said the Jags have been better, but then followed it up by saying they’re going to lose in spite of every metric showing they *shouldn’t*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeEvans Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Just now, iPwn said: I said “when they lose”. I was making a joke about how I just pulled 30 or whatever stats that said the Jags have been better, but then followed it up by saying they’re going to lose. I apologize then, I took as saying the only way the Bills can win is by the Jaguars being terrible which I think is unfair. Again, I expect the better team(you) to win but i don't think it's exactly a complete mismatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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