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3 minutes ago, Cheech said:

It is still very early.  I'd like to hope that their agents have them hold out for a bigger deal in UFA.  Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett found their way to Seattle...

You're more than welcome to go through previous year's FA, and see which ones you thought were relatively well priced and they're going to be vastly outweighed by guys who are getting overpaid based on career years.  I mean, Robert Ayers got $5M/year coming off a 9 sack season.  Michael Johnson got big bucks from the Buccaneers.  Quality pass rushers are few and far between, and they're generally locked up before they hit FA.

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27 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You're more than welcome to go through previous year's FA, and see which ones you thought were relatively well priced and they're going to be vastly outweighed by guys who are getting overpaid based on career years.  I mean, Robert Ayers got $5M/year coming off a 9 sack season.  Michael Johnson got big bucks from the Buccaneers.  Quality pass rushers are few and far between, and they're generally locked up before they hit FA.

I'm not disputing that at all.  

Nothing is an exact science when dealing with the human element.  

You could probably make a similar observation with the number of first round pass rushers vs. their career production.  

In both circumstances the price is high - either in draft capital or cap space.  In both circumstances you do your best research into the person that you're investing in.  In both circumstances you still have to hope for the best.

The two points that would make me lean toward signing a free agent CB or edge rusher are 1 - if your cap is healthy enough you can miss on a guy and not lose out on the opportunity to keep your own young talent.  2 - You know what that player can do against NFL talent.  There should be less of a projection.  

I'd MUCH rather see the D and D approach used where the young guys get a few years to actually develop.  I'm not sure the new collective bargaining agreement is ever going to make that plan feasible.  I think there are times when you have to use free agency in hopes of adding an impact player.  

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On 1/12/2018 at 12:42 PM, SSG said:

I think he's an ok player but he's very inconsistent and unreliable.  It's pretty clear that he will never approach his 2016 season again.  I    know it will never happen but we really need Perry to stay healthy.  He's getting paid substantially too much for season's like last year.  IMO he was part of our problem last year when it came to our inability to get to the passer.

 

He's a very frustrating player.  Some games he looks unblockable.  Other games he gets man handled and humiliated by 4th strong caliber tackles.  

Wait, what?

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On 1/12/2018 at 9:21 PM, MNPackfan32 said:

I love the cherry picking. "3-4 OLB" ?? Yeah, let's not have a fair comparison by making it an EDGE Rusher category. Let's cherry pick what we want to see. ? Also, look at the guaranteed money, Perry is a bargain.

I wasn't aware that comparing Perry to his peers is cherry picking.  Nick Perry isn't a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 DE, not sure why we need to start comparing him to one.    

Nick Perry is scheduled to make on average of 12 million dollars a season.  I  don't view that as a bargin for a mediocre pass rusher.  39 sacks in 6 NFL seasons and post seasons  is what I could consider mediocre.  He's making more than guys who are substantially better edge rushers.  

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On 1/12/2018 at 5:09 PM, SSG said:

 

We'll have to agree to disagree.  FIVE 3-4 OLBs in the NFL make more money than Nick Perry.  That is my definition of elite company when it comes to contracts.  

I  don't view him as a tremendous pass rusher.  He's got 37.5 career sacks in 6 NFL seasons (79 career games RS and PO). He's got one season with double digit sacks and that season was BY FAR his the best in his career.  He's finished in the top 10 in sacks just once (tied for 8th with 5 players, last year) his best season prior to that was finishing tied for 99th.  This year he tied for 40th.  I  was going to compile the number of players who have had more sacks than Perry since he's been in the league but that number of players is so ridiculously high that it would have taken a substantial amount of time to do on just one laptop screen.  As far as being a pass rusher goes, he's got one season that is far and away better than anything he's ever done as a pro and that season was a contract season.  Whitney Mercilus has 7 more career sacks in the same number of seasons and was signed long term for almost half of what were paying Perry a season.

While depth is an issue, it hardly was a reason that Nick Perry struggled to get to the passer.  I don't think his production would have went up with fewer pass rushing opportunities.  

I don't have a beef with Nick Perry.  My beef is paying an average pass rusher like he's an all pro or a perennial pro bowler.  We can't afford our highest paid players playing like their just average starters.

When you intentionally obfuscate the issue by only comparing him to 3-4 OLBs rather than the entire class of Edge Rushers, that's the problem with your comparison work. He's the 11th highest paid edge guy in the league on a per year basis, IN THE FIRST YEAR OF HIS CONTRACT. That's going to get surpassed by everybody in the next few years. That is not the pay rate of an elite player in the slightest.

Additionally, and I know everybody is sick of hearing it, but on a per snap basis, Nick Perry is easily in the second tier of pass rushers. He can rush the passer. When he was a Free Agent, letting him walk would have been disastrous. With contract in hand, there are 31 teams who would trade for him. 

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On 1/13/2018 at 9:29 AM, Cheech said:

https://twitter.com/JuMosq/status/948755122280046595

Wasn't sure where to drop this in because it could lead in multiple different directions...  FA debates on the top 2 available edge rushers in Lawrence and Ansah... Clay clearly not as bad as some are making him out to be. (Still worth considering a restructured deal, given what he is making.)  Or the fact that Perry isn't on this list at all...

 

Without seeing what this is measuring, it's a list of arbitrary numbers. Not saying @justo doesn't do good work, but there's nothing here to acknowledge.

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Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

When you intentionally obfuscate the issue by only comparing him to 3-4 OLBs rather than the entire class of Edge Rushers, that's the problem with your comparison work. He's the 11th highest paid edge guy in the league on a per year basis, IN THE FIRST YEAR OF HIS CONTRACT. That's going to get surpassed by everybody in the next few years. That is not the pay rate of an elite player in the slightest.

Additionally, and I know everybody is sick of hearing it, but on a per snap basis, Nick Perry is easily in the second tier of pass rushers. He can rush the passer. When he was a Free Agent, letting him walk would have been disastrous. With contract in hand, there are 31 teams who would trade for him. 

Nick Perry has played his entire NFL career as a 3-4 OLB.  Why do you need him compared to both 4-3 and 3-4 DEs?  You are right, I  am intentionally comparing him to his peers, not some made up position group that includes any number or NFL positions.  

 

Maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe 12m million per year is the caliber of contract that we should expect form every run of the mill player.  Nick Perry has one season in his entire NFL career where he's shown to be a productive pass rusher.  

 

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Just now, SSG said:

Nick Perry has played his entire NFL career as a 3-4 OLB.  Why do you need him compared to both 4-3 and 3-4 DEs?  You are right, I  am intentionally comparing him to his peers, not some made up position group that includes any number or NFL positions.  

 

Maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe 12m million per year is the caliber of contract that we should expect form every run of the mill player.  Nick Perry has one season in his entire NFL career where he's shown to be a productive pass rusher.  

 

I genuinely hope you're trolling and not just a dullard.

You don't see the reason why you would compare 4-3 DEs with 3-4 OLBs? Not because they line up in the same spot on the field? Not because they have the same job description on 95+% of snaps? Not because players constantly transition between the two, and the free agent market for teams accounts for both positions?

This is damn near the equivalent of saying that Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson don't play the same position because Matt Ryan lines up under center, and Russell Wilson lines up in the shotgun and has a role in the read option.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Additionally, you can't justifiably compare players who have signed contracts in 2017 to players who signed contracts in 2014 based on AAV. Of course the players in 2017 have larger AAVs, the Salary cap has gone up 25% since then. If you're going to make that idiot claim, In 3 years when Nick Perry has the 30th highest AAV in the league for edge guys, you better be back saying that he's on an elite contract.

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1 hour ago, SSG said:

Nick Perry has played his entire NFL career as a 3-4 OLB.  Why do you need him compared to both 4-3 and 3-4 DEs?  

Right here, this says it all ?

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16 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I genuinely hope you're trolling and not just a dullard.

You don't see the reason why you would compare 4-3 DEs with 3-4 OLBs? Not because they line up in the same spot on the field? Not because they have the same job description on 95+% of snaps? Not because players constantly transition between the two, and the free agent market for teams accounts for both positions?

This is damn near the equivalent of saying that Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson don't play the same position because Matt Ryan lines up under center, and Russell Wilson lines up in the shotgun and has a role in the read option.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Additionally, you can't justifiably compare players who have signed contracts in 2017 to players who signed contracts in 2014 based on AAV. Of course the players in 2017 have larger AAVs, the Salary cap has gone up 25% since then. If you're going to make that idiot claim, In 3 years when Nick Perry has the 30th highest AAV in the league for edge guys, you better be back saying that he's on an elite contract.

Exactly correct.

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18 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I genuinely hope you're trolling and not just a dullard.

You don't see the reason why you would compare 4-3 DEs with 3-4 OLBs? Not because they line up in the same spot on the field? Not because they have the same job description on 95+% of snaps? Not because players constantly transition between the two, and the free agent market for teams accounts for both positions?

This is damn near the equivalent of saying that Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson don't play the same position because Matt Ryan lines up under center, and Russell Wilson lines up in the shotgun and has a role in the read option.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Additionally, you can't justifiably compare players who have signed contracts in 2017 to players who signed contracts in 2014 based on AAV. Of course the players in 2017 have larger AAVs, the Salary cap has gone up 25% since then. If you're going to make that idiot claim, In 3 years when Nick Perry has the 30th highest AAV in the league for edge guys, you better be back saying that he's on an elite contract.

Kid could be learning still, I didn't know a whole lot when I first came here either. Not to say that I know much now, but I've certainly come a very long way

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23 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Without seeing what this is measuring, it's a list of arbitrary numbers. Not saying @justo doesn't do good work, but there's nothing here to acknowledge.

I believe it's a combination of TFL+sacks+pressures and comparing it on a per snap basis.  I believe that's what it was at least.

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On 1/13/2018 at 11:47 AM, Cheech said:

I'm not disputing that at all.  

Nothing is an exact science when dealing with the human element.  

You could probably make a similar observation with the number of first round pass rushers vs. their career production.  

In both circumstances the price is high - either in draft capital or cap space.  In both circumstances you do your best research into the person that you're investing in.  In both circumstances you still have to hope for the best.

The two points that would make me lean toward signing a free agent CB or edge rusher are 1 - if your cap is healthy enough you can miss on a guy and not lose out on the opportunity to keep your own young talent.  2 - You know what that player can do against NFL talent.  There should be less of a projection.  

I'd MUCH rather see the D and D approach used where the young guys get a few years to actually develop.  I'm not sure the new collective bargaining agreement is ever going to make that plan feasible.  I think there are times when you have to use free agency in hopes of adding an impact player.  

It's just incredibly frustrating that people keep using the whole logic that the Packers can just snap their fingers and sign some high quality pass rusher in FA.  It just doesn't happen very often, and it's often because of extenuating circumstances.  When the Packers signed Julius Peppers, it was because the Chicago Bears were in significant cap issues and needed to create cap space.  IF you want a premier pass rusher, you need to draft and develop them.  They're at an absolute premium these days.

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23 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

When you intentionally obfuscate the issue by only comparing him to 3-4 OLBs rather than the entire class of Edge Rushers, that's the problem with your comparison work. He's the 11th highest paid edge guy in the league on a per year basis, IN THE FIRST YEAR OF HIS CONTRACT. That's going to get surpassed by everybody in the next few years. That is not the pay rate of an elite player in the slightest.

Additionally, and I know everybody is sick of hearing it, but on a per snap basis, Nick Perry is easily in the second tier of pass rushers. He can rush the passer. When he was a Free Agent, letting him walk would have been disastrous. With contract in hand, there are 31 teams who would trade for him. 

He's a damn good #2 EDGE, and if he ever managed to stay healthy for an entire season I've got very little doubt that we'd see him consistently posting double-digit sack seasons.

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