Ask Keyser - 2017 Fantasy Questions Thread

[Dolphins1984]

2 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Here's my top 50 in PPR:

 

 

Tier 1
1	Antonio Brown
2	Odell Beckham
3	Jordy Nelson
4	Julio Jones
5	A.J. Green
6	Mike Evans
Tier 2
7	Michael Thomas
8	Dez Bryant
Tier 3
9	Doug Baldwin
10	Brandin Cooks
11	Terrelle Pryor
12	T.Y. Hilton
13	Amari Cooper
14	Davante Adams
15	Michael Crabtree
16	Demaryius Thomas
17	Tyrell Williams
Tier 4
18	Larry Fitzgerald
19	DeAndre Hopkins
20	Golden Tate
21	Keenan Allen
22	Allen Robinson
Tier 5
23	Jarvis Landry
24	Jamison Crowder
25	Jeremy Maclin
26	Willie Snead
27	Alshon Jeffery
28	Corey Davis
29	Eric Decker
Tier 6
30	Stefon Diggs
31	Tyreek Hill
32	Sammy Watkins
33	Emmanuel Sanders
34	Martavis Bryant
35	Brandon Marshall
36	Pierre Garcon
Tier 7
37	Kelvin Benjamin
38	Kenny Britt
39	Randall Cobb
40	Chris Hogan
41	Donte Moncrief
42	DeSean Jackson
43	Jordan Matthews
44	Robby Anderson
45	Corey Coleman
46	DeVante Parker
47	Marvin Jones
48	John Brown
49	Danny Amendola
50	Adam Thielen

Hey, really enjoyed your top 50 WR rankings but I have a few questions.

 

Why are you so low on Kelvin Benjamin (37) and DeVante Parker (46)?  Both players look to be trending up this preseason.

 

Why so high on Tyrell Williams (17) and Michael Crabtree (15)?

 

What’s makes up the difference for you for the players in tier gaps 4-6?

 

I would be interested in seeing your top 50 RB rankings for PPR.

 

Thank you

[SoS]

I'm also curious to hear why you rank Tyrell ahead of Keenan Allen (I have both on one of my teams, with Tyrell essentially acting as a valuable handcuff). 

Also curious to hear your thoughts on Ted Ginn being named the #2 ahead of Willie Snead. Snead is a player I am low on this season and I think Ginn is a sneaky bet to finish as a top 30 WR as the only real deep threat on that Saints high octane offense that will force defenses to respect the run this season. 

[SoS]

Key & anyone else, need input on what could be a preseason blockbuster move. Quick run over of scoring. 1 PPR w/ +3 for 100+ yards and +5 for 200+ yards. Here's the current makeup of my team (12 team league): 

QB: D.Brees
RB: L.McCoy / J.Ajayi / M.Ingram / S.Vereen 
WR: K.Allen / D.Thomas / P.Garcon / T.Williams / T.Ginn / Z.Jones
TE: Z.Ertz / J.Doyle
D/ST: Panthers / Chargers (traded Vikings+Ebron for Chargers+Garcon) 
K: M.Bryant

OFFER
Send: J.Ajayi + T.Ginn 
Receive: D.Martin + J.Mixon + M.Gillislee

Obviously this would be a huge move. Ajayi was a maniac in this league last year with the yardage bonuses once he was made starter. I'd be getting three risky investments in return with hopes that at least two of them become valuable. 

I'm trying to squeeze one of Crabtree or Tyreek out of him to improve my WR3 spot, but he's been stubborn about it to-date (I'd be adding Vereen & Doyle, his current TE is Evan Engram). 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

14 minutes ago, SoS said:

Key & anyone else, need input on what could be a preseason blockbuster move. Quick run over of scoring. 1 PPR w/ +3 for 100+ yards and +5 for 200+ yards. Here's the current makeup of my team (12 team league): 

QB: D.Brees
RB: L.McCoy / J.Ajayi / M.Ingram / S.Vereen 
WR: K.Allen / D.Thomas / P.Garcon / T.Williams / T.Ginn / Z.Jones
TE: Z.Ertz / J.Doyle
D/ST: Panthers / Chargers (traded Vikings+Ebron for Chargers+Garcon) 
K: M.Bryant

OFFER
Send: J.Ajayi + T.Ginn 
Receive: D.Martin + J.Mixon + M.Gillislee

Obviously this would be a huge move. Ajayi was a maniac in this league last year with the yardage bonuses once he was made starter. I'd be getting three risky investments in return with hopes that at least two of them become valuable. 

I'm trying to squeeze one of Crabtree or Tyreek out of him to improve my WR3 spot, but he's been stubborn about it to-date (I'd be adding Vereen & Doyle, his current TE is Evan Engram). 

Coming from someone who isn't a big Ajayi fan, i'd say no to the trade. I have Mixon and Gil in my $ league but not really sure of their role yet. Ajayi and Mccoy are such a solid 1-2 punch, I'd like to see some sort of star power come back. 

[Sad People]

6 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Pretty good.  I'm a little iffy about your receivers.  Hilton with no luck and Jeffery's injury history are question marks.  I like backing them up with high-floor guys like Decker and Maclin, though.  I probably would have taken a receiver over AP in the 7th.  

I agree with you with the AP thing, He burned me last year and I guess I really wanted him on 1 team this year just in case he does well. (just my luck) Injuries don't really affect me to much when drafting anymore they're so unpredictable you never know when someone is going to get hurt, Yes guys get injured more often then not but it doesn't affect me during draft time. I was thinking about just using Maclin as my WR2 for the most part thoughts on that?

[holt_bruce81]

2 hours ago, SoS said:

Key & anyone else, need input on what could be a preseason blockbuster move. Quick run over of scoring. 1 PPR w/ +3 for 100+ yards and +5 for 200+ yards. Here's the current makeup of my team (12 team league): 

QB: D.Brees
RB: L.McCoy / J.Ajayi / M.Ingram / S.Vereen 
WR: K.Allen / D.Thomas / P.Garcon / T.Williams / T.Ginn / Z.Jones
TE: Z.Ertz / J.Doyle
D/ST: Panthers / Chargers (traded Vikings+Ebron for Chargers+Garcon) 
K: M.Bryant

OFFER
Send: J.Ajayi + T.Ginn 
Receive: D.Martin + J.Mixon + M.Gillislee

Obviously this would be a huge move. Ajayi was a maniac in this league last year with the yardage bonuses once he was made starter. I'd be getting three risky investments in return with hopes that at least two of them become valuable. 

I'm trying to squeeze one of Crabtree or Tyreek out of him to improve my WR3 spot, but he's been stubborn about it to-date (I'd be adding Vereen & Doyle, his current TE is Evan Engram). 

I agree with @JaguarCrazy2832 I wouldn't do that trade. 

[holt_bruce81]

If Chad Henne were to get the starting gig in Jacksonville (and i know they said Bortles is the starter) how much would that help or hurt Allen Robinson? 

Also, in the mocks I do, i like how my team looks the most when i go 3 RBs in the first 3 rounds. I find myself with a lot of DeMarco-Fournette-Cook/Crowell/Mixon and then i'll snag up guys like Kelvin, Davante Adams, Crabtree or Tate between the 4th and 6th rounds. That being said, if a WR like Jordy Nelson or Michael Thomas fall to the 2nd round, i'd be stupid to pass on him for a 3rd tier RB right? When that happens on occasion, i always seem to hate my flex spot, I'm always picking between guys like Garcon and DeVante Parker to fill that spot. 

[SalvadorsDeli]

20 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

I'd try to trade Moncrief for a better RB than Williams before making that drop.  Moncrief still may carry some clout in others' eyes.  Love, love your team though.  I'm high on Green, Murray, Montgomery, McCaffrey, and Davis.  

Thanks - I offered Moncrief for Ameer Abdullah yesterday, don't think the other guy is gonna bite but worth a shot I guess.

Also want to echo the questions around you ranking Tyrell Williams so high. I know Mike Williams is hobbled with injuries but it seems like Tyrell is the #2 at best in that offense behind Keenan Allen and a placeholder until Mike gets healthy - what has you thinking he's WR17? 

Tyrell just got dropped in my league so I may just swap Moncrief for him and hold on moving for a 5th RB until after Week 1 when antsy owners start dropping worthwhile handcuffs. 

[keysersoze3421]

20 hours ago, TheVillain112 said:

Appreciate it @keysersoze3421

I may die on this hill, but I think Adam Thielen should be in Tier 5 (In PPR leagues).  I think he'll consistently be Bradfords check down target which means he'll get a lot of opportunities.  I trust him more than a guy like Jeremy Maclin.  Thielen did finish as WR#30 last year (I believe) and I think he can do that again this year...

Once you get past like 10 guys, it's a total crapshoot.  I've seen rankings with guys everywhere.  I can totally see Thielen becoming a valuable PPR player, but I also see Diggs as the primary checkdown target.  His YPC reflected his work close to the LOS.  I also don't have a whole lot of hope for RZ looks for Thielen or Diggs because Rudolph was second in RZ targets among all players, and if Bradford's not looking for him, he's probably handing it off.

[keysersoze3421]

19 hours ago, lancerman said:

12 man ppr 

QB: Drew Brees

WR: OBJ

WR: Eric Decker

RB: Adrian Peterson

RB: Marshawn Lynch

TE: Kelce

Flex: undecided pick from my bench 

K: Prater

D/ST: Broncos

Bench: Rex Burkhead

Bench: James White

Bench: Big Ben

Bench: Mohammad Sanu

Bench: Austin Hooper

Bench: Devin Funchess

Bench: Giants defense 

hows this look Keyser

 

I'm frightened of your RBs.  You have two guys that are over 30 that I'm avoiding and then two Pats guys who could cannibalize the other's value.  I also think you need to make some moves at your WR spot for better depth than Sanu and Funchess.  There was no need to draft Hooper or Ben with Brees and Kelce on your roster.  Those spots should have gone to WR/RBs.

[tntitans4life17]

10 man PPR, had 6th pick:

 

QB: Marcus Mariota

RB: LeSean McCoy

RB: Isaiah Crowell

WR: Michael Thomas

WR: Terrelle Pryor

TE: Tyler Eifert

R/W/T: Larry Fitzgerald

R/W/T: Kareem Hunt

D/ST: Panthers

Bench:

Rex Burkhead

Rob Kelley

Alvin Kamara

Tyreek Hill

Zay Jones

Mike Wallace

 

Thoughts?

[flyers0909]

Key, do you have your RB tiers?  

Also I've got my 2QB draft tonight, its 12 team PPR and I have the 2nd pick.  The way my mocks have been going I typically get Bell, Dez, and Baldwin/Cooper in the first three rounds.  Is the end of round 4/start of round 5 too late to take my first QB you think?  It typically plays out that I'll be in the Luck, Winston, Mariota tier of QBs in the 2nd and 3rd round and I just feel like grabbing two borderline top 10 WRs is worth it more than one of the QBs.  If that happens I'm looking at Rivers/Stafford/Ben in rounds 4/5. 

[kingseanjohn]

On 8/25/2017 at 5:34 PM, kingseanjohn said:

I can keep four players, with no loss of draft picks. League starts 2QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1FLEX and has 0.5 ppr. Which four do you keep?

QB: Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott

RB: Mike Gillislee, Thomas Rawls, Melvin Gordon, Jerick McKinnon, Tim Hightower

WR: Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Michael Crabtree, Demaryius Thomas, Travis Benjamin,

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Maretllus Bennett, Kyle Rudolph

 

I'm leaning towards Prescott, Gordon, M Thomas, then Rivers/Roethlisberger and hopefully trade the other one. I'd like to keep Gronk (had him since 2011). But the guy just can't stay healthy. I appreciate any input!

I'm bumping my own post. Haven't got any responses

[holt_bruce81]

5 hours ago, flyers0909 said:

Key, do you have your RB tiers?  

Also I've got my 2QB draft tonight, its 12 team PPR and I have the 2nd pick.  The way my mocks have been going I typically get Bell, Dez, and Baldwin/Cooper in the first three rounds.  Is the end of round 4/start of round 5 too late to take my first QB you think?  It typically plays out that I'll be in the Luck, Winston, Mariota tier of QBs in the 2nd and 3rd round and I just feel like grabbing two borderline top 10 WRs is worth it more than one of the QBs.  If that happens I'm looking at Rivers/Stafford/Ben in rounds 4/5. 

His RB tiers were on the other forum, they haven't been updated in a bit...but here was his post on July 27th....

Quote

Designed for PPR. If you have questions about adjustments for standard, just ask. 

Tier 1
1 David Johnson 
2 Le'Veon Bell 
3 Ezekiel Elliott 

Tier 2
4 Melvin Gordon 
5 LeSean McCoy 
6 DeMarco Murray 

Tier 3
7 Devonta Freeman 
8 Jay Ajayi 
9 Jordan Howard 
10 Lamar Miller 
11 Joe Mixon 

Tier 4
12 Leonard Fournette 
13 Isaiah Crowell 
14 Todd Gurley 
15 Spencer Ware 
16 Ty Montgomery 
17 Carlos Hyde 
18 Marshawn Lynch 
19 CJ Anderson 
20 Danny Woodhead 
21 Dalvin Cook 
22 Christian McCaffrey 

Tier 5
23 Tevin Coleman 
24 Frank Gore 
25 Mike Gillislee 
26 Bilal Powell 
27 Paul Perkins 
28 Terrance West 
29 Mark Ingram 
30 Derrick Henry 
31 Ameer Abdullah 
32 Doug Martin 
33 Adrian Peterson 
34 Eddie Lacy 

Tier 6
34 Theo Riddick 
35 LeGarrette Blount 
36 Samaje Perine 
37 Jacquizz Rodgers 
38 Rob Kelley 
39 Matt Forte 
40 Thomas Rawls 
41 CJ Prosise 
42 James White 
43 Gio Bernard 
44 Jonathan Stewart 
45 Latavius Murray 

Tier 7
46 Jamaal Williams 
47 Jonathan Williams 
48 Kareem Hunt 
49 DeAndre Washington 
50 Joe Williams 

Notes: 

* After the first 25 or so names, it became really tough to distinguish guys. There are pros and cons to almost all of them, and how you weigh those pros and cons can ultimately determine whether you agree with the rankings or not. If you don't think Mark Ingram is in any danger of losing his job, maybe you move him into the top 20. If you think Eddie Lacy is a safer bet than I do, maybe he's a low-end RB2. If you disagree with the rankings, I probably won't fight you on a ton since RB is a really tough spot this year. 

* Most experts have Devonta Freeman in Tier 2 with McCoy, Gordon, and Murray. After reviewing last year's numbers, I saw Freeman as a step below. His median RB16 finish was significantly lower than those of the other guys (McCoy - 4.5; Gordon - 8.5; Murray - 9) and more in line with Ajayi and Howard. Top 12 finishes: Murray - 11, McCoy - 9, Gordon - 8, Freeman - 6. 

* I'm significantly higher on Joe Mixon than most analysts, though two names I trust, Matt Waldman and Sigmund Bloom, have him 13 and 12, respectively. I see a lot of Matt Forte in Mixon, and I think his overall skillset is the best among the rookie RBs. He's an excellent pass catcher, and I'm willing to take a gamble on him in the 3rd round. I think it became clear the Bengals do not like Jeremy Hill and do not plan to use him much. If Gio Bernard were healthy to start the season, I might re-think how high I have Mixon, but my guess is he takes the job and doesn't look back. 

* Cannot get behind drafting Marshawn Lynch this season. On paper with the elite O-line and a year of rest, it looks like a clear path to fantasy points, but my gut is telling me to stay away. 

* Why zero RB might work this year: you can get about 5 guys in the late 6th round or later that look poised for 200+ carries. Paul Perkins (late 6th), LeGarrette Blount (late 6th), Frank Gore (7th round), Samaje Perine (8th) or Rob Kelley (10th), and Terrance West (10th) all could bring solid RB2 value, well above their draft slots. 

* If you need an early season starter and you trust your ability to find an RB on the waiver wire, look no further than Jacquizz Rodgers, who is being drafted in the 11th round and has a clear path to the starting job for the first three weeks. His weekly PPR finishes in his starts last year: RB14, RB14, RB15, RB18, RB38. He's definitely worth a look if you load up early on WRs or go zero RB. 

* Last tier is just a handful of guys who are in pretty good situations and could become starters midway through the season due to an injury. I have them so low because I don't recommend drafting them as anything more than last round fliers.

I wonder if @keysersoze3421 has Hunt as a top15 RB now that Ware is out and if any of those rookies are making their way up his big board?

[sammymvpknight]

3 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

I'm bumping my own post. Haven't got any responses

Gronk, M. Thomas, Gordon, Prescott