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Mock v1A - The Kirk Cousins variable


paul-mac

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As the title suggests, I'm going to be doing two of these mocks before Free Agency starts, with the variable being whether or not the Broncos land Kirk Cousins. The main objective is for me to illustrate how I believe our offseason varies on what happens with Cousins.

 

Starting cap room: $23m

 

Traded: QB Trevor Siemian and CB Aqib Talib to the Cleveland Browns for a 4th rounder and 2019 conditional 3rd rounder. This saves the Broncos $13m against the salary cap. The move makes sense for the Browns because they have so many draft picks and cap room that they almost need to trade for some veteran talent, bringing Siemian in will give them a decent veteran backup to teach their first round guy about being an NFL QB.

 

Cut: RB CJ Anderson - Saves $4.5m

OT Menelik Watson - Saves $4.5m

New cap space - $45m

 

Retain: C Matt Paradis (2nd round tender), LB Shaq Barrett (2nd round tender), WR Bennie Fowler (UDFA tender), LB Todd Davis (1 year, $2m). Total cost $10m. New cap room $35m

 

Signings:

QB Kirk Cousins - 5 years, $150m, $90m guaranteed - new cap room $5m

- Well here it is. I think $30m AAV and the best part of $100m fully guaranteed is what it will take, and ultimately I think Elway pays it. I hope I'm wrong because I don't think you can win a championship when paying an average QB elite money and ultimately I think that's what Kirk Cousins is.

OT La'Adrian Waddle - 1 year, $5m fully guaranteed - new cap room $0.

- With the big splash on Cousins, Elway turns to the prove it deal for RT again. Patriots likely retain one of Waddle or Cameron Fleming, who rotated at RT in 2017. Fleming was the preferred man at the end of the year, so he probably stays, so Waddle could be available on the cheap. We're out of cap room, so I think Demaryius Thomas amongst a few others will restructure his deal to allow us to sign our rookie draft picks.

DRAFT

5. Quentin Nelson, Offensive Guard, Notre Dame

With the Cousins signing, the Broncos are into the same "win now" mode that dominated the Peyton Manning era. Nelson-Paradis-Leary gives us one of the better interior offensive lines in the league, and he might just be the safest plug-and-play pick in the draft.

 

40. Mike Gesicki, Tight End, Penn State

Another pickup to support the Cousins signing. Cousins was at his best with the Redskins when he had his safety blanket in Jordan Reed, so why not bring in another athletic tight end? It's too early to tell whether Jake Butt will ever provide much of a return whilst Jeff Heuerman has been very disappointing so I absolutely think a tight end pickup is an option.

 

71. Christian Campbell, Corner, Penn State

Back to Penn State again. Talib is gone, Roby is in a contract year and Elway won't want to just hand Langley a top-3 CB role without any competition. You can never have too many Corners.

 

99. Nick Chubb, Running Back, Georgia

With CJ Anderson being cut, I have to think we look for a bigger back to pair with quicker guys in Booker and Henderson.

 

Day Three

 

I'm neglecting to list any day three players as my knowledge of this draft barely stretches beyond the top 100, but purely in terms of what I think could be targeted:

 

WR: Thomas and Sanders probably in the closing days of their time in Denver now, could even see one of them being a TJ Ward like camp casualty, but Fowler and Taylor are probably career #4 and #5 wideouts so we need to inject some young talent.

OT: La'Adrian Waddle just on a prove it deal so young competition.

OLB: Like with the CB pickup, I think we'll want to add a young pass rusher with Ray and Barrett both in contract years.

 

Projected final 53:

QB: Kirk Cousins, Paxton Lynch, Chad Kelly

RB: Nick Chubb, Devontae Booker, DeAngelo Henderson

FB: Andy Janovich

WR: Demaryius Thomas, Bennie Fowler III

WR: Emmanuel Sanders, Jordan Taylor

Slot: Carlos Henderson

TE: Mike Gesicki, Jake Butt, Jeff Heuerman

LT: Garrett Bolles

LG: Quenton Nelson, Max Garcia

C: Matt Paradis, JJ Dielman

RG: Ron Leary, Connor McGovern

RT: La'Adrian Waddle, Cyrus Kouandjio

 

DE: Derek Wolfe, Adam Gotsis

NT: Domata Peko, Kyle Peko, Zach Kerr

DE: Shelby Harris, Demarcus Walker

OLB: Von Miller, Stansly Maponga

ILB: Brandon Marshall, Todd Davis

ILB: Zaire Anderson, Jerrol Garcia-Williams

OLB: Shane Ray, Shaq Barrett

CB: Chris Harris Jr, Brendan Langley

CB: Bradley Roby, Marcus Rios

Nickel: Christian Campbell

FS: Justin Simmons, Jamal Carter

SS: Darian Stewart, Will Parks

 

K: Brandon McManus 

P: Riley Dixon

LS: Casey Kreiter

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24 minutes ago, BowserBroncos said:

You just forgot that we need cap to sign the rookies....otherwise great mock

The rookie picks are well placed - but I think after his Combine Chubb will be a top 5 RB, maybe even the 3rd off the board after 1st rounders Barkley / Guice (mid-late).  He tested out with the 2nd highest SPARQ score at 89th percentile that’s going to bump up his stock in a big way. 

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17 hours ago, paul-mac said:

QB Kirk Cousins - 5 years, $150m, $90m guaranteed - new cap room $5m

- Well here it is. I think $30m AAV and the best part of $100m fully guaranteed is what it will take, and ultimately I think Elway pays it. I hope I'm wrong because I don't think you can win a championship when paying an average QB elite money and ultimately I think that's what Kirk Cousins is.

I fully understand the sentiment that paying Kirk Cousins an AAV of $30m might not be in the best long-term interest of the team but I really get tired of seeing him called "an average QB." Alex Smith is an average QB. Case Keenum is an average QB. Andy Dalton is an average QB. Kirk Cousins is better than average. He's not an elite QB. Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB. But Cousins resides that in "tier two" list of QBs - good enough to win a Super Bowl with a solid supporting cast and good coaching. 

It is an entirely reasonable position to take that paying what it figures to cost to land Cousins is a bad idea and prefer us to go in another direction, either another veteran or roll the dice with the No. 5 overall pick. I get that 100 percent and am sympathetic to that position. However, I think being be opposed to backing up the Brinks trucks for Cousins is causing some here to underrate him. 

But overall, Paul, very good job. 

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43 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I fully understand the sentiment that paying Kirk Cousins an AAV of $30m might not be in the best long-term interest of the team but I really get tired of seeing him called "an average QB." Alex Smith is an average QB. Case Keenum is an average QB. Andy Dalton is an average QB. Kirk Cousins is better than average. He's not an elite QB. Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB. But Cousins resides that in "tier two" list of QBs - good enough to win a Super Bowl with a solid supporting cast and good coaching. 

It is an entirely reasonable position to take that paying what it figures to cost to land Cousins is a bad idea and prefer us to go in another direction, either another veteran or roll the dice with the No. 5 overall pick. I get that 100 percent and am sympathetic to that position. However, I think being be opposed to backing up the Brinks trucks for Cousins is causing some here to underrate him. 

But overall, Paul, very good job. 

I just know he has great stats against top 10 defenses.  But when I watched the games it seemed like he did it in Garbage time.

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3 hours ago, brncos4life said:

cousins was top 3 last 5 years with rodgers Brady. hes,defenitly not average.   stat wise that is. he gets us to playoffs right away with our defense too.  just my opinion. I'm all in on cousins. 

 

What a load of garbage. This is absolutely not even close to being the case. At the very least, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan rank ahead of Kirk Cousins. Then you've got Carson Wentz who's 2017 season was better than Cousins has ever played. You also have to account for the young guys that we think will be better than Wentz going forward like Deshaun Watson, maybe Dak Prescott. 

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11 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

 

What a load of garbage. This is absolutely not even close to being the case. At the very least, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan rank ahead of Kirk Cousins. Then you've got Carson Wentz who's 2017 season was better than Cousins has ever played. You also have to account for the young guys that we think will be better than Wentz going forward like Deshaun Watson, maybe Dak Prescott. 

Cousins for sure wasn't 3rd - but keep in mind Brees was no longer the focus of their O, it was their OL and elite run game.   And Big Ben really had an off year.   Prescott showed a ton of warts with his OL no longer giving him 4+ sec clean pockets, too.   

Either way, though, 3rd is way too steep.  Wilson, Rivers, Ryan (although he wasn't a top 3 guy after being a top dog in 2016 - Shanahan effect), Wentz, Goff and yes, Brady all had better seasons for sure.   After that, it's an argument that can be made - and even more impressive with a bottom-10 OL performance, no WR's in the top 50, no top-30 TE's, and 1 RB as a top 10-RB receiving wise (but no top 40 rushers), who was done after Week 10.   

 And yes, you do have to project guys like Watson who will surge up.   Going forward, I don't know that Brees/Ben/Prescott would be ahead of him.  But there are other guys who likely keep taking a big jump forward too.   So I still see him as a hands-down top 10 guy going forward, but saying he's a top 3 last year is a bridge too far. 

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