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Should The NFL Implement A Draft Lottery System?


the lone star

Should The NFL Implement A Draft Lottery System?  

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  1. 1. Should The NFL Implement A Draft Lottery System?



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4 hours ago, the lone star said:

I think it happens, but teams are usually able to justify it by poor QB play or something.

So coaches and NFL players with constant low job security are going to willingly play like crap, so an owner can get his team a better position in the draft?

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4 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

As for reasoning behind it lessening tanking, logically there is LESS motivation to lose an extra game over a team with a similar record if it MIGHT get you a more coveted draft slot versus if losing the extra game was GUARANTEED to get you a more coveted draft spot. If there is one super elite prospect in a draft then two teams at the bottom have MORE motivation to lose games to secure a 100% chance of getting him in a no-lottery system versus getting a couple percentage points better chance at him in a lottery system. 

IDK why I had to explain that. That should be common sense.

You’re missing the point on why the lottery encourages tanking.  It doesn’t effect it looking by single game, it effects it on the season outlook.   Teams give up in the NBA, it’s easier to look passed with so many games and not showing them.  NFL is different.  

There would be less parity, less teams sneaking into the playoffs, and less of what makes the NFL more entertaining.

I guess I would rather watch two borderline playoffs teams fight for it, than a lottery show hosted by an awful commentator.

 

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6 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

It goes beyond that, really. Tanking is pretty much unheard of now, a lottery would just serve to create it.

Cowboys "tanked" in large part, because Romo and Dez got injured. Who were the players that could have taken them to the playoffs that were sitting on the bench, instead? 

Tanking has gotten so ridiculous in the NBA that it's become pretty clear their lottery system isn't helping matters at all, and in all likelihood is even serving to fuel the tanking it's supposed to prevent. 

Yeah, they weren't going to make playoffs, but the team wasn't inspired to do much, and even when they found decent fits for certain players (ex: Lance Dunbar), they seemingly went away from that for some reason.

I can see the argument that it inspires tanking, but I can also see the argument where it adds more risk to the teams that are tanking. They will not be guaranteed their position in the draft, making it riskier. Whereas an 8-8 team, or a 9-7 team will still have a shot at moving up several spots in the draft.

But the NFL does a good job of creating parity through their scheduling, contract structuring, and cap.

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Hell damn no. 

The lottery wouldn't dissuade people from tanking.  I really don't get the logic behind that.  From my understanding, the worst team has the best chance at getting the best pick in a lottery, right?  If a team has a crap roster and they're not going anywhere, they're still going to tank to get that top chance.  The only thing a lottery does is make teams consider tanking at the end of the season to get in that top ten chance at the lottery pick. 

Now instead of crap teams being the only teams tanking, towards the end of the year, if a team has won more than they should have, now you've got them tanking in addition to the crap teams.  Think about the year the Seahawks made it to the playoffs with a 7-9 record.  You think they wouldn't have tanked?  They probably would have regardless of the fact they got a playoff home game for more revenue.  If they wouldn't have, a fringe wildcard team with a poor roster sure might. 

The NFL needs to stop changing things and start reversing the changes they've already made. 

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9 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Hell damn no. 

The lottery wouldn't dissuade people from tanking.  I really don't get the logic behind that.  From my understanding, the worst team has the best chance at getting the best pick in a lottery, right?  If a team has a crap roster and they're not going anywhere, they're still going to tank to get that top chance.  The only thing a lottery does is make teams consider tanking at the end of the season to get in that top ten chance at the lottery pick. 

Now instead of crap teams being the only teams tanking, towards the end of the year, if a team has won more than they should have, now you've got them tanking in addition to the crap teams.  Think about the year the Seahawks made it to the playoffs with a 7-9 record.  You think they wouldn't have tanked?  They probably would have regardless of the fact they got a playoff home game for more revenue.  If they wouldn't have, a fringe wildcard team with a poor roster sure might. 

The NFL needs to stop changing things and start reversing the changes they've already made. 

Well, to be fair, some decent teams already do tank at the end of the year. The Cowboys beat the Eagles in week 17, but it was an ugly win. You'd have to say that it was more of a Philly loss than it was a Dallas win.

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Just now, the lone star said:

Well, to be fair, some decent teams already do tank at the end of the year. The Cowboys beat the Eagles in week 17, but it was an ugly win. You'd have to say that it was more of a Philly loss than it was a Dallas win.

No, that's not being fair though.  The Eagles had already clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. 

The Cowboys beating the Eagles is proof that teams aren't tanking at an incredible rate how things are right now. 

Look at the Bengals.  They had the 12th pick this year.   The Ravens were playing for a playoff spot.  Do you think the Bengals beat the Ravens and knock them out of the playoffs in the last week of the season if they had a chance at winning the lottery and going from 12th overall to 1st overall?  No way in hell. 

How it is now:

Bad teams may or may not tank to ensure a bad team's pick.

How it would be with a lottery system:

Bad teams AND okay teams may or may not tank to ensure having a chance at getting the first overall pick. 

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3 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

No, that's not being fair though.  The Eagles had already clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. 

The Cowboys beating the Eagles is proof that teams aren't tanking at an incredible rate how things are right now. 

Look at the Bengals.  They had the 12th pick this year.   The Ravens were playing for a playoff spot.  Do you think the Bengals beat the Ravens and knock them out of the playoffs in the last week of the season if they had a chance at winning the lottery and going from 12th overall to 1st overall?  No way in hell. 

How it is now:

Bad teams may or may not tank to ensure a bad team's pick.

How it would be with a lottery system:

Bad teams AND okay teams may or may not tank to ensure having a chance at getting the first overall pick. 

The Cowboys were TERRIBLE in that game man. Seriously, the Eagles handed it to them. That just goes to show that players and coaches will always have something to play for, but management didn't really care for the game. The team was really just trying to do a few things that game. 1.) Get young players some playing time 2.) Feed Dez so that he and Dak could get back on the same page and 3.) Experiment with some plays, schemes, and formations that they hadn't tried out already. That's why Chidobe and Jourdan Lewis got some good PT, same with Kavon Frazier, who was starting at safety for Byron Jones, who is way better in coverage.

Management was tanking in the sense that they weren't necessarily playing to win. If they were, then they would have gotten other players involved and/or go back to calling some of their favorite and most successful plays. Instead, they knew it was a meaningless game, so they just wanted to see what would happen. If JG's job wasn't safe, he probably would have played to win. They probably would have asked Dak to rush the ball a little since that's one of his strengths, but they wanted him to get some more throws in and protect him from injury since the season was over, so that's what the gameplan was.

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1. I dont think it happens nearly enough to warrant it like it does in the NBA

2. With a lottery system i think you see more 7-9 teams try and lose week 17 just to increase their shot of getting a better pick rather than try to play spoiler vs a division rival or whoever. I love seeing those games

3. As soon as the lottery would start then starts the conspiracy people that “the Packers won the lottery because they have Rodgers and everyone loves them its not fair...” NBA already appears rigged at times.

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33 minutes ago, the lone star said:

But I will say this, a lottery may help teams escape a few years of mediocrity.

However, I think another way to cure that is expand playoffs. But that's not happening because of the TV schedule.

A lottery might throw lesser teams farther into the pit of misery...dilly dilly

They all play a 16 game schedule, that’s enough. 6 in the playoffs is enough. We already have some years where crappy teams make it by winning their division or by just being less crappy than the rest of the WC contenders. Dont let half a conference in the playoffs

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Player career lifespans are so short and non guaranteed contracts pretty much make tanking a fan hope than actual reality. Plus you have coaches fighting for their jobs on bad teams. If tanking occurs it’s happening at a GM level.  

Honestly it’s hard to argue the bottom 5 teams weren’t the worst 5 teams that year (lack of talent, injury or coaching incompetence usually all factor in more than deliberate tanking).  The league has achieved parity through its current system.  If you change a system it’s to address a problem.  This isn’t a problem that needs fixing.   

 

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