NewAge Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 This is the thread where we talk about Justin Smoak. Justin Smoak was absurdly good at South Carolina and on the Cape in his college years. He hit .286/.382/.565 with 11 homers on the Cape as a freshman! Juiced bats and all, he hit 62 homers in three years at South Carolina. However, for the first seven years of his major league career, he sucked. Through 7 years, 824 games, and 2887 PAs, he had 0.2 WAR and a 95 wRC+. His career line was .223/.308/.392 and in 2016 he struck out 32.8% of the time. Now, suddenly at age 30, the Justin Smoak everyone has been waiting nearly a decade for is here. He's hitting .304/.382/.602 with a 158 wRC+ and .409 wOBA. He has 31 homers already (only three behind Judge) and his K rate has gone from 32.8% to 19.4%. There are some theories out there but I really want to know why Justin Smoak is suddenly who he was always supposed to be. Please @ me with your ideas/theories/opinions on Smoak. Relevant links: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-is-urgent-need-for-a-justin-smoak-article/ http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/24/the-new-and-improved-justin-smoak-is-here-to-stay/?utm_content=buffer53357&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Jesse Winker has 7 HR in almost 800 PA in AAA over the last 2 years (His power has been less since dealing with wrist injuries, he did hit 13 in a pitcher friendly park in AA in about 400 PA). We call him up this week and he has 2 in 2 games, and is all of a sudden hitting 420 foot bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewAge Posted August 4, 2017 Author Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 minute ago, THE DUKE said: Jesse Winker has 7 HR in almost 800 PA in AAA over the last 2 years (His power has been less since dealing with wrist injuries, he did hit 13 in a pitcher friendly park in AA in about 400 PA). We call him up this week and he has 2 in 2 games, and is all of a sudden hitting 420 foot bombs. It's deeper than that with Smoak. The juiced ball doesn't nearly halve your K rate and while it does increase HR numbers it doesn't do so by THIS much. The ball was juiced for a year and a half before this year and Smoak wasn't exactly doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsGuy82 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 I think for the first time in his career he is getting regular, consistent AB's with EE leaving. I think this has enabled him to get into a groove at the plate and a routine in preparation rather than a spot start every week or so, coming off the bench every few games not really knowing your place. Alot of the pundits up here in Canada feel his resurrection is similar to Jose Bautista's arrival in Toronto and I think this isn't just a 1 season mirage. I think he can duplicate success with maybe a slight statistical decline going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DalCowboyzRule Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Always like to see former Rangers do well except for against us, so I'm happy for Justin. He was soooo hyped for us in the minors. I thought he was going to be Mark Teixeira 2.0 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redsoxsuck05 Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 8 hours ago, THE DUKE said: Jesse Winker has 7 HR in almost 800 PA in AAA over the last 2 years (His power has been less since dealing with wrist injuries, he did hit 13 in a pitcher friendly park in AA in about 400 PA). We call him up this week and he has 2 in 2 games, and is all of a sudden hitting 420 foot bombs. Dude that's such lazy analysis. Every player plays with the juiced ball yet Smoak's stats relative to the league have skyrocketed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 He's just a late bloomer. We've seen it plenty. Guys like Ryan Ludwick, Jose Batista, etc. I really think it's that simple... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewAge Posted August 7, 2017 Author Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/5/2017 at 9:45 AM, kgarrett12486 said: He's just a late bloomer. We've seen it plenty. Guys like Ryan Ludwick, Jose Batista, etc. I really think it's that simple... Jose Bautista is a very interesting test case. Also interesting to note that a lot of these breakouts happen in Toronto. Bautista, Encarnacion, Smoak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, NewAge said: Jose Bautista is a very interesting test case. Also interesting to note that a lot of these breakouts happen in Toronto. Bautista, Encarnacion, Smoak. Bautista, though, had a clear reason because he completely changed his swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsGuy82 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 2 hours ago, NewAge said: Jose Bautista is a very interesting test case. Also interesting to note that a lot of these breakouts happen in Toronto. Bautista, Encarnacion, Smoak. All 3 of these guys came and received 500 AB's almost immediately. You would have to think coming to the park everyday knowing you're in the lineup and in Bautista case knowing what position you're playing is the factor. How can you get your timing down at the plate when you're shuffled in and out of the lineup ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsGuy82 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 I don't think it's purely a coincidence all 3 guys come to Toronto and flourished when all 3 came over as platoon/utility players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 I'm not sure I totally buy him, if he starts the year off strong next year maybe. But he's not the first one year wonder we've had. Tommy Pham is putting up big numbers for St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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