Why Josh Rosen Isn’t the Quarterback You Think He Is

[Da_Ducktator]

Also, since I know some people have brought up how Cosell labeled Rosen his QB1, here is his report on him.

Interestingly enough, Cosell discusses Rosen's arm talent saying, "Overall not a drive thrower with some questions about velocity when demanded," which is something I highlighted.

Reading over Cosell's report, honestly, I don't see a ton of differences between what him and I said. He clearly thinks though that Rosen can overcome an average arm and "too many reckless and ill-advised throws" whereas I don't think that is something he can overcome. Rosen continuously gets compared to the likes or Eli Manning and Matt Ryan and I believe both had stronger arms than Rosen does. Ryan's main concern was too much "hero ball" and bad decisions coming out of Boston College as he was trying to carry a lousy BC team to wins. Rosen though has arm talent concerns and struggles when the structure of plays falls apart. I do not believe that the holes he has shown in handling pressure, inefficiency on 3rd down and in the red zone, and struggles in decision-making are things he can overcome when you couple it with an average arm.

Rosen is a smooth-looking pocket passer with fluid mechanics and a nice set-up when everything goes right. I don't believe he has the raw talent to overcome his other deficiencies and be a "franchise QB" in the chaotic world that is the NFL when succeeding when under pressure and plays breaking down is largely what separates the great quarterbacks from the rest.

[Chwf3rd25]

1 hour ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Also, since I know some people have brought up how Cosell labeled Rosen his QB1, here is his report on him.

Interestingly enough, Cosell discusses Rosen's arm talent saying, "Overall not a drive thrower with some questions about velocity when demanded," which is something I highlighted.

Reading over Cosell's report, honestly, I don't see a ton of differences between what him and I said. He clearly thinks though that Rosen can overcome an average arm and "too many reckless and ill-advised throws" whereas I don't think that is something he can overcome. Rosen continuously gets compared to the likes or Eli Manning and Matt Ryan and I believe both had stronger arms than Rosen does. Ryan's main concern was too much "hero ball" and bad decisions coming out of Boston College as he was trying to carry a lousy BC team to wins. Rosen though has arm talent concerns and struggles when the structure of plays falls apart. I do not believe that the holes he has shown in handling pressure, inefficiency on 3rd down and in the red zone, and struggles in decision-making are things he can overcome when you couple it with an average arm.

Rosen is a smooth-looking pocket passer with fluid mechanics and a nice set-up when everything goes right. I don't believe he has the raw talent to overcome his other deficiencies and be a "franchise QB" in the chaotic world that is the NFL when succeeding when under pressure and plays breaking down is largely what separates the great quarterbacks from the rest.

I would read his write up on Rosen from his yahoo article as he shows lots of counter examples to the clips that you’re pulling up.  I linked to it on the previous page.

[Da_Ducktator]

2 hours ago, Chwf3rd25 said:

I would read his write up on Rosen from his yahoo article as he shows lots of counter examples to the clips that you’re pulling up.  I linked to it on the previous page.

The first play could still easily fall into what I talked about with believing a lot of Rosen's "progressions" are pre-built into the play. That happened to be one of the cases where it went right. Even the second play, he looks one way, turns and fires the other way. For being such an "advanced" passer as people try to credit Rosen for, I rarely see him going to a third and fourth target on a play. I think with the ill-advised throws that Rosen has shown, again, looking one way and then blindly firing it to another target, that a lot of his "progressions" are built into the play and he has trouble adjusting when that play isn't there (he'll either just throw it anyways or panics and is forced off his launch point which in Rosen's case, leads to a sack or incompletion more than 50 percent of the time).

The last two plays are solid, I'll give him that, and are plays of him throwing on the move. But, Rosen has sub 50 completion percentage when asked to throw on the move and I've seen more bad than good from him in the regard.

Again, to each there own. I'm trying to point out the flaws I see in Rosen. And I'm not saying you said it, but earlier in this thread as well as on Twitter, I got ripped by some people for questioning Rosen's arm talent, and now in back-to-back days, there has been a report Rosen may fall outside of the top five because teams are worried about his ceiling in regards to his physical abilities and then a well-respected evaluator noted that there are concerns with Rosen's velocity. 

[Chwf3rd25]

1 hour ago, Da_Ducktator said:

The first play could still easily fall into what I talked about with believing a lot of Rosen's "progressions" are pre-built into the play. That happened to be one of the cases where it went right. Even the second play, he looks one way, turns and fires the other way. For being such an "advanced" passer as people try to credit Rosen for, I rarely see him going to a third and fourth target on a play. I think with the ill-advised throws that Rosen has shown, again, looking one way and then blindly firing it to another target, that a lot of his "progressions" are built into the play and he has trouble adjusting when that play isn't there (he'll either just throw it anyways or panics and is forced off his launch point which in Rosen's case, leads to a sack or incompletion more than 50 percent of the time).

The last two plays are solid, I'll give him that, and are plays of him throwing on the move. But, Rosen has sub 50 completion percentage when asked to throw on the move and I've seen more good than bad from him in the regard.

Again, to each there own. I'm trying to point out the flaws I see in Rosen. And I'm not saying you said it, but earlier in this thread as well as on Twitter, I got ripped by some people for questioning Rosen's arm talent, and now in back-to-back days, there has been a report Rosen may fall outside of the top five because teams are worried about his ceiling in regards to his physical abilities and then a well-respected evaluator noted that there are concerns with Rosen's velocity. 

Ya I really appreciate your well thought out criticism of him and the fact that it doesn’t involve saying “he’s rich, spoiled, from SoCal, parents went to Ivy League schools, didn’t grow up on a farm like Allen, etc.”

[Kip Smithers]

@Da_Ducktator your issue with your evaluation is that one you could provide a number of instances to show Rosen doing very well post snap. So he’s at least inconsistent in that aspect, not incapable. He’s still a young player, he ain’t 7 year Vet in the league.

The first play is not a big deal at all. Coordinators run the same quite regularly, because it worked before. That’s the point. They go back to plays that worked previously expecting the same result. So that’s not even on Rosen. 

On another play you referenced it’s 2nd and 15 down 10. Maybe he was looking for the big play and also it’s not his fault the receiver gets tangled up thats why he wasn’t open. Fumbling is the biggest issue there. 

You point it as a trend in his game when it’s just an inconsistency in his game, which can be improved. 

this brief video shows him doing a good job post snap...

[Chargers]

On 4/18/2018 at 1:09 PM, Da_Ducktator said:

Once again, an ugly grouping for Rosen to be apart of. 

I think its safe to say he'll be better than Christian "never seeing the field" Hackenberg and 17 passing touchdowns in his career Tim Tebow

[Da_Ducktator]

14 hours ago, Kip Smithers said:

@Da_Ducktator your issue with your evaluation is that one you could provide a number of instances to show Rosen doing very well post snap. So he’s at least inconsistent in that aspect, not incapable. He’s still a young player, he ain’t 7 year Vet in the league.

The first play is not a big deal at all. Coordinators run the same quite regularly, because it worked before. That’s the point. They go back to plays that worked previously expecting the same result. So that’s not even on Rosen. 

On another play you referenced it’s 2nd and 15 down 10. Maybe he was looking for the big play and also it’s not his fault the receiver gets tangled up thats why he wasn’t open. Fumbling is the biggest issue there. 

You point it as a trend in his game when it’s just an inconsistency in his game, which can be improved. 

this brief video shows him doing a good job post snap...

I think this video shows the good Rosen can do when everything goes perfectly. Notice how on each of those plays, he has a pocket to throw from and his receivers get open according to the plan of the play. The first play has a delayed blitz from the CB that was poorly executed, so Rosen would of had to hold onto the ball forever in order to make an impact. The others are all four-man rushes. Also, that video had two plays showing the same concept and I provided more plays than that 

[Da_Ducktator]

10 hours ago, Classic said:

I think its safe to say he'll be better than Christian "never seeing the field" Hackenberg and 17 passing touchdowns in his career Tim Tebow

Certainly, but that's not really the point. Rosen is hyped as this ultra-polished, safe quarterback prospect but in two key areas he falls into bad groupings (sub 160 QB Rating in the RZ - six other top two round QB's and all failed in the NFL; Sub 37% 3rd down conversion rate that only one of 14 QB's drafted in the first four rounds became successful) and you couple that with an average arm and struggles against pressure, Rosen doesn't look destined to be a prominent QB in the league. The hype he gets as a top 5 player overall by some, he is going to have to overcome a lot of concerning negatives in order to be a Pro Bowl caliber player (which if I'm drafting somebody top 5, that's what I am aiming for). I would rather believe in a guy who checks more boxes than Rosen because at this rate, he'll be outlier if he is successful in the NFL. You don't want to bet on finding outliers if you're a GM.

[Shanedorf]

This snippet on Rosen is from Bob McGinn's annual draft piece, including comments from scouts and personnel guys

 

JOSH ROSEN, UCLA (6-4, 221, 4.91, 1): Widely regarded as the best pure passer in the draft. “Rosen is as classic a passer as you could have,” one scout said. “His mechanics are impeccable. He’s got arm strength. He reads the field. Whether he’s the leader or not is the question.” Completed 60.9% of 1,170 passes for a rating of 93.6. “He looks the part when he throws the ball but lacks the rest of the assets you need to be a winning quarterback up here,” another scout said. “Off the field he doesn’t have the profile you want for someone leading your team.

If everything’s clean and he can just sit back and throw it, he looks good. If it’s not, he’s not very effective. In the NFL, things aren’t clean. Against pressure he’s not very good. He’s been hurt. Those are big concerns.” Missed half the ’16 season because of a right shoulder injury that required surgery. Missed two games last year with two separate concussions.

“He’s the best pure passer I’ve seen since Drew Brees,” another scout said. “Only thing that worries me is his body. He’s slightly built and he gets hurt. He also has not improved since his freshman year. When he was a freshman the guy was fantastic.”

According to one scout, one of Rosen’s former coaches at UCLA told him Rosen was three things: smart, talented and spoiled. “Football’s not his life,” the scout said. “He doesn’t go around with the guys. If Rosen’s mentally into the game and dedicated he certainly has the mechanics and accuracy.” The Bruins went 17-13 with Rosen as the starter. Two scouts compared his abrasive attitude to Aaron Rodgers coming out of Cal. “He’s a smart ***,” said one. “He’s probably smarter than the quarterback coach. You have to challenge him intellectually. He’s worldly. He’s got a lot of things he wants to do in life.”

[Da_Ducktator]

23 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

If everything’s clean and he can just sit back and throw it, he looks good. If it’s not, he’s not very effective. In the NFL, things aren’t clean. Against pressure he’s not very good. He’s been hurt. Those are big concerns.” Missed half the ’16 season because of a right shoulder injury that required surgery. Missed two games last year with two separate concussions.

These are the big things I have been harping. When the structure of the play breaks down, Rosen breaks down. Easier to get away with when you play only one team that ranks in the top 80 in pass defense in the entire nation (and that Washington game was a below average performance for him) than in the NFL.

[goldfishwars]

27 minutes ago, Da_Ducktator said:

These are the big things I have been harping. When the structure of the play breaks down, Rosen breaks down. Easier to get away with when you play only one team that ranks in the top 80 in pass defense in the entire nation (and that Washington game was a below average performance for him) than in the NFL.

You could apply that criticism to Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. It's a valid criticism, but those who like him will point to everything else he brings to the table (the diagnosing pre-snap, the consistency in his footwork and mechanics) that helps minimise plays breaking down in the first place. The margin for error is lower for Rosen, so other aspects have to be close to perfect. How much you like him depends on whether you think he can consistently rise to that challenge. 

[DirtyDez]

Leinart vibes with Rosen.

 

[Da_Ducktator]

I am not a fan of being 'I told ya so' guy, but I wanted to re-bump this upon us nearing the conclusion of our rookie season and these numbers:

 

Rosen may go down as having one of the absolute worst, if not the worst, rookie seasons for a QB in NFL history. The last three games, he is averaging just 173.6 YPG  with no TD's, 3 INT's, and a pair of pick 6's.

 

Things could change, but this is the exact situation I was worried about Rosen walking into. I am still floored to this day that my criticisms of Rosen were not more widespread. His inability to perform off script and his clear drop in arm talent when forced to throw off platform or on the move were glaring to me, and being in Arizona with subpar weapons and a bad O-Line were an awful landing place for Rosen.

[Chrissooner49er]

And what about Baker Mayfield? I saw previously you weren't big on him, yet he is obviously the best of the rookie QB, thus far. You knocked him for his 'attitude', yet it appears he may be exactly what Cleveland needed--including the attitude.

Just curious.

[Forge]

We don't bump for I told you so's.