Y2's 2018 Mock Draft

[y2lamanaki]

I wanted to make sure I got one of these up before the draft, but close enough where I could try and see more of how this draft might go down. But everything is all over the place this year and it didn’t help much. I have no idea how even the first overall pick is going to go down. It’s gonna be a fun draft.

Because of the uncertainty, I have no idea how our first pick is going to go, which means that it’s hard to predict what any of the future rounds might contain. The first pick might be WR, RB, OL, EDGE, LB, or DB. For some of those groups, the second pick might also be the same thing, or it could be one of those other positions. So...it’s gonna be a really fun draft.

I used Walter Football’s most recent mock as a basis for who was available. I don’t think that he’s particularly accurate or even that great of an analyst, but it’s probably the best of the long mocks, and it’s as good as anything to give me a reason why I didn’t pick someone or why I could have picked someone as late as I did.

The first notable thing that happens in Walter’s mock when the pick gets to us is that Josh Rosen is available. So I offer two mocks – one where Rosen is just going to be the Aaron Rodgers type QB that falls deep into the first round (meaning nobody wanted to trade up to #9) – and one where New England, rumored to be enamored with Rosen, trade up to select the heir apparent to Brady. That’s been an obvious rumor in mocks, and while I’d like to be different, I feel like it would make enough sense given Brady’s age and the rumors of that empire beginning to crack.

STAYING AT #9 MOCK:

1) Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia             

          

Assuming no trade first and foremost, the goal here is to pick up the best possible player who fits on the team. With Edmunds off the board at #8, this becomes even easier of a choice for me. Here’s a guy who can take over for Foster during an eventual suspension or long-term if Foster is released. If not, here’s a guy who can play alongside him on the weak side. I’m not sure we ever see Smith called as the team was really high on Malcolm Smith. But...they were really high on Kilgore, too. Sometimes, who is available dictates how things go.

2) Connor Williams, OL, Texas

If Connor Williams is available at this spot, then I am in total agreement with Walter – we need to draft him. I once thought of him as a longshot option at #9, or with a small trade back. I think he’s become underrated as the process has continued. He has a ton of talent, and we can enter him into the starting G competition right away. Long-term, we might be able to kick him out to either tackle as a replacement for Staley after retirement or Brown after we don’t re-sign him (which looks more and more likely – a good young tackle is the type of guy who gets a second contract ASAP if you plan on keeping him around).

3a) Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, EDGE, Oklahoma

I don’t know that he’ll ever be a great pass rusher, but he’s one of the best available in the draft, and one of the few that intrigues me even a little. I don’t like many of the players left on the board in this area of the draft. So I go with the best available player at a position of need.

3b) Carlton Davis, CB, Auburn

I really liked watching Carlton Davis this year. He’s one of the prospects I’ve kept an eye on since Week 1 of the college football season, and with no defensive backs drafted yet and with no other players that really intrigue me (other than guys at linebacker, which I no longer need in this draft), I’m going with Davis.

4) Simmie Cobbs, Jr., WR, Indiana

 

If you were expecting me to ignore him, you have not been paying attention to me since September. That’s fine. I’ve been following the trends and see him sinking further and further in mocks. This is absurd. He had a lousy QB situation, and he made plays regardless of the opponent, and he still didn’t even look as healthy as he did in 2015. I think he’s the steal of the 2018 draft, and I’m sticking with him. I do not chance him lasting to our 5th round pick. He was a strong consideration for me in the 3rd, too. (Poor Simmie did not have a great .gif selection)

5) Troy Fumagalli, TE, Wisconsin

Fumagalli is one of the top guys I want to target once the 5th round gets under way (and if he’s still available). However, in this mock, Michael Gallup goes one pick before us and that is super enticing to me (might be a situation where I’d trade up to grab him). However, I’m keeping things as simple as possible. Fumagalli can be an excellent addition to the TE rotation with solid blocking skills.

6) David Bright, OL, Stanford (#64)

I might be shocked if we don’t double dip on the line in the draft given how big of a need it was entering the offseason, and given that we traded Kilgore already. He won’t likely push for a starting role, but he can help push Beadles off the roster (and compete with Magnuson for an interior role on gamedays). I like that he has experience making line calls for this reason.

7a) Ito Smith, RB, Southern Miss

This is a guy who seems to be falling as the draft process continues, and I’m not sure I understand it. I think he can be a very good back, and I’m fine with picking him up here in the 7th to compete with Joe Williams for a spot. My favorite late round back is another guy (see below), but he’s gone by the time the 7th starts.

7b) Peter Kalambayi, LB, Stanford

I wanted to get another linebacker in the draft who might be able to play on the strong side, and I think Kalambayi fits the bill really well. He’s also my BPA at this point that Walter didn’t select (he didn’t do a 7th round in the mock), so he ends up being the choice. Probably won’t ever play in 2018 and is a longshot to make the initial roster, but I think he’s someone that has potential to stick around on the practice squad.

PATRIOTS TRADE #23 & #32 OVERALL TO THE 49ERS FOR #9 OVERALL:

1a) Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College

I understand this pick at #9. I really like this pick at #23. I didn’t expect to see Landry so far down in this mock, and actually went in with the idea that if Rosen was available I’d make this trade with New England. This seems like a best-case scenario similar to picking up Foster at #31 last year (although, hopefully with less troubles). A second first right around the corner after this and a big need filled with the first pick. Landry has some good technique and excellent 2016 film. Let’s hope that’s the Landry we get.

1b) Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado

Like many on the board, I’m very intrigued by Oliver, and I love the idea of a long-time pairing of he and Witherspoon on the outside with both getting to learn from Sherman for the year. I like both Williams and Ward in the slot a lot, but having a lot of good defensive backs is not a bad thing. I don’t want a situation to come around like we had last year. At this point in the draft, Oliver is my 2nd best player available behind Guice, but I don’t want a first round RB, especially with McKinnon/Breida being a duo I think of as very capable.

2) Connor Williams, OL, Texas

See above. At #59, the talent is too much to overlook at a need position.

3a) Josey Jewell, LB, Iowa

He’s available at the 2nd of our two picks, but I tried not to be biased by that. I know I need a LB, and Jewell is the only guy remaining on the board that I think might be able to start right away and play very well. I don’t risk losing him to a trade up from someone recognizing the same “only guy left” and our need. So I take him here. I think he’s solely a middle guy, but Foster can easily slide over to WILL if he’s here long-term. If not, I’m pretty happy with his permanent replacement here.

3b) Frank Ragnow, OL, Arkansas

This ended up as a luxury pick, because I already knew who I intended to target in the 4th, and I fulfilled the biggest needs I felt we absolutely needed to address in the draft. So with the extra pick (thanks to the New England trade landing us 2 firsts instead of 1), I choose to go with a 2nd OL. He can be entered into the competition at G, and can be a good backup option along the interior. Protecting Jimmy is like...super important to my overall strategy, too. (Ragnow is the pulling guard that looks like he's about to get pancaked, but completely holds the block)

4) Simmie Cobbs, Jr., WR, Indiana

See above. I’ll add in that he should be an excellent red zone threat, which is the main thing we still need.

5) Troy Fumagalli, TE, Wisconsin

Once again, see above. Still love the fit.

6) Chase Edmonds, RB, Fordham

A local kid (to me) I really liked is available, and he appears to fit what we look for in a RB. His biggest problem is vision, which is typically the opposite of what I like in RBs. But I think our coaching staff can help him develop that. In any case, I don’t need much more than depth out of him as a runner. Someone who can compete with Joe Williams for the #3 role. And, because of the extra pick in this trade down version of my mock, I no longer need a 2nd lineman in this draft. Luxury pick.

7a) Peter Kalambayi, LB, Stanford

BPA is always the best way to go when you hit these really late rounds, and second on my board entering the 7th (behind Ito Smith, who I do not need in this version of the draft). With a bit of added strength (something a 7th round pick will have the luxury of acquiring on the practice squad, likely), I think he could be a future starter at the SAM spot, which makes him something of a need as well.

7b) Kyle Allen, QB, Houston

Just a guess here. I’ve addressed every position I really wanted to address at this point and I’m particularly intrigued. And, I’m not in need of him to do anything more than compete with Mullens for that practice squad QB role right away, so I’m happy here. 

[oldman9er]

I'd be happy with either of these scenarios, y2. Well done.   

[StevenK]

If I had to choose, I would go with option 2, but I think either draft would be successful! Great job by the way!

[J-ALL-DAY]

I see you like some of the same prospects I like. Good stuff. 

[Chrissooner49er]

If either of these came true, I would be ecstatic! You even have Obo in there...and Fumagalli in both! I like Fumagalli. And plenty of Stanford guys! 

[oldman9er]

Oh, and I see you have Ragnow as a 3rd rounder in your one mock... 

If that actually happened? I'd be beyond ecstatic. I thought I was bold and optimistic for giving Washington Rags at pick 44. I have been reading 1st rounder lately, and from what I watch, wouldn't really bat an eye. 

 

[y2lamanaki]

9 hours ago, oldman9er said:

Oh, and I see you have Ragnow as a 3rd rounder in your one mock... 

If that actually happened? I'd be beyond ecstatic. I thought I was bold and optimistic for giving Washington Rags at pick 44. I have been reading 1st rounder lately, and from what I watch, wouldn't really bat an eye. 

 

I thought it was also odd to see him (and Williams for that matter) so low as well. I don't see a finished enough prospect for a first round pick, but I think he'll ultimate get picked early on Day 2. But with this draft? Who knows. I don't know that I will be shocked by much.

[oldman9er]

2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

I thought it was also odd to see him (and Williams for that matter) so low as well. I don't see a finished enough prospect for a first round pick, but I think he'll ultimate get picked early on Day 2. But with this draft? Who knows. I don't know that I will be shocked by much.

True that. Hard to imagine that many IOL going so early, though so many people are predicting just that. It will be very interesting.. even amusing.. to see where Daniels, Hernandez, Price, Rags, and Corbett ends up being taken. 

[big9erfan]

I like both. I too thought early on that Williams was a candidate for top 10. Hard to see him falling to near the bottom of the second.  Also hard to see Davis falling into the third. But if they're there then the first one is a fantastic draft. I think I prefer the second just because I like the idea of filling two holes with one pick, especially when one of the two picks gets us one of the two best edge rushers in this draft. In both drafts I love the middle round guys you chose. They would all be fantastic pickups at that spot.

[John232]

Love it. Love them. Love you. 

[rudyZ]

3 hours ago, John232 said:

Love it. Love them. Love you. 

You took it too far.