2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)

[Forge]

2 hours ago, rudyZ said:

I have no problem with that in theory. But I'd feel much better if we had a deal in place to trade a Thomas and/or Armstead first. If you have too many prospects getting too few reps, no one is going to develop properly. So the superior talent you've taken will end up not living up to his promise. That's why I was more than okay with picking McGlinchey last year, because it was clear that Brown could be traded (and a second rounder was pretty good value). You don't want to create a logjam, because that doesn't benefits the team fully. Having Williams, Buck, Thomas, Armstead and perhaps a guy like Sheldon Day all vying for 1.5 spots on the DL is not an efficient allocation of resources, because in all likelihood, one of Thomas, Armstead and perhaps even Williams will never reach his full potential, due to lack of playing time. But if you get something for Thomas, Armstead can be depth for one year and be let go, or re-signed at a much lower price tag to be a back-up, and you keep Day for depth, now go ahead and get Williams. But if you don't get great value for Thomas, or if you think his development is going well and he'll take another step forward next year, trade down, let another team draft Williams, get an edge rusher further down, play Thomas, keep Day for depth, and use the extra draft capital you got to further improve the team, maybe to move back up into the back of the first.

I don't think a trade is necessary. I mean, we aren't even sure that Armstead is going to be on the roster at this point. He's a nice player for what he does, but he's not worth 9+ million, so the team could easily send that off. I'm also not sure that Day is a part of this team next year. He started out pretty well, but by the end of the season, he was getting the healthy scratch treatment. His roster spot is certainly not guaranteed with Street coming off IR, Taylor, etc. It wouldn't really be the craziest thing to have something like this if drafting Williams: 

5 - Tech (Thomas / Blair / Street)

3T - (Buck / Q Williams / Thomas / Taylor)

1T - (Q Williams / DJ Jones)

LEO - (FA or 2nd round pick / Marsh or whomever)

I don't think that's really a "logjam". Its similar to how it set up this year, just with different people. Taylor and Street may be nice depth pieces for the rotation, but we aren't going to complain if they don't get snaps. In that scenario, you really don't have to unload Thomas at all. He would be a depth and rotational piece at various positions (big end on run downs, interior on pass rushing downs spelling Buck / Williams). Blair would be the pass rushing big end. Yes, at that point you're basically committing to Solly as being nothing more than a rotational guy, but honestly, I'm not sure what kind of value he has anyway. I mean, if I'm only going to get like a 5th round pick for him, or even a 4, I really don't care about trading him anyway. 

 

[757-NINER]

1 hour ago, John232 said:

My biggest issue with picking Williams has less to do with Williams, but just a matter of redundancy. Our army of 3 tech's are all solid, then in Buck we have an elite one.  And in picking Williams, I'm concerned that our FO won't move one of our 40 3/5 techs. Something they should have done when they drafted Thomas...(or not draft him at all). If we can Move Thomas for a third round pick and late round pick, I do it. Same with Armstead. I'd prefer to move Armstead though. But point is, we need to figure this out and picking up one FA + Williams isn't enough and it shouldn't be ok with fans. If you Pick Williams, it has to be because you grabbed both Brandaon Graham and Z. Smith, oro Ansah...Aand even with those guys picked, you better still be drafting an edge in the first 3 rounds. 

Any failure to seriously address the edge this off-season should be considered an abject failure and a borderline fireable offense for Lynch, assuming they role with the same exact talent level again at ed

I can almost guarantee, if we were to draft Williams, Armstead would get dealt. Granted his cap hit may not warrant the production, but some 3-4 I think would love to have his upside for a year, before he hits free agency in 2020. And if he prefroms well, in a scheme more suited to his skill-set, the more likely he gets to see a big payday so I think it would be a win for both parties. 

[John232]

I think a long term outlook, paying two elite DT's, though a nice problem to have, is also a lot of money allocated to one position. Another aspect of drafting Williams. I know that sort of falls under the "Cross the bridge when we get to it" problem. But, something I'm sure FO's think about with top 5 picks. 

[757-NINER]

15 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't think a trade is necessary. I mean, we aren't even sure that Armstead is going to be on the roster at this point. He's a nice player for what he does, but he's not worth 9+ million, so the team could easily send that off. I'm also not sure that Day is a part of this team next year. He started out pretty well, but by the end of the season, he was getting the healthy scratch treatment. His roster spot is certainly not guaranteed with Street coming off IR, Taylor, etc. It wouldn't really be the craziest thing to have something like this if drafting Williams: 

5 - Tech (Thomas / Blair / Street)

3T - (Buck / Q Williams / Thomas / Taylor)

1T - (Q Williams / DJ Jones)

LEO - (FA or 2nd round pick / Marsh or whomever)

I don't think that's really a "logjam". Its similar to how it set up this year, just with different people. Taylor and Street may be nice depth pieces for the rotation, but we aren't going to complain if they don't get snaps. In that scenario, you really don't have to unload Thomas at all. He would be a depth and rotational piece at various positions (big end on run downs, interior on pass rushing downs spelling Buck / Williams). Blair would be the pass rushing big end. Yes, at that point you're basically committing to Solly as being nothing more than a rotational guy, but honestly, I'm not sure what kind of value he has anyway. I mean, if I'm only going to get like a 5th round pick for him, or even a 4, I really don't care about trading him anyway. 

 

I was about to say the same thing. Guys like Day are not guaranteed roster spots in 2019. They'll have to beat out guys like Street and Taylor if Williams was drafted or not. And none of these guys are talent enough where you say we're set@D-Line. Now we may disagree with Armstead. I think there would definitely be a market for him for say a mid round pick. And that 9 million coming off the books in a year isn't that bad for a competent starter with upside. Especially to a team switching to a 3-4 like a Tampa Bay. Even if you get a 6th or 7th rounder, I'd be fine with that as I don't see him in our long-term plans even if Williams goes elsewhere. I wouldn't keep him around just for the comp pick. 

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, John232 said:

I think a long term outlook, paying two elite DT's, though a nice problem to have, is also a lot of money allocated to one position. Another aspect of drafting Williams. I know that sort of falls under the "Cross the bridge when we get to it" problem. But, something I'm sure FO's think about with top 5 picks. 

It really just falls under the evaluation you have on them. If you have Williams that far ahead of Allen (assuming Bosa is gone), for whatever reason, then I think you have to take Williams. If you have them graded very similarly, then I think it's fine to bypass Williams for Allen. Unfortunately, that's going to be entirely on the FO because everyone is going to have a different opinion on that. 

It's like, some people have Williams rated higher than Bosa, but nobody is going to complain if we were to take Bosa instead because he fills the need and their ratings as prospects can't be that drastically different. I don't know of anyone who has Williams rated that much higher than Bosa that they would be in completely separate tiers or whatever. I don't know everyone's board, of course, but just from what I have seen. So you fill a need and don't take that big of a haircut on the actual BPA. When you get to Williams v Allen though, some people may have a much bigger difference between those two, and the need doesn't justify the difference in bpa. Not everyone has Allen rated as the #3 guy in this draft, and as I said, some people actually rate Williams as #1 overall. So if you rate Allen #8 but Williams #1, that's a pretty big disparity. If that happens to be how the 49ers have them ranked, you could really question the decision to reach need over BPA

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

I was about to say the same thing. Guys like Day are not guaranteed roster spots in 2019. They'll have to beat out guys like Street and Taylor if Williams was drafted or not. And none of these guys are talent enough where you say we're set@D-Line. Now we may disagree with Armstead. I think there would definitely be a market for him for say a mid round pick. And that 9 million coming off the books in a year isn't that bad for a competent starter with upside. Especially to a team switching to a 3-4 like a Tampa Bay. Even if you get a 6th or 7th rounder, I'd be fine with that as I don't see him in our long-term plans even if Williams goes elsewhere. I wouldn't keep him around just for the comp pick. 

For sure. And teams can always extend him. Not like they are a lock to play him on that cap hit. His value still isn't going to be great, but I wouldn't completely shut the door on a possible trade. Besides, it's not like that cap hit is completely egregious either. Outside of one year, Vinny Curry has largely been a similar type player. A few sacks here and there, etc. He signed 3/27 last year (really 1 / 6.5), so it's not that big of a difference. 

[Chrissooner49er]

1 hour ago, 757-NINER said:

I was about to say the same thing. Guys like Day are not guaranteed roster spots in 2019. They'll have to beat out guys like Street and Taylor if Williams was drafted or not. And none of these guys are talent enough where you say we're set@D-Line. Now we may disagree with Armstead. I think there would definitely be a market for him for say a mid round pick. And that 9 million coming off the books in a year isn't that bad for a competent starter with upside. Especially to a team switching to a 3-4 like a Tampa Bay. Even if you get a 6th or 7th rounder, I'd be fine with that as I don't see him in our long-term plans even if Williams goes elsewhere. I wouldn't keep him around just for the comp pick. 

I'll count these guys as 49ers when we see them on the field. They are some of the reason I would be very disappointed/upset if we went DT yet again in the 1st round. They seem a lot like guys we already had on the roster... 

[N4L]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

we aren't even sure that Armstead is going to be on the roster at this point. He's a nice player for what he does, but he's not worth 9+ million, so the team could easily send that off

I say offer him a 3 year 15 million dollar deal with a 9 million dollar signing bonus and zero base pay this year, with next two years at 3 million base salary each. It would lower his cap hit to 3 million this year and would make him cheap for some other team if we wanted to trade him at the deadline/next year.

Hes finally starting to play well. He is a good rotational piece with upside. No reason to trade/cut him for peanuts

[John232]

Tannehill going to be released. Another trade up candidate.

[Forge]

Just now, N4L said:

I say offer him a 3 year 15 million dollar deal with a 9 million dollar signing bonus and zero base pay this year, with next two years at 3 million base salary each. It would lower his cap hit to 3 million this year and would make him cheap for some other team if we wanted to trade him at the deadline/next year.

Hes finally starting to play well. He is a good rotational piece with upside. No reason to trade/cut him for peanuts

I have no problems with extending him at a more palatable salary. To me, keeping him on the rookie deal is the one that makes the least amount of sense, but he also may not be willing to accept a deal such as that. He may want something like 3/21, which isn't an unreasonable ask, I just don't know if he's worth that for us specifically. 

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, John232 said:

Tannehill going to be released. Another trade up candidate.

Too far down for that to matter to me personally. Better be a massive haul in that situation. 

[oldman9er]

Wow, that was awful. I thought the kid had decided to play football, but now, well whatever. Glad we don't need a QB. 

[49ers Finest]

24 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Wow, that was awful. I thought the kid had decided to play football, but now, well whatever. Glad we don't need a QB. 

Yeah that was bad. He decided to enter the draft, but I guess is still playing hard to get with Oakland so that they pay him the 15 mill or whatever. There's no way he's telling nfl teams he doesnt now at this point though.

[y2lamanaki]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

Too far down for that to matter to me personally. Better be a massive haul in that situation. 

Knowing the Dolphins might be trading up for a QB might cause a team previously thinking they could wait and take a QB where they originally were to trade up, though.

[oldman9er]

On 2/1/2019 at 10:37 AM, NcFinest9erFan said:

Also thoughts on Brian Burns? obviously he won't be picked at #2 but he looks the part when it comes to getting to the QB.

Watched a bit of Burns this morning, and had some thoughts. MANNY LAWSON, but probably with even better short area burst. 

I say that with some affection, because I really like Manny, but Burns is not a complete DE coming out. Rookies of course are going to need some work in varying deficiencies, but I feel like we shouldn't want to wait while fixing his. Definitely not in early 1st rd. He's young and can eventually get stronger, of course, but he has some flaws that push him out of the top 20. (probably in that same area Manny got drafted) Long and lanky, and right away, can tell he would rarely win on working back inside against pro OL. 

That 0-60 burst?   .. very impressive. I'm eager to see his 10 and 20 yard splits come Combine time. He even has some bend and dip, so there's a lot of good to work with. 

I like a lot about his game, but I feel we need an instant starter that doesn't have significant holes to his game. Guess I may die on this "need strength" mountain.