Kickoffs to be "modified"

[Woz]

11 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

That’s right, we wouldn’t, just like we won’t have all of those exciting kickoff returns for a TD.

2002-2017 across all quarters: 40971 kickoffs
2002-2017 across all quarters: 231 kickoffs resulting in a touchdown (0.56%)

By comparison:
2002-2017 across all quarters: 40734 punts on 4th down(*)
2002-2017 across all quarters: 352 punts resulted in a touchdown (0.86%)

And those punt returns are almost always more exciting.

 

 

(*) There were 5 punts on 3rd downs during that timespan.

[Leader]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, they want to make it safer...but they have literally no alternative for the onside kick.  It's a low percentage play, but it's the only play that has hope for a team that's behind and out of TO's to kick off.

Ironically, it's probably the most dangerous play, from a safety perspective.   Tough spot for the league, I would be hard $ that fair catch to 25 yd line rule comes in.   The fact that the Pats are the team that do this really well will no doubt get some reaction on the motivations lol.

Sure they do - or can. You take the players crashing into each other out entirely. Just take them off the field. Let them watch as the Kicker has to bounce the ball off the kicking tee and through some prepositioned hoops (with nets) placed on the field. He does it - the kicking team keeps the ball. He doesnt - oh well.

(the above is a bit facetious....a bit....)

[Woz]

Just now, Woz said:

1 hour ago, bucsfan333 said:

Once there's a way to replace the onside kick, it sounds like kickoffs are donezo.

Modified Schiano suggestion:

• 4th & 10 from the team's own 35 (Schiano originally made it 4th & 15)
• Any penalties that would result in an automatic first down do not grant a first down (until either a first down is accomplished by the attempting team or the attempt fails and the ball is turned over on downs). The penalty yardage does count, and if that is enough to get a team a first, then the "try" was successful and now all penalties return to granting automatic first down status.

44 minutes ago, warfelg said:

So we wouldn't have the chance at the Saints-Colts SB second half kickoff with a surprise onside.  This is why I'm not a fan of taking away the kickoff and making a team declare an onside.  You are taking away strategy and surprise. 

Per pro-football-reference.com's Play Finder, from 2002-2017 (the 32 team NFL era), there have been 176 onside kicks in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters (a fair approximation of a "surprise" onside kick). During that same time span, there have been 790 onside kicks in the 4th quarter(*). So about 18% of all onside kicks were "surprise" kicks. That's good.

Except during that time span, there were 32,182 kickoffs in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, meaning onside kicks comprised only 0.54% of all kickoff down plays outside of the 4th quarter. As for the 4th, 8,546 kickoffs in the 4th quarters means that onside kicks were only attempted 8.5% of the time.

 

So, if there is the ability for a team to "steal" control of the ball via a normal football play instead of worrying about the random bouncing of an irregular oblong ball, isn't that better? Would that perhaps encourage teams to take more risks? Wouldn't it be more interesting to see Ben, Bell, and Brown steal the ball from the Ravens by just imposing their offensive will on Baltimore's defense?

 

 

 

(*) There was one onside kick in overtime during this span, but I discarded it as it counted for only 0.1% of all onside kicks. In case you care, that one onside kick represented 0.4% of all overtime kickoff down plays during the time period.

@TXsteeler, in answer to your questions, just so you don't miss it because it got paged.

[TXsteeler]

4 minutes ago, Woz said:

@TXsteeler, in answer to your questions, just so you don't miss it because it got paged.

Thanks Woz, I agree with your plan but 4th and 10 from your own 35 doesn't sound like a big enough risk for teams with very good offenses and bad defenses. If you end up with one of those matchups where both offenses are top 5 and both defenses are like bottom 10 you may see teams doing this multiple times figuring at worst they get the ball back quicker after the other team scores.

I would say at least 4th and 20 from your own 20, maybe 4th an 25 from your own 25.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

16 minutes ago, Woz said:

2002-2017 across all quarters: 40971 kickoffs
2002-2017 across all quarters: 231 kickoffs resulting in a touchdown (0.56%)

By comparison:
2002-2017 across all quarters: 40734 punts on 4th down(*)
2002-2017 across all quarters: 352 punts resulted in a touchdown (0.86%)

And those punt returns are almost always more exciting.

 

 

(*) There were 5 punts on 3rd downs during that timespan.

Not trying to be a jerk, but I’m not sure what these stats are proving other than teams shouldn’t expect to score on a punt or kickoff return.

My initial comment was made somewhat tongue in cheek. People are pointing out what we’d be missing (element of surprise), scores, whatever, which statistically have an impact on a small number of games.

[warfelg]

I would say if you want to do anything introduce an “intentional touchback”. Fair catches 10 yards and in to the end zone. If the kicking team intends on booting it out just place it. 

Either that or opening kickoff, second half, and last 5:00 of them game when score is within 2 scores. Otherwise just place it. 

[warfelg]

34 minutes ago, TXsteeler said:

Ok what is it then?

I dunno. That’s up to the competition committee. Not me. 

[warfelg]

30 minutes ago, Woz said:

Modified Schiano suggestion:

• 4th & 10 from the team's own 35 (Schiano originally made it 4th & 15)
• Any penalties that would result in an automatic first down do not grant a first down (until either a first down is accomplished by the attempting team or the attempt fails and the ball is turned over on downs). The penalty yardage does count, and if that is enough to get a team a first, then the "try" was successful and now all penalties return to granting automatic first down status.

Per pro-football-reference.com's Play Finder, from 2002-2017 (the 32 team NFL era), there have been 176 onside kicks in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters (a fair approximation of a "surprise" onside kick). During that same time span, there have been 790 onside kicks in the 4th quarter(*). So about 18% of all onside kicks were "surprise" kicks. That's good.

Except during that time span, there were 32,182 kickoffs in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, meaning onside kicks comprised only 0.54% of all kickoff down plays outside of the 4th quarter. As for the 4th, 8,546 kickoffs in the 4th quarters means that onside kicks were only attempted 8.5% of the time.

 

So, if there is the ability for a team to "steal" control of the ball via a normal football play instead of worrying about the random bouncing of an irregular oblong ball, isn't that better? Would that perhaps encourage teams to take more risks? Wouldn't it be more interesting to see Ben, Bell, and Brown steal the ball from the Ravens by just imposing their offensive will on Baltimore's defense?

 

 

 

(*) There was one onside kick in overtime during this span, but I discarded it as it counted for only 0.1% of all onside kicks. In case you care, that one onside kick represented 0.4% of all overtime kickoff down plays during the time period.

My counter to all of that is it doesn’t matter how infrequent it happens it still needs to be a possibility. I can think of plenty of plays that can lead to injury that are infrequent that you can say “get rid of” but have an impact on the spirit of the game. 

 

Basically i I don’t care it only happens a small percent of the time. Just still give me the chance of it happening. Find ways to keep the chance there, however small. I’m not a fan of “announcing” your intentions through the one offensive play or only kicking if it’s an onside. 

Wny not announce if it’s a run or pass? Maybe we should have teams say they are running a fake punt? 

[PossibleCabbage]

Why not simply give the kicking team the option to give the other team a "touchback" without having to actually kick?  I guess you'd have to account for penalty yardage accrued on scoring plays here, but that seems like a workable way to reduce kickoffs.

[Chrissooner49er]

1 hour ago, WizardHawk said:

When concussions and billion dollar lawsuits stop, they probably will.

Lawsuits should not be allowed for something you KNEW could happen. You knew what was possible when you started playing. We're all adults, after all. If $$$$$ and the fun of the game is what they want, you take the risks as well.

[TXsteeler]

38 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I dunno. That’s up to the competition committee. Not me. 

If you can't even give me a suggestion then you can't tell me "there is" a middle ground.

There might not be, and there probably isn't.

Woz just told us surprise onside kicks make up 1 in every 200 kickoffs during the first 3 quarters, is that really worth keeping the kickoff around given all the injury risks it poses?

 

[cddolphin]

2 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

Sounds like you might be able to fair catch inside the 25 and take the ball at the 25, like a touch back.

Dumb, dumb, dumb, and a counter- to the coaches' counter of intentionally kicking short of the goal line to force a run back...  I will miss kick returns.

2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Sure beats the hell out of the PAT-commercial-kickoff-commercial sequence that comes with every score.

This actually happened at a way lower rate last year, they made a conscious effort to address it, and it was a very signficant reduction, I remember posting about it on this forum.

[Woz]

Just now, TXsteeler said:

Thanks Woz, I agree with your plan but 4th and 10 from your own 35 doesn't sound like a big enough risk for teams with very good offenses and bad defenses. If you end up with one of those matchups where both offenses are top 5 and both defenses are like bottom 10 you may see teams doing this multiple times figuring at worst they get the ball back quicker after the other team scores.

I would say at least 4th and 20 from your own 20, maybe 4th an 25 from your own 25.

Well, if you want something to be equivalent of the risk the onside kick has today, the line of scrimmage probably needs to be the 35.

4th and 10 conversion rate (first down or touchdown, excluding QB kneel downs): 60 out of 1394 = 4.3%

If you prefer Schiano's original proposal (4th and 15), it becomes: 11 out of 448 = 2.5%

[TXsteeler]

36 minutes ago, warfelg said:

My counter to all of that is it doesn’t matter how infrequent it happens it still needs to be a possibility. I can think of plenty of plays that can lead to injury that are infrequent that you can say “get rid of” but have an impact on the spirit of the game. 

 

Basically i I don’t care it only happens a small percent of the time. Just still give me the chance of it happening. Find ways to keep the chance there, however small. I’m not a fan of “announcing” your intentions through the one offensive play or only kicking if it’s an onside. 

Wny not announce if it’s a run or pass? Maybe we should have teams say they are running a fake punt? 

Such as?

[bucsfan333]

BB gonna figure out how to somehow squib it to around the 20.