Odds of going Worst to First

[thebestever6]

I agree that LAC is still ahead of us talent wise. I just personally believe that talent can change fast based off of some things. 

One is time of possession if we control this we arent getting scored on number 1, number 2 we have a fresh d which is huge. 

I also think our trench play will improve on offense for the simple fact that we have a aolid qb. And the oline will grow more together.  

Our d line will improve the most with Chubv, walker, and heck i think that nt from notre dame is still on the team. 

We can cover tight ends now and the lbs are much improved. 

And i think Bronco fan said talib was a problem which I agree. He was the type when stuff is going great  he balls out when its not he gives up. So our secondary should be better. 

Also afc as a whole is weaker than the nfc. Mic drop there for I have us number 1 in chances but our coaching staff scares me. Goofy lol.

[anewdawn]

17 hours ago, AKRNA said:

This is usually my most optimistic time of year and this years no different.  That optimism is based on over half a century of being a Broncos fan. There's plenty of time for reality to sink in but until the season starts I'm wearing rose colored glasses. We've made some good roster moves, positional upgrades, great draft and most importantly solid coaching changes.

On offense we've really solidified some weak links. Our two rookies should go a long way to solidifying our 3rd and 4th WR spots. Freeman and our other two rookie RB's, should upgrade our RB rotation and hopefully Henderson gets some more touches.

Our OL should be greatly improved. The coaching changes and additions are the primary reason for that. Our OL has been a disaster not only due to limited personnel but really poor coaching, trying to put square pegs into round holes. Moving Leary back to LG should pay immediate dividends, both a huge positional upgrade over Garcia but a great help for Bolles who I'm expecting a big jump from this year. A right side of Veldheer/McGovern adds the talent an mobility required on the right and is light years above what we had there last year. Now, if our new OL coaches can live up to their reputations our OL can actually be quite good. Still have depth concerns but those should sort themselves out during OTA's and TC.

At QB, we've got an OC and staff that have spent the entire offseason developing a playbook and philosophy specifically to take advantage of the talents of the three QB's on our roster. There won't be any "open competition" bs in TC, a large distraction at best.

For right now I'm typed out". This is mighty wordy for me. I might add something later, who knows. Bottom line, I think it's possible with the real serious challenge coming from the Chargers but as UK points out, they're amazing at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

I agree wholeheartedly Akrna and it's been a great ride being a broncos fan since the days of Craig Morton.  One fact I've been relaying to EVERYONE is what i picked up from the nfl network a couple of weeks ago.  We have more superbowl appearances than losing seasons.  Like holly **** - i never realized that.  Shows you how spoiled we really are.    If things go right I can see us battling and taking the division.  I think our D is back.  Not as great as the SB D but it is back.  And this offence - well we will have to wait and see but I figure it's better than that SB offence which sucked for a year and a half.  I'm still stunned we won that SB with that offence.  Also I don't see things going easy for KC and the LAC always seem to trip over the chalk lines so lets hope that continues - bcuz they are the threat.  One final note because honestly I never really read the long posts - if we now trade Shane Ray we might get another valueable piece.  Anyway you hit it on the head Akrna - if you can't be optomistic at this time of year the battle just gets harder. 

   

[AKRNA]

5 hours ago, anewdawn said:

I agree wholeheartedly Akrna and it's been a great ride being a broncos fan since the days of Craig Morton.  One fact I've been relaying to EVERYONE is what i picked up from the nfl network a couple of weeks ago.  We have more superbowl appearances than losing seasons.  Like holly **** - i never realized that.  Shows you how spoiled we really are.    If things go right I can see us battling and taking the division.  I think our D is back.  Not as great as the SB D but it is back.  And this offence - well we will have to wait and see but I figure it's better than that SB offence which sucked for a year and a half.  I'm still stunned we won that SB with that offence.  Also I don't see things going easy for KC and the LAC always seem to trip over the chalk lines so lets hope that continues - bcuz they are the threat.  One final note because honestly I never really read the long posts - if we now trade Shane Ray we might get another valueable piece.  Anyway you hit it on the head Akrna - if you can't be optomistic at this time of year the battle just gets harder. 

   

I'm pretty sure that just under Bowlens ownership. We had season tickets from 63 on and didn't have a winning season until until 73, the year I left college and joined the work force.

That was a rough stretch. The most wins we had in any season during that time was 5 and our average season was less than 4 wins. It was tough being a fan, especially since I went to school in North Dakota and everyone there was a Vikings fan.

[champ11]

I'd be a lot more confident in the Chiefs taking a step back if I didn't think Mahomes was a special talent. I'm so jealous

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, champ11 said:

I'd be a lot more confident in the Chiefs taking a step back if I didn't think Mahomes was a special talent. I'm so jealous

And that's the argument for going for the franchise-level QB as a rookie.   Not just his play, but Mahomes is doing it so cheaply, it singlehandledly turned KC from a bottom 3 cap team to now around 22nd - still work to do, but that's a massive change in cap health.

Lynch and Bortles are the late-1st and early-1st recent examples of why you fear whiffing.   Mahomes & Watson are actually rare examples of picks outside the top 10 that succeed.   Before that, outside of Flacco, the list was really iffy - and you can make the argument Flacco's SB run was flukey, because the rest of his career, he's not even met the threshold of franchise-level QB (only average to below-average play since then).

But when you  hit, like Wentz/Goff, and by the looks of it, Watson & Mahomes, even if it's "only" top 8-12 level of play (where I peg Matt Ryan), it's a massive payoff.  Especially in the first 5 years with that rookie deal (and 6th year isn't crazy yet with the franchise tag, it's only crazy with Cousins because they did it 2x and that called for a 20 percent increase each time - although if the extensions keep coming, that tag will become less attractive than the 20M it was for Cousins 2 years ago).

[anewdawn]

20 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I'm pretty sure that just under Bowlens ownership. We had season tickets from 63 on and didn't have a winning season until until 73, the year I left college and joined the work force.

That was a rough stretch. The most wins we had in any season during that time was 5 and our average season was less than 4 wins. It was tough being a fan, especially since I went to school in North Dakota and everyone there was a Vikings fan.

K that makes more sense.......I only go back to about the mid 70's with the broncos.  I must have missed some of what they were talking about - it sounded to good to be true but overall it's been quite a pleasure watching this team!!

[kansas bob]

I would love to say that with Case Keenum and the talent we have that we have a great chance of going from last to first but unless Coach Joseph develops fast as a head coach, it probably won't happen. We still have some exceptional talent on our team, hope our coaching staff can step up.

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, kansas bob said:

I would love to say that with Case Keenum and the talent we have that we have a great chance of going from last to first but unless Coach Joseph develops fast as a head coach, it probably won't happen. We still have some exceptional talent on our team, hope our coaching staff can step up.

I think talent wise we improved the most in the afc.  This team has potential but that just means we haven't done anything yet.

I also think new england hit a homerun this off season. I like the wynn pick. Sony michel and jeremy hill is a perfect duo  love the danny Sheldon pickup as well as the Clayborn pickup. Also trading a late round pick for mccourty was smart.  Very sneaky good off season. 

[thebestever6]

Hows dallas , seattle, texans , and niners better than us in the power rankings?

I think we have a better roster than all those teams . I have us between 15- and 18. 21 is too low imo.

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

Hows dallas , seattle, texans , and niners better than us in the power rankings?

I think we have a better roster than all those teams . I have us between 15- and 18. 21 is too low imo.

Dallas and Seattle are coin flips to me in regards to being better than us. I honestly think SF is going to take a big step forward next season as my bet is on Jimmy being the real deal. That defense has a lot of young talent ready to make the jump too IMO. I think their OL will surprise this season personally too.

The Texans are wildcards in that they could be better than us but that hinges a whole lot on their cornerstone offensive and defensive players returning to their former playing quality. That's not something you bet on.

I basically see us 'in the mix' with Dallas, Seattle, Texas and SF. Betting man, I would put Seattle and SF ahead of us and rely on the history of Dallas underwhelming year-after-year and the unlikelihood that both Watt and Watson both return at 100% next season.

[thebestever6]

15 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Dallas and Seattle are coin flips to me in regards to being better than us. I honestly think SF is going to take a big step forward next season as my bet is on Jimmy being the real deal. That defense has a lot of young talent ready to make the jump too IMO. I think their OL will surprise this season personally too.

The Texans are wildcards in that they could be better than us but that hinges a whole lot on their cornerstone offensive and defensive players returning to their former playing quality. That's not something you bet on.

I basically see us 'in the mix' with Dallas, Seattle, Texas and SF. Betting man, I would put Seattle and SF ahead of us and rely on the history of Dallas underwhelming year-after-year and the unlikelihood that both Watt and Watson both return at 100% next season.

There all relatively close i dont see how seattle improved the oline enough and they did lose defensive leaders.

 

I'm not high on san frans skill positions or mkinnon being a beast.

[Broncofan]

Re: Power Rankings besides the obvious answer that they aren’t great at predicting this early in the offseason (or in general) - it’s more the tier of teams that you are in placed in that matters.   

Even if we don’t like the 21 spot if we are in the same tier as 17-22 it’s hard to argue.   If we use the same worst case arguments for our own team to the same extent as we are using for the others it’s pretty hard to see obvious separation.   

Our biggest reasons for optimism are Keenum and the draft.  When we know the draft takes time.  And Keenum is no lock to be the answer (except for being better than our 2026-17 guys - no doubt he should be, the question is how much).    It’s not hard to see us in the 20 range.   Frankly we would likely be worse if the NFC wasn’t so stacked at the top 4 (and I’d argue the top 8 teams there).  

[jsthomp2007]

5 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Hows dallas , seattle, texans , and niners better than us in the power rankings?

I think we have a better roster than all those teams . I have us between 15- and 18. 21 is too low imo.

Um...the Broncos did just pick in the top 5 in this past draft....that is why. 

[kansas bob]

I don't pay much attention to pre season rankings. I felt like if we had anything that even looked like a quarterback last season, we would have easily won our division. I think our defense got disguised holding the opponents to nothing and then our offense or special teams would turn the ball over and our defense was right back on the field with their backside amost in their own end zone. Seems like Ilke O z would go in and have a good game and Joseph would put Siemian right back in starting the next game!

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, kansas bob said:

I don't pay much attention to pre season rankings. I felt like if we had anything that even looked like a quarterback last season, we would have easily won our division. I think our defense got disguised holding the opponents to nothing and then our offense or special teams would turn the ball over and our defense was right back on the field with their backside amost in their own end zone. Seems like Ilke O z would go in and have a good game and Joseph would put Siemian right back in starting the next game!

Our OL was bottom 5 in pass protection. We had no weapons in the pass game except DT and Sanders (who missed so many games).    We couldn’t cover TE & RB.  We couldn’t rush the passer with anyone but Von.   And we were 31st in ST play by DVOA.   So bad OL, bad weapons on O, a clear coverage weakness and no support for Von on D.  And pretty much league-worst ST.  Bad in all 3 areas of the game (run D and WR coverage were great but that’s about it). 

There’s nowhere to go but up but anyone who thinks we win the AFCW last year with a better QB alone is kidding themselves. We were a bad team all around.   Long term we don’t go anywhere without better QB play but we earned that 2017 bottom 5 tag.