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broncos_fan _from _uk

Odds of going Worst to First

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Posted (edited)

Every year for the past decade, with the exception of 2014 at least 1 team has gone Worst to First in their division. What do you think the Broncos' odds are?

I think they are the second most likely behind the 49ers:

49ers - I love Jimmy G. I love what Lynch and Shanahan have been building over there. I think the Rams come back to earth a little bit (the Wade Phillips year 2 effect) and the Seahawks and Cards appear to be in full rebuild mode.

Broncos - We are still only 2 years removed from a SB victory. I believe in Case Keenum to be an above average QB, something we haven't had in 3.5 years. I think bolles will be greatly improved with an additional year plus an LG who can play and I liked what I saw from McGovern the last month of the season. I think Our O can become league average which could be enough with our elite D in the weakened AFC West (Gruden may very well turn the it around but this year definately appears to be a step back, the chiefs saw a lot of talent leave and Mahomes will struggle his first season, and the Chargers always seem to find a way to claim defeat from the jaws of victory

Giants - the NFC east has had a worst to first 9 of the last 10 seasons. So history tells us it should be them. much improved coaching, faith in Eli, and what should prove to be a powerful run game will help. the division is overrated and the defending champs don't know when they will get their QB back... maybe I should have them higher....

Texans - JJ watt should come back healthy (isn't this the 3rd or 4th year in a row we've said this) and although I'm interested in seeing how Watson adjusts to the defenses adjusting to him, there is no denying he is an upgrade. The Jags still have Bortles and who knows of Luck will ever return to the luck of old.

Bears - I really like the direction the bears are heading, but I think Nagy (who will be a good coach in this league eventually) is likely to have some growing pains in a tough hard nosed division. 

Bucs - I dont trust Winston or Koetter. Add in a division with 3 playoff teams last year and I don't see them climbing to first.

Browns - If they had drafted any other QB #1 I would like their chances. I actually like most of what they have done this off season, and they were not as bad as 0-16 says. That said, Jackson is not a strong enough leader to lead that QB room if Baker isn't starting. I think Baker will start before he is ready, struggle, lose the respect of his teammates, and get his head coach fired before the end of the season.

Jets - I like what they have done but as long as Brady and Belichick are still in NE....

Edited by broncos_fan _from _uk
apparently sn@tch is a bad word

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I think the 49'ers, Giants and Texans have considerably better odds than we do. I expect us to finish last again honestly. Our talent level simply isnt up to snuff with OAK, KC and especially SD. IMO there is a good chance our offense is still the worst of the bunch, and scarily also a good chance that both KC and SD have better defensive talent. 

Figured I would be the contrarian and bring everyone down off this draft high lol. 

 

 

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I totally agree we're better than everyone of the bottom 8 teams from last year..except Tampa & SF.  

The problem is that LAC is head and shoulders ahead of everyone pre-draft.  And as I'm fond of saying over & over (and over), drafts don't have nearly as much year 1 impact.   I will say we've closed the gap on OAK in a big way.   KC is probably a bridge too far, given my belief that Mahomes is legit. I would say our chances of being a 7-9/8-8 team are way better now.    Going Chubb instead of QBOTF at 1.5 guarantees that.  

Re: Tampa, I don't trust Koetter at all - he was so promising as an innovator OC when he went to Tampa...and as a HC, he's become so vanilla.   SUPER predictable and conservative.  I'm actually very high on Winston - I think he's in for a huge post-hype bounce back.   That OL was awful.   Much like Big Ben, Winston's greatest weakness is too much gunslinger, and doing too much at times.   That gets a lot better with a much-improved D that shouldn't force him to play from being down 2+ scores, with 2 CB's and Vita Vea upgrading that DL and secondary.   Cappa helps that interior OL.   I'm not as high on Ronald Jones as the CW has it, but I will say he's a massive upgrade on that sorry backfield last year, simply because that backfield was a bottom 3 unit talent-wise last year (Doug Martin looked done).  

I think SF & Tampa have the biggest turnarounds.   Tampa's biggest problem is that the 3 teams ahead of them talent-wise are top 6 teams in the NFC.   Sucks to be in the NFCS.  Similar to us in 2016 (LAC only really bad squad, and on the rise, obviously - their time is now).

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I think the 49'ers, Giants and Texans have considerably better odds than we do. I expect us to finish last again honestly. Our talent level simply isnt up to snuff with OAK, KC and especially SD. IMO there is a good chance our offense is still the worst of the bunch, and scarily also a good chance that both KC and SD have better defensive talent. 

Figured I would be the contrarian and bring everyone down off this draft high lol. 

 

 

To be honest, though, those 2 statements aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.   It's human nature to get excited about draft prospects, but really, 2-3 guys could have a big impact this year, which would be a FANTASTIC result draft-wise.   And 4-5 Year 2 starters.  Again, a fantastic result.  But that's not getting us to the top of the division, either.  It might not even get us out of the cellar.

I think it was @jolly red giant  who said we need to get 1-2 more drafts like 2018 to get back into sustained contention.  Completely agree there.   

Great work this past weekend, Elway/Kubiak, but we've got more to do before we can talk division-best, or even playoffs.   2019 sure has a lot more now, though.

Odds-wise, though, yeah, I think HOU & SF are the best bets.   Weaker divisions (SEA & ARI are not making playoffs this year, not close IMO, SF only has 1 team to beat.  HOU getting Watson back is huge - in theory, Watt too, but have more doubts there).  

Edited by Broncofan

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10 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I think the 49'ers, Giants and Texans have considerably better odds than we do. I expect us to finish last again honestly. Our talent level simply isnt up to snuff with OAK, KC and especially SD. IMO there is a good chance our offense is still the worst of the bunch, and scarily also a good chance that both KC and SD have better defensive talent. 

Figured I would be the contrarian and bring everyone down off this draft high lol. 

 

 

I tend to agree. I think Texans have the best shot - the QB that won their division last year was Blake Bortles. Enough said lol.

I think there are some key question marks for the Broncos going into the season. If most work out, it's possible we could be a 10 win team. If most don't work out, probably looking at around 6 again.

Coaching: Is our coaching trash or will Joseph and Musgraves take a step up in their second season

QB: Can Case Keenum be a starting quality QB with less talent than was in Minnesota? Most definitely an upgrade, but how good can he be?

TE: Is Jake Butt any good? Only question marks at this position

WR: Question marks at the #3 WR spot. Who's stepping up there?

OL: Bolles improvement? Veldheer and upgrade? McGovern an upgrade?

RB: Are any of our guys starting material? Might be a downgrade from CJ. 

And that's just on the offensive side of the ball lol. There are a ton of question marks and it remains to be seen how large the improvement can be on the offensive side

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In terms of the Broncos there is about a 20% chance.  We are likely the worst team in the AFC West.  7-9 would be wonderful.

Hopefully next season we can have an offense that is improved enough to contend for a wildcard.

The big thing to get excited about is the search for a great new coach.  One more horrible year and then we won't have to deal with the most GLARING weakness on this team.  The coach.

If they fire VJ after 4 weeks, we can let Joe Wood limp us in, draft high again next year and find a coach that we can all respect and care about.

That's the hard truth.

 

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Posted (edited)
Quote

And that's just on the offensive side of the ball lol. There are a ton of question marks and it remains to be seen how large the improvement can be on the offensive side

I am extremely concerned about our talent offensively. I believe that Keenum is more likely to become the QB everyone knew he was (As in below average in STL/HOU), than to build off a single season.

Statistics means something to me, and a single good season in the middle of a mediocre career isn't coming close to giving me the analytical evidence needed to declare Chase a career-revised.

Additionally, we did little to improve our OL. Veldheer is an improvement on paper, but his play was markedly declining last season and he is likely to remain injury prone due to his age. McGovern flashed a bit, but is still an unknown in my book. And Bolles is far from a guarantee to develop into even an average pass protector. We are still a poor team all along the OL, and borderline cripplingly poor if a starter goes down with injury (Which will happen at some point).

At RB we replaced a tremendously underrated CJ with a player that we hope can become CJ. I don't take that bet. Freeman is nice and well rounded, but CJ had a burst through the hole that we are going to miss more than we think. I believe our RB play will be markedly worse next season.

The TE position hinges on a 5th round redshirt who was arguably a 4.80 40 type before a catastrophic injury. That's scary.

The WR position looks good, but how do DT and Manny react when Keenum regresses to the mean?

I just don't see it. We are making some strides in the right direction but this is a 6-10 caliber team at best, more likely another 4-5 win season IMHO. Which conveniently is almost certain to be good enough to take us out of the QB race next draft.

Edited by BroncosFan2010
adjusted

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I am extremely concerned about our talent offensively. I believe that Keenum is more likely to become the QB everyone knew he was (As in below average in STL/HOU), than to build off a single season.

Statistics means something to me, and a single good season in the middle of a mediocre career isn't coming close to giving me the analytical evidence needed to declare Chase a career-revised.

Additionally, we did little to improve our OL. Veldheer is an improvement on paper, but his play was markedly declining last season and he is likely to remain injury prone due to his age. McGovern flashed a bit, but is still an unknown in my book. And Bolles is far from a guarantee to develop into even an average pass protector. We are still a poor team all along the OL, and borderline cripplingly poor if a starter goes down with injury (Which will happen at some point).

At RB we replaced a tremendously underrated CJ with a player that we hope can become CJ. I don't take that bet. Freeman is nice and well rounded, but CJ had a burst through the hole that we are going to miss more than we think. I believe our RB play will be markedly worse next season.

The TE position hinges on a 5th round redshirt who was arguably a 4.80 40 type before a catastrophic injury. That's scary.

The WR position looks good, but how do DT and Manny react when Keenum regresses to the mean?

I just don't see it. We are making some strides in the right direction but this is a 6-10 caliber team at best, more likely another 4-5 win season IMHO. Which conveniently is almost certain to be good enough to take us out of the QB race next draft.

Yeah, that's the glass half-empty view for our O for sure.     If Keenum is just league-average, then we're probably a 6-10 to 8-8 team.  Which in a lot of ways, is actually worse - not good enough to make the playoffs - but really in that in-between zone of lacking difference-making draft capital, too.   I know it's not a universally held position, but 2019 is not at all a good QB draft at the top (I think that's more universally accepted), too.   So 2019+ is the earliest realistic ETA to contend - and 2020 isn't a crazy call, either, especially if QB is still our biggest weakness.   

Edited by Broncofan

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1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, that's the glass half-empty view for our O for sure.     If Keenum is just league-average, then we're probably a 6-10 to 8-8 team.  Which in a lot of ways, is actually worse - not good enough to make the playoffs - but really in that in-between zone of lacking difference-making draft capital, too.   I know it's not a universally held position, but 2019 is not at all a good QB draft at the top (I think that's more universally accepted), too.   So 2019+ is the earliest realistic ETA to contend - and 2020 isn't a crazy call, either, especially if QB is still our biggest weakness.   

We have to get the coach worked out.  I think Elway wants to fix the roster before he pays a coach.  We would have Kyle Shanahan if Elway was able to admit the roster was broken and let Kyle have more control to fix it.  It looks to me like Elway is setting the table for Kubiak to take the reigns with Matt and take a step back (total speculation).  Kubiak will be in a position to draft his QB and get his coach after this year.

We all need to agree that the reason VJ is the coach is because we are rebuilding.  Elway can't loose on this one.  If we start as we should, 0-3 ;1-3 even 0-2.  He fires him and promotes within.  VJ is at fault, and if we turn it around during the season he is a hero.  If we surprise and win, Elway is responsible and VJ gets fired after we go 7-9 or lose a wildcard game.  Smart move by Elway probably?

It was telling when the draft ended and VJ was off to the left of the picture while the core team was hugging and shaking hands and only after he awkwardly put his coat on and approached them that they acknowledged him.  He is the next shoe to drop in our return to dominance.

He is a worse version of Wade Phillips in waiting for the next Mike Shanahan coaching candidate, al a 1994-95. 

The biggest question I have of ALL, is what did Elway see in him?  There was no body of proof of success in anything he had done for the most part?

Ultimately, I see the big topic around Week 4 or 5 of the season being a thread titled "NEW HEAD COACHING SEARCH CANDIDATES".

 

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The coach sucks but so does that talent.

Quote

Kubiak will be in a position to draft his QB and get his coach after this year.

I love the idea of waiting a year for a QB when the talent in 2019 is quite poor and we had a franchise guy fall into our laps this draft. SMH.

Case is here to be our Kyle Orton for two years until we scramble again in 2020 pursuing a QB of actual merit. Until then we are likely in purgatory. Too good to draft a QBOTF, too bad to make the playoffs.

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56 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

The coach sucks but so does that talent.

I love the idea of waiting a year for a QB when the talent in 2019 is quite poor and we had a franchise guy fall into our laps this draft. SMH.

Case is here to be our Kyle Orton for two years until we scramble again in 2020 pursuing a QB of actual merit. Until then we are likely in purgatory. Too good to draft a QBOTF, too bad to make the playoffs.

If our HC and Offense are on the far side of bad, then it won't matter how good our D performs. It'll be so bad, lol. Top 5 pick again.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

The coach sucks but so does that talent.

I love the idea of waiting a year for a QB when the talent in 2019 is quite poor and we had a franchise guy fall into our laps this draft. SMH.

Case is here to be our Kyle Orton for two years until we scramble again in 2020 pursuing a QB of actual merit. Until then we are likely in purgatory. Too good to draft a QBOTF, too bad to make the playoffs.

 

22 minutes ago, The Helicopter said:

If our HC and Offense are on the far side of bad, then it won't matter how good our D performs. It'll be so bad, lol. Top 5 pick again.

I agree with what you guys are saying, you know my take is that we aren't a contender in 2018.    And 2019 is best-case.

I do kinda feel your take could have been even more powerful with this though...

OKdG401.png

Edited by Broncofan

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I think we will be pretty decent this season - hopefully not just good enough that Elway doesn't have an excuse to sack VJ.

two comments -

1. I think the running game will be better - not because I didn't rate CJ (we couldn't afford $4.5milliom) - but because I think the OL will be better and the passing game will be more of a threat which will also help.

2. I think it was worth noting that Elway said that there will be a competition for the back-up QB between Lynch and Kelly. It could be that they think Kelly has potential and they are going to give him a shot - with the first step making him beat out Lynch for back-up QB (which I expect him to do comfortably). In twelve months time we may be saying that Elway knew what he was doing not taking a QB (here is hoping - and I think he was absolutely right to take Chubb).

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This is usually my most optimistic time of year and this years no different.  That optimism is based on over half a century of being a Broncos fan. There's plenty of time for reality to sink in but until the season starts I'm wearing rose colored glasses. We've made some good roster moves, positional upgrades, great draft and most importantly solid coaching changes.

On offense we've really solidified some weak links. Our two rookies should go a long way to solidifying our 3rd and 4th WR spots. Freeman and our other two rookie RB's, should upgrade our RB rotation and hopefully Henderson gets some more touches.

Our OL should be greatly improved. The coaching changes and additions are the primary reason for that. Our OL has been a disaster not only due to limited personnel but really poor coaching, trying to put square pegs into round holes. Moving Leary back to LG should pay immediate dividends, both a huge positional upgrade over Garcia but a great help for Bolles who I'm expecting a big jump from this year. A right side of Veldheer/McGovern adds the talent an mobility required on the right and is light years above what we had there last year. Now, if our new OL coaches can live up to their reputations our OL can actually be quite good. Still have depth concerns but those should sort themselves out during OTA's and TC.

At QB, we've got an OC and staff that have spent the entire offseason developing a playbook and philosophy specifically to take advantage of the talents of the three QB's on our roster. There won't be any "open competition" bs in TC, a large distraction at best.

For right now I'm typed out". This is mighty wordy for me. I might add something later, who knows. Bottom line, I think it's possible with the real serious challenge coming from the Chargers but as UK points out, they're amazing at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

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