2018 Draft Eligible QB Thread

[Jlash]

15 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

What? I'm not sure what you're saying. I don't like Mason Rudolph. I think he stinks. I wouldn't take him in the 3rd round.

You said 'not enough tools to become a great QB' after stating you wouldn't take him in the 3rd. I was asking if the 3rd round is where you find great QB's, or QB's you try to develop into capable players. 

[Groink]

This is a quality class.  Besides the heralded top 5, there are others that could develop into starters down the road, or at least stick around the league as back-ups.  It's a good year if you're team needs a qb.  Next years looks kinda rough.

[Rich7sena]

I’ve had a revelation on Josh Rosen. I believe the closest pro player comp to him is Ryan Tannehill. After watching them back to back, I see the same traits and play style. Then both keep the offense on schedule provided they’re protected. They both have a relatively quick, but low release points. Both win almost exclusively within the pocket and the playcalling structure. There’s more to this take, but I feel as good about this comp as any this year.

[Da_Ducktator]

10 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

I’ve had a revelation on Josh Rosen. I believe the closest pro player comp to him is Ryan Tannehill. After watching them back to back, I see the same traits and play style. Then both keep the offense on schedule provided they’re protected. They both have a relatively quick, but low release points. Both win almost exclusively within the pocket and the playcalling structure. There’s more to this take, but I feel as good about this comp as any this year.

I'm a bit surprised on a Ryan Tannehill comp, I really don't see many similarities in there game. But I downloaded some software last week to pull GIF's so I could write up a Rosen topic, identifying some of his weaknesses. Expect it later today.

I'll just say this on what you said; Tannehill came out as an incredibly physically gifted but raw prospect (he was a WR the first few years at A&M) and Josh Allen is probably more like him than Rosen. If Rosen had Tannehill's raw arm strength, I wouldn't be as concerned as I am, but I think Rosen's arm gets overhyped because he has a clean motion but there is a lot of evidence not only on tape, but in the numbers that suggest he lacks an NFL arm.

[JJ6]

26 minutes ago, Da_Ducktator said:

I'm a bit surprised on a Ryan Tannehill comp, I really don't see many similarities in there game. But I downloaded some software last week to pull GIF's so I could write up a Rosen topic, identifying some of his weaknesses. Expect it later today.

I'll just say this on what you said; Tannehill came out as an incredibly physically gifted but raw prospect (he was a WR the first few years at A&M) and Josh Allen is probably more like him than Rosen. If Rosen had Tannehill's raw arm strength, I wouldn't be as concerned as I am, but I think Rosen's arm gets overhyped because he has a clean motion but there is a lot of evidence not only on tape, but in the numbers that suggest he lacks an NFL arm.

Josh Rosen = Matt Ryan without the leadership qualities. 

[BleedTheClock]

23 hours ago, Jlash said:

You said 'not enough tools to become a great QB' after stating you wouldn't take him in the 3rd. I was asking if the 3rd round is where you find great QB's, or QB's you try to develop into capable players. 

I don't like the idea of taking non-toolsy QB's. You don't have to be Josh Allen or Cam Newton, but you can't have a weak arm and no mobility in tandem. I wouldn't be nearly as willing to draft and develop a QB in rounds 3 and beyond that didn't have at least a strong arm of excellent athleticism. I might miss out on some good ones this way, but if I'm drafting a guy to be a developmental project, at least give me some physical tools to develop.

[Da_Ducktator]

26 minutes ago, jarren said:

Josh Rosen = Matt Ryan without the leadership qualities. 

I really don't think his arm is on the Ryan/Eli level that has been the common comparison. Again, I think his clean motion and some nice lob passes deep and throws to wide open intermediate targets covers up his struggles when throwing the ball into contested windows and displaying good ball placement against tight coverage. It looks really nice when he heaves it 50 years downfield to a receiver with a few steps and the ball just floats in the air, sure. But those opportunities only come 2-3 times a game, on average. It's all the other throws that make a quarterback successful overall and there is a lot that worries me on tape with Rosen.

I'll save my comparisons for the thread, but he reminds me a bit of a pair of guys that ended up going 2nd round after being hyped as 1st rounder nearly their entire collegiate career.

[Jlash]

34 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

but you can't have a weak arm and no mobility in tandem

See, this is where I think you're doing the same thing you did with DeShon Elliott. You don't like a prospect, and that's fine, but then you over blow his physical limitations to validate your stance. 

At 235 lbs, ran a sub 5 40, and has 17 career rushing TD's. For his size, his mobility is adequate. He's not going to run wild on anyone, but he's also not Peyton Manning in terms of foot speed either. He also doesn't have a weak arm, he's got a good enough arm, which a number of NFL QB's have. 

[goldfishwars]

Rosen is my top QB this year, I have zero questions about his arm strength. He’s an anticipation thrower, consistent in his dropbacks from snap to snap, manipulates the pocket like a pro and throws with accuracy. That’s what I want in a quarterback and he’s the best of the bunch.

[BleedTheClock]

10 minutes ago, Jlash said:

See, this is where I think you're doing the same thing you did with DeShon Elliott. You don't like a prospect, and that's fine, but then you over blow his physical limitations to validate your stance. 

At 235 lbs, ran a sub 5 40, and has 17 career rushing TD's. For his size, his mobility is adequate. He's not going to run wild on anyone, but he's also not Peyton Manning in terms of foot speed either. He also doesn't have a weak arm, he's got a good enough arm, which a number of NFL QB's have. 

Disagree. He's not running away from anyone in the NFL. Rudolph isn't someone that you can look at his athletic numbers and say, "boy, we have something here with this kid. Let's start peppering in the zone read!" His athleticism is not terrible, but it's not something he can utilize to his advantage in the NFL.

And I think he absolutely does have a weak arm. No QB that I've seen in the draft throws with as little velocity as Rudolph does. He can get it down the field just fine, but they're lollipops where his big WR's bail him out. He doesn't drive the football into tight windows with arm strength. I think as he sees more man coverage in the NFL, the windows will shrink and his "take what the defense gives you" style isn't going to translate. He's going to have to throw lasers into traffic, which I seriously doubt he can do.

I love his mental game and think he's a great college QB for a spread system, but he's not an NFL QB to me. And if you're not a possible superstar QB, I don't really want to spend a draft pick on you. I'm not trying to hit base hits with a QB if I don't have one. I need a homerun if I want to compete with the big dogs every year. Mason Rudolph doesn't have the skill set to be a homerun QB to me. Can he be Ryan Fitzpatrick? Sure! But I could just sign a Ryan Fitzpatrick every year in free agency instead of waste a draft pick on a dude who has a CEILING like that.

[BleedTheClock]

15 minutes ago, Jlash said:

See, this is where I think you're doing the same thing you did with DeShon Elliott. You don't like a prospect, and that's fine, but then you over blow his physical limitations to validate your stance. 

Elliot is a FS with marginal athleticism. How many of those guys go high in the draft? He's not a SS and I think we agree on that. He's very instinctive back there and isn't afraid to stick dudes coming across the middle, but I don't think he'll ever be more than an average starting FS in the NFL. I think at his absolute best, he's Tashaun Gipson with more striking power. That's not going to get you drafted very high IMO. He's not Gerod Holliman (slow with high production), but he certainly has limited range. I think he's going to have a hard time doing anything other than playing in the middle of the field in a cover 1/cover 3 scheme. He can't cover from hash to sideline in a 2-high look at the NFL level. He doesn't have the hips or the make-up speed to do it.

That's my opinion on Elliot. I try not to kill dudes for their lack of athleticism, but there are a few positions where you need to have it. And DB is most certainly one of them. There aren't many slow guys patrolling the deep secondary in the NFL, but there are a few outliers. I'm begging for there to be a true stud FS in this draft, as the Browns could use one (before the Randall trade)...but I don't see any true superstar FS out there nor do I see a corner that could even make that transition. The best two that actually played FS in college are Elliot and Blanding, and both struggle with their lateral and straight-line speed--a death sentence in the NFL. Both can be effective, but they extremely limit what your defensive coordinator can ask them to do in your defense.

[Jlash]

21 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Elliot is a FS with marginal athleticism

"athleticism of a slug"

[BleedTheClock]

1 minute ago, Jlash said:

"athleticism of a slug"

Do you want me to tell you he's literally as slow as a slug? That's a pretty common phrase for someone that's slow. He's a slow FS.

Should I go edit that post and say he has the "athleticism of a slow free safety?" Because that's exactly what that implies and I stand by that.

[Jlash]

3 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Do you want me to tell you he's literally as slow as a slug? That's a pretty common phrase for someone that's slow. He's a slow FS.

Should I go edit that post and say he has the "athleticism of a slow free safety?" Because that's exactly what that implies and I stand by that.

No I just wanted you to admit you sensationalize negative parts of prospects you don't like. It's ok if you want to stick to all of it.

[BleedTheClock]

6 minutes ago, Jlash said:

No I just wanted you to admit you sensationalize negative parts of prospects you don't like. It's ok if you want to stick to all of it.

ok. Do you believe that Elliot is athletic enough to cover the deep 1/2 of a cover 2 defense in the NFL? If he gets a post-wheel concept, do you think he can split the difference and stay ontop of the post and then come off onto the wheel late? I don't. I think he's limited to covering the deep middle because of his lack of range. I don't think that's "sensationalistic" in nature to say. He's going to consistently struggle if put in that role. I don't love the idea of drafting someone that can only play a specific role on defense. Offensively, it's fine to have skill-specific parts and pieces. NFL defenses adjust to schemes. If I'm an OC and I see Elliot playing on the field, I'm going 2x2 and running concepts to put him in a bind. Unless you want to play 2-man under, you're going to be exposed and give up big plays.

Elliot is a stud when he can just play roamball in the middle. If I ran a lot of press man, he'd be on my radar. If I ran a zone defense, he's a terrible fit unless it's a primarily cover 3 defense that stays C3 regardless of how many WR's are on the field like Seattle does.

I thought it was implied that saying "athleticism of a slug" was obvious hyperbole. I don't view that as sensationalizing his flaws. I thought the point that I was making was obvious--he is too slow to cover the freaks that exist in the NFL.