Who are the most overpaid players in the league?

[MrOaktown_56]

5 minutes ago, megatechpc said:

Cant wait to see how Carr and the Raiders do this season, then we'll see who's backpedaling.

Has nothing to do with the post. You said that the eye test involves more than passer rating... so you bring up YPA, another stat.

You tell me that my argument is weak because Carr is on my favorite team, which means I'll obviously overrate him, and you have "no dog in this fight". If you have no dog in this fight, why are people calling your objectivity into question? Oh wait, it's because you're cherrypicking stats to fit your narrative. You have completely ignored every single one of my arguments. 

You would have saved more face by ignoring my comments than by saying this because this just proves that you're immature and a whiner. Just because people disagree with you, you're even more eager to see Carr and the Raiders fall flat on their faces. Talk about confirmation bias at its finest.  "Just calling it like I see it " my ***. 

[megatechpc]

I wonder what you were saying this time last year about Carr and the Raiders?  I bet I know exactly the kind of predictions you were making.  I'm not hoping that Carr doesnt do well this season, I'm predicting he wont based on my own opinion on what I've seen so far.  Theres no argument here, you cant "prove" my opinion of him as a QB wrong.  Only his play can do that.

[MrOaktown_56]

13 minutes ago, megatechpc said:

I wonder what you were saying this time last year about Carr and the Raiders?  I bet I know exactly the kind of predictions you were making.  I'm not hoping that Carr doesnt do well this season, I'm predicting he wont based on my own opinion on what I've seen so far.  Theres no argument here, you cant "prove" my opinion of him as a QB wrong.  Only his play can do that.

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I didn't think we would fire a competent OC, have receivers leading the league in drops, and see him get injured again.

Your opinion is based on cherrypicked stats and unsubstantiated garbage. That's my only problem. It's your reasoning, not the conclusions you're drawing. And my other point is, his play as already proven he's in the ballpark of Stafford and Luck. If you can't see that, that's on you.

You still haven't responded to a single one of my arguments. Do you know why? Because you can't.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

On 8/21/2018 at 10:27 PM, megatechpc said:

My ranking is based on my personal belief that Luck is healthy now and will return to his former form, before the injuries side-tracked his career.  Between 2012 and 2014 he was absolutely a top-10 QB and in 2014 he was a strong contender for MVP (4700+ yards, 40 TD's, 96.5 QBR).  Obviously, if the time off or the injuries fundamentally change what he is on the field then that ranking will go down, but I am expecting him to bounce back this year.  He will probably be pretty rough for the first quarter of the season at least, but by the end of the year I think he will be Andrew Luck again, and you are kidding yourself if you really don't think he was ever a top-10 QB.

One thing you're forgetting is that not only would Andrew Luck need to return to the ONE YEAR he looked like a top 10 QB (2014) form, he also needs to repeat those same numbers against a revamped AFC South defensive lineup. In 2014 the Titans and Jaguars had two of the worst defenses in the NFL, while Houston was pretty good. Now you've got the best defense in the NFL in Jacksonville, a top-10 defense in Tennessee (unless Dean Pees has anything to say about it), and Houston's defense is still rather good with a healthy JJ Watt returning.

If you think all those things are gonna happen, then tip of the cap to you!

[megatechpc]

7 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

One thing you're forgetting is that not only would Andrew Luck need to return to the ONE YEAR he looked like a top 10 QB (2014) form, he also needs to repeat those same numbers against a revamped AFC South defensive lineup. In 2014 the Titans and Jaguars had two of the worst defenses in the NFL, while Houston was pretty good. Now you've got the best defense in the NFL in Jacksonville, a top-10 defense in Tennessee (unless Dean Pees has anything to say about it), and Houston's defense is still rather good with a healthy JJ Watt returning.

If you think all those things are gonna happen, then tip of the cap to you!

Agreed, Luck faces a very tough challenge this year indeed.  I think the AFC South could be the second-best division in all of football (and certainly one of the best defensively) and the Colts still don't have a ton of talent surrounding him, so my expectation for Luck really depends on whether he's truly healthy now and whether he can overcome the doubts in his mind about his body (which is usually the toughest part of coming back from an injury).  As I said, if Luck really is Luck again then we already pretty much know how they will do because the guy has always known how to win games (he's never had a losing season as the starter and won 11 games 3 years in a row to start his career with an even worse roster than he has this year).  It just jumps out at me how much success Luck has had while never having an even decent surrounding cast of players, meanwhile Carr has had nearly no success with a better roster than the Colts have had.

And for the record, its not like I'm the only one who thinks Luck is really something special.  He was probably the most talented QB coming out of the draft in the last 20 years and countless scouts and GMs have called him a generational talent.  Carr meanwhile hasn't really done much (IMO) to prove he is anything more than the second round pick he was in 2014.  He's certainly a franchise QB and is absolutely deserving of his contract (as I've repeated several times) because he is a top-15 QB in a QB-starved league.  I have just not seen his talent transcend the game and allow him to overcome his surrounding talent the way Andrew Luck has done 3 times, outside of the 2016 season.  

I dunno, perhaps both Carr and Luck will have monster years in 2018 and prove me wrong about Carr and you wrong about Luck?

[Shady Slim]

i've said this before but i'm properly buying in to gruden as a raider and what he brings to the club, and going off carr's 2016 - where he was a definite candidate for mvp - gruden bringing a clean slate and clean staff from last year's wreck of a season could reinvigorate both carr and the raiders offense as a whole.

derek carr is in a very good situation and if gruden and his staff can bring back the 2016 raiders success along the o-line they could crack double digit wins imho

[MrOaktown_56]

2 hours ago, megatechpc said:

And for the record, its not like I'm the only one who thinks Luck is really something special.  He was probably the most talented QB coming out of the draft in the last 20 years and countless scouts and GMs have called him a generational talent.  Carr meanwhile hasn't really done much (IMO) to prove he is anything more than the second round pick he was in 2014. 

1

1

This is quote of the century.

Carr has a better passer rating than Luck against harder schedule and with more WR drops than anyone else in the league since he entered "hasn't proved anything more than a 2nd round pick in 2014".

Luck against an easier schedule his whole career and a lower passer rating than Carr "Luck is really something special. A generational talent".

Bruh. You look at them as massively different but your number arguments that you rely on aren't helping you one bit. How can you throw numbers at me and tell me that one is a generational talent and the other hasn't done more than proving they're a second round pick? 

This is getting ridiculous.

You keep mentioning Luck's winning seasons. If he played in the AFC West the last 4 years, I'd have a hard time seeing him have more than 1 winning season. I'm sure other posters from the AFC West would agree.

[megatechpc]

11-5, 11-5, 11-5, 8-8 -------- 3-3 (Playoffs)

vs

3-13, 7-9, 12-4 ,6-10 --------- 0-0 (Playoffs)

First four season for Luck and Carr, including three playoff appearances and an AFCCG for Luck (Carr has never played a playoff game) and Luck had 13 more wins than Carr.   You can whine about drops and supposed easy divisions all you want, the results are right there.  This was a Colts team that had won TWO games in 2011, the year before Luck showed up.  That's what winners do; they win.  Carr took over a 4-12 Raiders team and went ----- 3-13 in his first year.  You really don't see a difference?  

You also only cherry pick the stats that you want to talk about, but conveniently ignore the fact that Luck has thrown 30 more TDs and 4400 more yards than Carrr in just 8 more games.  That massive advantage in rating that you keep talking about is 87.5 vs 87.3.  Wow.  Also don't mention that Luck has taken an absolute beating in every game of his career (including sustaining a lacerated freaking kidney) while Carr has played behind one of the better OLs in the NFL for his career.

I could go on and on, but its pointless.  Anybody can pick and choose the stats and scenarios that support their arguments.  My opinion is that Luck is a far more talented QB than Carr with a lot more potential, but that's just what I think.  You're not going to change my mind and I'm not going to change yours, so its pointless to continue.  I'm not saying Carr is a bum, just that he's been overrated (I even said his new contract is totally justified and that the Raiders would've been insane not to resign him).

 

[43M]

Forget it...not even worth it.

On topic though...Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins.

[megatechpc]

2 minutes ago, FourThreeMafia said:

After reading several of your posts, its become quite clear no one should take you seriously.  

Which of these posts are you referring to?  I'd be happy to walk you through them if they're too difficult for you to understand...

[Danand]

On 23/8/2018 at 8:37 AM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Your being so obtuse right now. You called him overrated and then pulled some BS arguments cherry picking metrics while clearly ignoring others. I laid it out very clearly. 
If you're just calling it how it is, why are you ignoring statistics in his favor? And all the relevant context I brought up?

Just because people are backing Carr here, because of all the people dumping on him because of recency bias, we think he's the GOAT qb?

Cmon man, awful strawman. Try harder.

Last year was "atrocious"? You didn't watch him. He had a back injury and a preschool OC who couldn't even get a qb job after being fired. He played an extremely tough schedule and his receivers were once again top 3 in the league in drops. And his "abysmal" season had a 86.5 quarterback rating, which is about two points lower than Luck's career passer rating. If that's atrocious, has Luck's whole career been atrocious?

You aren't considering any context, which is easy to understand because you don't watch the team. Which is why you bring up YPA, but ignore his absolutely abysmal drop numbers. Which is why you bring up team success, but ignore the situation and strength of schedule. Which is why you bring up 4000 yard passing/passing yards, but you ignore touchdown to interception ratio.

And lets be real here, you don't consider the quality of the team around him and the competition.

Raiders strength of schedule over the last 4 years:

2014: #1 (!!!!!)

2015: 8th

2016: 15th

2017:4th

Colts strength of schedule over Luck's career when he's played:

2012:T-14th

2013:30th

2014:32nd

2015: 31st

2016:22nd

These aren't even remotely comparable. Lucks schedule has only ranked above the bottom 10 in the NFL once. He literally played a bottom 3 schedule in 60% of his years starting.

Compare to Carr, where he's only played one year outside the top 10 in strength of schedule. What's more, Lucks hardest schedule is 1 spot higher than Carr's easiest. I don't think you understand what kind of bearing that has on individual statistics, let alone wins.

Who in this forum is calling Carr some kind of phenom? The forum is actually very down on him as a whole because of recency bias. In what world is he overrated? 

 

You either ARE Derek Carr, or his mother or something. The same way you critize the poster for nitpicking stats to suit his argument, you always do the exact same.

AND, if there is something that doesn't look good on the stat sheet, it has nothing to do with Carr's ability, rather than it is the receivers who are the issue, the running game struggling, the OC, the playcalling, an injury.

Its the same story with every time. If Carr looks good it is because of him being a passing GOD, and if he doesn't look good it is because of everything outside of his control.

[MrOaktown_56]

33 minutes ago, Danand said:

You either ARE Derek Carr, or his mother or something. The same way you critize the poster for nitpicking stats to suit his argument, you always do the exact same.

AND, if there is something that doesn't look good on the stat sheet, it has nothing to do with Carr's ability, rather than it is the receivers who are the issue, the running game struggling, the OC, the playcalling, an injury.

Its the same story with every time. If Carr looks good it is because of him being a passing GOD, and if he doesn't look good it is because of everything outside of his control.

1

If you actually read what I wrote, you'll see that I'm not nitpicking. If he wants to use statistics to say luck is better, he can't single out one or two aspects to point to luck being better, but ignore the others. E.g. he can't look at YPA, but ignore paser rating and touchdown to interception ratio.

Drops are a very relevant criteria to YPA, which I've specified many times. You keep saying that I'm blaming everyone else, but you're ignoring the facts I'm giving you. The Raiders have lead/been close to the lead in drops since Carr has come into the league. He's either first or second (per PFF, I'll have to find the link).

Nitpicking stats is when you make an argument by making some points and ignore other relevant ones. I'm not the one making an argument to begin with (he's saying Carr is overrated and propping up Luck in doing so), other than saying that he's not painting the full picture. Are there metrics where Luck is better than Carr (YPA, yards per game)? Sure there are. But to use those to form and argument and ignore other obvious ones where Carr has the edge (e.g. touchdown to interception ratio/passer rating, completion percentage) is cherry picking.

I do find it funny that he brought up that Carr had an abysmal year with a passer rating of 86.5 last year, when it's only two points lower than Luck's career average. Don't you? Is pointing that out "cherry picking"?

I didn't bring up the running game once. Our OC was really, really bad last year. If you don't believe me, ask any Raiders fan how the playcalling was compared to the year before, or how they ignored play-action passing, which is one of Carr's strengths. Todd Downing was so bad as an OC, that he couldn't land a positional coaching job this year.

All of those things can be true and it doesn't mean I'm saying Carr is a god (terrible strawman by the way). He obviously has a lot of room to grow and improve. But I won't let people spew garbage about him when it's unsubstantiated. I will call them out.

Look, if you don't like Carr, I have no problem with that. What I do have a problem with are terrible takes that aren't substantiated in a meaningful way. If you want to use stats, fine. Paint the whole picture. If you want to use film/the eye test, by all means. But understand the context of his play/the production.

And guys, for the record, Danand has a disliking of Derek Carr which goes back to me dumping on Flacco for being mediocre the past several years. Otherwise, he would see that clearly the other guy doesn't have a valid argument and would stay out of this. I can quote multiple posts from the old forum to illustrate Danand's "love" for Carr, and how it irks him so much that I defend Carr that he has to point it out on a football forum where fans defend their favorite teams/players.

[Xmad]

Holy derailed topics.

Every QB who makes over 15 million a year is overpaid, especially the Andy Daltons of the NFL.

Oh and Aaron Donald if he ever gets paid/any Defender who makes more than 3 defensive starters combined. (Von Miller, Khalil Mack probably etc.)

[MrOaktown_56]

44 minutes ago, megatechpc said:

First four season for Luck and Carr, including three playoff appearances and an AFCCG for Luck (Carr has never played a playoff game) and Luck had 13 more wins than Carr.

Yes you are right. And he's had 9 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in the playoffs with an astonishing passer rating of 70.8.

  You can whine about drops and supposed easy divisions all you want, the results are right there. 

Luck has played the 26th hardest schedule on average. Carr has played the 7th hardest. But wins are wins. You're right.

This was a Colts team that had won TWO games in 2011, the year before Luck showed up.  That's what winners do; they win.  Carr took over a 4-12 Raiders team and went ----- 3-13 in his first year.  You really don't see a difference?  

"Winners" don't play in a division with Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Alex Smith. They play in a division a murder's row of qb's featuring Jake Locker,  Blaine Gabbert, Zach Mettenberger, Chad Henne, Blake Bortles, Matt Schaub, Brian Hoyer, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

You also only cherry pick the stats that you want to talk about, but conveniently ignore the fact that Luck has thrown 30 more TDs and 4400 more yards than Carrr in just 8 more games. 

And only 24 more picks. But who's counting right?

That massive advantage in rating that you keep talking about is 87.5 vs 87.3.

On 8/19/2018 at 7:15 PM, megatechpc said:

 Carr also has a career rating of 87.5 which is solidly mediocre to be brutally honest. (cough cough Luck's is 87.3)

1

 You realize that I only brought up passer rating because you said that Carr's career passer rating is "solidly mediocre", yet it's basically the same as Luck's. I never one said it makes him better. I just found it funny how you tried to discredit him with it, when Luck's is just as "mediocre".

  Wow.  Also don't mention that Luck has taken an absolute beating in every game of his career (including sustaining a lacerated freaking kidney) while Carr has played behind one of the better OLs in the NFL for his career.

Ah yes, just as you didn't bring up that Carr has lead/nearly lead the league in drops since he entered into it. Funny how that works isn't it?

5

 

[BleedTheClock]

On 8/18/2018 at 1:31 AM, VanS said:

IMO Matt Ryan has never been anywhere close to a top 5 QB in terms of talent in my opinion. 

Tom Brady.

Drew Brees.

 

Those two guys don't have top 5 "talent".