2019 Draft Discussion

[MantyWrestler]

10 hours ago, KManX89 said:

Why not? A top 5-10 talent who the idea of falling to our 12nd pick was unheard of until WF did their latest 2019 mock and happens to fill a need.

I thought people wanted us to go BPA after all these FA signings?

Who says he’s BPA?

[Packer_ESP]

Just now, Fl0nkerton said:

LOL yeah, close to school colors at least.

Cool, thanks for posting it btw, it's very helpful for those of us that have watched limited tape. I'm probably gonna use it as the base for my own if that's ok with you since I'll probably just move one or two guys around.

[Fl0nkerton]

5 minutes ago, Packer_ESP said:

Cool, thanks for posting it btw, it's very helpful for those of us that have watched limited tape. I'm probably gonna use it as the base for my own if that's ok with you since I'll probably just move one or two guys around.

Yeah, of course! I'm definitely interested to see others as well.

[PossibleCabbage]

14 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

Who says he’s BPA?

I mean, "BPA" is a silly way to draft?  Like what if Kyler Murray were available at 12 and Dwayne Haskins at 30- are you going to spend 2 first round picks on quarterbacks?  Best Value Available is generally want people mean when they say "BPA" and that takes into account things like "positional value" and "who he replaces on the roster" and "scheme fit."

Which is to say we're not taking Metcalf.  Marquise Brown at 30 might be in play though, if Gutey has just thrown out all the old height requirements (he did with Jaire).

[MantyWrestler]

40 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

But I mean, say you pick 26th, so 25 players are going to go before you pick (unless you trade up).  So you should have at least 26 players you are willing to take in the first round.  Why don't we call that set "first round grades"?

 Not really. You might feel there are only 10 players in your top 2 tiers. Those might be equal to 1st round grades normally for you. At 26, everyone left for you has second round talent. 

Lets take the last two years for example. Taven Bryan was picked 29th last year. No way he gets picked there this year with the talent at DL. So, was he really “worth” the 29th pick or was he best available? In this years draft he’s not “worth” a first round pick. Was his value increased last year? Might be really only worth a second but last year might have been a down year for talent. 

All this doesn’t mean a lot because you draft the best option at each pick but it lets a team know when to try and move out knowing their board and the level of talent available. 

I’ll also add, teams grade a player. That grade for them gets drafted at a certain spot on average. Therefore if a team tracks drafts you can see how a player stacks up and how strong a draft is. Also let’s you see where value starts and ends in a draft.

[Victor1124]

11 hours ago, KManX89 said:

ZOMG, guys, WalterFootball's latest mock has D.K. Metcalf being available at 12. I'm serious.

If, by some miracle he does actually make it to our 12th pick IRL, am I right to assume you guys wouldn't pass on him?

I would pass. He is way too stiff for me and we already have plenty of tall guys who can run well. I think there will be value there at other positions and I think they could be looking for a shifty slot type wideout which they could get later than 12. 

[MantyWrestler]

10 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, "BPA" is a silly way to draft?  Like what if Kyler Murray were available at 12 and Dwayne Haskins at 30- are you going to spend 2 first round picks on quarterbacks?  Best Value Available is generally want people mean when they say "BPA" and that takes into account things like "positional value" and "who he replaces on the roster" and "scheme fit."

Which is to say we're not taking Metcalf.  Marquise Brown at 30 might be in play though, if Gutey has just thrown out all the old height requirements (he did with Jaire).

Jaime missed by what?, 1/4”. 

My point was, who says Metcalf is the best player available? I don’t. He’s a freaky fast straight line runner for his size but not much wiggle for sure. 

[Leader]

Ben Fennell‏:

WR Top-5 Categories.... 2019 NFL Draft

Speed, Slot, Gadget
1. Deebo Samuel
2. Andy Isabella
3. Tony Pollard
4. Mecole Hardman
5. Kelvin McKnight

Straight Speed
1. Marquise Brown
2. Parris Campbell
3. Emanuel Hall
4. Gary Jennings
5. Darius Slayton

Win Within the Route
1. AJ Brown
2. Terry McLaurin
3. KeeSean Johnson
4. Riley Ridley
5. Jacobi Meyers

Zach Kruse:
McLaurin is going to be a great Packer

[MantyWrestler]

I brought this up last year and it didn’t happen but I’d like to see what people think.

There is a law of averages I can’t remember but it says basically that the more guesses you get the closer you get to being correct. Get 2 people to guess how many marbles in a jar and your average will be way off. Get 1,000,000 people to guess and the average will be VERY close to accurate. 

What id like to do is have an many people as possible give their top 50-100 players and give them average grades in tiers like the Packers and build a draft board. We then skip the Mock Drafts and see how we do in the real draft for the Packers picks. We take our best value for their picks. Then see how well we do in the long run.  

Thoughts?

[Leader]

3 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

I brought this up last year and it didn’t happen but I’d like to see what people think.

There is a law of averages I can’t remember but it says basically that the more guesses you get the closer you get to being correct. Get 2 people to guess how many marbles in a jar and your average will be way off. Get 1,000,000 people to guess and the average will be VERY close to accurate. 

What id like to do is have an many people as possible give their top 50-100 players and give them average grades in tiers like the Packers and build a draft board. We then skip the Mock Drafts and see how we do in the real draft for the Packers picks. We take our best value for their picks. Then see how well we do in the long run.  

Thoughts?

Not me. Way too much work.

[JQ1]

Thanks Fl0nkerton, for the cool value board projection. I’m a visual person so it’s really helpful and interesting for me!

I won’t pretend to know much, other than what I read about the draft and college prospects. But I can easily see the Packers using one of those first rounds picks on O-lineman. And if there are two O-lineman than they think would be a good match for the MLF/Hackett scheme, I wouldn’t be shocked if maybe even two of their first three picks-12, 30, 44.

 You still have to start with winning at the LOS. And if in fact LaFleur is committed to the run game, the Packers have to bolster their current roster AND look ahead to next year when Bulaga is a FA.

Also, I see LOTS of good players on your board in those “meat and potatoes” higher/middle rounds. I’m excited to see how GUTE uses those picks. He may even talk about the process a bit in the aftermath, unlike his historically stoic predecessor!

We shall see...

 

[MantyWrestler]

4 minutes ago, Leader said:

Not me. Way too much work.

Just have to get as many top 50’s as possible. Then break into tiers. I’ve also thought about using a composite big board from the experts. Bet it would be as good as any one board. 

[Leader]

Just now, MantyWrestler said:

Just have to get as many top 50’s as possible. Then break into tiers. I’ve also thought about using a composite big board from the experts. Bet it would be as good as any one board. 

Not dissing the thought or anything personal - but its not for me as I just dont have the depth of knowledge and dont intend to put in the research time.

[Fl0nkerton]

13 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

I brought this up last year and it didn’t happen but I’d like to see what people think.

There is a law of averages I can’t remember but it says basically that the more guesses you get the closer you get to being correct. Get 2 people to guess how many marbles in a jar and your average will be way off. Get 1,000,000 people to guess and the average will be VERY close to accurate. 

What id like to do is have an many people as possible give their top 50-100 players and give them average grades in tiers like the Packers and build a draft board. We then skip the Mock Drafts and see how we do in the real draft for the Packers picks. We take our best value for their picks. Then see how well we do in the long run.  

Thoughts?

I'd be down.

[Fl0nkerton]

3 minutes ago, JQ1 said:

Thanks Fl0nkerton, for the cool value board projection. I’m a visual person so it’s really helpful and interesting for me!

I won’t pretend to know much, if anything about the draft and college prospects, but I can easily see the Packers using one of those first rounds picks on O-lineman. I wouldn’t be shocked if maybe even two of their first three picks-12, 30, 44. 

Also, LOTS of good players still showing on your board in those “meat and potatoes” higher/middle rounds. I’m excited to see how GUTE uses those picks, and he may even talk about the process a bit in the aftermath, unlike his historically stoic predecessor!

We shall...

 

Oh yeah, I could see Gute going OT in one of the first 3 rounds. I believe that GB as a franchise hasn't taken an IOL until the 4th and beyond historically so I tried to put most of the Guards and Centers in that tier. Wish it was April already.