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thebestever6

Game Day Thread: week 5 Broncos at Jets

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Posted (edited)

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2-2 , second in AFC West

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1-3 4th AFC East

Keys to victory '

- win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their defense can give us fits in the secondary but as long as we win in the trenches we should be able to establish the ground game and dominate top. 

- getting off to a fast start. It's no secret the Jets have a rookie qb and he's been turning the ball over. I think we need to get off to a fast start and he will press to make plays. Allowing von and company to feast.

- win the turnover battle. Case has to play at least serviceable.  The easiest way to lose to an inferior team is to lose the turnover battle.

 

My prediction- I truly think the Jets coaching is superior to ours therefore the game will wind up closer then it should be . 

Broncos 24 to 17.

 

Edited by thebestever6

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Posted (edited)

While that was a crushing L, and our weaknesses were exposed the last 2 weeks to demonstrate why we've got a ways to go before we can be true contenders, this is certainly a 50-50 game that we can get a W from.   Having said that, there are some real mismatch issues we have to deal with, too...although we definitely caught a break or 2 this week.

So, the areas where we can exploit:

1.  Their OL is struggling as much as ours is in pass pro - Sam Darnold has had a very promising 1st game, and well, he's been running for his life since then.  And it's simply because their OL isn't that good in pass blocking (we know that feeling well).   They rank 21st in DVOA in pass blocking, and the eye test shows it too.   Combine the usual learning curve with a rookie QB, this is where our pass rush should get healthy.    In particular, their RT Brandon Shell should get targeted by our EDGEs often this week.

2.   NYJ loses CB Trumaine Johnson - their secondary with their top 3 CB's and Marcus Maye / Jamal Adams as their safeties is a very formidable secondary - but they're thin, and so losing Trumaine Johnson this week is a huge break for us, also because it means either DT or Sutton get to face plenty of Buster Skrine, which presents a big size mismatch (of course, we need Keenum to throw it in the general vicinity to take advantage).   

3.   Our run game can exploit their run D - while their DL is stout, their ILB's are fast but undersized - so our power run blocking game is a great fit to grind out a game if we can get an early lead (which for all of our struggles on pass pro, we should recognize the OL excels there).   

4.   Our TE coverage issues seem to catch a break this week - as their TE's are young, inexperienced, and while we're still exposed in a huge way with TE coverage, well, if we can't at least keep this to a draw, hard to see much hope here. 

5.  Our team just played with amazing heart and with zero quit against KC.    And our youngest players (or our leaders signed long-term) are our best players.    That's something I hope to see us continue even as they face adversity in what's shaping up to be a non-contender season.   Some teams can be a 8-8 team and give plenty of 2019+ hope - or be a team that looks stuck in neutral.   While we are at 2-2 and really look like a .500 team overall, we look so far like the former than latter - this game will help define if that hope is building. 

6.  Overall I think our team is deeper than NYJ.

 

Now, the areas where the Jets can give us trouble:

1.  Their DL vs. our OL in pass pro - while the PFF ratings suggest the OL is playing better than seen on tape - it's mostly due to our interior OL play and facing weak opponents.    The eye test shows that our T's have been a huge weak spot continuously in pass pro, and it's actually borne out by a deeper look into our OL pass pro - by DVOA, we rank 18th overall.  Which sounds mediocre - but it's even worse, when you factor in that the 4 DL's we faced (SEA, OAK, BAL & KC) have the 19th, 21st, 23rd and 31st pass rush DL's in the league by DVOA  (and imagine how they'd rank if they didn't get to face us).   Why does this matter so much?   While the LB's for NYJ are their weak spot (and losing T-Johnson is a big break for us), the Jets DL of Steve McClendon, Henry Anderson, rookie Nathan Sheperd and of course, their beast Leonard Williams, have them going from 1 of the worst pass rush DL's last year, to #11 so far in 2018.   So while on paper from 2017, this appears like it's an easier matchup, it's actually going to be a good test of how our OL pass pro will fare.  The one silver lining is that their EDGE's are the weakest part of their pass rush (but IIRC they go to more of a 4-3 in pass rush to take advantage of their DE depth).   But either way, this a huge matchup to watch.   I'm encouraged that Billy Turner had a 2nd straight good 2H subbing in for for Jared Veldheer.  Having said that, now that the Jets know he's there, it will be interesting to see how they try to attack him and Bolles (as much as we likely are to do the same with their RT).

2. Their RB's vs. our pass coverage / run D - NYJ boasts 2 serviceable RB's - Isiaih Crowell as the thunder power back, and Bilal Powell as their versatile threat.   Powell was battling injury when we saw him last year, and so he didn't factor in.  But he's an absolute threat in the pass game, and so our weakness there will be tested.

3.  Their secondary are incredibly opportunistic - while no T-Johnson helps us, make no mistake - Mo-Claiborne and the 2 safeties are ball-hawks who will take advantage of late reads / bad throws by Keenum.   The pass game presents a mismatch elsewhere, but Keenum just can't be as bad as he's been Weeks 1-4 with those 3 around.   Hopefully OC Musgrave can create mismatches that exploit the other weak parts of the Jets secondary

4.   Their WR depth seems like a bunch of no-names - but their slot WR Quincy Enunwa is a guy who has given teams fits, he's been very elusive - CB Jalen Ramsey kept him limited, but he's kinda special lol.  If we were really smart, we'd match up CHJ with him.   The issue is that then their 2nd WR, Robbie Anderson, poses a huge matchup problem with Roby, because of his size advantage.   Their 3rd WR, Terrelle Pryor, is a mercurial talent who just has underwhelmed, I'd hope our struggling 3rd CB's could cover him.  

5.  Their ST play is outstanding - they are a top 3 unit overall, and top 3 in punt coverage and punt returns.   Given we have a rookie playing his first game, and how both O's struggle, winning/losing the field position game will be huge on Sunday.

6.  The early game bugaboo - we came out flat, and Keenum looked like he was sleepwalking through the BAL game.  We can't have a repeat of that type of slow start this week, no matter that NYJ isn't nearly as talented as the Ravens are.

7.  We’ve been out coached pretty much every game (and last week our otherwise excellent OC went away from the power run game when we had them on the ropes, and the DC who had called an awesome game plan brain cramped the final 2 drives big time).


All in all, keys to the game:

1.  Get the lead early so we can avoid leaning on Keenum - and instead lean on our power run game.

2.  Get pressure on Darnold, and on the flip side, get help for our T's to give Keenum clean looks.

3.  Keenum just has to be better than he's been.   It sucks to say this, but if we have to rely on him to carry the O, well, we're not in good shape.   I'd say win the TO battle - but frankly, so far, it's been pretty much all on Keenum.   So his play encompasses that part. 

4.  Key on Enunwa with CHJ & the RB's, and pray that Roby can continue his improved play from KC (along with the other CB's) on Robbie Anderson, Terrelle Pryor and the TE's.

5.  Win the field position game on ST's.

 

_____________________________________________

I agree with the premise that NYJ will likely outcoach us, and we have to recognize HFA's effect, and us travelling for an early game, I think it's 23-20 type game.   My head says it's the Jets who come on top, but my heart says maybe we can just shrink the O enough so it won't be in Keenum's hands...in which case, we can be the victors.   Either way, this is very much a defining game for our season - while @ARI Week 6 is a very winnable game no matter the result, frankly, the schedule turns into a bear after that.  If we are 2-3 heading into ARI, frankly, it will send huge signals how 2018 isn't our year to contend to Elway & co. (I'm already there since last year, but we know Elway doesn't think that way).      Either way, I'm hoping to get off work early enough on Sunday to catch this live, with the early start.    

 

Edited by Broncofan

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I didn’t have much time to go in depth with my thoughts on the game.  All I know is for Denver to beat the Jets they have to score more points than them.

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I too agree with @Broncofan that our OL is going to be my area of focus, but more specifically on 3rd and long. Bad OL's don't travel well - that's a fact, so let's see if we can show we really have turned the corner. 

On Defense, the Jets are going to copy the Chiefs, I guarantee it. Press man coverage on the outside, blitz from the slot and say, "we don't think your OL can hold up long enough and even if they can, we don't think Case can make the throws to the outside to punish us".

You can be cute with playcalling for so long, but at some point a QB has to make outside throws from within the pocket to have success, especially on the road. Lets see if Case can finally do it.

On Defense, I like us in this game. Darnold excelled in the Lions game when the run game got going. Our Run Defense is still excellent. The Jets don't offer anything close to what the Chiefs do in the passing game which occupied our Run Defense significantly last week. I expect a lot of 3rd and long for the Jets which won't end well.

Low scoring game - 16-10 to someone, I just don't know who!

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I’ve done this a few times now, figured I’d do it again after the 1st quarter of the year.

Here’s Denver’s PFF grades.

QB: Keenum- 66.2-#25

RB: Freeman-76.2-#5

RB: Lindsay- 68.9-#20

FB: Janovich- 73.6-#3

WR: Sanders- 82.7-#9

WR: Thomas- 67.0-#47

WR: Sutton- 60.7-#74

TE: Heuerman- 56.1-#50

OT: Bolles- 66.1-#31

OG: Leary- 64.6-#29

OC:Paradis- 75.8-#2

OG: McGovern- 81.1-#1

OT: Veldheer- 68.5-#22

OT: Turner- 65.8-unranked 

DE: Wolfe- 63.1-#71

DT: Peko- 68.6-#50

DT: Harris- 80.6-#19

DT: Kerr- 69.1-#46

DE: Gotsis- 54.5-#93

OLB: Miller- 70.3-#37

OLB: Chubb- 64.8-#51

OLB: Barrett- 71.6-#32

OLB: Ray- 71.2-#35

ILB: Marshall- 58.2-#49

ILB: Davis- 54.2-#55

ILB: Jewell- 89.4-#2

CB: Harris- 74.1-#16

CB: Roby- 58.1-#80

CB: Jones- 58.5-#76

CB: Yiadom- 71.0-unranked

S: Simmons- 65.7-#42

S: Stewart- 63.2-#50

S: Parks- 60.5-#59

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I think this could be a make or break game for Joseph - the schedule doesn't get any easier after this game - if the Broncos lose it I think Elway will just be biding his time before giving Joseph the boot, trying to pick the right moment before things completely fall off a cliff.

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Headed to the game this weekend!  Expect Broncos to win, as they’ve never lost a game I’ve attended.  That would only be 2 prior games, lol, but heh, you look for good omens wherever you can find them?

Dont underestimate the Jets incredible ability to ****** defeat from the jaws of victory.  They seem to be headed in the right direction, but ineptitude is embedded deep in the DNA of this team.  These are 2 mediocre, at best, teams, and I expect it will be a pretty ugly, defense dominated game.  Normally, with the early east coast road game, I’d give the advantage to the Broncos opponent.  But the jets are the one team I can see finding a way to lose to the Broncos.  

Von gets a late strip sack fumble in Jets territory, Keenum to Sutton for DPI in the end zone, Freeman in from the 1 for the late score and the Broncos come from behind for an ugly 20-17 victory over the hapless J-E-T-S.

Hopefully, I escape without a Beer Shower from the always congenial NY fans?

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Darnold can be a turnover machine at times. But like Mahomes he can extend the play outside the pocket. 

Need to keep leaning on the run game on offense but Keenum has got to get back on track.

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11 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

I think this could be a make or break game for Joseph - the schedule doesn't get any easier after this game - if the Broncos lose it I think Elway will just be biding his time before giving Joseph the boot, trying to pick the right moment before things completely fall off a cliff.

Good point. If this is a loss, the Rams game the next week could be Vance's last game. It could be Joe Woods' last game, and it should be Case Keenum's last game as starter if he isn't playing well.

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I'd really like to see us alter our approach on what are passing downs. 

We're ripping off big chunks of yardage on the ground way too often to be passing on what would normally be passing downs, 2nd and 8, 3rd and ten....................

TD made a career running on passing downs. As well as we're running between the tackles we shouldn't ever feel constrained.

Also, having an empty backfield with this team is about as absurd a formation as you can get.

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Man, even if Denver ends up struggling all year, this rookie class is exactly what this franchise needed.  

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5 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Man, even if Denver ends up struggling all year, this rookie class is exactly what this franchise needed.  

I'll take this every year especially when you have udfa finds

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