Is it too early to focus on the 19 draft?

[e16bball]

19 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

Thank you @e16bball. Well said (*)

 

(*) except the bit about wins as a team stat. We just disagree

Almost tagged you in that part, almost as much as I almost tagged MKnight when I said Sweat was better than Marcus Davenport 😂

We all have our positions we’ve staked out over the years, that’s for sure. 

[turtle28]

Marcus Davenport! Lol 😂 

That guy has a long way to prove he deserves to be a starter in the NFL. So glad we too Payne over that guy!

[turtle28]

Rosen would be the 2nd or 3rd QB off the board by most people’s estimation in this draft and so he’d be a top 10 pick in the last two drafts but he’s not worth spending a the 15th pick on this year, sorry?

Not going to agree with that one.

Rosen had an inconsistent rookie season bc he went to the worst team in football with a rookie HC, that’s more indicative of how bad the team was around him than how poorly he played. Also, most rookie QBs struggle anyways but they show some flashes of their potential to be a good to great QB and Rosen certainly did that despite playing in an awful system without much talent around him and behind an awful offensive line.

The offense took a major step back in scheme from Arians to what they had last year as a scheme and their WRs outside of the over the hill Fitz were poor at best. They didn’t have a good TE and David Johnson wasn’t the same as he was before he tore his ACL. Sure, but let’s blame a rookie QB because he struggled as a rookie and did so with the worst team in football...

Break me off a piece of that Kit Kat bar and give me a break!

 

[MKnight82]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

Almost tagged you in that part, almost as much as I almost tagged MKnight when I said Sweat was better than Marcus Davenport 😂

We all have our positions we’ve staked out over the years, that’s for sure. 

I played UTSA in NCAA Football 14 so many times I had to be all in on Davenport.  

[Woz]

6 hours ago, turtle28 said:

12 hours ago, offbyone said:

If you graded Rosen as a 1st round pick last year then essentially you think he is a qb who has the potential to be a franchise qb.  In that case, trading for him is probably worth a 1st round pick unless you saw something egregious with the cardinals last year.

Boom! Thank you! If you liked the guy last year and would've spent a first last year on him and other teams are willing to give up their first this year, then hello! That's his market! If you want Rosen, it might mean you have go give up your 1st for him and it makes sense bc he's a first round QB. 

You could do that ... but then you are paying too much (unless you are New England when it's essentially a 2nd round pick).

Keep in mind, you potentially have to "unteach" him things he learned in Arizona, and you have one less year on his contract than a first round QB this year has. That devalues the pick.

But if you guys want to spend a first on Rosen, so be it. Just realize you would be bailing Arizona out of a mess of their own making.

[Woz]

1 hour ago, MKnight82 said:

I played UTSA in NCAA Football 14 so many times I had to be all in on Davenport.  

Go Road Runners! (and if you think I looked that up, you're wrong)

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

Go Road Runners! (and if you think I looked that up, you're wrong)

[PARROTHEAD]

Anyone checking out Haskins pro day?

He has a text book dropback and throw. Trying to think of someone to compare him to in the way he does, Phillip Rivers seems like a good name to toss out. With his arm too. He likes throwing hard into guys like Rivers on shorter passes. Less finesse, more power. Im liking this guy more than I did.

[Thaiphoon]

3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Rosen would be the 2nd or 3rd QB off the board by most people’s estimation in this draft and so he’d be a top 10 pick in the last two drafts but he’s not worth spending a the 15th pick on this year, sorry?

Not going to agree with that one.

Rosen had an inconsistent rookie season bc he went to the worst team in football with a rookie HC, that’s more indicative of how bad the team was around him than how poorly he played. Also, most rookie QBs struggle anyways but they show some flashes of their potential to be a good to great QB and Rosen certainly did that despite playing in an awful system without much talent around him and behind an awful offensive line.

The offense took a major step back in scheme from Arians to what they had last year as a scheme and their WRs outside of the over the hill Fitz were poor at best. They didn’t have a good TE and David Johnson wasn’t the same as he was before he tore his ACL. Sure, but let’s blame a rookie QB because he struggled as a rookie and did so with the worst team in football...

Break me off a piece of that Kit Kat bar and give me a break!

 

But he's not coming out this season.

He came out last season. 

Yes. He struggled. For whatever reason. Even though we agree on the reason. But again, he now has bad NFL tape on him whereas those in this draft dont. 

And his team seems eager to get rid of him after a year. They are motivated to sell.

I'll give you an example of how you dont pay retail when the seller is eager to move.

When my wife and I were looking to buy our home in Loudoun Co., we realized the home prices were astronomical in many areas. We avoided them and focused on more moderate housing. The house we eventually bought was valued at around $500k. Most of the other homes were going for list or list+ (only one was below list)

But we found out that the sellers (who only had the house for two years) needed to sell quickly because they had been ordered to by the judge in their divorce case. We initially offered $420k. We settled at $430k.

Why? 

Because they needed to sell so they xan go on with their lives.

Had we been the buyers 2 years prior, we would've paid close to list (it was new development that we had looked at and liked two years prior but decided not to buy it at the time). Instead, because it was slightly used and the sellers needed it gone, and we knew that...we offered and paid for the same house for much,much, less.

Same philosophy applies here.

Pats are the only one who could make the deal. But would be tremendously stupid to do so. Brady will play another 3 years at least. So you spend a 1st on a player who basically never plays for you? Yeah...that's smart...

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Rosen had an inconsistent rookie season

It wasn't inconsistent. He was consistently bad. His best passer rating in a single game all season was 88.5, in his first game, which is a decent, mildly below-average passer rating. Somewhere between 2018 Andy Dalton and 2018 Alex Smith. He actually ranked 8th in the league in Total QBR that week. The stat line, which was, again, his best of the season: 15/27, 180 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs. 

After that, once teams had a little film on him to work with, things went a bit downhill. His weekly passer rating and Total QBR (with weekly ranking):

 

Week 5: 77.1 rating; 36.7 total QBR (21st of 30)

Week 6: 77.4 rating; 29.3 total QBR (24th of 30)

Week 7: 44.2 rating; 2.2 total QBR (28th of 28)

Week 8: 82.5 rating; 36.8 total QBR (21st of 28)

Week 10: 58.5 rating; 35.3 total QBR (23rd of 28)

Week 11: 67.9 rating; 3.6 total QBR (27th of 27)

Week 12: 73.4 rating; 28.8 total QBR (28th of 31)

Week 13: 61.2 rating; 38.0 total QBR (20th of 31)

Week 14: 69.2 rating; 27.1 total QBR (31st of 33)

Week 15: 38.4 rating; 3.3 total QBR (32nd of 32)

Week 16: 61.3 rating; 46.3 total QBR (21st of 32)

Week 17: 74.3 rating; 12.5 total QBR (27th of 32)

 

It wasn't "inconsistent," "hit-or-miss," "up-and-down," "some struggles," or "some good and some bad." It was consistent, it was "all miss," it was "all down," it was "a constant struggle," and it was all bad. In his best weeks, he was able to rise almost to "solidly below-average." The sooner we can stop beating around that bush and call the season what it was -- absolutely awful -- the sooner we'll be able to have a meaningful discussion about him.

A discussion that will revolve around a couple issues, most prominently: (1) how much did a poor supporting cast contribute to his terrible performance; (2) how "poor" can a supporting case with David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald really be; (3) how bad was his coaching, and how much did that contribute to his terrible performance; (4) how likely do we think it is that a QB can be absolutely awful as a rookie and then rally to have a franchise QB career; and (5) what makes us think Josh Rosen + Redskins is the combination that will overcome his terrible start in the NFL.

I do think it's possible that he could salvage his career, which is why I'd still be willing to give up a decent price for him. But the idea that his value is anything remotely approaching what it was before the draft is bonkers to me.

[Woz]

46 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Anyone checking out Haskins pro day?

He has a text book dropback and throw. Trying to think of someone to compare him to in the way he does, Phillip Rivers seems like a good name to toss out. With his arm too. He likes throwing hard into guys like Rivers on shorter passes. Less finesse, more power. Im liking this guy more than I did.

Is it "I would willing to jump up to #3 or #4" levels of like, "I could easily be talked into jumping ahead of Miami and/or Cincinnati at #10" levels, or "if he inexplicably fell to us at 15 I would be screaming at them to turn the card in" levels?

[Woz]

18 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I do think it's possible that he could salvage his career, which is why I'd still be willing to give up a decent price for him. But the idea that his value is anything remotely approaching what it was before the draft is bonkers to me.

I had to like the analysis, even if I didn't like the end result (I'd be willing to roll the dice on a 2nd).

[e16bball]

7 minutes ago, Woz said:

I had to like the analysis, even if I didn't like the end result (I'd be willing to roll the dice on a 2nd).

I'm sticking with my original suggestion when the rumors started popping up: Rosen and their 4th for our 2nd and a conditional 2020 pick.

I think that's more than fair. Late 2nd round value according to any of the various pick value charts (both old and new). I don't see how they could ask for anything more in their position.

[PARROTHEAD]

2 minutes ago, Woz said:

Is it "I would willing to jump up to #3 or #4" levels of like, "I could easily be talked into jumping ahead of Miami and/or Cincinnati at #10" levels, or "if he inexplicably fell to us at 15 I would be screaming at them to turn the card in" levels?

If we jumped in front of Miami to nab him. Id be happy with the pick and what it cost us. And not feel like we gave up anything to make the move.

I do not want the Giants to get him and have to deal with him for the next dozen years.

But then Im for his and Rivers style of play. See so many qbs go in their prodays showing they can be cute with the ball, how much touch they can muster. Haskins is no nonsense, "Screw that cute mess, Im flinging this puppy." Making it look like he was built to fire into those quick slants and crossing patterns where theres heavy traffic.

[Woz]

5 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I'm sticking with my original suggestion when the rumors started popping up: Rosen and their 4th for our 2nd and a conditional 2020 pick.

I think that's more than fair. Late 2nd round value according to any of the various pick value charts (both old and new). I don't see how they could ask for anything more in their position.

Honestly asking: What do you think the base of the conditional to be? What's the high end? What are the triggers?