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Broncos @ Bengals GDT

broncosfan07

By broncosfan07
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lomaxgrUK

lomaxgrUK

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Posted

I think the fact that I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see us lose this game shows where I believe we are as a team. Reality is, a team with playoff intentions should never lose this game. The Bengals are (likely) down their starting QB and they are reeling. That said, we just haven't been good enough on the road in environments that are actually befitting of a road game. 

We need to replicate exactly what the Browns did - jump on the 'wounded animal' early, turn up the pressure on a backup QB with very limited experience and feast. Arizona is the only game we've done that this year. 

If we don't turn the ball over and we limit Joe Mixon, we really shouldn't lose this game.

 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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7 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I think the fact that I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see us lose this game shows where I believe we are as a team. Reality is, a team with playoff intentions should never lose this game. The Bengals are (likely) down their starting QB and they are reeling. That said, we just haven't been good enough on the road in environments that are actually befitting of a road game. 

We need to replicate exactly what the Browns did - jump on the 'wounded animal' early, turn up the pressure on a backup QB with very limited experience and feast. Arizona is the only game we've done that this year. 

If we don't turn the ball over and we limit Joe Mixon, we really shouldn't lose this game.

 

While it didn't start this way until about 2 weeks ago, this game pretty much is a redux of the ARI game, minus the fact that ARI's talent is far, far worse than CIN's - but on paper, this is game we should win...if we don't do what more talented teams have done against us the last 2 weeks, and lose the TO/game decision mistake battle.

Key areas that can give us trouble:

1.  Is AJ Green going to return? - With an identical 5-6 record, even with Andy Dalton out, CIN is probably still in win-now mode, especially since the AFC North is a mess in general.   That means they're unlikely to shut him down for RoS, as some have speculated on in the main FF.     Now, he may not be 100 percent - but if Green is there, it just creates bigger matchup problems.   We know Harris can neutralize the slot guy in 3-wide WR sets (where he plays almost exclusively), but we still have matchup issues elsewhere, and if Tyler Boyd & John Ross go down the pecking order, that's where we have trouble.

2.  Joe Mixon & Gio Bernard - say what you will about his off-field history, Mixon is a dude that can play, elite level talent.    We've had trouble against elite talent RB's, and he certainly fits the bill.  It's also why AJ Green being in/out is so huge, because it creates balance issues for them - teams will just stack the box and dare the backup QB Jeff Driskel to beat us in the pass game, and take Mixon out.   One area we've started to see CIN use more - pairing up Gio Bernard and Mixon, which makes a ton of sense - and if they continue, would pose more problems for us in pass coverage.  

3. Driskel's mobility - he's a backup QB, so I wouldn't get too overboard on worrying about his 2H performance - it's normal for backups to add juice to a team when a D hasn't had a chance to scout them out, it's what happens when teams get more film and prepare for that guy specifally that matters more (Latest example:  Nick Mullens).      But one area where he can negate our pass rush - he's very mobile, and if the OL gets Cordy Glenn back (who was out last week), that obviously helps their O.

4. Geno Atkins & Jesse Bates - Atkins is often overlooked, but the dude's still a beast - another top 10 season in the books, and outside of Donald, no one is more disruptive inside (on par with Fletcher Cox, elite company).   Bates is the ball-hawking S that justified them cutting George Illoka in the preseason, and he's vindicated the FO there, as he's been an absolute elite force in the middle.    They will need both to have big games, given the holes that have ravaged their D (more on that later).

5.  Our loss of variety in the pass game weaponry with Heurmann's injury - there's no doubt that Sutton is just learning on the job as the X, and that's totally OK.   But the bigger loss is Heurmann, who added a 3rd reliable weapon and safety valve.   Plus, the CIN ILB crew has been decimated, so it really set up well as a huge matchup plus for us.  Nothing against Matt Lacosse & Brian Parker, but they haven't come on nearly as much as Heurmann did - and they don't help nearly as much in the run block game as 82 did.   Sucks for us ... other than offering the chance we can re-sign him to a very team-friendly deal.

6.  Keenum - he's been mistake-free the last 2 games, but that's also been some good fortune, as we've had 3 tipped passes and/or strip sacks each game where the ball's landed on the ground, or we've recovered.  Keenum's still the same guy who's late on reads, and really only sees guys who are open, his placement and anticipation are pretty much non-existent.   So, on the road, that's obviously a big issue if he can keep it going.  

7.  Early road games - we know the score here, always tougher for our guys.

Now, those are the problems, but to be clear, they are still nowhere enough to change the fact we are favorites, for fewer reasons, but which are more impactful:

1.  Our run game  vs. their ILB's - with the loss of Carl Lawson at DE, both their pass rush and their run D are vulnerable, as their LB corps has really struggled.    Nick Vigil is their run stopping and pass coverage stud who's missed the last 3 games and it shows, while the cheap shot artist Burfict is finally slowing down with injuries, and is a shell of himself.    The key part is that MLB Hardy Nickerson is an awful Mike right now - he did get benched last week, which would be bad for us - except their sub, Vincent Ray, is even worse.  The curious decision is that they have a good young LB - Malik Jefferson, who should be seeing more time - but that's Marvin Lewis (and Hue Jackson now!) for you (probably can't call the D formations for Mike, but no reason why he shouldn't be playing more).  Either way, though - that's a prime matchup for our run game  &  RB pass game to exploit (and had Huermann being active, our short pass game).  If Vigil returns, then it's not nearly as unbalanced, but this is still a matchup where I'd expect 30-35 touches & targets from our RB's combined.

2.  CIN's pass rush issues - Atkins is a beast, no doubt.  Carlos Dunlap still brings heat, too.   But losing Carl Lawson really has affected their pass rush, and Michael Johnson looks like the mileage has caught up.  A huge reason why they were dominant early was they had Lawson as an outside pass rush terror with Dunlap, and Atkins disrupting inside - until Lawson tore his ACL in the 2Q vs Tampa - you can point to that moment (along with the loss of Vigil on their ILB crew) as when CIN suddenly became a D to exploit.   It's been so much easier to neutralize CIN's pass rush with only 2 guys to account for.   Atkins poses a test for our new interior OL, but it's held up so far, so let's see how it goes.  

3.  Manny Sanders vs. their CB's - if CIN is smart, they'd bracket Sanders - because Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard and William Jackson as individuals don't match up well here.   It's disappointing that Jackson has regressed somewhat in his sophomore year.  This is a matchup #10 should win unless he's removed completely by bracket coverage.

4. It's still Jeff Driskel at QB - as much hope as he gave them last week, a backup who has a week of film for the opposition to game plan for, rarely does as well the following week.  With our pass rush, it's still a matchup we should win handily most weeks.   As I said before, if T Cordy Glenn plays, that's a big help to CIN, but this is still an area we should win.

5. Discipline - CIN is just a poorly coached team, year in and year out.   Unnecessary penalties, mistakes, and total me-first plays.   

Overall, while I expect travelling east, and if Vigil & T Glenn and of course, AJ Green, all return - then it's closer.  But we deserve to be favorites.  We don't lose the TO/mistake game, we should win something like 24-20.   If those 3 don’t play then we should win by 7+.   My main concern honestly is that Keenum isn't playing any better, we've just limited the risk of him making mistakes.   Time to see if that continues.

 

 

 

 

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TheVillain112

TheVillain112

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

3.  Manny Sanders vs. their CB's - if CIN is smart, they'd bracket Sanders - because Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard and William Jackson as individuals don't match up well here.   It's disappointing that Jackson has regressed somewhat in his sophomore year.  This is a matchup #10 should win unless he's removed completely by bracket coverage.

Pretty damn good write up.  I would disagree about WJIII though. He's been his usual self, our LBs are being targeted relentlessly in coverage though:

 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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59 minutes ago, TheVillain112 said:

Pretty damn good write up.  I would disagree about WJIII though. He's been his usual self, our LBs are being targeted relentlessly in coverage though:

 

I missed last week’s game - he had been slumping before that, no?  Those weeks 4-7 were before Lawson went down (and the pass rush was fierce), and I agree he was great.   With less pressure though, I'd noticed he was getting beat more (not that surprising).    Either way if he’s back to rookie form you wonder if he’d shadow Sanders.  Dennard & Kirkpatrick can’t cover Sanders 1 on 1.    Does Cin use shadow coverage?   Haven’t followed them enough to know (Mixon owner so I tune in more when they are on O but it’s hard to miss how bad their LB are).   

If Cin got Vigil back and played Jefferson 75+ percent of snaps I’d be very worried this is a trap game.    Of course now that Hue Jackson has more input on the D I would be shocked if he came up with the right personnel - he spent a whole year putting Jabril Peppers at FS and struggling mightily before 2018 DC-now-HC Greg Williams made the obvious assessment he’s a SS.  It’s hard to believe he suddenly will figure out who should play where in 3 weeks for a new team.  We’ll see.  

I look forward to seeing them play a full 60 mins.    

 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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2 hours ago, johndeere1707 said:

I’m picking up Keenum in fantasy 

 

31 minutes ago, champ11 said:

don't do it fam

Road QB who aren’t great skill wise - fantasy trap move.  Plus 1 of 2 matchups we would dominate in pass game (TE) we lost our one real weapon.   Seems like more of a Lindsay / Freeman game.  

Plus it’s week 13 - if this is a must win game I don’t know that you want to say you lost because you started Case Keenum.   Cin D has been awful so I get the attraction but if you lose it’s a far worse feeling that you put Keenum instead of a better QB with a tougher matchup (esp if that’s a home QB).  

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TheVillain112

TheVillain112

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54 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I missed last week’s game - he had been slumping before that, no?  Those weeks 4-7 were before Lawson went down (and the pass rush was fierce), and I agree he was great.   With less pressure though, I'd noticed he was getting beat more (not that surprising).    Either way if he’s back to rookie form you wonder if he’d shadow Sanders.  Dennard & Kirkpatrick can’t cover Sanders 1 on 1.    Does Cin use shadow coverage?   Haven’t followed them enough to know (Mixon owner so I tune in more when they are on O but it’s hard to miss how bad their LB are).   

If Cin got Vigil back and played Jefferson 75+ percent of snaps I’d be very worried this is a trap game.    Of course now that Hue Jackson has more input on the D I would be shocked if he came up with the right personnel - he spent a whole year putting Jabril Peppers at FS and struggling mightily before 2018 DC-now-HC Greg Williams made the obvious assessment he’s a SS.  It’s hard to believe he suddenly will figure out who should play where in 3 weeks for a new team.  We’ll see.  

I look forward to seeing them play a full 60 mins.    

Not saying WJIII has been flawless, but the majority of catches I've seen him give up is when he's lined up 5-10 yards off the LOS and the QB completes a quick pass to the receiver he's on.  I don't blame WJIII for those, it's on our coaches who are willing to concede everything underneath.  The majority of the time though, WJIII has been stellar this season.  WJIII, Bates, Geno, and Vigil are the only ones on defense that have been good.  Dennard, Billings and Dunlap have been good at times, but not consistent enough IMO.

Vigil is the key though.  Our defense was "bend but don't break" and OK at times but after he got hurt it completely fell off a cliff.  As for shadowing, they started finally doing it.  They also play more man coverage now.  I'm hoping we shadow Sanders with WJIII which is a real possibility (probably not 100% but hopefully 80% of the time at least).  If we don't I don't see how Sanders doesn't have a good game...

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