Tank or Try and Win Out (4-6-1 Edition)

[MacReady]

Just now, skibrett15 said:

you're arguing with the football equivalent of miss cleo... don't expect logic or reason to fit into that schema

There's no logic or reason behind the finer details of the cosmos.  Only a select few understand them.  I am the Ian Malcolm of football.  I know things that just aren't accepted yet.  It's a curse more than a blessing. 

[skibrett15]

Just now, Outpost31 said:

There's no logic or reason behind the finer details of the cosmos.  Only a select few understand them.  I am the Ian Malcolm of football.  I know things that just aren't accepted yet.  It's a curse more than a blessing. 

Dad?

[skibrett15]

start Kizer

[Gopher Trace]

I don't think the players should ever feel like not playing their hardest is acceptable, even if we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

The team should play to win no matter what, and getting into the playoffs even just for a one-and-done appearance is valuable in that it gives them playoff experience, which is huge to have in the future. Yet in the scenario we find ourselves in, I'm not convinced picking higher every round in the draft is not more valuable.

I hope they continue to play to win, and that they are at least good enough to beat AZ, NYJ, and DET. If they can't, then are even further behind than we thought.

At the same token, picking higher is more than enough consolation in my eyes for the games we lose from here on out.

[gizmo2012]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

 

Disturbing!

[Mr. Fussnputz]

56 minutes ago, Gopher Trace said:

I don't think the players should ever feel like not playing their hardest is acceptable, even if we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

The team should play to win no matter what, and getting into the playoffs even just for a one-and-done appearance is valuable in that it gives them playoff experience, which is huge to have in the future. Yet in the scenario we find ourselves in, I'm not convinced picking higher every round in the draft is not more valuable.

I hope they continue to play to win, and that they are at least good enough to beat AZ, NYJ, and DET. If they can't, then are even further behind than we thought.

At the same token, picking higher is more than enough consolation in my eyes for the games we lose from here on out.

Agree. Asking players to tank would cause turmoil in the locker room and they wouldn't do it anyways. They don't want to put bad tape out there. They want to use every play as a learning experience to improve. 

[Acrid Josher]

If you know you can go 5-0 it's no question- you do that every time. A shot at the playoffs is really the only logical goal of the regular season. But even if you miss the playoffs you have built confidence and chemistry in your returning players. The guys coming back next year will have a hungry chip on their shoulder instead of a bitter taste.

On paper, you'd rather go 0-5 than 4-1 to miss the playoffs. I'd estimate losing out we get the number ~7 pick, and winning 4/5 we'd get the number ~18 pick (plus those extra 10 or so spots each round).

But we don't play the game on paper. It's hard to quantify how finishing with a 4-11-1 record would impact the rookies on this team (Does someone like Jaire lose some of his edge seeing how little it mattered? Do MVS and ESB get resentful of Rodgers public chiding and plateau when he isn't playing at an elite level or getting results?) or veterans (How do guys like Bahk, Rodgers, Graham, etc feel seeing a season slip away with Rodgesr showing signs of decline)? You may think these things shouldn't matter to highly paid professionals- and it's probably true that many guys are mentally resilient enough to continue improving or at least maintaining a high level of play despite a dismal season ending on a 7-game losing streak- but it would be a mistake to think there wouldn't be negative psychological consequences for the players (not to mention the coaches, staff, and FO) if this team continued to spiral downward.

For those reasons I'll continue to root for this team to win until there is a good enough excuse to IR Rodgers, or until things go so badly that it's clear not even a morale victory can be achieved and the only thing left to salvage is a few spots in draft order.

[skibrett15]

1 minute ago, Acrid Josher said:

good enough excuse to IR Rodgers

immediately after any loss which mathematically eliminates them they should do this.

[Acrid Josher]

As an aside this website might be helpful for this thread:
http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

[Dubz41]

IR Cobb, Perry, King, Daniels.

Then play to win.

[TheBitzMan]

6 minutes ago, Dubz41 said:

IR Cobb, Perry, King, Daniels.

Then play to win.

Perry is already on IR. King needs to play if healthy, he doesn't have enough experience to IR if healthy. I wouldn't IR Cobb or Daniels until mathematically eliminated. On top of that none of them played this week anyways. It's not like we aren't playing mostly young players already. 

I can't believe people just want to give up when ESPN has us at 15% and FootballOutsiders at 13.8% chance of making it in. 

[TransientTexan]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Exactly this.  Lately, unless you're picking top 5, 10-20 is hitting at just as high a rate as 5-10. 

We aren't tanking our way to a top 5 pick. 

Jaire Alexander is the best player we have drafted since Aaron Rodgers.  I know people aren't buying into that yet, but I truly believe it.  You watch that kid play and you can see he belongs in this league already at 21 years old.  The kid is a star, and it shows, and we got him 18th overall. 

Winning and instilling that winning mentality in him and King and Jackson and MVS and ESB and all the players on our team currently under 25 years old is paramount. 

possible isn't the same as probable. just because it can be done doesn't mean it's likely to be done. And just because neither slot range is a 100% guarantee to hit or miss doesn't mean this aren't meaningful differences in rates. 

[skibrett15]

28 minutes ago, TheBitzMan said:

Perry is already on IR. King needs to play if healthy, he doesn't have enough experience to IR if healthy. I wouldn't IR Cobb or Daniels until mathematically eliminated. On top of that none of them played this week anyways. It's not like we aren't playing mostly young players already. 

I can't believe people just want to give up when ESPN has us at 15% and FootballOutsiders at 13.8% chance of making it in. 

I think most people are trying to have a post-bears or post-atlanta loss conversation now, kind of assuming that happens.

[Pugger]

2 hours ago, Gopher Trace said:

I don't think the players should ever feel like not playing their hardest is acceptable, even if we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

The team should play to win no matter what, and getting into the playoffs even just for a one-and-done appearance is valuable in that it gives them playoff experience, which is huge to have in the future. Yet in the scenario we find ourselves in, I'm not convinced picking higher every round in the draft is not more valuable.

I hope they continue to play to win, and that they are at least good enough to beat AZ, NYJ, and DET. If they can't, then are even further behind than we thought.

At the same token, picking higher is more than enough consolation in my eyes for the games we lose from here on out.

And if the players suspect a change will be made with a new HC this offseason I suspect they'll want to put some good stuff on tape for the new boss.  

I doubt any of us really want the team to tank but a lot of us won't be wringing our hands if we lose a few of these upcoming games.  So if we win, great.  If we don't let's get some good draft capital and reload for 2019.  If we aren't gonna make the playoffs then the next best thing is to plan for the future and turn this thing around.

[thrILL!]