This team needs a 2nd round WR/TE/RB or equivalent FA

[pacman5252]

1 hour ago, Arthur Penske said:

So you’re argument is that MVS, ESB, and Moore won’t be good because of historical drafts? Seems like a solid theory.

Based off historical evidence, there is a higher % chance they are out of the NFL in 5 years than good starters.  If one of them pans out to be even a #2 wr, that would be beating the odds. Moore already seems like a bust (no PT and getting beaten by a 3rd year UDFA).

[pacman5252]

10 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

To which I would ask, if you're going to talk completion percentage, how come you're not talking yards/target where this year's rookies have an advantage?

If they were Edge Rushers or Tackles, premium positions, I would be worried. Since they're more equivalent to IOL, I'm quite enthused with their production for the resources I'm dumping into them.

Our starting IOL this year was McCray, Linsley, Taylor. That's what 2 UDFAs and a 5th round pick?

MVS has an advantage. EQ still only has 21 catches and 328 yards. That is a very small sample size.

Also, I do think we need another pick in the OL too. I've argued that in other threads. That isn't what we are talking about that though right now (nice red herring)

[AlexGreen#20]

2 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

MVS has an advantage. EQ still only has 21 catches and 328 yards. That is a very small sample size.

Also, I do think we need another pick in the OL too. I've argued that in other threads. That isn't what we are talking about that though right now (nice red herring)

How is it a Red Herring if somebody else made the comparison between the WR group and the OL and I responded to it?

[pacman5252]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

We're not arguing who was the better prospect, because it clearly is Davante Adams.  And once you're in the league, draft status should go out the window.  6% is an issue, but it also comes without context.  Rodgers has been in arguably his worst as a professional, and he's missed a TON of throws.  Adams probably had some poor throws, but I don't recall  Rodgers missing as many throws as he has this year.

And no, the number of snaps aren't an issue.  It's a red flag if they were getting that many snaps, and not producing.  But they're producing.  And producing at a reasonable level too.  They've been given opportunity to produce because of injuries ahead of them.  That shouldn't be a knock on them.

Have you ever thought Rodgers missed throws this year have been partially on the WRs? Before this week, Rodgers passer rating dropped about 30 points when not targeting Adams, Cobb, or Allison. He didn't make every throw 7 years ago either and missed a few a game then too. It is just compounded because we haven't been scoring as much. In addition, misses have a lot to do with route running and communication too.

[pacman5252]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

How is it a Red Herring if somebody else made the comparison between the WR group and the OL and I responded to it?

 

This thread is about how we need another talented WR. Making the argument that we don't need a WR, because we also need an OL, is redirecting the subject and doesn't change the fact that we need more at WR.

 

[pacman5252]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Ah yes, the stats don't mean anything argument.  If stats don't mean anything, how do you make an opinion one way or the other on them?  ESB and MVS got targets today, and magically they were productive?  No.  Between the two of them, they had 10 receptions for 169 yards.  Davante Adams had 11 receptions and 71 yards.  Why does Adams' numbers count but not MVS & ESB?  If anything, I'd almost make the argument that Adams' numbers are less impressive since they weren't force feeding him the ball like they did with Adams.  And shocking, it happened when Randall Cobb wasn't playing.  I'm not sure how players being forced to play because of injury means their stats don't mean anything. That's how young players generally get to the field.

MVS: 35 receptions, 538 receiving yards, 2 TD receptions (64 targets)
Greg Jennings: 45 receptions, 632 receiving yards, 3 TD receptions (104 targets)
James Jones: 47 receptions, 676 receiving yards, 2 TD receptions (80 targets)
Jordy Nelson: 33 receptions, 366 receiving yards, 2 TD receptions (54 targets)
Davante Adams: 38 receptions, 446 receiving yards, 3 TD receptions (66 targets)

So what's the difference between the last four and MVS?  Oh yeah, draft status.  MVS was drafted in the 5th, and the other were Day 2 picks.  MVS has absolutely deserved the right to be one of our top 3 WRs next year based on what he's done this year.  Now the question is, will MVS make that second year jump?

A few things,

You left Cobb off for some reason ( catch/target rate as a rookie)

Outside Jennings, MVS has been behind all of the Packer wrs in completion rate (which is also inflated due to the NFL evolving more to shorter perimeter routes. Completion rate is up about 3-5% around the NFL since 2005.

MVS right now would be our wr 2. Even if he makes a jump, we are pretty deficient at WR and need to put resources in the position. With AR at QB, to get back to where we were 7 years ago, we need 4 WRs that can play.

MVS right now would be our #2 wr next year. The guys above were our #3-4s. Even if he makes a second year jump, which I hope he does,

[AlexGreen#20]

9 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

 

This thread is about how we need another talented WR. Making the argument that we don't need a WR, because we also need an OL, is redirecting the subject and doesn't change the fact that we need more at WR.

 

Where did I say we didn't need a WR because we also need OL help. 

The entire crux of the conversation was positional value. Thus the comparison that was made between Edge, OT, WR, and IOL.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, pacman5252 said:

A few things,

You left Cobb off for some reason ( catch/target rate as a rookie)

Outside Jennings, MVS has been behind all of the Packer wrs in completion rate (which is also inflated due to the NFL evolving more to shorter perimeter routes. Completion rate is up about 3-5% around the NFL since 2005.

MVS right now would be our wr 2. Even if he makes a jump, we are pretty deficient at WR and need to put resources in the position. With AR at QB, to get back to where we were 7 years ago, we need 4 WRs that can play.

MVS right now would be our #2 wr next year. The guys above were our #3-4s. Even if he makes a second year jump, which I hope he does,

Wouldn't Allison be the #2

[pacman5252]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

The bolded is my point.  Right now, what do you trust more our depth at OLB (Reggie Gilbert, Kendall Donnerson, and James Crawford) or our depth at WR (MVS, ESB, and J'Mon Moore)?  Or how about our WR corps (same guys) or our DL (Tyler Lancaster, Montravius Adams, and James Looney)?  Maybe I'm unnecessarily high on MVS and ESB, but I trust those two significantly more than any of the guys I mentioned.  And I'd argue that they're more likely to get the job done than any of the guys I listed in the other groups.  Hell, I'd probably gamble on J'Mon Moore over most everyone not named ESB and MVS.

And going through your list, what happens when the inevitable injury to Kevin King or another corner happens?  Breeland is likely gone to the highest bidder this offseason after seeing his long-term deal with the Panthers fall apart because of injury?  We're relying on Jaire Alexander and hoping that Josh Jackson turns it around.  At least if you draft a corner, you're hedging your bets because you can always try and make the transition to safety for Jackson.

In 2018 you need 3 starting wrs and another guy who is good enough to step in for the inevitable injury. If we didn't make any additions via the draft or FA, we'd be going in with Adams, MVS, ESB, Kumerow, and Moore. That is hoping 2 late round guys make a large enough jump to be starters, and at least 1 guy improves enough to get 400 snaps. That is a lot of projection for starters and really no depth.

In contrary, you want 2 starting edge players and a really good backup. We'll have Fackrell, pick 1, maybe perry, plus the Gilbert. That group isn't bad

 

[pacman5252]

17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Wouldn't Allison be the #2

He's a RFA, so he could be gone. In addition, an ideal world, would he be our #2? He would be the worst #2 wr we've had since like Bill Schredeor.

[pacman5252]

23 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Where did I say we didn't need a WR because we also need OL help.

You brought up the 5th/UD pedigree of our interior OL.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

He's a RFA, so he could be gone. In addition, an ideal world, would he be our #2? He would be the worst #2 wr we've had since like Bill Schredeor.

He'd be phased out as MVS and ESB improved throughout their second year. He'd be the #2 for like half a season. 

Also I'd be hard pressed to argue that he wasn't a better receiver than Cobb this year. 

[AlexGreen#20]

2 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

You brought up the 5th/UD pedigree of our interior OL.

And said, "I'd be thrilled with the production I'm getting with the minimal resources I have invested in it"

[pacman5252]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

How many of those late round WRs had rookie seasons comparable to MVS?  Go through and compare those numbers to what MVS is putting up.

Most of those WRs weren't forced to take 500 snaps because of necessity.

Similar situation (not quite a rookie, but low experience) Charles Johnson. He was a 7th round rookie in 2013 from us who got cut. He ended up having 31 receptions on 59 targets, 475 yards in 2014 for the Vikes his first year of PT because the team was garbage at WR and they needed bodies. If you give a WR 500 snaps, he'll get a few catches. The low efficiency of MVS (low end of completion/target), and the increased throw aways this year is a result of the lack of talent/experience we have.

[pacman5252]

11 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

He'd be phased out as MVS and ESB improved throughout their second year. He'd be the #2 for like half a season. 

Also I'd be hard pressed to argue that he wasn't a better receiver than Cobb this year. 

If ESB and MVS are our 2/3 wrs next year I'll be very concerned.

Why bring up Cobb? He's been hurt all season and missed like 7 games who is also at the end of the line. Yeah, he's been better than Cobb. He's having a better year than Jordy Nelson did in 2015 too.