This team needs a 2nd round WR/TE/RB or equivalent FA

[ThatJerkDave]

22 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

With so many needs on the team, some of them critical, I still think that the 2019 season is the one where we see what we have in rookies MVS and ESB, now they have a years experience in the league. My WR target for 2019 is not a draft pick, it is the Jets FA (after 2018) Jermaine Kearse, who more or less takes the place of Cobb.

That high end WR you are looking for seems more likely to be taken in the following draft (ie 2020), by which time the Packers should have a good handle on how good the two rooks are. That allows high picks at edge rusher, offensive tackle, safety, TE, guard, RB, six picks that would take you to the end of round four. Obviously you don't agree with this take, but it's what i think at this time.

I like that idea.  

I am going to bang the drum for Geronimo Allison all offseason.  I think he is a good player that will be inexpensive.  If even one of the three rookies or Kumerrow are a hit, it is a pretty good return on investment. So far, it looks like ESB ad MVS are trending in direction that we would hope.

[Hail Mary]

On the topic of future at TE, anyone think Tonyan has a future with the team?

 

Kids a beastly athlete. Does anyone see something in him that might make him turn out to be a bust?

Edited December 23, 2018 by Hail Mary

[coachbuns]

Our coaching staff has to put him in the fricking game to find out.  Our backup tight ends haven't done a thing to warrant being in the game .... give the kid a darn chance!!

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

I don't have a problem with going with a defensive player in the first round. 

But I do believe in relatively balanced drafts. Personally I would want to target a skill player in the first two days (on average) and I would want to be drafting OL on average in the first five rounds each year. 

This year if we drafted WR in the second round and used the other picks in the first two days on defence then we would have a draft that was heavily weighted towards defence (not going to do the sums but would probably work out about 90% defence given the value of 1st rounders). I don't see how a draft that is 90% weighted towards defence is sacrificing your defence for your offence. in fact its pretty crazy to suggest that. 

And again how do you define more important ?   When we were stocking up our offence with weapons for Aaron from the draft then we had a good team. When we stopped doing that and just drafted defensive players with pretty much every pick, we then had a bad team. Maybe you regard getting draft value from some draft position chart or something as being the most important thing in the draft. I regard having a good team as being more important. Obviously that's very simplistic. But the facts are that when we stopped drafting offence our offence got considerably worse and we stopped winning games. 

In an ideal world, we're grabbing an EDGE (Josh Allen) and OT (Greg Little) in the first round.  In the second round, we're grabbing either a CB or S depending on what we want to do with Josh Jackson.  Then in the third round maybe you start considering a WR for me, assuming the board doesn't present itself with a WR whose clearly of significant value.  And that doesn't even include the fact that I'd like double-dip at EDGE and grab another DL.  Unfortunately, things probably aren't going to be ideal in that scenario.  You grab your IOL early on Day 3.  So something like EDGE/OT (1st), CB/S (2nd), WR (3rd), CB/S/IOL (4th), and TE (5th) would be preferred.

How I do define important?  Which one keeps our defense or offense running?  Take Jaire Alexander off of our team, how bad is our pass defense?  Take away Kenny Clark, how bad is our DL?  Calvin Ridley has 26 more receptions and 236 more receiving yards.  DJ Moore has 19 more receptions and 225 more receiving yards.  The Falcons took Ridley 148 slots before MVS.  The Panthers took DJ Moore 150 spots before MVS.  Is the difference between the Moore/Ridley and MVS a FRP?  Absolutely not.  Those are the two more productive WRs from last year's draft, and they're marginally more productive than MVS.

[mikemike778]

6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

In an ideal world, we're grabbing an EDGE (Josh Allen) and OT (Greg Little) in the first round.  In the second round, we're grabbing either a CB or S depending on what we want to do with Josh Jackson.  Then in the third round maybe you start considering a WR for me, assuming the board doesn't present itself with a WR whose clearly of significant value.  And that doesn't even include the fact that I'd like double-dip at EDGE and grab another DL.  Unfortunately, things probably aren't going to be ideal in that scenario.  You grab your IOL early on Day 3.  So something like EDGE/OT (1st), CB/S (2nd), WR (3rd), CB/S/IOL (4th), and TE (5th) would be preferred.

How I do define important?  Which one keeps our defense or offense running?  Take Jaire Alexander off of our team, how bad is our pass defense?  Take away Kenny Clark, how bad is our DL?  Calvin Ridley has 26 more receptions and 236 more receiving yards.  DJ Moore has 19 more receptions and 225 more receiving yards.  The Falcons took Ridley 148 slots before MVS.  The Panthers took DJ Moore 150 spots before MVS.  Is the difference between the Moore/Ridley and MVS a FRP?  Absolutely not.  Those are the two more productive WRs from last year's draft, and they're marginally more productive than MVS.

Yeah Clark and Alexander are important but what about the others ...

• Take Josh Jackson out of the team - does our defence get worse
• Take Adams (DL) out of the teams - does anyone notice
• Take Burks out of the team - does anyone notice
• Take Josh Jones out of the team - does our secondary fall apart

Its all very well cherry picking a couple of first rounders that we hit on. But a lot of the second day picks we've spammed on the defence haven't amounted to much - if we had hit on offensive players, we could talk about how important they are to the team. I'm fine with your philosophy in the first round but you need to use good picks on other positions in the second day. 

In your example, drafting EDGE and OT in the first round and a receiver or tight end plus a safety second day sounds fine to me. I'm sure you would like to double dip on EDGE and DL but I would like a receiver and a tight end. Like you say, we can't have everything. In an ideal world (and yes BPA and so on but if everything slotted into place in a dream scenario) I would like

• 1a. EDGE 
• 1b. OT
• 2.  WR 
• 3. SAF
• 4a. TE
• 4b. OLB
• 5. OL
• 6. Whatever
• 7. Kicker (might as well give Crosby competition and maybe save us a few quid)

So we aren't too far away. Obviously its unlikely things fall the way they fall. I just want us to end the veto on using good picks on offence

[pacman5252]

20 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

ESB is currently 15th in receptions for a rookie receiver drafted in the 6th round since 1980.  With 5 more catches in the final two games, he would finish 9th in receptions for a rookie receiver drafted in the 6th round. 

He's 14th in yards, too.  With 60 yards over the final two games, he's 8th overall. 

MVS is currently 10th in receptions (5th round rookie season since 1980).  With 4 receptions over the final 2 games, he moves into 7th on that list.  He's 10th in yards. 

You don't understand the meaning of blind hope. 

Receptions is a volume stat that correlates to playing time. It doesn’t mean they are good. In normal situations, a development wr taken late doesn’t see the field. We’ve seen this in the last decade (Janis, Abby, Davis,etc). However when 2of your top 3 wrs go down and your roster is thin, you get what we have.

In addition EQ had 16 receptions.... come on man. Bragging about that is Confirmation bias. I do think MVS might have a shot, but still , we need more talent. AR’s passer rating drops 30 points when not targeting a nfl wr(Adams, Cobb, ally). Both grade low in the analytics.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

Yeah Clark and Alexander are important but what about the others ...

• Take Josh Jackson out of the team - does our defence get worse
• Take Adams (DL) out of the teams - does anyone notice
• Take Burks out of the team - does anyone notice
• Take Josh Jones out of the team - does our secondary fall apart

Its all very well cherry picking a couple of first rounders that we hit on. But a lot of the second day picks we've spammed on the defence haven't amounted to much - if we had hit on offensive players, we could talk about how important they are to the team. I'm fine with your philosophy in the first round but you need to use good picks on other positions in the second day. 

In your example, drafting EDGE and OT in the first round and a receiver or tight end plus a safety second day sounds fine to me. I'm sure you would like to double dip on EDGE and DL but I would like a receiver and a tight end. Like you say, we can't have everything. In an ideal world (and yes BPA and so on but if everything slotted into place in a dream scenario) I would like

• 1a. EDGE 
• 1b. OT
• 2.  WR 
• 3. SAF
• 4a. TE
• 4b. OLB
• 5. OL
• 6. Whatever
• 7. Kicker (might as well give Crosby competition and maybe save us a few quid)

So we aren't too far away. Obviously its unlikely things fall the way they fall. I just want us to end the veto on using good picks on offence

You hit on about 50% of first round picks.

You hit on about 25% of second round picks.

You hit on about 15% of 3rd round picks.

You hit on about 10% of 4th round picks.

You hit on about 5% of 5th-7th round picks.

Expecting every second round pick to hit just isn't realistic.

[pacman5252]

17 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Blind hope is getting absolutely nothing out of our young WRs and expecting them to be productive in 2019.  As Outpost just said, that isn't the case.

Dude, as of now they have just gotten volume numbers. 16 and 30 receptions with a high snap count on a team that throws 40 times a game isn’t good. Loving the argument  “they are x in receptions for a rookie drafted” is drinking kool aide on them.

[AlexGreen#20]

2 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

Dude, as of now they have just gotten volume numbers. 16 and 30 receptions with a high snap count on a team that throws 40 times a game isn’t good. Loving the argument  “they are x in receptions for a rookie drafted” is drinking kool aide on them.

For the sake of argument,

Davante as a rookie played 738 snaps and went 66 targets, 38 receptions, 446 yards, 3 TDs

MVS as a rookie has gone 569 snaps 55 targets, 30 receptions, 463 yards, 2 TDs

EQ as a rookie has gone 319 snaps, 31 targets, 16 receptions, 234 yards, 0 TDs

Obviously there's a roster component argument to be made coming into this thing with Adams having a stud Nelson and Cobb playing in front of him, but the new rooks have Davante as well and would have had Cobb and Allison if they could stay healthy. 

I'd also make the argument that Davante played with a better QB in 2014 than the rookies are this year. MVS in particular has a number of TDs left on the field because of sub-prime throws. 

[pacman5252]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

For the sake of argument,

Davante as a rookie played 738 snaps and went 66 targets, 38 receptions, 446 yards, 3 TDs

MVS as a rookie has gone 569 snaps 55 targets, 30 receptions, 463 yards, 2 TDs

EQ as a rookie has gone 319 snaps, 31 targets, 16 receptions, 234 yards, 0 TDs

Obviously there's a roster component argument to be made coming into this thing with Adams having a stud Nelson and Cobb playing in front of him, but the new rooks have Davante as well and would have had Cobb and Allison if they could stay healthy. 

I'd also make the argument that Davante played with a better QB in 2014 than the rookies are this year. MVS in particular has a number of TDs left on the field because of sub-prime throws. 

This data could also show that several years ago, Adams was a better prospect than MVS/EQ. 57% of Adams targets were complete vs 54 for MVS and 51% for EQ. Especially comparing EQ, a 6% success rate in completion rate is pretty huge.

In addition, how often are 5th/6th round rookies getting 319 and 569 snaps across the league? Isn't this a major red flag for anyone else? If these were Edges/OL snap counts for late round rookies, Cwood (and I) would be freaking out saying we need more at that position group.

[pacman5252]

Argument- well there are a lot of late round WRs that pan out;

facts, not really

2013 draft round 4-7, 16 wrs taken. Kenny Stills is probably the only hit.

4	101	Jacksonville Jaguars	Ace Sanders	WR	South Carolina	SEC	from Philadelphia [R4 - 3]
	4	102	New England Patriots	Josh Boyce	WR	TCU	Big 12	from Detroit via Minnesota [R4 - 4]
	4	123	Seattle Seahawks	Chris Harper	WR	Kansas State	Big 12
	4	128	San Francisco 49ers	Quinton Patton	WR	Louisiana Tech	WAC
	5	144	New Orleans Saints	Kenny Stills	WR	Oklahoma	Big 12
	5	161	Denver Broncos	Tavarres King	WR	Georgia	SEC
	6	171	Detroit Lions	Corey Fuller	WR	Virginia Tech	ACC
	6	174	Arizona Cardinals	Ryan Swope	WR	Texas A&M	SEC
	6	186	Pittsburgh Steelers	Justin Brown	WR	Oklahoma	Big 12
	6	195	Houston Texans	Alan Bonner	WR	Jacksonville State	OVC
	6	197	Cincinnati Bengals	Cobi Hamilton	WR	Arkansas	SEC	from New England [R6 - 9]
	7	209	Oakland Raiders	Brice Butler	WR	San Diego State	MW
	7	216	Green Bay Packers	Charles Johnson	WR	Grand Valley State	GLIAC	from Tennessee via San Francisco [R7 - 5]
	7	224	Green Bay Packers	Kevin Dorsey	WR	Maryland	ACC	from Dallas via Miami [R7 - 11]
	7	236	Chicago Bears	Marquess Wilson	WR	Washington State	Pac-12	from Atlanta [R7 - 16]
	7	238	Baltimore Ravens	Aaron Mellette	WR	Elon	SoCon

[pacman5252]

2014 nfl draft 17 wrs taken, maybe Quincy Enuwa as a third or Bryant (who has major red flags)

Tampa Bay [R4 - 2]
    4     106     San Francisco 49ers     Bruce Ellington      WR     South Carolina     SEC     from Cleveland [R4 - 4]
    4     115     New York Jets     Shaq Evans      WR     UCLA     Pac-12     
    4     118     Pittsburgh Steelers     Martavis Bryant      WR     Clemson     ACC     
    4     123     Seattle Seahawks     Kevin Norwood      WR     Alabama     SEC     from Cincinnati [R4 - 10]
    5     142     Washington Redskins     Ryan Grant      WR     Tulane     C-USA     
    5     146     Dallas Cowboys     Devin Street      WR     Pittsburgh     ACC     from Oakland via Seattle and Detroit [R5 - 3]
    5*     176     Green Bay Packers     Jared Abbrederis      WR     Wisconsin     Big Ten     
    6     185     Tampa Bay Buccaneers     Robert Herron      WR     Wyoming     MW     from Buffalo [R6 - 7]
    6     189     Detroit Lions     T. J. Jones      WR     Notre Dame     Ind. (FBS)     
    6     190     Miami Dolphins     Matt Hazel      WR     Coastal Carolina     Big South     
    6     196     Arizona Cardinals     Walt Powell      WR     Murray State     OVC     
    6*     209     New York Jets     Quincy Enunwa      WR     Nebraska     Big Ten     
    7     218     Baltimore Ravens     Michael Campanaro      WR     Wake Forest     ACC     from Cleveland [R7 - 1]
    7     236     Green Bay Packers     Jeff Janis      WR     Saginaw Valley State     GLIAC     
    7     239     Cincinnati Bengals     James Wright      WR     LSU     SEC     
    7     240     San Diego Chargers     Tevin Reese      WR     Baylor     Big 12     
    7     244     New England Patriots     Jeremy Gallon      WR     Michigan     Big Ten

 

2015 nfl draft, 21 wrs taken... Diggs yes, Crowder/ JJ Nelson for third wrs. Lots of junk

4     105     Washington Redskins     Jamison Crowder      WR     Duke     ACC     
    4     107     Atlanta Falcons     Justin Hardy      WR     East Carolina     The American     2014 Burlsworth Trophy winner
    4     123     Cleveland Browns     Vince Mayle      WR     Washington State     Pac-12     from Arizona [R4 - 15]
    4*     132     San Francisco 49ers     DeAndre Smelter      WR     Georgia Tech     ACC     
    5     139     Jacksonville Jaguars     Rashad Greene      WR     Florida State     ACC     
    5     146     Minnesota Vikings     Stefon Diggs      WR     Maryland     Big Ten     from Atlanta [R5 - 5]
    5     156     Miami Dolphins     Tony Lippett      WR     Michigan State     Big Ten     from Philadelphia [R5 - 11]
    5     159     Arizona Cardinals     J. J. Nelson      WR     UAB     C-USA     
    5     162     Tampa Bay Buccaneers     Kenny Bell      WR     Nebraska     Big Ten     from Baltimore [R5 - 14]
    5*     175     Houston Texans     Keith Mumphery      WR     Michigan State     Big Ten     
    6     184     Tampa Bay Buccaneers     Kaelin Clay      WR     Utah     Pac-12     from St. Louis [R6 - 3]
    6     186     New York Giants     Geremy Davis      WR     Connecticut     The American     
    6     187     Washington Redskins     Evan Spencer      WR     Ohio State     Big Ten     from New Orleans [R6 - 5]
    6     201     St. Louis Rams     Bud Sasser      WR     Missouri     SEC     from Carolina [R6 - 11]
    6     204     Baltimore Ravens     Darren Waller      WR     Georgia Tech     ACC     from Dallas [R6 - 13]
    7     220     Jacksonville Jaguars     Neal Sterling      WR     Monmouth     Big South     
    7     221     Oakland Raiders     Andre Debose      WR     Florida     SEC     
    7     233     Kansas City Chiefs     Da'Ron Brown      WR     NIU     MAC     
    7     234     Buffalo Bills     Dezmin Lewis      WR     Central Arkansas     Southland     
    7     238     Cincinnati Bengals     Mario Alford      WR     West Virginia     Big 12     
    7     245     Tennessee Titans     Tre McBride      WR     William & Mary     CAA     from Denver via New York Giants [R7 - 12]   

[Leader]

5 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

Its all very well cherry picking a couple of first rounders that we hit on. But a lot of the second day picks we've spammed on the defence haven't amounted to much - if we had hit on offensive players, we could talk about how important they are to the team. I'm fine with your philosophy in the first round but you need to use good picks on other positions in the second day. 

In your example, drafting EDGE and OT in the first round and a receiver or tight end plus a safety second day sounds fine to me. I'm sure you would like to double dip on EDGE and DL but I would like a receiver and a tight end. Like you say, we can't have everything. In an ideal world (and yes BPA and so on but if everything slotted into place in a dream scenario) I would like

• 1a. EDGE 
• 1b. OT
• 2.  WR 
• 3. SAF
• 4a. TE
• 4b. OLB
• 5. OL
• 6. Whatever
• 7. Kicker (might as well give Crosby competition and maybe save us a few quid)

So we aren't too far away. Obviously its unlikely things fall the way they fall. I just want us to end the veto on using good picks on offense.

Agree
I could live with that positional breakdown.
I especially like the "Whatever" grab bag, fill in the blank pick. Leaves some mystery and excitement for day 3   

[pacman5252]

So there is 3 draft classes. You see

1 stud- Diggs

1 good starter- Stills

2 guys that are decent- Enuwa, Bryant

and 50 wrs that nobody is talking about.

You have a #3 or better hit rate of about 7.4%. We have 3 projects going right now. We need more pedigree right now.

[cannondale]

Well we got James Jones in the 3rd round and Antonio Freeman in the 3rd round and Robert Brooks in the 3rd round so we should never, ever, ever, have to draft a WR higher than that. If you guys can use that excuse for OL than it can be used for WR as well. CJ Spiller syndrome running rampant this year. 

So glad that's solved. Lock er up

Edited December 23, 2018 by cannondale