Browns at Broncos' GDT

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

You have to consider who was there.  Maybe Ngakoue but it’s not like there was a run of highly successful guys after Gotsis

That's fair - Ngakoue is the guy who stands out.  The thing is, again though - Gotsis was totally out of left field.  He wasn't anywhere near the big board.   And Elway just couldn't risk waiting until the board value was there.    And Elway right off the bat said Gotsis was going to need time - that's what makes the Rd2 pick awful.   It's the same kind of thinking behind taking all-tools Carlos Henderson - who had no skills.  Fortunately Gotsis hasn't been nearly as bad - but in doing that, Elway guaranteed only so much return on investment.  A 2nd round pick that doesn't contribute until year 3, and only part-time, it's not a good return - especially when you knowingly pick him with the knowledge he requires a lot of work and time to get him onto the field.  Those are the guys you take later, when you are in the pure flyer (or when need can justify picks, since no one is a sure thing).

Keep in mind that if you follow BPA, Rd2 still offers plenty of real talent most years - in 2016, going Ngakoue gets a HUGE upgrade in a guy who was very skilled.   But just go big board, and you get guys like Keith Byard, Joe Thuney, Kendall Fuller, Nick Vigil (OK, Elway's never going LB that early, so scratch that lol).  

Contrast that to this year - Elway wasn't planning on going Sutton Rd2, he just felt that the value was too good to pass up.   He didn't lock into 1 guy, or need.   While I thought we could have taken a CB/TE who was equally as valuable and BPA-rank similar to Sutton, I can't fault that thinking.   Instead of the horrific "must have tools-no-skills-guy-who-will-take-forever" in Rd2.  That's just bad draft value philosophy.  There's a point where it's OK to do that - rarely is it in the top 60-75 (and I'd have argued in 2017-18, it was close  to 90's).  

BPA vs. need is a debate that's not new - I'd point out I don't think BPA matters as much the further you go down the draft.  But most years, in Rds 1-2, it's still a winning philosophy;  Sutton shows that this year (and I'd argue that letting guys fall to value matters just as much - why I loved the Jewell pick at 106).   Elway took a guy who wasn't anywhere near there, and with an incubation period of 2+ years before they hoped he was ready to  play regularly - and he still doesn't play full-time in year 3.  And that price was known when Elway decided he was going to spend a Rd2 pick.   For Rd2, even a late one...well, I would strongly suggest that DEN's misery in Rd2-3 is setting up far lower expectations than normal, rather than suggest it's too high to think a Rd2 player can't be a contributor in year 2.   Year 1 is a stretch, and why Sutton's a huge bonus to be doing that already, but when you knowingly take a guy who's unlikely to be much of a year 2 contributor....man, it's just a bad value return.  Again, though, the most important thing is that Elway seems to have ditched this philosophy, and mercifully so.

[AKRNA]

15 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

That's fair - Ngakoue is the guy who stands out.  The thing is, again though - Gotsis was totally out of left field.  He wasn't anywhere near the big board.   And Elway just couldn't risk waiting until the board value was there.    And Elway right off the bat said Gotsis was going to need time - that's what makes the Rd2 pick awful.   It's the same kind of thinking behind taking all-tools Carlos Henderson - who had no skills.  Fortunately Gotsis hasn't been nearly as bad - but in doing that, Elway guaranteed only so much return on investment.  A 2nd round pick that doesn't contribute until year 3, and only part-time, it's not a good return - especially when you knowingly pick him with the knowledge he requires a lot of work and time to get him onto the field.  Those are the guys you take later, when you are in the pure flyer (or when need can justify picks, since no one is a sure thing).

Keep in mind that if you follow BPA, Rd2 still offers plenty of real talent most years - in 2016, going Ngakoue gets a HUGE upgrade in a guy who was very skilled.   But just go big board, and you get guys like Keith Byard, Joe Thuney, Kendall Fuller, Nick Vigil (OK, Elway's never going LB that early, so scratch that lol).  

Contrast that to this year - Elway wasn't planning on going Sutton Rd2, he just felt that the value was too good to pass up.   He didn't lock into 1 guy, or need.   While I thought we could have taken a CB/TE who was equally as valuable and BPA-rank similar to Sutton, I can't fault that thinking.   Instead of the horrific "must have tools-no-skills-guy-who-will-take-forever" in Rd2.  That's just bad draft value philosophy.  There's a point where it's OK to do that - rarely is it in the top 60-75 (and I'd have argued in 2017-18, it was close  to 90's).  

BPA vs. need is a debate that's not new - I'd point out I don't think BPA matters as much the further you go down the draft.  But most years, in Rds 1-2, it's still a winning philosophy;  Sutton shows that this year (and I'd argue that letting guys fall to value matters just as much - why I loved the Jewell pick at 106).   Elway took a guy who wasn't anywhere near there, and with an incubation period of 2+ years before they hoped he was ready to  play regularly - and he still doesn't play full-time in year 3.  And that price was known when Elway decided he was going to spend a Rd2 pick.   For Rd2, even a late one...well, I would strongly suggest that DEN's misery in Rd2-3 is setting up far lower expectations than normal, rather than suggest it's too high to think a Rd2 player can't be a contributor in year 2.   Year 1 is a stretch, and why Sutton's a huge bonus to be doing that already, but when you knowingly take a guy who's unlikely to be much of a year 2 contributor....man, it's just a bad value return.  Again, though, the most important thing is that Elway seems to have ditched this philosophy, and mercifully so.

For what it's worth, Gotsis has been a solid contributor and part time starter since his 2nd year. He's improved every year. You've built your argument around a straw man that doesn't  exist.

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

For what it's worth, Gotsis has been a solid contributor and part time starter since his 2nd year. He's improved every year. You've built your argument around a straw man that doesn't  exist.

Gotsis played 19 percent of the snaps in year 2 (EDIT: correction, year 1).  And was awful.  Come on dude, I know you want to see the best in our org as a default, but that's a revisionist take. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/den/2016-snap-counts.htm 

EDIT:  Actually, wait, it's late....you're right, he did play 50 percent year 2, year 1 was 19 percent.  My bad there. So yes in the rotation,  albeit he was still awful at anything but as a run defender.  But point conceded that he did play more lol.

[lomaxgrUK]

I feel for Gotsis in a way because he doesn't get many pure pass rush opportunities, as we tend to play either Shelby Harris or an OLB (Barrett, Ray, Chubb) at DT on 3rd and long. That said, he's hardly excelled as a pass rusher in the chances he's had. I like him as a run Defender though, and to be honest he's the least of our worries right now. As for the game ...

I just think it's borderline pointless to analyse anything on this team besides Case Keenum, because we're going nowhere with him at QB. There probably isn't a team in the history of the NFL that could compensate for his play at this point (his first half displays, at least). The injuries to the interior OL have killed any chance we had of Keenum getting better.

Because of his lack of height, Keenum can't see over his interior Lineman when they get pushed back, which is pretty often at the moment (Wilkinson especially). He's now starting to see ghosts when the pocket is fine, so as soon as he starts to roll out right it (obviously) means the Defense only has to guard one half of the field.

We had some bad plays on Defense, but at the end of the day the Browns scored 17 points. At home, that has to be enough to win in good weather in the NFL. Did anyone catch what Lindsay said after the game? He got asked why the running game has stalled and the first thing he said was that it's 8 in the box every time.

You. Cannot. Run. Consistently. Vs. 8. In. The. Box. We had success earlier in the year running in our ACE Personnel but that was when teams would play their Nickel Defense with 6 in the box. Now, teams are putting that 7th man in the box (1 Safety coming down) so we're 5 vs 7 in the box, i.e the same as 8 in the box vs a traditional 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB personnel grouping.

Until this team gets a QB that can make NFL throws vs looks that are very, very favourable for a QB in the NFL then it is going nowhere. I agree with what the other poster said - I hate Chad Kelly so much for blowing his chance, and our chance at seeing something besides this dross.

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I feel for Gotsis in a way because he doesn't get many pure pass rush opportunities, as we tend to play either Shelby Harris or an OLB (Barrett, Ray, Chubb) at DT on 3rd and long. That said, he's hardly excelled as a pass rusher in the chances he's had. I like him as a run Defender though, and to be honest he's the least of our worries right now. As for the game ...

I just think it's borderline pointless to analyse anything on this team besides Case Keenum, because we're going nowhere with him at QB. There probably isn't a team in the history of the NFL that could compensate for his play at this point (his first half displays, at least). The injuries to the interior OL have killed any chance we had of Keenum getting better.

Because of his lack of height, Keenum can't see over his interior Lineman when they get pushed back, which is pretty often at the moment (Wilkinson especially). He's now starting to see ghosts when the pocket is fine, so as soon as he starts to roll out right it (obviously) means the Defense only has to guard one half of the field.

We had some bad plays on Defense, but at the end of the day the Browns scored 17 points. At home, that has to be enough to win in good weather in the NFL. Did anyone catch what Lindsay said after the game? He got asked why the running game has stalled and the first thing he said was that it's 8 in the box every time.

You. Cannot. Run. Consistently. Vs. 8. In. The. Box. We had success earlier in the year running in our ACE Personnel but that was when teams would play their Nickel Defense with 6 in the box. Now, teams are putting that 7th man in the box (1 Safety coming down) so we're 5 vs 7 in the box, i.e the same as 8 in the box vs a traditional 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB personnel grouping.

Until this team gets a QB that can make NFL throws vs looks that are very, very favourable for a QB in the NFL then it is going nowhere. I agree with what the other poster said - I hate Chad Kelly so much for blowing his chance, and our chance at seeing something besides this dross.

It’s a telling statement that we all know we can’t trust Kelly to be smart enough to stay on the straight and narrow and no one second guessed Elway cutting him.  And yet we still miss even the prospect of having him replace Keenum.   

The FA class is beyond bad only 1 guy with going after and he will cost the moon.  With 10M tied to Keenum don’t see a big push.  Anyone we’d trade for is abysmal.   The draft class looks like it might be taking a huge hit as Haskins posted this weekend asking a teammate to stay at OSU an extra year.  An already iffy top end class would take a huge depth hit if he stayed.  Ugh all around.  

[champ11]

5 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I feel for Gotsis in a way because he doesn't get many pure pass rush opportunities, as we tend to play either Shelby Harris or an OLB (Barrett, Ray, Chubb) at DT on 3rd and long. That said, he's hardly excelled as a pass rusher in the chances he's had. I like him as a run Defender though, and to be honest he's the least of our worries right now. As for the game ...

I just think it's borderline pointless to analyse anything on this team besides Case Keenum, because we're going nowhere with him at QB. There probably isn't a team in the history of the NFL that could compensate for his play at this point (his first half displays, at least). The injuries to the interior OL have killed any chance we had of Keenum getting better.

Because of his lack of height, Keenum can't see over his interior Lineman when they get pushed back, which is pretty often at the moment (Wilkinson especially). He's now starting to see ghosts when the pocket is fine, so as soon as he starts to roll out right it (obviously) means the Defense only has to guard one half of the field.

We had some bad plays on Defense, but at the end of the day the Browns scored 17 points. At home, that has to be enough to win in good weather in the NFL. Did anyone catch what Lindsay said after the game? He got asked why the running game has stalled and the first thing he said was that it's 8 in the box every time.

You. Cannot. Run. Consistently. Vs. 8. In. The. Box. We had success earlier in the year running in our ACE Personnel but that was when teams would play their Nickel Defense with 6 in the box. Now, teams are putting that 7th man in the box (1 Safety coming down) so we're 5 vs 7 in the box, i.e the same as 8 in the box vs a traditional 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB personnel grouping.

Until this team gets a QB that can make NFL throws vs looks that are very, very favourable for a QB in the NFL then it is going nowhere. I agree with what the other poster said - I hate Chad Kelly so much for blowing his chance, and our chance at seeing something besides this dross.

Thought about you when I saw that quote from Lindsay lol

[Broncofan]

A fitting epitaph to this game and likely VJ’s signature moment of his soon to be over DEN tenure.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Broncofan]

With @AKRNA stepping up and 1 and done....only 2 new guys needed to step up for next GDT (although it is OAK, so maybe only 1 more, but for 2 weeks lol)!

[thebestever6]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With @AKRNA stepping up and 1 and done....only 2 new guys needed to step up for next GDT (although it is OAK, so maybe only 1 more, but for 2 weeks lol)!

Don't sleep on Oakland lol those Christmas eve games are always strange. I find it out that we're 2.5 point favorites that seems like a Raider spread. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Don't sleep on Oakland lol those Christmas eve games are always strange. I find it out that we're 2.5 point favorites that seems like a Raider spread. 

Yeah nothing is a lock.   Just that OAK is about one of the few teams we’d be road favorites over at this stage.  But we shouldn’t assume anything is a given at this stage.  

[jsthomp2007]

19 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With @AKRNA stepping up and 1 and done....only 2 new guys needed to step up for next GDT (although it is OAK, so maybe only 1 more, but for 2 weeks lol)!

I have nearly 10,000 posts and I have never done the GDT.

[AkronsWitness]

On 12/14/2018 at 7:56 PM, BroncoSojia said:

@AkronsWitness Who are you rooting for? 

I actually flew out to Denver for the game. Got back yesterday.  The people behind me were extremely confused because the Champ Bailey Broncos jersey was showing out of the bottom of my jacket but I was cheering when the Browns did something good. Put on a Baker shirt at halftime I bought. I had to end up explaining the dual fanhood to the people behind me by saying "the Browns didnt exist when I was a kid so I started rooting for the Broncos then the Browns came back" and they understood.

Super fun experience. That stadium is amazing and the pre-game parachuting guys into the stadium was really cool. I even had a moment with Demarious Randall when he ran to the endzone celebrating at the end of the game and him/I were pointing at eachother screaming loudly so that was fun. Anyways it was weird with no 100% rooting interest but it was fun just to watch and root for big plays and a close game

[AKRNA]

56 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I have nearly 10,000 posts and I have never done the GDT.

Get 'er done!

[germ-x]

1 hour ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I have nearly 10,000 posts and I have never done the GDT.

Yep it’s you.  The future of this franchise is in your hands dude, it’s life is in your hands.

If you of all people don’t know that quote all respect (which is very little (sarcasm)) I have of you is gone.

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, germ-x said:

Yep it’s you.  The future of this franchise is in your hands dude, it’s life is in your hands.

If you of all people don’t know that quote all respect (which is very little (sarcasm)) I have of you is gone.

Easy, dude.