Browns at Broncos' GDT

[Scoundrel]

10 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Don't think I ever heard Bolles name called, Myles Garrett either.

There was a play where even Lindsay stone walled Garrett 

[candyman93]

Looking at the 2019 schedule, we will most likely play you guys again in Denver next year.

[jsthomp2007]

47 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Looking at the 2019 schedule, we will most likely play you guys again in Denver next year.

I'm hoping someday these two teams are good again...I miss the old school rivalry when the games counted.

[AKRNA]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK, might as well get this over with....

The Good:

  I'll give Gotsis big credit, he had a very good game.  Still not worth the 2nd, but that's a sunk cost.   If he can play well next year, it would really help us, as we do lack inside pass rush. 

Okay, I'll bite. What exactly are your expectations from the 63rd pick in the draft?  Just a note, but PFR rates his career to date as equal to or better than 29 players drafted before him. He's also appeared in more games than all but one player drafted before him.

[BroncoBruin]

Gotsis at the end of the 2nd is solid and the exciting part is he keeps getting better and better. Good candidate for an extension soon. 

The truly bad pick was Walker. He will be out of the league by 2020. 

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

Gotsis at the end of the 2nd is solid and the exciting part is he keeps getting better and better. Good candidate for an extension soon. 

The truly bad pick was Walker. He will be out of the league by 2020. 

Two of the most intriguing prospects Elway drafted were Gotsis and Bolles. Both were physically very gifted for their size, extremely raw and very tough. My first impression of both of them was "if they ever learn to play the game they could be great".

I think they're learning to play the game.

[thebestever6]

4 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Two of the most intriguing prospects Elway drafted were Gotsis and Bolles. Both were physically very gifted for their size, extremely raw and very tough. My first impression of both of them was "if they ever learn to play the game they could be great".

I think they're learning to play the game.

So you're  on board  with keeping position coaches but getting rid of vj?

[AKRNA]

5 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

So you're  on board  with keeping position coaches but getting rid of vj?

Pretty much.

I've cut him more slack than most, but kicking the FG on 4th and 1 kind of burned his last bridge IMO. Right there he lost me and real possibly the team.

[thebestever6]

6 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Pretty much.

I've cut him more slack than most, but kicking the FG on 4th and 1 kind of burned his last bridge IMO. Right there he lost me and real possibly the team.

I think I'm in the same boat with you. There's been a lot of growth from players this year so it's not all bad. But VJ as head chief just isn't working. 

Also its starting to filter into the media. Even von was rebellious sorta after last week. About him jumping snap counts.

[BroncoBruin]

39 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Two of the most intriguing prospects Elway drafted were Gotsis and Bolles. Both were physically very gifted for their size, extremely raw and very tough. My first impression of both of them was "if they ever learn to play the game they could be great".

I think they're learning to play the game.

I think fans find it tough to react in real time to improvement. People shape their analysis around their first impressions and will tend to not waver too much from those impressions. That seems to be the case with Gotsis, who was viewed as a bust, then a good but one-dimensional run stopper, now showing a complete skillset. He just keeps getting better and better, no need to put a ceiling on him yet.

[thebestever6]

Man I wish Chad Kelly wasn't an idiot.  How bad keenum was and how close the team has kept it this season tells me the team was held back by Case. I really think had Chad not been and idiot he'd have a couple of games under  his belt and the broncos would still be in a playoff race.  Just very disheartening ah well  back to the drawling board.

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Okay, I'll bite. What exactly are your expectations from the 63rd pick in the draft?  Just a note, but PFR rates his career to date as equal to or better than 29 players drafted before him. He's also appeared in more games than all but one player drafted before him.

Simply put - by spending a Rd2 pick on an all-tool no-skill project, Elway committed 2 years of pretty much zero to little return.  Even at a 60's pick, taking that approach minimizes the return to the team - unless you find a 3-down impact player starting year 3, and/or a star-level player by Year 4.  Let's agree he had a good game, but I think we'd also agree he's far from a star in the making.    This isn't Malik Jackson 2019 coming up.

PFR's rating is on a per-play basis, correct?   Here's the thing- Gotsis is a still just a rotational guy - he's not even played 50 percent of the snaps this year, and barely over 50 percent last year.    Go with a guy who's more advanced in the actual football skill area in Day 2, you actually get high-ceiling guys with decent skills too - and those guys help much sooner than Year 3.  That in a nutshell has been Elway's huge Day 2 weakness.   Gotsis is now entering his final year on his rookie deal next year - so if he's an impact 3-down player who consistently brings pass rush chops inside, great.  But if he's just still the run-stuffer who has the odd great pass-rush game for next year, it's a waste of a Rd2 pick - because short of an impact 3-way player for 2 years, taking 2 years to redshirt a guy is a bad use of resources when guys who have similar ceilings and much higher floors can help much sooner.   Not being able to help early is why we end up signing vets to stopgap, and it perpetuates our cap troubles.  It's the approach of going all-tools-but-needs-time that Elway's thankfully stopped that was the problem in Day 2 all these years (and his need to get his guy so early to avoid any risk of someone else taking that guy).  And keep in mind while Gotsis showed well the last couple of games - it's only been the last game or two where the pass rush pressure has come.  As we've seen with our other guys on OL, it needs to be sustained before we think this is a sign of things to come.   

Guys like Ngakoue, Nassib, and Collins all have played 65-75 percent of snaps, and were doing so in year 2 - and were contributing on all 3 downs - and yes, they went later.   Remember, when Gotsis was picked  - he went miles ahead of any board ranking.   A classic case of Elway "have to have him no matter what" that plagued his Day 2 drafts with over-reaches.    If this was a Rd 4-5 pick, it's a solid return - any 2-year starter is a win, even in a rotation.  But a Rd2 pick, with the others that were there and were clearly ahead?  Well, you get the idea.

The problem with going so early with guys like Gotsis is that he came with a 2-year developmental cycle.  That's fine if he was a Day 3 project.  But he was a horrible reach.   He hasn't busted out completely like some of Elway's other disasters - but the approach limits the yield.  Unless Gotsis breaks through to be this 3-down guy that we want to keep in his 2nd contract and justifies it, it's not a complete disaster like many of Elway's Day 2 whiffs...but it's still a miss - because a part-time guy who might help in pass rush by Year 4 regularly, it's hard to call that a win in any books.   

Honestly, we're just so used to going 0-fer in Day 2 Gotsis seems like a win.  He's just the least disastrous in a line of bad approach Day 2 picks by Elway (Simmons I'd definitely put in the win category).  If he's a real impact 3-down, 2-way guy year 4, then yes, it's not a bust - but anything less, given the part-time contributions he's given us, well,  the statement stlll holds - these kind of flyer picks aren't worth that price, if all you get is a part-time return and 2 years of redshirting.   That's fine for Day 3, Day 2 not so much.   The good news is that approach seems to finally have died, so we hopefully don't have to have this convo about our Day 2 picks going forward lol.

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Simply put - by spending a Rd2 pick on an all-tool no-skill project, Elway committed 2 years of pretty much zero to little return.  Even at a 60's pick, taking that approach minimizes the return to the team - unless you find a 3-down impact player starting year 3, and/or a star-level player by Year 4.  Let's agree he had a good game, but I think we'd also agree he's far from a star in the making.    This isn't Malik Jackson 2019 coming up.

PFR's rating is on a per-play basis, correct?   Here's the thing- Gotsis is a still just a rotational guy - he's not even played 50 percent of the snaps this year, and barely over 50 percent last year.    Go with a guy who's more advanced in the actual football skill area in Day 2, you actually get high-ceiling guys with decent skills too - and those guys help much sooner than Year 3.  That in a nutshell has been Elway's huge Day 2 weakness.   Gotsis is now entering his final year on his rookie deal next year - so if he's an impact 3-down player who consistently brings pass rush chops inside, great.  But if he's just still the run-stuffer who has the odd great pass-rush game for next year, it's a waste of a Rd2 pick - because short of an impact 3-way player for 2 years, taking 2 years to redshirt a guy is a bad use of resources when guys who have similar ceilings and much higher floors can help much sooner.   Not being able to help early is why we end up signing vets to stopgap, and it perpetuates our cap troubles.  It's the approach of going all-tools-but-needs-time that Elway's thankfully stopped that was the problem in Day 2 all these years (and his need to get his guy so early to avoid any risk of someone else taking that guy).  And keep in mind while Gotsis showed well the last couple of games - it's only been the last game or two where the pass rush pressure has come.  As we've seen with our other guys on OL, it needs to be sustained before we think this is a sign of things to come.   

Guys like Ngakoue, Nassib, and Collins all have played 65-75 percent of snaps, and were doing so in year 2 - and were contributing on all 3 downs - and yes, they went later.   Remember, when Gotsis was picked  - he went miles ahead of any board ranking.   A classic case of Elway "have to have him no matter what" that plagued his Day 2 drafts with over-reaches.    If this was a Rd 4-5 pick, it's a solid return - any 2-year starter is a win, even in a rotation.  But a Rd2 pick, with the others that were there and were clearly ahead?  Well, you get the idea.

The problem with going so early with guys like Gotsis is that he came with a 2-year developmental cycle.  That's fine if he was a Day 3 project.  But he was a horrible reach.   He hasn't busted out completely like some of Elway's other disasters - but the approach limits the yield.  Unless Gotsis breaks through to be this 3-down guy that we want to keep in his 2nd contract and justifies it, it's not a complete disaster like many of Elway's Day 2 whiffs...but it's still a miss - because a part-time guy who might help in pass rush by Year 4 regularly, it's hard to call that a win in any books.   

Honestly, we're just so used to going 0-fer in Day 2 Gotsis seems like a win.  He's just the least disastrous in a line of bad approach Day 2 picks by Elway (Simmons I'd definitely put in the win category).  If he's a real impact 3-down, 2-way guy year 4, then yes, it's not a bust - but anything less, given the part-time contributions he's given us, well,  the statement stlll holds - these kind of flyer picks aren't worth that price, if all you get is a part-time return and 2 years of redshirting.   That's fine for Day 3, Day 2 not so much.   The good news is that approach seems to finally have died, so we hopefully don't have to have this convo about our Day 2 picks going forward lol.

IMO you vastly overate draft expectations. After the 1st 10-15 you're starting to roll the dice. By 63 it's a crapshoot. I'll take a Gotsis at 63 any day.

[Broncofan]

11 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

IMO you vastly overate draft expectations. 

The issue isn't the outcome or expectations - it's the process behind the "insane tool but low/no-actual skills" picks.  That type of pick has no business going Rd2 when there are high-tool, but actual-skill players still available.   Because going tools-only guys guarantees that you don't get any real tangible return for 2+ years.    It removes any potential profit on return, unless the guy you get is an impact 3-down player. 

At best, we get a guy who helps year 3-4 when you commit to these guys who need to be coached up from the ground up.   That's totally justifiable when it's Day 3.   Or if it's Rd1-2 ,then the the output has to provide a ceiling that justifies passing up on actual players.   If this was a Rd4-5 pick, or later, no problem.  It's just when you pick a guy like Gotsis Day 2, and you have to sit him as long as we had to before he could play regularly, you guarantee a capped ceiling on return.  As much as we haven't seen eye to eye on Bolles - at least he was ready to play the position right away.   That at least offered a high ceiling of return on investment right away.  Guys like Gotsis don't when you have to redshirt them as long as we knew we'd have to.   Again that's totally fine if it's a later pick - because the pool of alternatives isn't any better.  Rd2, though - even late Rd2, given the pool of players still has skilled guys there, well, I'm glad Elway's come around and stopped going that way.

[broncofan48]

51 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The issue isn't the outcome or expectations - it's the process behind the "insane tool but low/no-actual skills" picks.  That type of pick has no business going Rd2 when there are high-tool, but actual-skill players still available.   Because going tools-only guys guarantees that you don't get any real tangible return for 2+ years.    It removes any potential profit on return, unless the guy you get is an impact 3-down player. 

At best, we get a guy who helps year 3-4 when you commit to these guys who need to be coached up from the ground up.   That's totally justifiable when it's Day 3.   Or if it's Rd1-2 ,then the the output has to provide a ceiling that justifies passing up on actual players.   If this was a Rd4-5 pick, or later, no problem.  It's just when you pick a guy like Gotsis Day 2, and you have to sit him as long as we had to before he could play regularly, you guarantee a capped ceiling on return.  As much as we haven't seen eye to eye on Bolles - at least he was ready to play the position right away.   That at least offered a high ceiling of return on investment right away.  Guys like Gotsis don't when you have to redshirt them as long as we knew we'd have to.   Again that's totally fine if it's a later pick - because the pool of alternatives isn't any better.  Rd2, though - even late Rd2, given the pool of players still has skilled guys there, well, I'm glad Elway's come around and stopped going that way.

You have to consider who was there.  Maybe Ngakoue but it’s not like there was a run of highly successful guys after Gotsis