Phire Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Jroc04 said: You're using determined hypothteicals to make your point. I'd take a good kicker first round instead of Smith if I knew what Marcus Smith was. But that means I would have the luxury of knowing the future. Point is, the guy could be the next Gronk. Or he could be an absolute bust. You dont know, I don't know, NFL execs don't know.... So what do they do? They provide risk/reward scenarios to select the most appropriate players. If two players with the same projected success in the league come out, the older one is going to fall simply because he doesn't have a professional window as long as the younger one. I don't think that's true at all. I think NFL Execs and scouts have a good foothold on whether a player will succeed or not. Even if they don't, they at least think they do. Their job is to make the best roster possible. If that means drafting a 25 year old that they think has a reasonably high chance of succeeding, I think it's asinine to suggest they'll stay away or even factor age that much into the equation. And 25 isn't even that old. Most players don't even stick around more than 3-4 years with the same team so I don't even understand why we're so hung up on this fantasy of having a guy we draft play in town for 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustrianEagle Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 i would draft Hurst, but not at 32. if he falls to our 4th i would be more than happy with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jroc04 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Phire said: I don't think that's true at all. I think NFL Execs and scouts have a good foothold on whether a player will succeed or not. Even if they don't, they at least think they do. Their job is to make the best roster possible. If that means drafting a 25 year old that they think has a reasonably high chance of succeeding, I think it's asinine to suggest they'll stay away or even factor age that much into the equation. And 25 isn't even that old. Most players don't even stick around more than 3-4 years with the same team so I don't even understand why we're so hung up on this fantasy of having a guy we draft play in town for 15 years. I mean if it were easy then every great player would be the first guys off the board. Why was Lane Johnson the 3rd tackle taken in that draft? Sure, FO guys think they have a good hold on who will project but they know about as well as anyone else that studies tape. It's mostly a crapshoot with so many determining factors against it. It's almost a miracle when a guy hits. My point is, if everything is fair, why take a guy that is three years older than another? If say Howie really likes this guy and maybe another guy slides who is 22, age has to be considered. I don't think anyone is romanticizing about a 15 year Eagle. I think they just want to maximize the value. Typically, you want to be able to control and resign your 1st and 2nd rounders for a decade. Hitting on this guy already limits his long term effectiveness while hitting on a younger guy gives you more years of production. It's just simple risk and reward. Youre already assuming this guy is good. What happens if he busts and the 2 year project kid with a super high ceiling ends up a future HoFer drafted right behind you? I don't mind a flyer on an older guy. But taking a guy in the first 2-3 rounds is not assuming your risk/reward properly. Like taking a lights out LB with a drug history. Or the athletic 6'6 WR with domestic abuse problems. Everything is risk/reward oriented. All these guys slip for some reason or another. You can find the 6 year senior TE with good hands in that category as well. 1-2 round hes risky. 3-5 reasonable. 6-7 he's a steal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninjapirate Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 hours ago, Phire said: People idealize the "20 years of amazing play with the same organization" too much. This happens with draft picks, trades, free agency, whatever. Football is a short-term game. Rosters turn over like mad every season. Every year's team is substantially different. So if you draft a 25-year old dude and he contributes for only 4 years (exaggerating for example) then what's the big deal? If you have the chance to trade for "Bad Knees" Jay Ajayi as a stopgap for 1-2 years, then what's the big deal if he's not here for 10+ years with healthy knees? It's good to look long-term but this is a short-term game and we all should have learned that lesson from Howie last year. The problem with age in a prospect is they are pretty much what they are going to be forever. Like you can't expact any reasonable physical growth from a 25 year old man. He is what he is and I don't know if that's worth wasting a first round pick on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninjapirate Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 hours ago, Jroc04 said: It's def a matter of risk and reward. The reward of drafting a guy that can play at a high level for 8+ years is better than that of a 5+ guy, obviously. Your risk in the NFL is usually money or draft slot. So, would you risk your 1st on him? 2nd? I'd prefer not to. The draft is a crapshoot. We all talked ourselves into the fireman because he "was ready to step in day 1" and "could compete at a pro bowl level his first year". Just because the guy is older doesn't mean he's ready to see NFL action. He could take a couple years to develop into possibly a good player and by then he's 28? If it's all the same risk, because no one knows if any player will pan out, then the younger guy clearly is the better option. Theres too much risk to spend a high draft pick on an older guy. Actually you make a good point I didn't really think of, Tight end might be the hardest position to transition from NCAA to NFL. So guy might not even be worth anything until he's 28. What's the point of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltman Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Report: eagles looking to add an impact WR in the draft https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2018/3/21/17147616/nfl-draft-rumors-insiders-eagles-effort-add-impact-wide-receiver-philadelphia-dj-moore-courtland-wr “Insiders believe the Eagles will make an effort to add an impact WR in the draft this year. The Eagles re-signed Nigel Bradham, but Jordan Hicks has struggled with injuries, so the Eagles should be looking to at least add depth at LB. The departure of Trey Burton opens up a spot for a combination tight end via the draft. While trading for Jay Ajayistrengthened the RB spot, there is room for more depth at the position.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltman Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Eagles will host Chukwuma; Stoutland worked him out at his Pro Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 8 hours ago, Kiltman said: Eagles will host Chukwuma; Stoutland worked him out at his Pro Day I heard that the Eagles were so impressed that they got knocked down, but they got up again.......but your never gonna keep them down...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealMcCoy Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 13 hours ago, AustrianEagle said: i would draft Hurst, but not at 32. if he falls to our 4th i would be more than happy with him. I would draft him at 32 or wouldn't draft him at all. Cause he either has a heart problem and can't play or its not serious and he's a first round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltman Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, EaglesPeteC said: I heard that the Eagles were so impressed that they got knocked down, but they got up again.......but your never gonna keep them down...... Too many question marks no word on whether he drinks a whiskey drink or a vodka drink...let alone if he partakes in lager drinks or even cider drinks. Fun Fact: Danny Watkins is the Danny referenced in that 1998 song, turned 21 that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, TheRealMcCoy said: I would draft him at 32 or wouldn't draft him at all. Cause he either has a heart problem and can't play or its not serious and he's a first round pick. I think they are talking about TE Hayden Hurst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Kiltman said: Too many question marks no word on whether he drinks a whiskey drink or a vodka drink...let alone if he partakes in lager drinks or even cider drinks. Fun Fact: Danny Watkins is the Danny referenced in that 1998 song, turned 21 that year OH, DANNY BOOOOOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealMcCoy Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, EaglesPeteC said: I think they are talking about TE Hayden Hurst Oops. I agree with him though that I wouldn't take a 25 year old TE2 at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hockey5djh Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Not to blow the age argument up but Carson Wentz was considered old coming out. He was 23 when drafted and turned 24 during his rookie year..... EDIT: I know its not 25 but its a success story for a player that got the "old" tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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