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ny92mike

TCMD - Keeper League Discussion

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After years of talking about it, we’re finally officially putting the TCMD name out there.  @Counselor and I are in the early development stages of running a GM Keeper League.  The forum currently has to my knowledge two successful leagues, the Nacho Simulation Football League (NSFL) and the Bizzaro Dynasty League (BDL), both of which have their own creative methods of operating.  Just like TCMD set itself apart from other GM mock drafts within the forum, we aim to do the same here.

Our goal is to provide a sim with a more in-depth offseason with less emphasis on the scheduled season at least to start.  I feel that this is something that will grow and develop over time, but just developing a solid foundation is what is important right now.

We very much want your feedback and any suggestions you might have, especially in this early developmental stage. 

The general idea for this keeper league is we’ll start the season off with empty rosters and using a salary cap and irl player contracts, a fantasy draft of veterans we’ll build our imaginary teams to start.  We’ll include much of the offseason features that we already use in TCMD such as the draft, free agency, trades, waiver wire etc but using a slightly simplified salary cap.  By getting rid of the top 51 rule and using only the base salary and signing bonuses to sign future player contracts we make it much easier to manage the salary cap from a year to year basis.

Those familiar with TCMD won’t see much difference during the offseason, we will need to create and alter some of the previous guidelines but the look and navigation will for the most part go unchanged. 

The biggest obstacle for this keeper league will be which model we use to determine the standings each year.  My idea is to use a formula based system using statistical data from players.  I’ve been tinkering around with such a system using team stats, after the end of the season to look at stats to determine the outcome of each game.  I range in about the 70% success rate each year using this system but only after the season have ended and I have access to all regular season stats.  I would like to take this season, to see what changes I would need to make to convert this system to work, that we all would feel comfortable using.  The idea would be to use this formula based system to produce a winner for each game, we could either take it at face value or conduct a vote based on the results of the formula.  So for example, using this system last year’s week one game; Week: 01 - Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles, the Eagles beat the Falcons 18 – 12.  Using my formula, the Eagles won 25 – 16.  So we would vote on the likelihood of that being the outcome.  However, like I said it isn’t 100% right all the time.  In week 14, NE @ Miami the formula had NE winning that game 24 – 20.  The actual score was Miami 34 – 33.

Using a voting system like this, removes what some might consider the fun in creating lavish game plans each week.  If I can and that is a BIG IF, I can get this system to work with a high level of probability, since we’ll never actually know because players will be on rosters that aren’t that way in real life.  I’d like to at least see how a voting system like this would work.  If this fails to produce the desired results we’d need to come up with a different plan to determine standings and post season winners.

The link below is a sample of the system.

In short of how it works is that it takes each stat line compares it the rest of the league.  It then groups each team based on how well they stack up to other teams.  Each group consist of 4 teams, group A being the best.  It then averages the scores for the season based on group vs group.  So a group A playing a group E the average score is 33 – 23.  Using that example, in week 14, NO group A played against TB group E where the irl final score was 28 – 14.     

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CbaDNS6LhrILnCIjyw3KM6_ocPi-0x4uqrlJZH8DHxk/edit?usp=sharing

 

For now, I think this is a good start and will hopefully generate some discussion to nail down the finer points.

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Seems like it's right more often than wrong.

Count me in if you get this up and running.

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@Counselor

So @bcb1213 had an idea, if we can't figure out the formula for projecting the winner of the game.  He suggested an alternative or plan b if we just voted on the rosters for the matchup.  Building on that, we could still create game plans for the postseason and I just thought about introducing a "Callout"  So for example, if I'm going up against a team that looks to have a better looking roster, I can attempt to steal a win by calling out my opponent.  Where we both are forced to create gameplans for that matchup.  We'd be allotted only a few of these during the regular season.

I think if we used bcb's plan of voting on rosters that this process would still allow some gameplanning but it wouldn't become a bore because we aren't having to do these plans each week just two or three per regular season and the postseason.  We'd likely have to create a rule that a team can only be called out 3 or 4 times during the regular season.   

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34 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

@Counselor

So @bcb1213 had an idea, if we can't figure out the formula for projecting the winner of the game.  He suggested an alternative or plan b if we just voted on the rosters for the matchup.  Building on that, we could still create game plans for the postseason and I just thought about introducing a "Callout"  So for example, if I'm going up against a team that looks to have a better looking roster, I can attempt to steal a win by calling out my opponent.  Where we both are forced to create gameplans for that matchup.  We'd be allotted only a few of these during the regular season.

I think if we used bcb's plan of voting on rosters that this process would still allow some gameplanning but it wouldn't become a bore because we aren't having to do these plans each week just two or three per regular season and the postseason.  We'd likely have to create a rule that a team can only be called out 3 or 4 times during the regular season.   

That sounds fun. There would have to be a fair enough warning to write the plan. 

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1 minute ago, Counselor said:

That sounds fun. There would have to be a fair enough warning to write the plan. 

agreed...  I'm thinking a weeks notice would work.

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Talking about the start of the keeper, I'm looking at a couple different processes to fill our rosters with veterans.  The one thing I know is the start of this should start with irl numbers, unless I hear a better idea is that we use the full contract length and irl cap hit (Base and Signing Bonus) for each year.  So for example, if I land Matt Ryan his cost to my cap would be as follows:

  • 2019 - Base (2.75 M) Bonus( 9.3 M) producing a cap hit of 12.05 M
  • 2020 - Base 20.5 M / Bonus 9.3 M = 29.8 M
  • 2021 - Base 23 M / Bonus 9.3 M = 32.3 M

We don't include roster bonuses or the likes we just take the listed base salary and the signing bonus for each of the years under contract.

Now, I think there is definitely some adjustments that we can make to this but even though this is a fantasy draft of sorts I'd still like to keep as much realism with this keeper as we can.

What I'm not 100% sure on is if this should be a draft or something similar to the tcmd fa bidding rounds.  

If we do a draft, how do we determine the draft order?  That is really the only big question I've got pertaining to using a fantasy draft to build the rosters at the start.

If we do a free agent bidding, then it creates some additional questions.  Because we don't want to create new contracts at the start of this keeper we could use a chip system for bidding and once those chips are spent, if you're the only person bidding on the player you would get the player.  This would allow us to fill our rosters much faster than a draft.

I think either system we decide on we could structure it so that the irl contracts (base & bonus) could be reduced by a percentage after either each round of bidding or after each round of the draft.  

Any preference on the system we use.

 

I'm also thinking about the number of members we want to use.  I know that Nacho and BDL both use a 16 member system.  Which I"m fine with adding more but while I don't think we'd have a huge problem getting 16 members to join, but getting to 32 might be tough.  One idea I had was leaving the spots open, so if some random member is just looking to join for an offseason, or maybe just looking to do one season, that we don't shut them out because we limit this to a 16 team league.  

We'd need to come up with a solution for managing teams should we not get members to cover all 32 teams.  Both options has pros and cons, I'd love to be able to work out a 32 team keeper league and really the biggest hurdle would be managing the off season because if an unmanned team happened to make the playoffs then we aren't doing our job as GM's...haha.  The downside is that it pulls players from the talent pool, but a roster with Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott should never happen.

 

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I’d prefer a draft. How we determine the order could be a random number generator. I’m sure there is one where you can put in peoples names and it will randomly put them in order. I think a snake draft would be best.

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1 minute ago, Counselor said:

I’d prefer a draft. How we determine the order could be a random number generator. I’m sure there is one where you can put in peoples names and it will randomly put them in order. I think a snake draft would be best.

I'm good with that, as long as we aren't shot for being 1 and 2 when we generate it...haha.

Actually, we could use the random formula in a public workbook, so everyone could be present when it goes down.

 

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5 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

I'm good with that, as long as we aren't shot for being 1 and 2 when we generate it...haha.

Actually, we could use the random formula in a public workbook, so everyone could be present when it goes down.

 

Yeah that would be good

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14 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Yeah that would be good

What did you think about reducing the cost after each round or every other round?  I'm thinking that this would ensure that we don't go broke the first season...haha.

 

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3 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

What did you think about reducing the cost after each round or every other round?  I'm thinking that this would ensure that we don't go broke the first season...haha.

 

Maybe each round has a set salary? Or are you really wanting to keep the irl contracts 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Maybe each round has a set salary? Or are you really wanting to keep the irl contracts 

I'd like to keep the contracts at the start to irl deals, after the first year then we use the tcmd free agency system and leave the irl contracts in the dust.

Using the irl contracts to kick it off, worked with the base / bonus structure I was thinking for the fa system after the first year.  

Take it you aren't a fan?....haha.

To be honest, I hadn't thought of any other process so I'd like to see what you suggesting looks like and how it would look.

Edited by ny92mike

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I guess my concern with setting a cap hit for each round, limits teams from picking who they want when they want, but maybe I'm looking at it wrong.

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