rcon14 Mock 5.0

[rcon14]

Rules are the same as the last mock. The trade value chart I'll be using is Rich Hill's, which looks at trades actually made under the new CBA. Board I'll be using can be found here about halfway down: https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/18210-your-packer-draft-board/?page=2

The following players go before GB's pick at 12:

Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Ed Oliver, Quinnen Williams, Montez Sweat, Brian Burns, Andre Dillard, Dwayne Haskins, Devin White, Josh Allen, and Jonah Williams

TRADE ALERT:
This has been a common one for me, and I'm going to stick with it. Packers and Giants make a trade with the Giants selecting Drew Lock...
GB receives: 17, 37
NYG receive: 12
GB extracts a premium due to two factors a) QB and b) Multiple teams targeting Lock. GB's extra value in this trade equates to approximately a mid 3rd rounder.

17. TE TJ Hockenson - Iowa - 6046, 251, 4.7 40, 9.21 RAS [Fits threshold 100%]

I want to make it clear that I am not a massive fan of this, but given how I have the board falling (essentially a "worst-case" for GB according to my board), this is still a good consolation. Picking up extra draft picks and still adding a legitimately good prospect. Hockenson seems built for the MLF/Shanahan offense. Has enough speed to stretch the field, is fluid running routes, and his blocking is obviously something GB will like. He's TE1 pretty much instantly.

30. WR Hakeem Butler - Iowa State - 6053, 227, 4.48 40 9.78 RASS [Misses 3C by .01 seconds, otherwise 100%]

A favorite of mine (I have him as WR1). Can be dominant at the catch point and his YAC ability is extremely impressive for a man of his size. Just runs through DBs and uses his strides to pull away in the open field. With GB's future at the WR position being kind of an open question (Allison last year of deal, good production from MVS/EQ for day 3 picks but still some question marks), GB fully stocks the cabinet for Rodgers.

37. S Juan Thornhill - Virginia - 6002, 205, 4.42 40, 6.86 3C, 9.75 RAS [Fits threshold 100%]

Converted CB to safety, which gives him some versatility that Pettine has like to use (Pettine loves 3 safety formations). Checks all the athletic boxes GB looks for and gives us a safety to pair with Amos from day one.

44. EDGE Chase Winovich - Michigan - 6034, 253, 4.59 40, 6.94 3C, 8.52 RAS [Fits threshold 100%]

Highly productive and athletic EDGE defender. Here are his Waldo scores as well (in percentile, per usual):
Power: 29th
S40: 97th
S10: 89th
Agility: 93rd
Twitch: 91st
Guys like this are usually really good. Also, the concern about him in the run game... Just for the haters, Winovich had the 2nd best run stop % for all EDGE in this class behind only... Montez Sweat. Winovich is EDGE 3 and is used a lot on third downs as ZDS kicks inside to 3T.

75. OL Elgton Jenkins - Mississippi State - 6044, 310, 4.62 SS, 7.77 3C, 9.21 RAS at C, 9.35 at OG, 7.82 at OT [Misses 3C by .02, otherwise 100%]

Elgton has experience at multiple OL positions, which fits perfectly into what GB has traditionally looked for. He predominantly RT or C in college, and could be a long-term solution at either guard spot or maybe RT depending on what GB wants to do with both Jason Spriggs and Billy Turner. The character concern about his "simple assault" arrest is actually a weird situation in which apparently there was a snowball fight (???) and then two of his teammates injured a guy with a snowball... idk, it is a very odd case and not something I'm remotely concerned about from a character perspective. There is a chance that in 2019 Elgton takes the LG job from Lane Taylor (or Billy Turner plays LG, Elgton RG), and then the 2020 plans depend on a) Bulaga b) Spriggs c) Turner and then d) Jenkins.

114. DL Trysten Hill - UCF - 6026, 308, 5.04 40, 4.38 SS, 7.7 3C 8.98 RAS [Fits thresholds 100%]

An athletic potential heir to Mike Daniels. Comes in actually pretty similar in terms of scouting report. A thickly built, quite athletic IDL who has an obnoxiously high motor. Will probably make some impact plays in spot snaps in year one before potentially becoming the starting 3T in year two depending on what GB does with Mike Daniels.

118. LB Blake Cashman - Minnesota - 6011, 237, 4.51 40, 4.12 SS, 6.95 3C, 9.5 RAS [Fits thresholds 100%]

Very athletic and very productive LB. Has sideline-to-sideline speed, athleticism to cover RBs and TEs, and is a reliable tackler. Outstanding blitzer, which will be well-utilized in a Pettine system. Downside here is he has T-Rex arms, but the stout front should keep him relatively clean so he shouldn't have to work off OL as much as typical LB would. Long-term Martinez replacement or complement depending on how 2019 goes.

150. CB Ken Webster - Ole Miss - 5107, 203, 4.43 40, 4.14 SS, 6.85 3C, 9.81 RAS [Fits thresholds 100%]

This is 100% a developmental project. Guy tested phenomenally well, even after a devastating knee injury in 2016. He has no idea what he's doing in man coverage from a technique perspective. He's highly competitive with good tackling prowess and he's willing to get into the muck. You're betting on a guy with great athleticism and a lot of "want" figuring out the technique portion with NFL coaching. Only has to be CB5 in year one, largely playing ST.

185. TE Foster Moreau - LSU - 6041, 253, 4.66 40, 4.11 SS, 7.16 3C, 9.48 RAS [Fits threshold 100%]

Moreau tested as a plus athlete, but likely won't be used in any type of flex-role in the NFL. However, it is possible he is used as an H-back/TE2 hybrid as his solid fluidity and well-rounded game make him a potential + in that role.

194. RB Mike Weber - Ohio State - 5095, 211, 4.47 40, 7.34 3C, 7.05 RAS [Slow 3C]

Productive pre-injury, and then was fazed into a rotational role. Not a dynamic athlete, especially in terms of "make them miss" ability, but has shown the ability to catch the football and carve out a role as part of a rotation.

226. QB Gardner Minshew - Washington State - 6007, 225, 4.95 40, 4.45 SS, 7.14 3C, 5.91 RAS [Fits exactly zero of the thresholds]

100% off threshold. Doesn't hit a thing. Too short, too slow, not quick enough. However, Minshew has a trillion reps throwing the ball, which I really value. He's never going to be a starting caliber QB in the NFL, but I think he'd be quite serviceable as a backup. Plus-plus locker room guy.

And there you have it. Barring anything coming up where I'd see a need to change strategy, this will likely be it for 2019. Thanks for reading and thanks for the discussions!

[Spartacus]

I honestly really really like this draft. You have impact players with the first 5 picks as well as some high potential guys in Cashman & Webster. Not a huge fan of Weber but i'm ok with it at that point in the draft and I want to draft the QB just for that picture. 

[Fl0nkerton]

Minshew is perfect from a meme standpoint.

Like the mock, though I flip flop on Thornhill daily.

[rcon14]

5 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

I honestly really really like this draft. You have impact players with the first 5 picks as well as some high potential guys in Cashman & Webster. Not a huge fan of Weber but i'm ok with it at that point in the draft and I want to draft the QB just for that picture. 

I'm honestly not a huge fan of Weber either, but this RB class is pretty garbage and to get one of the decent ones would probably require a fourth, which I just couldn't bump out Hill or Cashman for a RB.

[SSG]

Really, really like this draft.  I'd kill for those first 5 picks.

[Arthur Penske]

I'd be so happy if it fell like this. And I think the Giants are a likely trade partner. made @incognito_man happy with the Butler pick. I like him a lot too.

[JBURGE]

Minshew is my boy

[incognito_man]

I'm a fan of adding offensive weapons in Rnd1 after the defense heavy FA. Give me Polite at 75 instead and I'm thrilled. Big Cashman fan as well.

[deathstar]

I’m a fan of most of this. I feel like Thornhill is a step late identifying what’s going on, so having Amos there to mentor him could be beneficial. I’m concerned about Winovich’s injury, but he could be good if that checks out. I feel like Jenkins is an early round 2 player so the value there is tremendous. 

[Reaper]

If we were able to do this I would be ecstatic. I dont mind the offensive guys early and the value in the next 3 picks makes up for it.

[cannondale]

(2) TE's but only (1) Safety ?

Not sure you took advantage of the strengths of the draft. Still not a Winovich fan

[Joe]

I'd go with a different player at 44. Trysten Hill is going to go a lot earlier than expected, but I think Jeffrey Simmons at 44 may be the better selection long-term. Winovich's vision is a turn off for me and he's kind of a one-trick pony as a pass-rusher. Very raw. Other than that, I really like what you did in the second half of this in particular. Also, I could see Gettleman giving up that much to move up just a few spots. Hockenson at 17 is also fair value as well. I can't believe some are mocking him top-10; 12 is too early for him as well.

[rcon14]

8 minutes ago, cannondale said:

(2) TE's but only (1) Safety ?

Not sure you took advantage of the strengths of the draft. Still not a Winovich fan

At some point, GB can only roster so many DBs. They already have, by day 3 in this scenario: Amos, Thornhill, Jones, and Greene, not to mention Tramon as a potential safety. That doesn't factor in any UDFAs or potentially bringing back Pleasant. I don't think we'll see a scenario for multiple safeties in this draft unless they take a true full-hybrid guy like CGJ.

Also, what do you think the strengths of this draft are? And idk what to do with people concerned about Winovich. He was productive as a pass rusher, productive as a run stopper, and he tested very well. At this point, I'm just done with the discussion.

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

At some point, GB can only roster so many DBs. They already have, by day 3 in this scenario: Amos, Thornhill, Jones, and Greene, not to mention Tramon as a potential safety. That doesn't factor in any UDFAs or potentially bringing back Pleasant. I don't think we'll see a scenario for multiple safeties in this draft unless they take a true full-hybrid guy like CGJ.

Agreed, I'd love to double-dip at Safety as well, but if I'd rather get a better EDGE, DL, OL, or another TE that's the better value. It'll be interesting to see how Jones and Greene are used this year.

[rcon14]

Just now, Joe said:

Agreed, I'd love to double-dip at Safety as well, but if I'd rather get a better EDGE, DL, OL, or another TE that's the better value. It'll be interesting to see how Jones and Greene are used this year.

Also complaining about picks after round 5 always seems silly to me. We're basically complaining about UDFAs.