First impressions of Mike Mayock's first draft as GM

[Hunter2_1]

Pro-Clelin fans are going to love this...

From football outsiders - their SACK SEER model....

SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted in the years 1998-2017, and measures the following:

• The edge rusher's projected draft position. This year's projections use the rankings from ESPN's Scouts, Inc.;
• An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
• The prospect's score in the 3-cone drill;
• A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry into the NFL draft and position switches during college;
• The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played; and
• The number of medical redshirts the player either received or was eligible for.

SackSEER projection projects the number of regular season sacks that a prospect will record in his first five seasons in the NFL. Unlike SackSEER rating, SackSEER projection incorporates the projected round in which a prospect will be drafted according to ESPN's Scouts, Inc.

SackSEER rating provides a historical percentile rating on the college edge rusher's prospects for success as compared to the other prospects in SackSEER's database, irrespective of projected draft position. If you want to see how the prospects stack up based on SackSEER's trends alone, you can look at SackSEER rating; if you want to see how the prospects stack up based on SackSEER's trends when balanced against conventional wisdom, you can look at SackSEER projection.

 

Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
SackSEER Projection: 17.6 Sacks Through 5th Season
SackSEER Rating: 49.0%
Similar Historical Prospects: Victor Abiamiri, Michael Haynes

Clemson has sent a lot of edge rushers to the NFL with varying degrees of success. According to SackSEER, Ferrell is a thoroughly average draft prospect who probably does not belong in the first two rounds. Ferrell had few passes defensed in college and his sack numbers were just OK. Ferrell did not do a complete workout at the combine and did not work out at his pro day due to a toe injury. The only SackSEER-relevant drill Ferrell performed was the 3-cone, which was a below-average 7.26 seconds.

 

Full SackSEER Projections, 2019 Prospects
Edge Rusher	College	Proj. Round	Explosion Index	SRAM	PD/Rate	3-Cone	SackSEER Sack Proj.	Rating
Brian Burns	Florida State	1-2	1.61	0.75	0.21	7.01	26.6	96.1%
Josh Allen	Kentucky	1	0.48	0.64	0.21	7.15	26.3	87.5%
Montez Sweat	Mississippi State	1	1.74	0.62	0.00	7.00	25.7	89.7%
Nick Bosa	Ohio State	1	-0.11	0.65	0.07	7.10	22.1	67.4%
Rashan Gary	Michigan	1	1.12	0.36	0.00	7.26	22.1	71.8%
Zach Allen	Boston College	2	-1.08	0.40	0.43	7.34	19.6	71.8%
Oshane Ximines	Old Dominion	2-3	0.08	0.67	0.27	7.13	18.0	80.6%
Clelin Ferrell	Clemson	1-2	-0.10	0.51	0.11	7.26	17.6	49.0%
L.J. Collier	Texas Christian	1-2	-0.65	0.40	0.18	7.71	16.6	40.8%
Jachai Polite	Florida	1-2	-0.60	0.53	0.14	7.35	15.7	30.3%
John Cominsky	Charleston	5	0.19	0.39	0.25	7.03	13.7	88.8%
Chase Winovich	Michigan	2	0.23	0.40	0.02	6.94	13.5	36.7%
Ben Banogu	Texas Christian	5	1.97	0.48	0.08	7.02	12.2	85.6%
Joe Jackson	Miami	3	-1.20	0.66	0.17	7.34	12.1	50.8%
D'Andre Walker	Georgia	2-3	0.35	0.28	0.11	7.25	10.7	22.6%
Anthony Nelson	Iowa	6	0.09	0.52	0.19	6.95	10.5	82.7%
Jalen Jelks	Oregon	4	-0.75	0.40	0.31	7.22	9.9	36.4%
Porter Gustin	USC	6-7	0.53	0.76	0.15	7.25	9.7	83.6%
Maxx Crosby	Eastern Michigan	6	0.83	0.45	0.14	6.89	9.4	75.6%
Carl Granderson	Wyoming	3-4	0.19	0.42	0.14	7.44	9.3	34.4%
Jordan Brailford	Oklahoma State	5-6	1.21	0.50	0.06	7.22	8.4	66.7%
Jamal Davis	Akron	UDFA	1.26	0.24	0.24	7.00	6.7	61.5%
Justin Hollins	Oregon	UDFA	1.18	0.27	0.22	7.06	6.7	65.4%
Wyatt Ray	Boston College	5	-0.07	0.38	0.11	7.34	5.2	25.5%
Austin Bryant	Clemson	5-6	-0.37	0.42	0.09	7.34	5.1	36.0%
Charles Omenihu	Texas	4-5	-0.29	0.31	0.02	7.48	4.8	25.1%
Sutton Smith	Northern Illinois	UDFA	0.13	0.60	0.11	6.75	3.9	44.2%
Christian Miller	Alabama	6	0.60	0.36	0.07	7.28	3.9	27.1%
Shareef Miller	Penn State	4-5	-0.39	0.33	0.00	7.25	2.3	7.3%
Gerri Green	Mississippi State	UDFA	0.38	0.17	0.18	7.27	2.0	23.7%
Darryl Johnson	North Carolina A&T	UDFA	-0.31	0.63	0.19	7.33	1.3	7.1%
Malik Carney	North Carolina	UDFA	-0.14	0.45	0.11	7.40	1.0	21.2%
Jonathan Ledbetter	Georgia	UDFA	-2.19	0.12	0.00	7.55	0.0	0.7%
Cece Jefferson	Florida	UDFA	-1.50	0.23	0.09	7.50	0.0	1.8%

 

"I haven't seen one single clip of Clelin Ferrell making a play that looked like it came against an NFL-caliber tackle. I don't remember noticing him at all in any of the Clemson games I watched last year, except the one against Syracuse, which was one of those games that made me roll my eyes at the fact that they were a top-five team (which, given the performance they put on in January, could just as easily be evidence that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.) I don't put any stock in mock drafts (almost all of which had him far, far lower, and not the first Clemson defensive lineman picked), but I agree with them on this one. This feels like a huge reach."

below Zach Allen, Ximines, Sweat, Bosa, Allen and Burns...lol

[RaidersAreOne]

@Hunter2_1 "I haven't seen one single clip of Clelin Ferrell making a play that looked like it came against an NFL-caliber tackle" .... that may be one of the worst things I have read on this site. So he's either saying he hasn't seen most games (especially the championship game vs. Bama) or he doesn't consider Jonah Williams an NFL caliber LT. 

Hahaha.

[Hunter2_1]

4 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

@Hunter2_1 "I haven't seen one single clip of Clelin Ferrell making a play that looked like it came against an NFL-caliber tackle" .... that may be one of the worst things I have read on this site. So he's either saying he hasn't seen most games (especially the championship game vs. Bama) or he doesn't consider Jonah Williams an NFL caliber LT. 

Hahaha.

Yeah, nuts. I guess he's massively down on Jonah...

[SmittyBacall]

On 4/28/2019 at 4:42 PM, Chwf3rd25 said:

You're seriously misinterpreting what Mayock said.  He was simply saying that Ferrell was his DE #2, not that he was "nearly as high as Nick Bosa."

Question: "Why did both of you think he was worth that first pick?"

Mayock: "On our board, it was he and Bosa...at that position. Okay? Right next to eachother, at that position."

[MrOaktown_56]

As far as "ceiling" picks go, I understand the role of risk reward in drafting, but if you seriously look at this team, it needed talent everywhere. Reggie Mckenzie drafted "upside" players every year for the last 4-5 years on day 2 and most of them busted badly, leaving us with very little depth and defensive talent. 

Also, I agree that we need to wait and see on everything, but I don't see how this draft needs to produce elite players for it to be considered a success. If we can get 4-7 good starters out of one class on cheap contracts, I see that as a major win. Next year, with a more complete roster, we can start really honing an identity for this team with our 2 1sts and continuing to make this team more dynamic.

If you look at the skill position overhaul alone on offense, Mayock has already completely transformed this roster. 

The defense will take time, but I'm pleased that he's at least invested heavily in smart non-project players throughout.

[Xenos]

A little inside look at the Raider's draft room:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/29/nfl-draft-fmia-peter-king/

Quote

Now it’s Friday morning, the day after the Ferrell-Josh Jacobs-Johnathan Abram makeover, and I’m in the same chair in Mayock’s office that Gruden was in 24 hours earlier when just the two of them hatched the exact plan for their three-choice first round:

• At number four, try to trade down for value, but whether at four or as low as they’d like to risk going, 13 to Miami, be sure to procure Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell.

• At number 24, trust the board and the draft research. Know that Josh Jacobs was very likely to be there, and resist temptation to use draft capital to trade up.

• At number 27, be patient again and let Abram, the hard-hitting Mississippi State safety, fall to us. If he doesn’t, there will be options we like.

The phone never rang at four. Mayock and Gruden wished it had, but they never got a call. So they stayed there and picked a solid guy who won’t be the edge-rusher Josh Allen or Brian Burns will be; Gruden and defensive coordinator Paul Guenther will take his leadership and practice habits and edge-setting and hope he can be an eight to 12-sack guy. No guarantee though. Ferrell at 13, with an extra first-rounder from 2020, would have been the dream; Ferrell at four, with no extra compensation, was acceptable.

Mayock had a chance to go to 16, Carolina’s slot, and ensure getting Jacobs. Nope. He thought Jacobs would last, and he didn’t want to sacrifice a good pick. A few minutes later, Mayock went to the draft board in the draft room on the second floor of the Raiders’ facility. He wrote down seven names in red marker. He said they’d have at least two left by the time they got to pick 24.

There were not two left then. There were four. And the two Gruden and Mayock wanted above all were Jacobs and Abram.

Interesting thing happened when the emotion of drafting Jacobs died down. Now it was pick 25. Baltimore on the clock. Ravens GM Eric DeCosta surely would have dropped down two spots for a fifth-round pick, knowing it was highly likely he’d get the same guy at 27 he could get at 25. Mayock wondered if they should make the trade. Gruden pushed. Mayock said he thought Abram would be there at 27; let’s sit. Mayock ignored the ringing phone, saw Marquise Brown and Montez Sweat go at 25 and 26, and then Gruden the Golden Retriever was back.

“Can I call? When can I call?”

Funny story about Abram. At the Senior Bowl, Gruden and the Raiders were coaching the North Team. Abram was on the South, but he was not playing because of a shoulder bruise. Abram’s a football junkie and he hung around the North practice, watching Gruden and his staff coach.

“Who the hell are you?” Gruden said the first day.

“Johnathan Abram, Mississippi State.”

“Number 38! Mississippi State! I am your biggest fan!” Gruden said.

Abram was at Gruden’s practice every day the rest of the week, just watching.

On Friday night, Gruden said: “I wanted the safety. I wanted this safety. Physical, tough, smart, loves football. I didn’t want just a safety. I think it’s hard to teach tackling now. They don’t practice it. You gotta find some guys that are really eager and interested in making tackles. This guy’s a throwback Raider safety. He reminds me of Jack Tatum and George Atkinson and Charles Woodson and some of the guys we’ve had walk through here. The middle of our defense, we need to strengthen that. Man, was I happy to get him.”

When Ferrell, Jacobs and Abram came into the facility Friday afternoon, it was easy to see why Gruden and Mayock zeroed in on them. Ferrell got emotional talking about being a leader on a storied franchise. Jacobs said he wanted to play special teams, just so he could be on the field more. Abram sounded like a guy who’d taken an overnight class in Silver And Black 101.

“This place … what a rich history, what a culture, what an honor to be part of this franchise,” Abram said. “But the Silver and Black’s in need of a rebirth. Lotta great things can happen here. Antonio Brown’s here. We got a franchise quarterback. We got Vegas around the corner. It’s an amazing time in the history of this place. And we get to write the new history.”

Now a day-two postscript. Raiders were due to pick third in the second round, 35th overall. When the day started, two of the Mayock’s seven red-markered players were still on the board. Great, Mayock and Gruden thought; we’ll probably get one of them at 35.

Both red guys were there at 35. Mayock gambled, trading from 35 to 38 with Jacksonville and netting a fourth-rounder.

Both red guys, still there at 38. Mayock gambled, trading from 38 to 40 with Buffalo, netting a fifth-rounder.

At 40, they were still there. No more gambling. Mayock drafted the third of the red-markered guys, Clemson cornerback Trayvon Mullen.

What I found interesting, sitting with Mayock for 45 minutes as he digested his first night, was how much this GM job seemed like his calling. He did football games on TV, he dissected the draft on TV, and no one knows if he’ll be great at this or just okay; it’ll take years to know. But what I saw was a guy who had patience, which is the calling of good GMs. They’ve got to be willing to lose a guy they want to get the max value on a pick. Mayock showed that several times in this draft.

“I’m gonna give you a great quote that Ozzie Newsome said to me at the Senior Bowl,” Mayock said. “I’ve known Ozzie forever. He congratulated me on the job. I said, ‘Do you have any advice?’ He said, ‘Mike, having an opinion is a hell of a lot easier than having to make a decision.’ I thought that was so well said back then. And then I really felt the weight of it last night.”

---

 

[PossibleCabbage]

3 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

or he doesn't consider Jonah Williams an NFL caliber LT. 

Lot of people had Jonah's highest grade as a center.  His only really elite characteristic is mental processing/preparation, he's thoroughly average in both frame and athletic tools.

[Chwf3rd25]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Question: "Why did both of you think he was worth that first pick?"

Mayock: "On our board, it was he and Bosa...at that position. Okay? Right next to eachother, at that position."

"Right next to each other, at that position" = Ferrell is DE2.  Dont think you can clearly interpret this as meaning they had similar grades.  If you do interpret it as Mayock having Bosa and Ferrell as having really similar grades then that indicates an even bigger concern regarding Mayock's evaluation ability.

[Chwf3rd25]

9 hours ago, m haynes said:

By your logic,  the so call universe knows all. So believe in the Buckys all you want. Mayock did his job and took the best after his Evaluation the only one that matters.

 

No You can talk all you want but to say it a bad draft is ridicules. He did a great job. You don't like the players fine. You care what the Buckys say fine. Raiders had a plan and they followed through with that plan all the way to the end. That's all you can ask for when drafting.

Who was the best player in the draft????? The Buckys of the world said  Bosa, Williams, so taking Murray was a dumb move or other factors were involved. Just like the Raiders when they choose  the player they wanted. Let trade down and get him later. Oh crap he went at 9th pick. Draft shot and you blow your draft. Nice move.

You know we can watch these players ourselves

[SmittyBacall]

5 minutes ago, Chwf3rd25 said:

Dont think you can clearly interpret this as meaning they had similar grades.

?

How can you not? He clearly had them both graded as worthy of a top 5 pick.

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

?

How can you not? He clearly had them both graded as worthy of a top 5 pick.

In no where in his wording does he think Bosa and Ferrell are on the same level. Yes he probably had Ferrell #3 on his Big Board, that doesn’t mean he didn’t have Bosa and Quinnen in a whole nother class. 

[RaidersAreOne]

Fwiw:

 https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/29/raiders-wanted-to-trade-down-from-no-4-but-the-phone-never-rang/

 

[PossibleCabbage]

26 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Fwiw:

 https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/29/raiders-wanted-to-trade-down-from-no-4-but-the-phone-never-rang/

Feels like a lot of first round trades are predicated on a pre-existing relationship between executives that sort of makes things go smoothly.  Like Green Bay and Seattle keep trading- because Gutekunst and Schneider were coworkers once upon a time.  So if you're a new GM, it's sort of on you to cultivate these sorts of relationships rather than waiting for them to happen.  Like I suspect most GMs called teams around them in the draft just to touch base about "how interested you are in moving up to where we are."  It doesn't necessarily indicate that you want to move from that spot, since you have plausible deniability for "oh, there was a guy we had a huge grade on, our #1 target, there when we didn't think he would be" it just makes it easier to consummate the trade when you're on the clock.

So it feels like this is a rookie GM mistake.

[Dr LBC]

3 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Feels like a lot of first round trades are predicated on a pre-existing relationship between executives that sort of makes things go smoothly.  Like Green Bay and Seattle keep trading- because Gutekunst and Schneider were coworkers once upon a time.  So if you're a new GM, it's sort of on you to cultivate these sorts of relationships rather than waiting for them to happen.  Like I suspect most GMs called teams around them in the draft just to touch base about "how interested you are in moving up to where we are."  It doesn't necessarily indicate that you want to move from that spot, since you have plausible deniability for "oh, there was a guy we had a huge grade on, our #1 target, there when we didn't think he would be" it just makes it easier to consummate the trade when you're on the clock.

So it feels like this is a rookie GM mistake.

Interestingly enough, a newer such pairing appears to be the Rams and Patriots.

[Nastradamus]

Obviously thinks its 1999. You can't take an unathletic pass rusher, a rb and a box safety with your three firsts.