Should Haskins sit his Rookie Year?

[Woz]

The examples given as to why Haskins should sit are:

• Jimmy Garroppolo (and I suppose, by extension, Jacoby Brissett?) sat behind Tom Brady (a future first ballot Hall of Famer)
• Aaron Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre (a first ballot Hall of Famer)
• and, Patrick Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith

 

Now obviously, there is no one on Washington's roster that is going to be a 20th ballot/Senior Committee Hall of Famer, much less one on the first ballot. So, we should ignore those two cases and focus on the last one. Why did Mahomes sit?

Well, first off, the Chiefs had a former first round pick that they had trade for in Alex Smith. While the 2013-2016 vintage Smith wouldn't blow your top off, he was a decent QB so the Chiefs probably figured they could ride with the vet for a bit before turning the reins over to their rookie. Kind of like how Washington probably views Keenum (albeit with a lot less lead on the hook since they have little to no investment in Keenum).

However, when the 2017 season began, the Alex Smith-led Chiefs shot out to a 5-0 lead (including a 42-27 drubbing of the Patriots in New England). They looked hot and there was no reason to go to the rookie. Even though they would stumble a bit over the next four games, they entered their bye at 6-3 (losses to Pittsburgh, @Oakland, and @Dallas). So, the last point at which a team might consider playing the rookie QB (out of the bye week), came and went because the Chiefs were near the top of the league.

Which is interesting, because they would drop their next three games to the woeful Giants, Bills, and Jets in rapid succession coming out of the bye.

However, in their remaining four games, they had three divisional rivals (as well as the sad sack Dolphins). They went 3-0, with their final game in Denver. At this point they turned the ball over to Mahomes because they had already clinched the division (they had defeated the Chargers twice), so the game didn't matter. Mahomes then won his first start ... and Alex Smith would see his career with the Chiefs end a week later when their defense completely collapsed in the wildcard round to Tennessee.

 

So, again, if Case Keenum beats Haskins in training camp and then comes out of the gate like a man on fire, then the rookie is likely to sit for a long time.

That's not a likely scenario, though. There's also the following questions:

1. Can Keenum teach Haskins (or any other rookie QB) how to play the game in the NFL? (*)
2. Will Keenum teach Haskins (or any other rookie QB) how to play the game in the NFL? and,
3. Do we want to see Keenum teaching Haskins what he knows?

On that last question, I get where that question is coming from, but I feel like it's cheap. If nothing else, learning not to do something (or learning from another's mistakes) is also useful wisdom to be gleaned. Questions 1 and 2, however, are bigger issues.

 

Finally, here's all of the first round QBs since 2005 (and Aaron Rodgers' lengthy wait) and how long they sat before getting their first start

• Vince Young (2006 1.03) - started game 4, rookie season
• Matt Leinart (2006 1.10) - started game 5, rookie season
• Jay Cutler (2006 1.11) - started game 12, rookie season
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 1.01) - started game 16, rookie season
• Brady Quinn (2007 1.22) - started game 9, sophomore season
• Matt Ryan (2008 1.03) - started game 1, rookie season
• Joe Flacco (2008 1.18) - started game 1, rookie season
• Matthew Stafford (2009 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season
• Mark Sanchez (2009 1.05) - started game 1, rookie season
• Josh Freeman (2009 1.17) - started game 8, rookie season
• Sam Bradford (2010 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season
• Tim Tebow (2010 1.25) - started game 14, rookie season
  
  [NEW CBA TAKES EFFECT]
   
• Cam Newton (2011 1.01)  - started game 1, rookie season
• Jake Locker (2011 1.08) - started game 1, sophomore season
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 1.10) - started game 3, rookie season
• Christian Ponder (2011 1.12) - started game 7, rookie season
• Andrew Luck (2012 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season
• Robert Griffin III (2012 1.02) - started game 1, rookie season
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 1.08) - started game 1, rookie season
• Brandon Weeden (2012 1.22) - started game 1, rookie season
• E.J. Manuel (2013 1.16) - started game 1, rookie season
• Blake Bortles (2014 1.03) - started game 4, rookie season
• Johnny Manziel (2014 1.22) - started game 14, rookie season
• Teddy Bridgewater (2014 1.32) - started game 4, rookie season
• Jameis Winston (2015 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season
• Marcus Mariota (2015 1.02) - started game 1, rookie season
• Jared Goff (2016 1.01) - started game 10, rookie season
• Carson Wentz (2016 1.02) - started game 1, rookie season
• Paxton Lynch (2016 1.26) - started game 5, rookie season
• Mitch Trubisky (2017 1.02) - started game 5, rookie season
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 1.10) - started game 16, rookie season
• Deshaun Watson (2017 1.12) - started game 2, rookie season
• Baker Mayfield (2018 1.01) - started game 4, rookie season
• Sam Darnold (2018 1.03) - started game 1, rookie season
• Josh Allen (2018 1.07) - started game 2, rookie season
• Josh Rosen (2018 1.10) - started game 4, rookie season
• Lamar Jackson (2018 1.32) - started game 10, rookie season

 

If you can see any correlation with how long the player waited to start versus their career arc (or projected arc with some of the younger guys), you're a smarter man than I.

 

So, should Haskins sit? I don't know. If the coaching staff can fix his footwork issues that @e16bball has mentioned in the offseason, then perhaps no. If Keenum beats him out in training camp, then yes.

But just to have him sit because he's a rookie? That just doesn't happen anymore. There's got to be a reason for it.

 

 

(*) As the husband to a former teacher, if you tell me, "those who can, do; those who can't, teach," I will smack you. Being a teacher is a hell of a lot of work (certainly more than me being a software engineer), and requires a ton of dedication and resilience to put up with **** from teachers, administrators, and those who think it's a simple job. </rant>

[RSkinGM]

Relative to the teaching thingy.. I read somewhere that A Smith could be his mentor. Management had this idea.  Ain't like he'll have a day job ! 

[Woz]

4 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

Relative to the teaching thingy.. I read somewhere that A Smith could be his mentor. Management had this idea.  Ain't like he'll have a day job ! 

Potentially. In this case, it again comes down to capability (can he mentor?) and willingness (will he mentor?). Since I'm of the opinion that Smith's career is now over, the "will he?" question should be resolved to "yes" as that Smith has no more meaningful downs left in his body, and thus if he wants to continue in the football community, he either needs to move into announcing or coaching.

[ovfd55]

20 minutes ago, Woz said:

Potentially. In this case, it again comes down to capability (can he mentor?) and willingness (will he mentor?). Since I'm of the opinion that Smith's career is now over, the "will he?" question should be resolved to "yes" as that Smith has no more meaningful downs left in his body, and thus if he wants to continue in the football community, he either needs to move into announcing or coaching.

Patrick Mahomes and Mahomes' dad both give Alex a lot of credit for teaching things to him,so I would say his has the capability and has shown willingness in past to help someone there to take his Job.Would also guess he had a part on Kap being so effective right away in SF replacing Alex.

The only question is with the injury how often will he be in the room with Haskins.

[Woz]

1 minute ago, ovfd55 said:

Patrick Mahomes and Mahomes' dad both give Alex a lot of credit for teaching things to him,so I would say his has the capability and has shown willingness in past to help someone there to take his Job.Would also guess he had a part on Kap being so effective right away in SF replacing Alex.

The only question is with the injury how often will he be in the room with Haskins.

If this is the case, then Washington would be incredibly wise and proactive by doing whatever they need to do to have Smith have the easiest time talking to Haskins. Remember, the coaches cannot effectively talk to the players but players can talk amongst themselves. If they can get Smith to start teaching him now, that is all to the good.

[MosEisley]

It all depends on who wins the job. I'm against the idea of sitting him just because he's a rookie. If he beats out Case then he should be the starter. No offense Colt.

[Woz]

13 minutes ago, MosEisley said:

It all depends on who wins the job. I'm against the idea of sitting him just because he's a rookie. If he beats out Case then he should be the starter. No offense Colt.

Given that is questionable whether he can actually stand up without crutches when OTAs roll around, McCoy's in trouble regardless of Haskins draft position.

[MosEisley]

2 minutes ago, Woz said:

Given that is questionable whether he can actually stand up without crutches when OTAs roll around, McCoy's in trouble regardless of Haskins draft position.

Even if healthy, I think they roll with 2QB's. Isn't that Jay's move anyway?

[Woz]

4 minutes ago, MosEisley said:

Even if healthy, I think they roll with 2QB's. Isn't that Jay's move anyway?

Tends to be. I'd rather they give the spot to a 10th OL (yeah, I know, wishful thinking) or a 6 WR (given the questions in the corps) over a broken 3rd QB.

It's unlikely there will be a massive clamoring for Colt's services, so he should be lurking around if he's needed.

[rizzy]

Assuming Haskins looks at least competent I would assume they will just PUP Colt.

Edited May 2, 2019 by rizzy

[MosEisley]

12 minutes ago, Woz said:

Tends to be. I'd rather they give the spot to a 10th OL (yeah, I know, wishful thinking) or a 6 WR (given the questions in the corps) over a broken 3rd QB.

It's unlikely there will be a massive clamoring for Colt's services, so he should be lurking around if he's needed.

IMO the extra spot will be needed at CB. Still to many questions on who's the future. I doubt Norman gets extended. So who we got Moreau/Dunny some flashes from Stroman. Everyone else hasn't shown much. DRC is there to light a fire under some of the young guns, I don't think he makes the final 53.

[Woz]

27 minutes ago, rizzy said:

Assuming Haskins looks at least competent I would assume they will just PUP Colt.

Two issues with that:

1. He's got to be injured all the way through training camp until the season begins. If he practices once, he's exposed.
2. If the PUP him, his salary is guaranteed. I realize this is harsh, but if they don't plan to keep him beyond this season, why pay him for the full season and only get him for half of it where at best he's holding a clipboard?

[Woz]

27 minutes ago, MosEisley said:

MO the extra spot will be needed at CB. Still to many questions on who's the future.

Very possible. I was thinking of the position solely from an offensive side of the ledger, but it could slide to the defense.

27 minutes ago, MosEisley said:

I doubt Norman gets extended.

I concur. Very little chance they extend him anywhere near his current price tag, especially considering he would be 33 (birthday is Dec 15, 1987) when his contract expires. Arguably, it's an open question whether he sees the contract's expiration. Right now, I would say yes, as there's lots of youth and questions in the secondary, but that could change over the next two seasons.

30 minutes ago, MosEisley said:

So who we got Moreau/Dunny some flashes from Stroman. Everyone else hasn't shown much.

Yep.

BTW, (*shameless plug*) you might want to see the entire layout of age / free agency:

 

31 minutes ago, MosEisley said:

DRC is there to light a fire under some of the young guns, I don't think he makes the final 53.

Might make it as a safety. Personally, I wouldn't put any stock in a guy who quit on his team last year. But that's just me.

[offbyone]

With Jay Gruden's generally slow start, I think it is as much about the rest of the offense getting into a rhythm as Haskins learning.  We got young receivers, running backs and olinemen.  I hope he at least sits 4 games and I would like to see him sit until the bye week or the game before the bye week.

[Woz]

5 minutes ago, offbyone said:

I hope he at least sits 4 games and I would like to see him sit until the bye week or the game before the bye week.

4 games would be about the average (from my numbers above, since the new CBA, it's 4.68 games). All the way to the bye week or the week before, would be 9 or 10 games. That would be a bit surprising unless Keenum and Washington were rolling, which as you pointed out (in the section I didn't quote) is unlikely since Gruden's teams start slow.