Josh Allen vs Sam Darnold, better sophomore strides?

[VanS]

Josh Allen will be one of the leading candidates for league MVP this year.  So easily him.

I like Darnold too.  He's gonna be a really good franchise QB.  But Josh Allen is on another level.  He'll be on that Patrick Mahomes tier.

 

 

 

[FinSting]

Allen. Poor ol' Sam Darnold is having to learn a brand new offense. AGAIN

[NYJets4716]

On 6/16/2019 at 4:34 PM, VanS said:

Josh Allen will be one of the leading candidates for league MVP this year.  So easily him.

I like Darnold too.  He's gonna be a really good franchise QB.  But Josh Allen is on another level.  He'll be on that Patrick Mahomes tier.

 

 

 

Allen isn't close to Mahomes.

[VanS]

2 hours ago, NYJets4716 said:

Allen isn't close to Mahomes.

You're only saying that because Mahomes had one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history for a QB.   You probably wouldn't have said that at this time last year.  Josh Allen went higher in his draft than Mahomes went in his.  So at least according to the NFL Josh Allen was the more highly touted prospect entering the draft.

I try not to be prisoner of the moment.  I had Josh Allen rated as a better prospect coming into the NFL than Patrick Mahomes.  And there's nothing I saw from Josh Allen as a rookie to make me change my mind.  His physical tools (in particular as a runner) were even better than I anticipated.  

Now I will admit that Mahomes has exceeded my expectations for him.  I thought he would be a fringe Pro Bowl QB like Matt Stafford.  I didn't expect him to be a 1st team All-Pro NFL MVP caliber player.   With that said I think 2018 could be his high water mark like 1984 was for Dan Marino.  I know everyone expects Mahomes to repeat what he did last year.  I don't.  I believe he and the Chiefs take a step back while Josh Allen and Buffalo take a huge step forward.

Josh Allen will prove in 2019 that he's on that Patrick Mahomes tier.

[Mox]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

You're only saying that because Mahomes had one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history for a QB.   You probably wouldn't have said that at this time last year.  Josh Allen went higher in his draft than Mahomes went in his.  So at least according to the NFL Josh Allen was the more highly touted prospect entering the draft.

I try not to be prisoner of the moment.  I had Josh Allen rated as a better prospect coming into the NFL than Patrick Mahomes.  And there's nothing I saw from Josh Allen as a rookie to make me change my mind.  His physical tools (in particular as a runner) were even better than I anticipated.  

Now I will admit that Mahomes has exceeded my expectations for him.  I thought he would be a fringe Pro Bowl QB like Matt Stafford.  I didn't expect him to be a 1st team All-Pro NFL MVP caliber player.   With that said I think 2018 could be his high water mark like 1984 was for Dan Marino.  I know everyone expects Mahomes to repeat what he did last year.  I don't.  I believe he and the Chiefs take a step back while Josh Allen and Buffalo take a huge step forward.

Josh Allen will prove in 2019 that he's on that Patrick Mahomes tier.

We'll all continue to laugh at your terrible predictions and evaluations. Just don't make excuses like you did with Dobbs when you're wrong again.

[VanS]

3 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

We'll all continue to laugh at your terrible predictions and evaluations. Just don't make excuses like you did with Dobbs when you're wrong again.

Please cite one excuse I made with regard to Josh Dobbs?

I still stand by everything I've said about him.  At this time last year everyone was writing him off to even make the roster after the Steelers drafted Mason Rudolph in the 3rd round.  All Dobbs did was ball out in the preseason and win the backup job behind Big Ben.

Josh Dobbs is simply playing behind a future Hall of Fame QB that just led the league in passing yards and set the franchise record for passing TDs.   This is no different than when Aaron Rodgers didn't start his first 3 years in the NFL because he was playing behind future Hall of Famer Brett Favre.

So please get your facts straight.  I have no backed off one inch over my expectations for Josh Dobbs.  I fully expect him to be a superstar QB in the NFL when he gets his shot.  

[NYJets4716]

15 hours ago, VanS said:

You're only saying that because Mahomes had one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history for a QB.   You probably wouldn't have said that at this time last year.  Josh Allen went higher in his draft than Mahomes went in his.  So at least according to the NFL Josh Allen was the more highly touted prospect entering the draft.

I try not to be prisoner of the moment.  I had Josh Allen rated as a better prospect coming into the NFL than Patrick Mahomes.  And there's nothing I saw from Josh Allen as a rookie to make me change my mind.  His physical tools (in particular as a runner) were even better than I anticipated.  

Now I will admit that Mahomes has exceeded my expectations for him.  I thought he would be a fringe Pro Bowl QB like Matt Stafford.  I didn't expect him to be a 1st team All-Pro NFL MVP caliber player.   With that said I think 2018 could be his high water mark like 1984 was for Dan Marino.  I know everyone expects Mahomes to repeat what he did last year.  I don't.  I believe he and the Chiefs take a step back while Josh Allen and Buffalo take a huge step forward.

Josh Allen will prove in 2019 that he's on that Patrick Mahomes tier.

Allen was inaccurate in college and inaccurate in the NFL. Mahomes did not ever have that issue. 

[VanS]

5 hours ago, NYJets4716 said:

Allen was inaccurate in college and inaccurate in the NFL. Mahomes did not ever have that issue. 

Disagree on both counts.  He wasn't inaccurate in college nor was his inaccurate as a rookie.  In both cases he was stuck behind porous offensive lines and had subpar talent at the skill positions.  Just look at how Buffalo's offense performed when Josh Allen wasn't playing versus when he played.  Also consider that Josh Allen's best receiver last year was Robert Foster.  An undrafted rookie who didn't even start at Alabama.  

One of the reasons I'm high on Buffalo this year is because for the first time in his collegiate or professional career Josh Allen is actually surrounded by some talent.  I liked the Bills free agent signings at WR and along the offensive line.   With actual talent around him, I think we'll see those passing stats most try to correlate with accuracy actually reflect Josh Allen's true talent as a passer.

People will learn this year that Josh Allen was never inaccurate.  He was simply surrounded by subpar talent.  

Edited June 18, 2019 by VanS

[Thomas5737]

7 hours ago, VanS said:

Disagree on both counts.  He wasn't inaccurate in college nor was his inaccurate as a rookie.  In both cases he was stuck behind porous offensive lines and had subpar talent at the skill positions.  Just look at how Buffalo's offense performed when Josh Allen wasn't playing versus when he played.  Also consider that Josh Allen's best receiver last year was Robert Foster.  An undrafted rookie who didn't even start at Alabama.  

One of the reasons I'm high on Buffalo this year is because for the first time in his collegiate or professional career Josh Allen is actually surrounded by some talent.  I liked the Bills free agent signings at WR and along the offensive line.   With actual talent around him, I think we'll see those passing stats most try to correlate with accuracy actually reflect Josh Allen's true talent as a passer.

People will learn this year that Josh Allen was never inaccurate.  He was simply surrounded by subpar talent.  

We've seen inaccurate throws to wide open receivers when there was no pressure. He has a top 3 arm in the NFL and great mobility so there is certainly a chance at success but unless he improves his accuracy, even if you don't believe it is an issue somehow, his career path is going to continue the same path it has gone since college. Highlight plays and stalled drives because he failed to complete a pass on 3rd and 4.

[VanS]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

We've seen inaccurate throws to wide open receivers when there was no pressure. He has a top 3 arm in the NFL and great mobility so there is certainly a chance at success but unless he improves his accuracy, even if you don't believe it is an issue somehow, his career path is going to continue the same path it has gone since college. Highlight plays and stalled drives because he failed to complete a pass on 3rd and 4.

I see every QB miss easy throws every now and then.  Nothing I've seen leads me to think Josh Allen is substantially more prone to missing those easy throws than most other QBs.

If you want to criticize Josh Allen for anything it would be his decision-making.  Both in college and last year as a rookie he had a tendancy to try and go for the big play rather than take the easy check down.  This over aggressiveness is one of the biggest reasons his completion percentage is low.  It wasn't because he misses open throws constantly.  Its because he likes to go for the big play rather than the check down.  And obviously deep shots down the field have a lower rate of success than check downs.

Along with better talent around him, improved decision-making should make a huge difference in Josh Allen's completition percentage moving forward.   There are no physical limitations or serious flaws to Allen's game.    The only thing holding him back from being an MVP candidate this year is better decision-making.

[bigbadbuff23835]

17 hours ago, VanS said:

I see every QB miss easy throws every now and then.  Nothing I've seen leads me to think Josh Allen is substantially more prone to missing those easy throws than most other QBs.

If you want to criticize Josh Allen for anything it would be his decision-making.  Both in college and last year as a rookie he had a tendancy to try and go for the big play rather than take the easy check down.  This over aggressiveness is one of the biggest reasons his completion percentage is low.  It wasn't because he misses open throws constantly.  Its because he likes to go for the big play rather than the check down.  And obviously deep shots down the field have a lower rate of success than check downs.

Along with better talent around him, improved decision-making should make a huge difference in Josh Allen's completition percentage moving forward.   There are no physical limitations or serious flaws to Allen's game.    The only thing holding him back from being an MVP candidate this year is better decision-making.

Damn, i hope you are right!!!

Still not a big fan of the talent around him, although I am expecting BIG BIG things from Zay Jones this year (70+ catches 1200 yards) I know it’s a stretch but hopefully this is the year he takes the next step, he was much better last year than a rookie i want to see the improvements continue.

[NJC33]

18 hours ago, VanS said:

The only thing holding him back from being an MVP candidate this year is better decision-making.

That's a stretch lol.

Allen has an immense amount of potential but to say he doesn't have accuracy issues is comical. Doesn't mean he can't improve.  

[VanS]

8 hours ago, NJC33 said:

That's a stretch lol.

Allen has an immense amount of potential but to say he doesn't have accuracy issues is comical. Doesn't mean he can't improve.  

When I watch QBs play I rarely see great accuracy or bad accuracy.  The real differentiater is decision-making.  Tom Brady for all his greatness isn't dropping dimes everytime he drops back.  Most of his completions are routine and go between 10-15 yards through the air.   His greatness comes from mastery of the offense, anticipating what the defense will do, and great decision-making.  Sure there are a few throws here and there that will wow you.  But for most of the game, even the best QBs are making routine throws almost every other QB can make.   What makes them great is they are able to anticipate the throws and know when not to make a throw.

Whenever I hear people use accuracy as an excuse for not liking a QB or an excuse for liking one, it holds no meaning to me.   Very few QBs make "WOW" throws every play and very few are missing everything.  The margin between the best and those that are subpar is more above the shoulders than below.  With experience and growth I anticipate Josh Allen will be as good as any QB in the NFL.  His physical tools and intangibles are as good as it gets. 

Edited June 20, 2019 by VanS

[HoboRocket]

The question isn't "Who's the better QB?" It isn't "Who will have the better sophomore season?" It's "Which QB improves more on their sophomore season?" 

Easily Josh Allen. He has a lower benchmark than Sam Darnold. I thought Josh Allen's best games were more impressive than Darnolds'. He had some pretty low lows as a passer, though. That makes him a more likely candidate for improvement across the board. Allen had a rating of 67.9 as a rookie. Darnold had a rating of 77.6. Yes, that means that Darnold was a more advanced passer, but it also means that Darnold needs to hit a higher rating than Allen needs to in order to show improvement. Allen could not an 87, which is an okay rating, and at that point, he's improved by about 20 points. If Darnold hits a 92, he's only improved by 15. JOSH ALLEN DOESNT NEED TO BE AS GOOD AS DARNOLD TO IMPROVE MORE THAN HIM.

With this guy coming into the league, I said that his worst case scenario was high-character Blake Bortles. His ceiling is best QB in the league. 

Josh Allen was higher on my list as far as character goes than Darnold heading into the draft. He's always been a harder worker. That goes in his favor for improving more than Darnold.

To pair with that, I think that Allen's supporting cast improved more than Darnolds' overall. Let's compare apples to apples with what they GAINED (since that's all that's relevant to how much their supporting cast improved on-paper): 

Darnold gained Le'Veon Bell and Kelechi Osemele. Two very high-quality players. A very good guard and a very good running back. Cool. We all know that Bell is pretty good, but a lot of running backs are these days. Bell is a proven All-Pro, so he should be a top-six or so talent-wise, up there with Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, James Conner, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Philip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, Kenyan Drake, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, LeSean McCoy, Chris Carson and Devonta Freeman. So that's great for their running game. He also got a nice slot receiver in Jamison Crowder. Crowder was Washington's top offensive weapon for a few years, but never really was an elite game-changer. More of a guy who has nice hands and can work underneath routes. He'll turn targets into receptions and yards. He's not bad, but was more along the lines of a Cole Beasley. Good option on third down. Sadly, Trevon Wesco was the only help they gave Darnold through the draft. I like Wesco, but he doesn't have elite athleticism or anything.

Josh Allen gained a starting-caliber tackle in free agency in Ty Nsekhe. He's been a stud as a fill-in while playing for Washington. He also got Mitch Morse, a fantastic center who was very good for the Kansas City Chiefs during Mahomes' run at MVP. Allen also gained Spencer Long, who was good at times in Washington and terrible at times with the Jets. He got Quinton Spain, who was pretty solid for the most part with the Titans over the past three seasons. He got Cody Ford via the draft, who could be a really great guard or maybe even tackle for the Bills.

As far as weapons go, the Bills spent a third-round pick on Devin Singletary, who was one of my favorite runningbacks this year. They also drafted TE Dawson Knox, who is an athletic freak and played very well at Ole Miss, but was criminally underused. They signed John Brown, who is yet another dynamic deep threat to add to the Bills' roster who has flashed as a #1 WR at times throughout his career, as well as Cole Beasley, who is a fine checkdown piece. 

Overall, Allen has the most improved supporting cast. He's the harder worker. He has the higher athletic ceiling. And, to go with all of that, he has a lower benchmark for improvement. All signs point to both improving, but Allen will likely improve by a greater amount. We have yet to see who will actually be better in year two.

 

[Elky]

On 6/16/2019 at 4:34 PM, VanS said:

Josh Allen will be one of the leading candidates for league MVP this year.  So easily him.

I like Darnold too.  He's gonna be a really good franchise QB.  But Josh Allen is on another level.  He'll be on that Patrick Mahomes tier.