goldfishwars Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, Buckweath said: Lol. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Chiefs are about to field a powerhouse this season. They will be a juggernaut. Hill is obviously an important player for the offense but this offense even without him all season is still absolutely an elite offense. Why though? I keep seeing this sentiment expressed without much reasoning behind it. Having Hill on the field changes everything a defense does, makes them way less risk adverse and able to divert resources elsewhere. We haven’t seen how a Mahomes led-offense operates without him. I still think it’ll be a good offense, but with Hill on the field they managed to outscore teams despite fielding a 31st ranked defense in the league. I don't see anything they did over the off-season which tells me that defense is going to be exponentially better as they merely focussed their energies on getting guys that fit Spag’s system rather than improving the personnel. And if your answer is ‘Spag’ is better than Sutton, then cool. But remember Spag’s defensive rankings over his last seven seasons as a coordinator are 29,19,22,32,32,10,31. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, goldfishwars said: Why though? I keep seeing this sentiment expressed without much reasoning behind it. Having Hill on the field changes everything a defense does, makes them way less risk adverse and able to divert resources elsewhere. We haven’t seen how a Mahomes led-offense operates without him. I still think it’ll be a good offense, but with Hill on the field they managed to outscore teams despite fielding a 31st ranked defense in the league. I don't see anything they did over the off-season which tells me that defense is going to be exponentially better as they merely focussed their energies on getting guys that fit Spag’s system rather than improving the personnel. And if your answer is ‘Spag’ is better than Sutton, then cool. But remember Spag’s defensive rankings over his last seven seasons as a coordinator are 29,19,22,32,32,10,31. If he is suspended for the season (which he won't be), the Chiefs are in trouble. But it seems to be more like 3-4 games. Their September schedule isn't as daunting so they could be 3-1 without him. I don't see the Chiefs averaging 30 points without him though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, SBLIII said: If he is suspended for the season (which he won't be), the Chiefs are in trouble. But it seems to be more like 3-4 games. Their September schedule isn't as daunting so they could be 3-1 without him. I don't see the Chiefs averaging 30 points without him though. If he's suspended for 4 games, then the Chiefs will be Super Bowl contenders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckweath Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, goldfishwars said: Why though? I keep seeing this sentiment expressed without much reasoning behind it. Having Hill on the field changes everything a defense does, makes them way less risk adverse and able to divert resources elsewhere. We haven’t seen how a Mahomes led-offense operates without him. I still think it’ll be a good offense, but with Hill on the field they managed to outscore teams despite fielding a 31st ranked defense in the league. I don't see anything they did over the off-season which tells me that defense is going to be exponentially better as they merely focussed their energies on getting guys that fit Spag’s system rather than improving the personnel. And if your answer is ‘Spag’ is better than Sutton, then cool. But remember Spag’s defensive rankings over his last seven seasons as a coordinator are 29,19,22,32,32,10,31. With Hill last season, this wasn't just the best offense in the league, it was one of the top offenses in the history of the game. Without Hill, the offense is certainly a bit worse. But you've got Mahomes who is a special talent. Andy Reid is a great offensive coach. You've got Kelce arguably the best TE in the game. The Oline should be at least decent. You've got a group of WRs and RBs which is decent even without Hill. But mostly, it's Mahomes and Reid. They are a superstar combination. When looking at the defense, Frank Clark is proven and he is expected to be great this season. I see some people say the Chiefs lost some by replacing Houston and Ford by Clark but then they added Okafor, Nnadi looks like he will be a good one, etc. Looking at the Dline, I expect a bit less passrush than last year which was excellent but much better run defense. Hitchens and Ragland were absolutely dreadful last year. A fair guess I believe would be that their level of play this season will be somewhere in the middle between their awful play last year and their level the year before which was good. Tyrann Mathieu is a good addition. And no Eric Berry is no loss. He hasn't been playing for two years. Mathieu and Thornhill is actually expected to be a solid duo next year which is a marked improvement over last season. All in all, I see definitly much improved personnel at safety, a better Dline for the reasons stated above and a LB group who can only be better than last year but which could still be well below-average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckweath Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, goldfishwars said: If he's suspended for 4 games, then the Chiefs will be Super Bowl contenders. As good as Tyreek Hill is, it is very clear that you overrate his impact on the Chiefs offense. There is no way he is the difference between an 8-8 team and a Superbowl contender, especially not with Mahomes and Reid. It is a bit like the Leveon Bell and Steelers' situation. A lot of people thought no Bell would hurt the Steelers offense a ton but it did not hurt it that much. Their offense was a lot more than Bell. Edited July 4, 2019 by Buckweath Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom cody Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 I think the Chiefs will still be good in 2019 but Mahomes is going to take a step back this year from what he did last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Buckweath said: It is a bit like the Leveon Bell and Steelers' situation. Actually, its not at all like the Bell/Steelers situation. Hill alters how a defense aligns/plays both at the LOS and in the secondary as others have described , Bell does not. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Buckweath said: As good as Tyreek Hill is, it is very clear that you overrate his impact on the Chiefs offense. There is no way he is the difference between an 8-8 team and a Superbowl contender, especially not with Mahomes and Reid. It is a bit like the Leveon Bell and Steelers' situation. A lot of people thought no Bell would hurt the Steelers offense a ton but it did not hurt it that much. Their offense was a lot more than Bell. No I don't, that whole offense ran through him and Kelce last season. I've explained why, because I don't think they're a guaranteed 30 points per game offense without him and they might still need to be. It's nothing like the Bell situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bolts223 Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Buckweath said: As good as Tyreek Hill is, it is very clear that you overrate his impact on the Chiefs offense. There is no way he is the difference between an 8-8 team and a Superbowl contender, especially not with Mahomes and Reid. It is a bit like the Leveon Bell and Steelers' situation. A lot of people thought no Bell would hurt the Steelers offense a ton but it did not hurt it that much. Their offense was a lot more than Bell. The Steelers have consistently had a fantastic O-line that makes a lot of RB's look really great. DeAngelo Williams put up great numbers in 2015 when Bell was out most of that season. RB's in general are notoriously replaceable, so comparing that situation to this one is apples to oranges. Hill is the fastest WR in the game and the speed he is able to cut at is unbelievable. Despite him being a garbage human, he's a once in a generation type of talent. On every single play Tyreek has to be accounted for and that does so much for an offense to free up other guys. Without him, defenses are way more free to be a lot more aggressive. Will the Chiefs offense still be good? Yeah I'm sure it will be. But not having Tyreek changes how defenses are able to play the Chiefs O - they are going to be able and willing to blitz a lot more. Put double teams on Kelce and make the likes of Watkins beat them. That isn't even to mention that Tyreek's impact on Special Teams and that he probably generates 2-3 extra TD's per season off that alone. Edited July 4, 2019 by Bolts223 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckweath Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bolts223 said: The Steelers have consistently had a fantastic O-line that makes a lot of RB's look really great. DeAngelo Williams put up great numbers in 2015 when Bell was out most of that season. RB's in general are notoriously replaceable, so comparing that situation to this one is apples to oranges. Hill is the fastest WR in the game and the speed he is able to cut at is unbelievable. Despite him being a garbage human, he's a once in a generation type of talent. On every single play Tyreek has to be accounted for and that does so much for an offense to free up other guys. Without him, defenses are way more free to be a lot more aggressive. Will the Chiefs offense still be good? Yeah I'm sure it will be. But not having Tyreek changes how defenses are able to play the Chiefs O - they are going to be able and willing to blitz a lot more. Put double teams on Kelce and make the likes of Watkins beat them. That isn't even to mention that Tyreek's impact on Special Teams and that he probably generates 2-3 extra TD's per season off that alone. I'd be really curious to know what you had say when going into last season, there was the possibility that Bell would hold out for a long period of time. Let's just say that I'm pretty sure that yourself or most people did not think the Steelers could easily replace Bell. Anyways, I've seen how Hill affects defenses with those lateral motions and deep threats but even without Hill all season, the Chiefs would be right in the mix for best offense in the league (meaning definitly top 5). I strongly believe that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 13. Chicago Bears What’s New in 2019: Chuck Pagano comes into the replace Fangio at DC, which feels like a net loss based on how those Colts defences looked at the end of his tenure there. Ha-Ha Clinton Dix reaches his third destination in five NFL seasons after Adrian Amos left for his old stomping ground Green Bay. A very brief draft class was headlined by running back David Montgomery, who is built for a big workload. Roster Strengths: Wide Receiver – The Robinson-Gabriel-Miller trio has a nice blended skill-set and they’ve got some interesting depth behind with new FA signing Cordarelle Patterson and a potentially underrated Riley Ridley via the draft Interior Defensive Line – Akiem Hicks continues to be that one guy the Patriots should never have let out of the building (I'm sure Saints fans feel similarly) and Eddie Goldman continues to be a rock in the middle. Bilal Nichols was a handful in his rookie season and has plenty to build on. Elsewhere – Khalil Mack was a one-man wrecking crew when he came onboard last year and Eddie Jackson has been a phenomenon at safety since he was drafted Roster Weaknesses: Roster Depth – The offensive line depth is poor at tackle which gets by at being average as is. There are similar depth issues on the interior of that line and cornerback is similarly exposed should Kyle Fuller or Prince Amukamara go down. Breakout Player: Anthony Miller – I loved him coming out last year, he’s an excellent route runner with endless bouts of energy and plays with a real competitive edge. Everything is in place for him to flourish from the slot this year. How they can win in 2019: I don’t mean this to be too disparaging, but they’ve got to figure out what Mitch Trubisky excels at to get this offense ticking. They’ve done well to give him passing options and help in the running game, but now he need to deliver in his third season. The steps he took in his second year look like baby steps compared to the peers drafted behind him in the 2017 class. Outside of the consistency improvements from Trubisky, the team needs a clean bill of health on the offensive line and an identity at running back with Jordan Howard out of town. A working combination of Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery can help fuel this whole offense if it clicks. On defense, they have to ensure the Fangio loss doesn't impact them too much. The front seven should be a powerhouse and if it’s not, then something has gone seriously wrong because there’s so much talent available at Chicago’s disposal. Roquan Smith should be primed to have a breakthrough season after an acceptable rookie year and there’s probably still some hope Leonard Floyd can make the most of the single-man blocks heading his way with offensive teams having their hands full elsewhere. It's a make or break year for him. In the secondary, they've got Bryce Callaghan's spot to fill at slot corner and Adrian Amos's at free safety. Neither of those are a given and both were very good for the Bears last year. Predicted record 2019: 8-8 - They’ve got an ugly schedule to work through and with that in mind, I think they’re a ‘regression to the mean’ candidate for this season if Trubisky and the offense can't take those needed steps forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, goldfishwars said: Chuck Pagano comes into the replace Fangio at DC, which feels like a net loss This is one change that I think is under- rated by many fans. Fangio is one of the best and replacing his contribution isn't a plug & play affair with Pagano. One of the things DC Mike Pettine talked about after his 1 year hiatus is that you're not totally in tune with all of the current players/teams because you're not game- planning every week. Not only has Pagano been away from the game for a year, he's also spent the last decade in the AFC. Both of those make it an uphill climb for Chuck in the NFC. Plenty of talent on that squad, but its unlikely to be seamless and highly likely to be a net loss. (I'm really enjoying this series, a thousand thanks for the effort) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 3 hours ago, tom cody said: I think the Chiefs will still be good in 2019 but Mahomes is going to take a step back this year from what he did last year. How can Mahomes not take a step back? Dude put together a top 5 season long performance in QBing history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomas5737 Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 So are the top 12 (6 from each conference) your projected playoff teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Shanedorf said: (I'm really enjoying this series, a thousand thanks for the effort) Thanks man, appreciate it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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