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The Milwaukee Yelichs Thread - Love This Team

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1 minute ago, packerbacker87 said:

Bless u my good people. Gotta go pick the golf range at 6am. Dont bash me while im asleep ?

No bashing here. Miss the days where I could go to work hungover lol.

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3 minutes ago, packerbacker87 said:

I think it was either Chuck and winkler or bill Michaels that said we have had so many big name prospects that Everyone loves and gets attached to that never do anything on the mlb level, but we will cut guys like scooter G or find guys like aguilar. I cant recall any brewer prospect we dealt for a player that made me regret anything. Cc sabathia, greinke... who else? Maybe Cain? And hes back in town

First off, I wouldn't reference Chuck and Winkler or Bill Michaels when it comes to baseball...or anything really. Secondly, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz?

Won't count Michael Brantley due to what CC did for us but that was an exception.

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From JosephC over on Brewerfan

Quote

Just to rehash the prospect surplus value numbers.

Baltimore is up to 91 games played.
Machado's Fangraphs WAR = 3.2. Baseball Reference WAR = 2.1.
Let's just, to put the max value on him, credit him at 3.2 WAR through 91 games. Extrapolate that out to 162 games makes him a 5.7 WAR player. And just to make the math that much easier, put him at 6 WAR over the season which makes him a 1 WAR per month player. That's taking the high number and "rounding up" through the process. Maybe one could argue that putting the max on Machado also factors in any playoff contributions, everyone here can decide on their own if that's legitimate or not.

1 WAR = 9.16 million. Machado makes 16 million this year...16 million/6 months or approximately 2.67 million per month.

So doing the easy math, Machado has about 6.5 million dollars of surplus value per month. Trade for him on July 31st, fair package would have approximately 13 million in prospect surplus value headed to Baltimore. Trade for him on July 16, fair package would have about 16.25 million headed to Baltimore.

I think both Ortiz and Phillips easily slot into the "top 10 organizational prospect" tier which I have as holding 11.45 million dollars in prospect surplus value. So a trade tonight for Ortiz and Phillips would have 22.9 million in surplus heading to Baltimore, and with 2/3's of July still left the Brewers would be getting approximately 17.36 million dollars in surplus value with Machado. Even with the 5.5 million dollar advantage to the Orioles, I still think this is within the limit of calling it an "even enough" swap. But what the numbers do tell me is that an offer of Ortiz and Phillips should be the top offer the Brewers make, and once it gets past the All-Star break the Brewers should pull one of those two guys out of the offer and insert a lower rated prospect. Getting beyond that, and it's overpaying for a rental IMO.

Does a great job explaining things.

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8 hours ago, bkobow05 said:

From JosephC over on Brewerfan

Does a great job explaining things.

Teams pay far more than $9M/WAR. That works in the offseason, when there are tons of free agents available in addition to the trade market, plus teams have far more uncertainty in terms of how their next season will unfold. During peak trading season, historically teams have payed somewhere around twice as much per win.

So that puts Machado at $31.2M surplus value. But that's dependent on a team's relative playoff odds and the number of all-in buyers at the trade deadine. The AL races being decided make it more buyer friendly, but the wide open NL and the fact that Machado is going to draw interest from a lot of teams that need a SS/3B will make it more seller friendly for the Orioles.

Then there's the "organizational top 10 prospect" issue. Teams aren't doing surplus value that way, they have their own projections, and both Phillips/Ortiz would be players I'd expect teams would be lower on relative to their industry ranking. Even if you use a nominal $20M for them both, we're $10M short. Which is why I don't think the Arcia/Ortiz/Phillips offer that was immediately dismissed as homer by Brewerfan is actually out of line and why I don't think we should go after Machado unless the O's are willing to sell at a discount, which they aren't.

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9 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

No bashing here. Miss the days where I could go to work hungover lol.

Seriously. @packerbacker87 is doing Wisconsin proud. Get some pedialyte man.

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10 hours ago, packerbacker87 said:

Chacin Braun are bad deals. Im just saying brad miller is 4 million vogt is 3 million. Villar is 3 million. 

I wonder if Vogt ever plays again...

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I just tried to add more votes for Aguilar and the link doesn't seem to be taking me to the ballot site.  :(

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1 hour ago, packerbacker87 said:

I drink like a fish and get up everyday like its nothing!!! ?

I can vouch for this hahah 

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@JimBowdenGM

Hearing that #Brewers have discussed package that would send:

1. Corbin Burnes RHP
2. Keon Broxton CF
3. Orlando Arcia SS

to #Orioles for Manny Machado.

Not confirmed.

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4 minutes ago, BrettFavre004 said:

@JimBowdenGM

Hearing that #Brewers have discussed package that would send:

1. Corbin Burnes RHP
2. Keon Broxton CF
3. Orlando Arcia SS

to #Orioles for Manny Machado.

Not confirmed.

This would make me kind of sad if Burnes is part of the deal. Not for a short rental. 

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Probably worth it for your thread as well as for the Twins thread.

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