Causes for 2019 Concern: Volume II

[soulman]

Causes for 2019 Concern: Volume II

Johnathan Wood | August 2nd, 2019

https://dabearsblog.com/2019/causes-for-2019-concern-volume-ii

Now we return to the list of reasons the Bears might struggle to repeat 2018’s success.

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IV. Cornerback Penalties

New nickelback Buster Skrine was flagged 7 times for 107 yards in 2018. Those numbers were 14th and 7th highest, respectively, among all defensive backs.

Prince Amukamara also has a knack for drawing flags; he drew 8 for 90 yards (8th and 13th among DBs) in 2018, and had 2 more get declined.

And 2018 wasn’t an outlier for either player. Skrine had 11 flags for 105 yards in 2017, while Amukamara had 7 for 99.

You can live with having one penalty-prone player in your secondary, but two is a bit more of a concern. All it takes is one big penalty in a key moment to swing a close game.

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V. David Montgomery and/or Anthony Miller

I’m grouping these two together as relatively unproven young players who will be counted on for big roles in 2019. For Chicago’s offense to take the step forward that is needed to win a Super Bowl, Miller needs to supplant Taylor Gabriel as the WR2 and Montgomery needs to beat out Mike Davis as the starting RB. I think there are excellent reasons to be high on both Montgomery and Miller, but what happens if one or both of them aren’t ready?

Davis and Gabriel are both solid veterans who are capable role players, but neither is a guy who should be a main cog in a top-level offense. Miller and Montgomery are capable of doing just that, but they could hold the offense back if they fail to prove it in 2019.

 

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VI. Trubisky

And now I’ll end with the elephant in the room. 2018 Trubisky had incredibly high highs (Tampa Bay and Detroit) and very low lows (Minnesota the 1st time, LA Rams). Overall his season ended up about average, but he generally tore up really bad defenses and struggled against good ones.

That’s not going to win a Super Bowl. If the Bears are going to take the next step in 2019, Trubisky will have to be significantly better than he has been so far. Super Bowl winning teams, by and large, have top-level quarterbacks. Even after taking a step forward in 2018, Trubisky still has a long way to go before you can say that about him.

Realistically, if some of the first five concerns go wrong and Trubisky doesn’t take a step forward, the 2019 Bears are in trouble.

[soulman]

Can't really predict CB penalties now that they're reviewable.  Could be more or could be less.  Hopefully the refs let them play and call only the most obvious.

Not worried about WR or RB.  We're both talented and deep.

I'll predict Mitch will be much better especially downfield.  ARob will help with that.  But I wish the hell some of the media would stop comparing him to Mahomes.  Mitch is the right fit for us just as Mahomes is the right fit in KC.  Maybe if we win a SB and KC doesn't it will put and end to it.

[dll2000]

11 hours ago, soulman said:

Can't really predict CB penalties now that they're reviewable.  Could be more or could be less.  Hopefully the refs let them play and call only the most obvious.

Not worried about WR or RB.  We're both talented and deep.

I'll predict Mitch will be much better especially downfield.  ARob will help with that.  But I wish the hell some of the media would stop comparing him to Mahomes.  Mitch is the right fit for us just as Mahomes is the right fit in KC.  Maybe if we win a SB and KC doesn't it will put and end to it.

Look.  Mahomes is better than MT.  Or he certainly looked like it last year.  Whether he can maintain that level of excellence remains to be seen, but his talent was evident.  

What good does it do to talk about it?  

MT is our guy and there is a lot to like about him.

He is a very good mobile QB with a strong arm.  He works really, really hard and wants to succeed.  He is smart.  

Those qualities mean he can possibly keep growing throughout his career and be really good into his thirties where some other guys will fall off as their atheltic ability lessens.  

 

[AZBearsFan]

15 hours ago, soulman said:

But I wish the hell some of the media would stop comparing him to Mahomes.  Mitch is the right fit for us just as Mahomes is the right fit in KC.  Maybe if we win a SB and KC doesn't it will put and end to it.

People love crying about shoulda woulda coulda, man. McClellin over Chandler Jones. Kamara being taken with one of the picks from the Mitch trade. Not trading up for Aaron Donald. People act like this **** was all knowns in retrospect while completely ignoring the legitimate concerns that were there (outside McClellin) like that Mahomes going into the draft had the most bust potential of the top 3 QBs too, that the Bears probably weren’t taking Kamara anyway with Jordan Howard coming off of a pro bowl rookie season, or that Donald was a 280 lb DT who had that “offseason mega riser” thing that usually foreshadows guys who underachieve to it once they get in the league. So much of crafting a team as a GM is risk management, but people by and large refuse to consider the potential downside of moves at the time when they look in the mirror. 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

People love crying about shoulda woulda coulda, man. McClellin over Chandler Jones. Kamara being taken with one of the picks from the Mitch trade. Not trading up for Aaron Donald. People act like this **** was all knowns in retrospect while completely ignoring the legitimate concerns that were there (outside McClellin) like that Mahomes going into the draft had the most bust potential of the top 3 QBs too, that the Bears probably weren’t taking Kamara anyway with Jordan Howard coming off of a pro bowl rookie season, or that Donald was a 280 lb DT who had that “offseason mega riser” thing that usually foreshadows guys who underachieve to it once they get in the league. So much of crafting a team as a GM is risk management, but people by and large refuse to consider the potential downside of moves at the time when they look in the mirror. 

And they really wanted Donald.  They just fell a little short.  

[Epyon]

5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

And they really wanted Donald.  They just fell a little short.

The GM at the time just lacked the stones/foresight to move up and get his guy, something Pace has yet to do...

Also, I think it's worth pointing out that, while Kyle Fuller had a rougher start of his career.... He's really come along the past few years and blossomed into a damn good corner, even if we didn't get what looks like a future HoF player in Donald... I'd add that if we had gotten Donald, I don't think we'd currently have Mack or necessarily have filled that Corner spot.

 

Regarding Trubisky, I'm more bitter because I really wanted Mahomes that draft... but people are forgetting that we had Jon Fox at that point... and good lord, Mahomes with his gunslinging mentality learning under Jon Fox would have substantially increased the bust chances. It's hard to say with confidence he'd have become the player he was last year in that situation. Likewise in the Aaron Donald situation, I don't really think the player we got is bad. He probably isn't going to have a season like Mahomes did last year, but I do think he's already performing better than I had expected him to, and seemingly has the perfect mentality/personality fit for the team as a whole, and appears to genuinely care about continually improving himself and the people around him... Overall, like with Fuller,  I'm probably more optimistic towards Mitch than I was when we drafted him, and happier with the selection in general... It'll be fun to see if he really can take those next steps, because he has all the physical and mental tools to do so, and some incredibly talent to help carry the load if he doesn't quite reach those elite levels.

[Heinz D.]

Although I have to admit that it's a perfectly reasonable position to take to not be quite as high on Miller as I am, it's pretty silly to think Montgomery supplanting Davis is anything short of a probability. 

[dll2000]

8 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Although I have to admit that it's a perfectly reasonable position to take to not be quite as high on Miller as I am, it's pretty silly to think Montgomery supplanting Davis is anything short of a probability. 

I think everyone assumed Montgomery would be the bell cow and he may one day be.  But it looks like Davis is going to get his fair share of carries early on and he deserves it so far in camp.  

Still early.  My current theory is Montgomery is one of those guys that shines mostly in live play because of physical nature of his game.  Not as good of a practice player where there is seldom live tackling.  

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

I think everyone assumed Montgomery would be the bell cow and he may one day be.  But it looks like Davis is going to get his fair share of carries early on and he deserves it so far in camp.  

Still early.  My current theory is Montgomery is one of those guys that shines mostly in live play because of physical nature of his game.  Not as good of a practice player where there is seldom live tackling.  

I think until we see either in live game action it’ll be hard to draw any conclusions but in the limited live tackling stuff at Friday’s practice Montgomery both looked better and got most of the initial reps with the 1s. It sure seems like the team expects him to be that guy, even though I think all 3 RBs get significant run. 

Tarik is really the one in the group that keeps confusing me with regard to his role. Both Montgomery and Davis are in that Hunt/Ware mold of dual threat traditional runner while Cohen is far less diverse but also the most explosive. They’re going to have to get him on the field a lot but whose place he is taking on any given rep I think is far more variable. 

Based on last year’s 400 RB rushes my expectation for carries outside of any injuries is something like this:

Montgomery: 200-240 

Cohen: 60-90

Davis: 60-90

Admittedly though there’s no real basis for that. 

[WindyCity]

My concerns

1. TE, they did so little at the position and Shaheen is already banged up.

2. OL, they are good, but we need them to be better and consistently so.

3. Health, the Bears were blessed with great health last season.

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, WindyCity said:

TE, they did so little at the position and Shaheen is already banged up.

I know we disagree about the need for TE depth, but for argument’s sake say both Burton and Shaheen were out - don’t you think Nagy would go 4WR a whole bunch or 3WR 2RB given the depth we have at both of those positions? Last year Burton being out was crippling because we realistically had 2 NFL established WR, 2 rookie WR one of whom was playing on one arm, Josh Bellamy, and a starting RB that couldn’t catch. We don’t have any such problems this year. We have at least 5 NFL caliber WR even if Ridley is a complete miss and 3 RB who are true receiving threats even if we are starting our backup OL at TE. We are in a situation right now where we are trying to figure out how we can get everyone who should get touches enough touches. Our depth protection against TE injuries comes in the surplus depth elsewhere. Last year if we went 4WR with Howard in we were playing 11 on 10. That isn’t so in 2019. Having our TE depth be on the shelf would alter game plans for sure but IMO it wouldn’t be something that couldn’t be overcome at all. 

[blkwdw13]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

I know we disagree about the need for TE depth, but for argument’s sake say both Burton and Shaheen were out - don’t you think Nagy would go 4WR a whole bunch or 3WR 2RB given the depth we have at both of those positions? Last year Burton being out was crippling because we realistically had 2 NFL established WR, 2 rookie WR one of whom was playing on one arm, Josh Bellamy, and a starting RB that couldn’t catch. We don’t have any such problems this year. We have at least 5 NFL caliber WR even if Ridley is a complete miss and 3 RB who are true receiving threats even if we are starting our backup OL at TE. We are in a situation right now where we are trying to figure out how we can get everyone who should get touches enough touches. Our depth protection against TE injuries comes in the surplus depth elsewhere. Last year if we went 4WR with Howard in we were playing 11 on 10. That isn’t so in 2019. Having our TE depth be on the shelf would alter game plans for sure but IMO it wouldn’t be something that couldn’t be overcome at all. 

If that were the case then why use a TE at all, why not just forgo the position similar to the FB. All I’m saying with Shaheen being injured again the TE depth is extremely thin and even with him it is thin because he has proven nothing so far. 

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, blkwdw13 said:

If that were the case then why use a TE at all, why not just forgo the position similar to the FB. All I’m saying with Shaheen being injured again the TE depth is extremely thin and even with him it is thin because he has proven nothing so far. 

I don’t disagree with this at all. My point is that the lack of TE depth can be largely if not wholly mitigated by depth at the more primary skill positions. Being able to spread the field with or without Burton on the field puts us in the position where we can dictate favorable matchups on any given play because we are 5-6 deep at WR with NFL talent. How many teams can effectively match up with that kind of depth consistently? And, frankly, if they can then they’re likely to leave themselves vulnerable to the run. Give me 6 DBs against a 4WR set all day long and let me run the ball against a 5 or 6 man box with Montgomery, Cohen or Davis. That’s a highly favorable matchup. Give me Cohen out of the backfield against a safety or LB every damn play if I can get it. If they roll both safeties down to stop the run against 4WR then we have 1 on 1s all over the secondary. That’s to our advantage too. 5 DBs now you probably have one of our slot WR against a LB or a safety. That should be to our advantage too. And don’t forget that even if they cover all of that and our receiving capable RBs our QB can and will make plays with his legs. None of that requires a TE. We couldn’t do any of this last year with Josh Bellamy in a role of consequence and a RB who couldn’t catch a cold. 

Having our TEs healthy gives us more options for creating mismatches in our favor depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing personnel, but it’s not the end all be all for success with the depth we have. It’s a concern, but I don’t think it’s nearly the concern some of you do. All of that also assumes we get exactly zero from Braunecker, Raymond, etc. in the event Shaheen and Burton are both out which I don’t think is a given either. I’ve been reading here for 4 months how Raymond is a legitimate prospect who should’ve been drafted. If that’s so and he can give anything in 2019 then the TE depth concerns are even smaller. 

[Superman(DH23)]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t disagree with this at all. My point is that the lack of TE depth can be largely if not wholly mitigated by depth at the more primary skill positions. Being able to spread the field with or without Burton on the field puts us in the position where we can dictate favorable matchups on any given play because we are 5-6 deep at WR with NFL talent. How many teams can effectively match up with that kind of depth consistently? And, frankly, if they can then they’re likely to leave themselves vulnerable to the run. Give me 6 DBs against a 4WR set all day long and let me run the ball against a 5 or 6 man box with Montgomery, Cohen or Davis. That’s a highly favorable matchup. Give me Cohen out of the backfield against a safety or LB every damn play if I can get it. If they roll both safeties down to stop the run against 4WR then we have 1 on 1s all over the secondary. That’s to our advantage too. 5 DBs now you probably have one of our slot WR against a LB or a safety. That should be to our advantage too. And don’t forget that even if they cover all of that and our receiving capable RBs our QB can and will make plays with his legs. None of that requires a TE. We couldn’t do any of this last year with Josh Bellamy in a role of consequence and a RB who couldn’t catch a cold. 

Having our TEs healthy gives us more options for creating mismatches in our favor depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing personnel, but it’s not the end all be all for success with the depth we have. It’s a concern, but I don’t think it’s nearly the concern some of you do. All of that also assumes we get exactly zero from Braunecker, Raymond, etc. in the event Shaheen and Burton are both out which I don’t think is a given either. I’ve been reading here for 4 months how Raymond is a legitimate prospect who should’ve been drafted. If that’s so and he can give anything in 2019 then the TE depth concerns are even smaller. 

Apparently Raymond sucks.  He has gotten 0 play.  However Ian Bunting seems like he might be something.

[dll2000]

TE is a concern.  

Vast majority of Nagy playbook features at least one TE.  

Shaheen and Burton hurt would be really bad.  If that were to happen they may have to find a veteran cut or make a trade.  

 You could see how run game suffered last year with no run blocking Y TE as well.  

Bunting hardly started in college in 5 years.  I wouldn't get your hopes up too high on him despite some nice practice plays here and there.

Poor Sowell in practice I watched he got one chance in end zone and because of pressure on MT had a tough ball to catch, he had to spin his body around and face other direction, but any NFL caliber TE would or should make the catch and he couldnt do it.  He looked really upset.  

https://texanswire.usatoday.com/2019/07/31/texans-te-kahale-warring-impresses-blocker/

Look at arms on that dude.  Shaheen would be his b.  Just sayin we could have got Hill later.  I dont like to dwell on draft picks missed and I know I just said no more Mahomes talk, but I get at least a year on a draft that just happened.