2019 WR Corps

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

The Packers have been exceptionally good at closing out close, one score games this year.  There's plenty of statistical evidence that shows that winning close games has a high degree of variance and teams are unlikely to maintain either a good or bad run for long.

Of course, but these are the same games the Packers used to lose.
Despite the shortcomings, Pettine's D has delivered more than one successful goal line stand and kept this team winning while the O figures it out
There are also stats that show when a team goes on a run, this is exactly how it looks.

 

1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

Simply put, winning with your QB throwing for 250 yards and 1 TD a game is not a winning strategy in 2019.

I go back and forth on that one
Because that's exactly what happened when the Packers went to Dallas and faced the number 7 defense on the road
( 238 yards and 0 TDs)

The thing is, Aaron Jones swiped those TDs from the Aaron of yesteryear. Packers have scored 34,35,34 in their last 3 trips to Jerry world.
In some cases, we just switched pockets from one Aaron to the other Aaron

There's a myriad of reasons for Aaron's lesser performances

We've discussed age, skill, new offense, new coach and focus on running the ball
There was some consternation in the offseason about having a run - focused offense with AR on the roster
Yet here we are and the Packers moved up from 32nd in attempts to middle of the road at around 18th.

Those are a lot of snaps that used to be throws
That means fewer reps overall, fewer reps with young WRs, fewer stats on Sundays.

But the Packers are winning anyways and the threat of Rodgers helps the run game and vice versa. Its what everybody has been clamoring for
And now and now that its finally happening...we're wondering why Rodgers is not delivering stats the way he was earlier ?
 

[Greg C.]

7 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

I understand the statistical issues inherent in removing only positive outliers from a data set, but that's not even my point.  

Yes, that is your point. Sheesh! It's the usual tactic for discrediting a player's performance. I think it's remarkable how Rodgers has embraced the running game and has been very happy to hand the ball off to Aaron Jones and let him score touchdowns. I'm glad he doesn't care about his stats as much as you guys do. 

[MrBobGray]

2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

But the Packers are winning anyways and the threat of Rodgers helps the run game and vice versa. Its what everybody has been clamoring for
And now and now that its finally happening...we're wondering why Rodgers is not delivering stats the way he was earlier ?
 

For me, it's because these two things are not a zero sum game.  If this was true, you'd expect his efficiency numbers to be excellent, even if his volume was down.  But they're not; his efficiency numbers are mediocre compared to both his career and the league as a whole.  And the issues is the run game isn't actually performing that well: the Packers are 19th in yards and 20th in YPC in the run game.  The fact that they've been better than the awful run games of the last years of the McCarthy area (and Aaron Jones being a legitimate superhuman in the redzone) are giving the impression the run game is more dangerous than it is.

To be clear, I don't think the sky is falling.  I think the offense is solid, as is the defense, and the team as a whole is playing with incredible energy.  But a solid team with good energy isn't a Super Bowl team unless they take that next step, which is all we're discussing here; where that next step could come from.  Personally speaking, of all the players on the team I feel like Rodgers is the best shot to elevate his performance, in part because his performances have been decidedly average for a decidedly non average talent.

EDIT: So I want to run back something I said here a step:

Quote

And the issues is the run game isn't actually performing that well: the Packers are 19th in yards and 20th in YPC in the run game.

A big part of this is how many carries have been in the redzone or from short yardage situations.  Aaron Jones being so money in the redzone means he's had a lot of successful short runs, and that does bring the numbers down.  I do think the run game is very good, "not actually performing that well" was an overstatement.

And I do agree that Rodgers is definitely losing TDs to Jones, and I respect him for being willing to just feed Jones in the red zone.  Lord knows Davante's gotta be feeling the pain of that a bit himself, but it's getting wins.

Edited November 22, 2019 by MrBobGray
I overstated things

[Shanedorf]

22 minutes ago, Greg C. said:

Yes, that is your point. Sheesh! It's the usual tactic for discrediting a player's performance. I think it's remarkable how Rodgers has embraced the running game and has been very happy to hand the ball off to Aaron Jones and let him score touchdowns. I'm glad he doesn't care about his stats as much as you guys do. 

Easy there... Don't look at it as an attack on Rodgers, instead they're just helping us understand what they see happening.
PackerRaymond has offered great insight too, taking a different view. Both are gifts that make this place better

Age, skill, new offense, running game focus, new HC etc all play a role and they aren't saying "AR sucks" , they are simply telling us what they see on film.

[Shanedorf]

6 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

If this was true, you'd expect his efficiency numbers to be excellent, even if his volume was down.  But they're not; his efficiency numbers are mediocre compared to both his career and the league as a whole.  And the issues is the run game isn't actually performing that well: the Packers are 19th in yards and 20th in YPC in the run game.

My expectations are lower than some, mainly because I'm giving plenty of slack to a 40 year old who has never been an HC before, a 36 year old who has to learn a new offense and a team that is used to relying on AR being God-like. We're 10 games and a 10 months into a new regime, that's not a recipe for Max efficiency. Even the game - day logistics of calling plays are a new challenge. The OL is learning a new scheme too, and there have been some significant efficiency-busting issues there, including pre-snap penalties and holding calls.

If we were facing a rival under the same conditions, we'd be talking about how long it takes time to assimilate all of this and that now is the best time to play them before they get their act together.  MLF's peers ( new NFL coaches) are stinking it up across the league - that's the norm. What this team is doing is abby normal. How are the Packers/Rodgers doing vs other teams that had regime change ?

Every one of the QBs in contention for MVP or other accolades are in the same offense, same HC, same OC as the year before.
Brady, Brees, Jackson, Wilson - all in the same system.

There was little chance for this team to come out of the blocks looking like the previous Ferrari, especially considering the strength of schedule
Rodgers is going to have to elevate his game, MLF too. No argument there.

But based on the results to date - that's not a bad bet in my view and the Packers are currently 5th in offensive DVOA, a respected measure of efficiency
So now I'm back to trying to assimilate these two disparate views: 

A: neither Rodgers nor the running game are playing efficiently
B: DVOA which says the Packers are more efficient on offense than all but 4 teams in the entire league

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff/2019

[Greg C.]

6 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Easy there... Don't look at it as an attack on Rodgers, instead they're just helping us understand what they see happening.
PackerRaymond has offered great insight too, taking a different view. Both are gifts that make this place better

Age, skill, new offense, running game focus, new HC etc all play a role and they aren't saying "AR sucks" , they are simply telling us what they see on film.

I stand by my point, which is that those stats were unconvincing. I think Aaron Rodgers is having a very good year--his best since 2014. 

[AlexGreen#20]

6 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

My expectations are lower than some, mainly because I'm giving plenty of slack to a 40 year old who has never been an HC before, a 36 year old who has to learn a new offense and a team that is used to relying on AR being God-like. We're 10 games and a 10 months into a new regime, that's not a recipe for Max efficiency. Even the game - day logistics of calling plays are a new challenge. The OL is learning a new scheme too, and there have been some significant efficiency-busting issues there, including pre-snap penalties and holding calls.

If we were facing a rival under the same conditions, we'd be talking about how long it takes time to assimilate all of this and that now is the best time to play them before they get their act together.  MLF's peers ( new NFL coaches) are stinking it up across the league - that's the norm. What this team is doing is abby normal. How are the Packers/Rodgers doing vs other teams that had regime change ?

Every one of the QBs in contention for MVP or other accolades are in the same offense, same HC, same OC as the year before.
Brady, Brees, Jackson, Wilson - all in the same system.

There was little chance for this team to come out of the blocks looking like the previous Ferrari, especially considering the strength of schedule
Rodgers is going to have to elevate his game, MLF too. No argument there.

But based on the results to date - that's not a bad bet in my view and the Packers are currently 5th in offensive DVOA, a respected measure of efficiency
So now I'm back to trying to assimilate these two disparate views: 

A: neither Rodgers nor the running game are playing efficiently
B: DVOA which says the Packers are more efficient on offense than all but 4 teams in the entire league

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff/2019

That 36 year old QB is taking home a ridiculous check to be struggling to kick it out of 2nd gear, and is having the same noticeable problems that he was having with the old offenses. The expectation isn't for him to be God-like, but the expectation is for him to crack the top 5 QBs this year. Holding the ball too long, mediocre ball placement, being unwilling to throw into tight windows, locking in on Davante almost exclusively, being a putz with getting the ball snapped on time, stop me if you've heard all this before, these aren't scheme adjustment problems, these are Aaron Rodgers problems.

The Offensive Line has been adjusting fine. They were the best unit in football through the first 6ish weeks of the year. It hasn't been quite as clean since, but this has been a kickass unit.

MLF's peers are stinking it up across the league because their rosters are garbage. This expectation that we should be evaluating LaFleur as a coach against other 1st year coaches is broken. Kitchens is the only one with a roster with a pulse, and his team has been beat to hell where as ours has been absolutely AMAZINGLY healthy so far.

Stop blaming the system for Rodgers. Stop blaming the schedule: 25th, 11th, 20th, 21st, 27th have been the Points allowed rankings of our opposition since the Cowboys game. 

The Packers have an incredible offensive DVOA because their redzone efficiency and turnover percentage has been absolutely incredible. 2nd in the league, converting 69% of trips into TDs. We've had 35 trips with 24 TDs and 2nd in the league with a TO% of only 5.6%.

The redzone thing is maybe the best thing LaFleur has going for him right now. Ever since the Eagles game, he's taken the ball out of Rodgers hands in the redzone with the exception of scheduled roll outs. Rodgers hasn't thrown a TD to a WR in the redzone since that game, and he's only thrown one to TEs. All the rest have been to RBs. Which if you think about it makes sense, what is Rodgers struggling with, throwing into tight windows, and ball placement, two things you need in the redzone the most.

The turnover thing is definitely a credit to Rodgers. He's not turning it over, which is great, but we're also still seeing a reluctance to take risks to keep the offense on track (19th in 3rd down conversion percentage) and a serious lack of YAC due to ball placement.  

 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, Greg C. said:

I stand by my point, which is that those stats were unconvincing. I think Aaron Rodgers is having a very good year--his best since 2014. 

If we change his pop passes that went for TDs into handoffs that went for TDs, he's having an almost identical year to last year. 

[Keg Man]

2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

That 36 year old QB is taking home a ridiculous check to be struggling to kick it out of 2nd gear, and is having the same noticeable problems that he was having with the old offenses. The expectation isn't for him to be God-like, but the expectation is for him to crack the top 5 QBs this year. Holding the ball too long, mediocre ball placement, being unwilling to throw into tight windows, locking in on Davante almost exclusively, being a putz with getting the ball snapped on time, stop me if you've heard all this before, these aren't scheme adjustment problems, these are Aaron Rodgers problems.

The Offensive Line has been adjusting fine. They were the best unit in football through the first 6ish weeks of the year. It hasn't been quite as clean since, but this has been a kickass unit.

MLF's peers are stinking it up across the league because their rosters are garbage. This expectation that we should be evaluating LaFleur as a coach against other 1st year coaches is broken. Kitchens is the only one with a roster with a pulse, and his team has been beat to hell where as ours has been absolutely AMAZINGLY healthy so far.

Stop blaming the system for Rodgers. Stop blaming the schedule: 25th, 11th, 20th, 21st, 27th have been the Points allowed rankings of our opposition since the Cowboys game. 

The Packers have an incredible offensive DVOA because their redzone efficiency and turnover percentage has been absolutely incredible. 2nd in the league, converting 69% of trips into TDs. We've had 35 trips with 24 TDs and 2nd in the league with a TO% of only 5.6%.

The redzone thing is maybe the best thing LaFleur has going for him right now. Ever since the Eagles game, he's taken the ball out of Rodgers hands in the redzone with the exception of scheduled roll outs. Rodgers hasn't thrown a TD to a WR in the redzone since that game, and he's only thrown one to TEs. All the rest have been to RBs. Which if you think about it makes sense, what is Rodgers struggling with, throwing into tight windows, and ball placement, two things you need in the redzone the most.

The turnover thing is definitely a credit to Rodgers. He's not turning it over, which is great, but we're also still seeing a reluctance to take risks to keep the offense on track (19th in 3rd down conversion percentage) and a serious lack of YAC due to ball placement.  

 

I agree with all.

We need Rodgers to be much better.

Sometimes, I think his holding the ball too long and going for big plays is him trying to live up to his contract.

Hoping for big things Sunday

[coachbuns]

3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

That 36 year old QB is taking home a ridiculous check to be struggling to kick it out of 2nd gear, and is having the same noticeable problems that he was having with the old offenses. The expectation isn't for him to be God-like, but the expectation is for him to crack the top 5 QBs this year. Holding the ball too long, mediocre ball placement, being unwilling to throw into tight windows, locking in on Davante almost exclusively, being a putz with getting the ball snapped on time, stop me if you've heard all this before, these aren't scheme adjustment problems, these are Aaron Rodgers problems.

The Offensive Line has been adjusting fine. They were the best unit in football through the first 6ish weeks of the year. It hasn't been quite as clean since, but this has been a kickass unit.

MLF's peers are stinking it up across the league because their rosters are garbage. This expectation that we should be evaluating LaFleur as a coach against other 1st year coaches is broken. Kitchens is the only one with a roster with a pulse, and his team has been beat to hell where as ours has been absolutely AMAZINGLY healthy so far.

Stop blaming the system for Rodgers. Stop blaming the schedule: 25th, 11th, 20th, 21st, 27th have been the Points allowed rankings of our opposition since the Cowboys game. 

The Packers have an incredible offensive DVOA because their redzone efficiency and turnover percentage has been absolutely incredible. 2nd in the league, converting 69% of trips into TDs. We've had 35 trips with 24 TDs and 2nd in the league with a TO% of only 5.6%.

The redzone thing is maybe the best thing LaFleur has going for him right now. Ever since the Eagles game, he's taken the ball out of Rodgers hands in the redzone with the exception of scheduled roll outs. Rodgers hasn't thrown a TD to a WR in the redzone since that game, and he's only thrown one to TEs. All the rest have been to RBs. Which if you think about it makes sense, what is Rodgers struggling with, throwing into tight windows, and ball placement, two things you need in the redzone the most.

The turnover thing is definitely a credit to Rodgers. He's not turning it over, which is great, but we're also still seeing a reluctance to take risks to keep the offense on track (19th in 3rd down conversion percentage) and a serious lack of YAC due to ball placement.  

 

Beating a dead horse … week after week after week.  We know Rodgers is making big money - most top notch qb's do.  We know you think he's not as good as he used to be.  He doesn't trust for whatever reason the young guys downfield to make the catch … it's that simple.  Not a damn thing you or I can do about it.  He doesn't read this forum to get it.      

[Shanedorf]

Let's do this:

We've all had the opportunity to state our cases and its clear there are differing POV's here

The Packers go on the road vs the # 2 defense (both points & yards) in the league on Sunday night.
That's a very tall task for a QB with so many issues that it takes up 50 pages just to cover them all
Here's your opportunity to tell us how you think AR will perform on Sunday night.
Let's see how we all do in predicting the future...

The floor is yours...and I'll offer mine after I hear from AG20, Mr.BobGray, Vegas492 and anybody else who'd like to toss in their 2 cents
Then we can revisit on Monday, should be a blast.
Closest stat line wins:  A pat on the back and more of the same
AG20 is already down for a road loss, but I'm more interested in your prediction of AR's performance for this effort

For reference : MVP candidate Russell Wilson was just in SF for a prime time game:
He put up 24-34 for 232 yds with 1 TD and 1 INT and a passer rating of 86.9  (SF defense averages a 72.3 rating in 2019)

[Dubz41]

22 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Let's do this:

We've all had the opportunity to state our cases and its clear there are differing POV's here

The Packers go on the road vs the # 2 defense (both points & yards) in the league on Sunday night.
That's a very tall task for a QB with so many issues that it takes up 50 pages just to cover them all
Here's your opportunity to tell us how you think AR will perform on Sunday night.
Let's see how we all do in predicting the future...

The floor is yours...and I'll offer mine after I hear from AG20, Mr.BobGray, Vegas492 and anybody else who'd like to toss in their 2 cents
Then we can revisit on Monday, should be a blast.
Closest stat line wins:  A pat on the back and more of the same
AG20 is already down for a road loss, but I'm more interested in your prediction of AR's performance for this effort

For reference : MVP candidate Russell Wilson was just in SF for a prime time game:
He put up 24-34 for 232 yds with 1 TD and 1 INT and a passer rating of 86.9  (SF defense averages a 72.3 rating in 2019)

Some dumbass has to go first.

28-36,  281 yards  3 TDs 0 Ints.  Sacked three times. Deep dive:  Adams comes of the TD schneid and snags two.  Sternberger gets his first.

We win, but Rodgers still disappointed and suggests we take deep shots more often.

[MrBobGray]

6 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

That 36 year old QB is taking home a ridiculous check to be struggling to kick it out of 2nd gear, and is having the same noticeable problems that he was having with the old offenses. The expectation isn't for him to be God-like, but the expectation is for him to crack the top 5 QBs this year. Holding the ball too long, mediocre ball placement, being unwilling to throw into tight windows, locking in on Davante almost exclusively, being a putz with getting the ball snapped on time, stop me if you've heard all this before, these aren't scheme adjustment problems, these are Aaron Rodgers problems.

The Offensive Line has been adjusting fine. They were the best unit in football through the first 6ish weeks of the year. It hasn't been quite as clean since, but this has been a kickass unit.

MLF's peers are stinking it up across the league because their rosters are garbage. This expectation that we should be evaluating LaFleur as a coach against other 1st year coaches is broken. Kitchens is the only one with a roster with a pulse, and his team has been beat to hell where as ours has been absolutely AMAZINGLY healthy so far.

Stop blaming the system for Rodgers. Stop blaming the schedule: 25th, 11th, 20th, 21st, 27th have been the Points allowed rankings of our opposition since the Cowboys game. 

The Packers have an incredible offensive DVOA because their redzone efficiency and turnover percentage has been absolutely incredible. 2nd in the league, converting 69% of trips into TDs. We've had 35 trips with 24 TDs and 2nd in the league with a TO% of only 5.6%.

The redzone thing is maybe the best thing LaFleur has going for him right now. Ever since the Eagles game, he's taken the ball out of Rodgers hands in the redzone with the exception of scheduled roll outs. Rodgers hasn't thrown a TD to a WR in the redzone since that game, and he's only thrown one to TEs. All the rest have been to RBs. Which if you think about it makes sense, what is Rodgers struggling with, throwing into tight windows, and ball placement, two things you need in the redzone the most.

The turnover thing is definitely a credit to Rodgers. He's not turning it over, which is great, but we're also still seeing a reluctance to take risks to keep the offense on track (19th in 3rd down conversion percentage) and a serious lack of YAC due to ball placement.  

 

I appreciate this post because it had a lot of the numbers and work I thought about putting together last night before I took some nyquil and melotonin and passed out at 8 PM.  

I was thinking about the lack of YAC from ball placement, and how many of those slip screens or one step throws to the X have gone for nothing because the receiver has to turn and come all the way back to the ball.  It's been a really consistent issue with Rodgers for years, and I suspect it's an issue with his mechanics when he's trying to push the ball quick.  Thing is, that kind of throw comes because you open your hips too much or too little and it brings your upper body into the wrong alignment as you finish the throwing motion.  If your feet are right, this shouldn't happen because you can only really open your hips to the degree your feet are spaced, unless you're literally trying to push it.  But Rodgers has taught himself to throw with his feet off the ground; he trusts his arm to make up for any issue with his lack of mechanical consistency in his lower body.  The issue on a quick throw like this is it means his hips will go wherever; unless he has unreal body discipline and can just turn in the air the exact right amount every time which isn't really feasible.  This used to work because he had absolutely legendary arm talent; he could have his body doing whatever the hell it wanted and his arm alone could mechanically make the throw necessary.  But you can see he doesn't have that anymore; if he doesn't step into throws they don't fly like they used to and his fast balls don't have close to the same zip.  So now his lower body isn't aligned right, and his arm doesn't have the power it used to so he has to really push it, and the result is the ball is going to go wherever his weird body alignment sends it.  I'd be willing to bet money if you looked at his super short area throws, he throws behind his receivers to the left and is too far in front of them to the right; this is because to throw left you have to really open your body up, and that'll carry Rodgers too far, while to the right he doesn't turn far enough.

Anyone want to do the work for me and see if I'm full of it?  Bueller?

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, MrBobGray said:

I appreciate this post because it had a lot of the numbers and work I thought about putting together last night before I took some nyquil and melotonin and passed out at 8 PM.  

I was thinking about the lack of YAC from ball placement, and how many of those slip screens or one step throws to the X have gone for nothing because the receiver has to turn and come all the way back to the ball.  It's been a really consistent issue with Rodgers for years, and I suspect it's an issue with his mechanics when he's trying to push the ball quick.  Thing is, that kind of throw comes because you open your hips too much or too little and it brings your upper body into the wrong alignment as you finish the throwing motion.  If your feet are right, this shouldn't happen because you can only really open your hips to the degree your feet are spaced, unless you're literally trying to push it.  But Rodgers has taught himself to throw with his feet off the ground; he trusts his arm to make up for any issue with his lack of mechanical consistency in his lower body.  The issue on a quick throw like this is it means his hips will go wherever; unless he has unreal body discipline and can just turn in the air the exact right amount every time which isn't really feasible.  This used to work because he had absolutely legendary arm talent; he could have his body doing whatever the hell it wanted and his arm alone could mechanically make the throw necessary.  But you can see he doesn't have that anymore; if he doesn't step into throws they don't fly like they used to and his fast balls don't have close to the same zip.  So now his lower body isn't aligned right, and his arm doesn't have the power it used to so he has to really push it, and the result is the ball is going to go wherever his weird body alignment sends it.  I'd be willing to bet money if you looked at his super short area throws, he throws behind his receivers to the left and is too far in front of them to the right; this is because to throw left you have to really open your body up, and that'll carry Rodgers too far, while to the right he doesn't turn far enough.

Anyone want to do the work for me and see if I'm full of it?  Bueller?

It's not even so much that he throws with his feet in the air. He only does that on the bubble screens really. He doesn't step towards where he's throwing. His left foot steps really wide on every throw. That's why he's throwing as he's leaning back on every throw. Hard to throw forward with velocity when you're leaning back, and you're going to miss to the left when you're a right handed QB leaning back.

[MrBobGray]

1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

It's not even so much that he throws with his feet in the air. He only does that on the bubble screens really. He doesn't step towards where he's throwing. His left foot steps really wide on every throw. That's why he's throwing as he's leaning back on every throw. Hard to throw forward with velocity when you're leaning back, and you're going to miss to the left when you're a right handed QB leaning back.

Yeah that tracks, I was kinda using his feet in the air for shorthand of "his feet are never set correctly".  However, I didn't even really think about the leaning back he does but you're 100% correct.  He leans back and falls away from damn near every throw.  Do you think he does this because he doesn't want to step into hits?  He definitely didn't use to do this consistently in the early McCarthy era, but I can't picture when it started.  I guess I assumed it was him protecting himself, but I don't really know.  Maybe he just needs to actually drill footwork for awhile.