If Dak gets 5 years 185 million Mahomes should get 6 years 240

[showtime]

1 minute ago, Steelersfan43 said:

It was the same thing when Roethlisberger was younger but we'll see if Dak will take the next step like Roethlisberger (32 TD in 2007) and Russell Wilson (34 TD in 2015) did in their 4th season.

Yea that's true.  He has the potential to be that good, but he actually has to do it.  I think the thing about Dak is that he has looked so bad at certain times and even I've criticized him very harshly for his play at times.  That kind of gives people reservation about how good he can actually be.

[evilpimp972]

 

21 minutes ago, showtime said:

I think Dak can be about as good as Russell Wilson in the future.  He has the potential to be that good.  Wentz is awesome, but the guy can't even stay healthy.  How useful is it to be a ceiling of an MVP of you can't play?

Russell had a great 4th season, without a dominant run game (Lynch was hurt, played 7 games, even though Rawls beasted that year), let's see if Dak can do it.

Which is why I'm not paying him until the end of the year.

Unless he does, all this Russell talk is crazy. Let me know when Russ had 3 all pro linemen....

[showtime]

Just now, evilpimp972 said:

 

Russell had a great 4th season, without a dominant run game (Lynch was hurt, played 7 games, even though Rawls beasted that year), let's see if Dak can do it.

Which is why I'm not paying him until the end of the year.

Unless he does, all this Russell talk is crazy. Let me know when Russ had 3 all pro linemen....

Nobody here is saying Dak is as good as Wilson or even in the same league as him.  Some of us are just saying he has the ability to potentially be that good in the future.  Of course he needs to go out and do it.  I was just saying that some of the same criticism that Dak is facing is the same for Wilson really early in his career - needs a great team around him, is in the perfect situation, anyone can win with that squad, etc.

And yea, Wilson never had an elite offensive line, but the team itself was elite.  I'm sure Dak would rather play QB for those Seahawks teams over having those all pro linemen.

[Steelersfan43]

4 minutes ago, evilpimp972 said:

 

Russell had a great 4th season, without a dominant run game (Lynch was hurt, played 7 games, even though Rawls beasted that year), let's see if Dak can do it.

Which is why I'm not paying him until the end of the year.

Unless he does, all this Russell talk is crazy. Let me know when Russ had 3 all pro linemen....

I do not think Dak will be as good as Wilson(And Wilson was better in his first 3 seasons than Dak was) ... Right now Dak is similar to Alex Smith ... But Wilson had his first big contract before his 4th season.

And yes if the Cowboys do not think he can take the next step, it's not going to be a bad idea for Jerry Jones to give Dak a big contract.

[evilpimp972]

23 minutes ago, showtime said:

Nobody here is saying Dak is as good as Wilson or even in the same league as him.  Some of us are just saying he has the ability to potentially be that good in the future.  Of course he needs to go out and do it.  I was just saying that some of the same criticism that Dak is facing is the same for Wilson really early in his career - needs a great team around him, is in the perfect situation, anyone can win with that squad, etc.

And yea, Wilson never had an elite offensive line, but the team itself was elite.  I'm sure Dak would rather play QB for those Seahawks teams over having those all pro linemen.

 

Ahah on point, I'd love to see Dak numbers behind that oline though. 

 

[Raves]

For those bringing up both Wilson and Big Ben as being similar examples, I think there are a few stats that show the difference between them:

Wilson

2012:  6.6 TD%, 7.9 Y/A, 8.1 AY/A, 12.4 Y/C

2013:  6.4 TD%, 8.2 Y/A, 8.5 AY/A, 13.1 Y/C

2014:  4.4 TD%, 7.7 Y/A, 7.9 AY/A, 12.2 Y/C

Big Ben:

2004: 5.8 TD%, 8.9 Y/A, 8.4 AY/A, 13.4 Y/C

2005: 6.3 TD%, 8.9 Y/A, 8.7 AY/A, 14.2 Y/C (If bold means led league then Big Ben led the league in all of these categories in 2005 according to PFR)

2006: 3.8 TD%, 7.5 Y/A, 6.1 AY/A, 12.5 Y/C (Not sure what happened to the Steelers in '06 but that was Big Bens worst year by far.)

Dak:

2016: 5.0 TD%, 8.0 Y/A, 8.6 AY/A, 11.8 Y/C

2017: 4.5TD%,, 6.8 Y/A, 6.5 AY/A, 10.8 Y/C

2018: 4.2 TD%, 7.4 Y/A, 7.5 AY/A, 10.9 Y/C 

 

I see those numbers as being showing playmaking ability, with their arms not going to get into rushing for these QBs as they are/were all capable of playmaking with their legs.  I think it's pretty obvious that Dak has been a model of consistency, but he doesn't/hasn't been able to take advantage of his passing opportunities as well as either of those two did.  All of the QBs I would consider "great" average over 5% of their throws going for TDs.  Since 2001, QBs  who have thrown over 400 passes and have a TD% > 5 for their careers are here. http://pfref.com/tiny/c9Uqo  For those that don't want to click the link it's:

1.  Mahomes

2.  Watson

3.  Rodgers

4.  Wilson

5.  P. Manning

6.  Romo

7. Baker

8.  Brady

9.  Brees

10.  Rivers

11. Sage Rosenfels?!?!?! 

12.  Goff

13.  Luck

14.  Big Ben

I mean outside of Rosenfels I don't think people are too surprised by the people on this list, maybe Goff.  But most of these players have been those argued at top 5-10 players for most of their careers, or at least being put into that discussion already.

Here is the list of players from 4.5-5.0  http://pfref.com/tiny/VyUes

1.  Kirk Cousins

2.  Andy Dalton

3.  Brett Favre

4.  Matt Ryan

5.  Billy Volek

6.  Carson WEntz

7.  Cam Newton

8.  Carson Palmer

9.  Jay Culter

10.  Kelly Holcomb

11.  Matt Moore

12.  Jameis WInston

13.  Eli Manning

14.  Donovan McNabb

15.  Dak Prescott

16.  Kurt Warner

The only real aberration on this list is Favre and Warner, and that's because since I did the cutoff at 2001 forward in careers, they were under 5.0, if you take it to their full careers both are 5.0 or higher on TD%.

Just I think this tier, minus Favre and Warner, is about where Dak belongs anyways, at least with what he's shown.  It's not a bad tier to be in, but it's not what you think of in regards to needing to be next man up in pay.  I don't even like that mentality.

[Steelersfan43]

15 minutes ago, Raves said:

For those bringing up both Wilson and Big Ben as being similar examples, I think there are a few stats that show the difference between them:

Wilson

2012:  6.6 TD%, 7.9 Y/A, 8.1 AY/A, 12.4 Y/C

2013:  6.4 TD%, 8.2 Y/A, 8.5 AY/A, 13.1 Y/C

2014:  4.4 TD%, 7.7 Y/A, 7.9 AY/A, 12.2 Y/C

Big Ben:

2004: 5.8 TD%, 8.9 Y/A, 8.4 AY/A, 13.4 Y/C

2005: 6.3 TD%, 8.9 Y/A, 8.7 AY/A, 14.2 Y/C (If bold means led league then Big Ben led the league in all of these categories in 2005 according to PFR)

2006: 3.8 TD%, 7.5 Y/A, 6.1 AY/A, 12.5 Y/C (Not sure what happened to the Steelers in '06 but that was Big Bens worst year by far.)

Dak:

2016: 5.0 TD%, 8.0 Y/A, 8.6 AY/A, 11.8 Y/C

2017: 4.5TD%,, 6.8 Y/A, 6.5 AY/A, 10.8 Y/C

2018: 4.2 TD%, 7.4 Y/A, 7.5 AY/A, 10.9 Y/C 

 

I see those numbers as being showing playmaking ability, with their arms not going to get into rushing for these QBs as they are/were all capable of playmaking with their legs.  I think it's pretty obvious that Dak has been a model of consistency, but he doesn't/hasn't been able to take advantage of his passing opportunities as well as either of those two did.  All of the QBs I would consider "great" average over 5% of their throws going for TDs.  Since 2001, QBs  who have thrown over 400 passes and have a TD% > 5 for their careers are here. http://pfref.com/tiny/c9Uqo  For those that don't want to click the link it's:

1.  Mahomes

2.  Watson

3.  Rodgers

4.  Wilson

5.  P. Manning

6.  Romo

7. Baker

8.  Brady

9.  Brees

10.  Rivers

11. Sage Rosenfels?!?!?! 

12.  Goff

13.  Luck

14.  Big Ben

I mean outside of Rosenfels I don't think people are too surprised by the people on this list, maybe Goff.  But most of these players have been those argued at top 5-10 players for most of their careers, or at least being put into that discussion already.

Here is the list of players from 4.5-5.0  http://pfref.com/tiny/VyUes

1.  Kirk Cousins

2.  Andy Dalton

3.  Brett Favre

4.  Matt Ryan

5.  Billy Volek

6.  Carson WEntz

7.  Cam Newton

8.  Carson Palmer

9.  Jay Culter

10.  Kelly Holcomb

11.  Matt Moore

12.  Jameis WInston

13.  Eli Manning

14.  Donovan McNabb

15.  Dak Prescott

16.  Kurt Warner

The only real aberration on this list is Favre and Warner, and that's because since I did the cutoff at 2001 forward in careers, they were under 5.0, if you take it to their full careers both are 5.0 or higher on TD%.

Just I think this tier, minus Favre and Warner, is about where Dak belongs anyways, at least with what he's shown.  It's not a bad tier to be in, but it's not what you think of in regards to needing to be next man up in pay.  I don't even like that mentality.

Ben Roethlisberger had a big motorcycle accident in June 2006 which was a big factor in his horrible season.Ben had also an emergency appendectomy before the season.

[Raves]

55 minutes ago, Steelersfan43 said:

Ben Roethlisberger had a big motorcycle accident in June 2006 which was a big factor in his horrible season.Ben had also an emergency appendectomy before the season.

Oh yeah,I remember that.  Explains why 2006 was so bad for him and why that season is such an outlier.  Either way my point still stands.  Ben showed that in limited attempts he got the ball in the end zone and gained a lot of yards.  Dak hasn't done that at the same level of Wilson or Ben.

That doesn't mean Dak can't do it, but you don't pay him the money of a player that can when he hasn't shown

[SkippyX]

There was a classic slobber piece on CBS Sports Monday about how Dak has better stats across the board compared to Wentz.

This only works if you count totals instead of per game and it relies almost entirely on their rookie seasons..

Its like looking at Rodgers and Flacco in 08 and 09 and deciding they are both worth max contracts.*

One of them had more team success but the other had a season playing at an MVP level.

  *Not a perfect comparison since Dak will never approach 11 TDs and 0 picks in a playoff run, but I think you get the idea.

 

Wentz 2018 -2019 vs Dak 2018 - 2019

• Passer Rating: 102.0 vs 91.9
• Record 16-8(.667)  vs 19-13(.594)  1-1 (.500)
• Yards per game passing:  265 vs 225
• Yards per attempt: 7.6 vs 7.1
• TD passes per game:  2.25 to 1.38
• Interceptions:   14 in 24 (.583) vs 21 in 32 (.656)
• TD to INT ratio:  3.86 to 1 vs 2.10 to 1
• QBR numbers: 77.2 and 64.9 vs 69.5 and 58.6
• Completion Percentage:  64.7  vs 65.4
• Sack Percentage:  6.6% vs 8.0% (including an astronomical 9.6% in 2018)
• How about 4th quarter comebacks (Wentz's weakness)?  Wentz has 3 in 24 games. Dak has 3 in 32 games.
• But Dak runs you say?  16.3 yards per game vs 20.7 yards per game
  • Dak does actually score 6 rushing TDs a year so there is that
    • Unless you are named Cam Newton that almost never ages well on a QB

 

Dak had a perfect storm as a rookie of a fantastic running game and an incredible O-line in great health (the 5 lineman made 73 of 80 starts).

• Leary and Free left, Smith's back may never be 100% again, and Frederick had his GBS scare.

You pay 30+ to a QB who elevates their team, not to a QB who needs his team to elevate him.

The risks in paying Wentz are his health concerns. The risk in paying Dak is that he is not a very good QB.

[SkippyX]

Here is a HUGE factor that is often overlooked. Its the 2015 Cowboys bad QBs elevating the perception of Dak by him being compared to them.

• Matt Cassel was 33 and 5 years removed from success. He was traded to the Cowboys in-season on September 22nd.
  • He was starting games a month after joining the team.
    • This is not the 26 or 28 year old guy who knew the New England or KC systems well through multiple years of training camps and film study.
• Kellen Moore had never started before, was in his first year in Dallas as the #3 guy.
• Brandon Weeden was 6-19 as a starter before 2015.

You don't pay someone 30 million+ a year because he is several steps up from that slop.

• BTW, Romo was 2-0 with a rating just under 100 in 2015 before he got hurt. (he did struggle in the 2 games he tried to play after the injury)

Edited August 14, 2019 by SkippyX

[Raves]

3 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Here is a HUGE factor that is often overlooked. Its the 2015 Cowboys bad QBs elevating the perception of Dak by him being compared to them.

• Matt Cassel was 33 and 5 years removed from success. He was traded to the Cowboys in-season on September 22nd.
  • He was starting games a month after joining the team.
    • This is not the 26 or 28 year old guy who knew the New England or KC systems well through multiple years of training camps and film study.
• Kellen Moore had never started before, was in his first year in Dallas as the #3 guy.
• Brandon Weeden was 6-19 as a starter before 2015.

You don't pay someone 30 million+ a year because he is several steps up from that slop.

• BTW, Romo was 2-0 with a rating just under 100 in 2015 before he got hurt. (he did struggle in the 2 games he tried to play after the injury)

So do you pay Dak 30+ mil now, or play out the season and try to pick-up someone like Jameis for 12-15 mil and hope to turn around a player with off-field issues like the 'Boys have done in the past?  I'd probably take the cheaper Winston myself.

[Danger]

2 minutes ago, Raves said:

So do you pay Dak 30+ mil now, or play out the season and try to pick-up someone like Jameis for 12-15 mil and hope to turn around a player with off-field issues like the 'Boys have done in the past?  I'd probably take the cheaper Winston myself.

You don't pay Dak now, you pay him (or don't) immediately after they exit stage left, whether that be in the regular season or playoffs. You'll have more time to affirm or deny that he is what he's asking for. Just make sure you get it done before Goff. 

[ET80]

36 minutes ago, Raves said:

So do you pay Dak 30+ mil now, or play out the season and try to pick-up someone like Jameis for 12-15 mil and hope to turn around a player with off-field issues like the 'Boys have done in the past?  I'd probably take the cheaper Winston myself.

You could avoid that and go with Mariota - about as questionable on the field, but a really good person off the field.

[showtime]

You really have to look at this from Dak's perspective.  He probably feels he's a better QB than Carson Wentz, or worst case scenario they're pretty similar.  They were both drafted the same year.  The Eagles have already extended Wentz, even though he has never played in a playoff game and has an injury history.  So if you're looking at this from Dak's perspective - he's probably wondering why his situation is not similar.  It's a fair position for him to take.  Both Wentz and Dak have fairly similar stats throughout their careers.  Granted, Dak has played more games to accumulate his stats, but at least he can actually play games.

[Rtnldave]

6 hours ago, Steelersfan43 said:

It depends how good you think Alex Smith is

Alex Smith had a similar resume between 2015 to 2017.

Well, it's the extent of his career to date. Is everyone speculating about his future and comparison to Alex Smith?