Raves Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 @Matts4313 A lot of good information there. I still think a stat that I think is a better at identifying "elite" QBs in the current era is > 5.0 TD%. It shows that whether they have a lot of opportunities to throw the ball or not, when they do throw, they score TDs at an elite level. Dak currently misses that criteria, though he did have a year with that criteria. The other QBs have had multiple years/career averages to do so. Baker only has one year of it though so he could take the same dip as Dak though which is perfectly fair to consider as well. I think it would be pretty had for Mahomes to drop though, and Watson has done it for his entire career IIRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Just now, Yin-Yang said: You’re not getting it. The post you quoted has nothing to do with Prescott. It has to do with GWDs. You didn’t invalidate a thing I said because you think I’m talking about Dak. I am getting it broseph. You said "GWD dont matter because X, Y, Z" I pointed out that Dak, specifically Dak, refutes your claims for why a GWD is a silly stat. He is best in the NFL at GWD. He does not have very many opportunities. (8th fewest) So there for he has a super high % of success. Additionally, he he is good in close or tied 4th quarter games, which backs up the claim that he is neither putting the team into them often or because of his play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Raves said: "elite" QBs in the current era is > 5.0 TD% Do you have any resource as to why this stat is important? Because every analytical site out there will tell you the #1 most important QB stat is ANY/A (or AY/A). It is the only stat highly correlated with effective QB play and winning. Edit to add => TD% is going to be highly scheme dependent. Edited August 16, 2019 by Matts4313 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: I am getting it broseph. You said "GWD dont matter because X, Y, Z" I pointed out that Dak, specifically Dak, refutes your claims for why a GWD is a silly stat. He is best in the NFL at GWD. He does not have very many opportunities. (8th fewest) So there for he has a super high % of success. Additionally, he he is good in close or tied 4th quarter games, which backs up the claim that he is neither putting the team into them often or because of his play. Yes, that might work for him. But it does not apply to all of those QBs who have multiple GWDs. Dak does not refute the idea that GWDs are a poor metric to measure how much weight a QB carries. You adding in other stats to go along with GWDs in a single player’s situation, does not do that. And it does not refute that GWDs are tracked oddly (having a GWD with 14:59 left in the quarter, doesn’t track the field, doesn’t have time constraints, counts for a QB even if the kicker or runner scores, etc). I’m discussing the statistic and you’re still pumping your guy, relax. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: 11 hours ago, Matts4313 said: Definitive Guide to Defending Dak to the Haters Step 1 - Show that he is pretty good: Daks league-wide rankings in 2016-18, 32 games played minimum 8th in passer rating 11th in ANY/A 6th in CMP% 5th in INTs 7th in combined TDs 2nd in wins 1st in GWD PFR Step 2 - Refute "the best supporting cast ever" argument: Starting Falcons '17 through 2018 the pressure rate on Dak DOUBLED F.O. ranked us the #28 worst pass blocking OL in 2018 PFF ranked us #22 pass blocking OL in 2018, but the 27th worst at giving up sacks/pressures NFL.com rated our WR's DEAD LAST at getting open in 2018, excluding Amari Cooper Zeke was #22 in facing a stacked box (25% of the time). The notion that "Dak has it easy because defenses focus on Zeke" is verifiable false. Step 3 - Show how the above affected him: Source 1 Source 2 Step 4 - If they bring up Romo: Prescott’s stats 2016-18: 96 passer rating, 66.1% completion percentage, 67 passing touchdowns, 7.52 adjusted yards per attempt Tony Romo’s stats 2010-12: 95.7 passer rating, 66.4% completion percentage, 70 passing touchdowns, 7.57 adjusted yards per attempt Source Step 5 - Accolades: Rookie of the Year (2016) 32-16 regular season record 1-2 playoff record Been to Divisional Round twice 2 NFC East titles 2-Time Pro Bowler First player in NFL history with 20+ passing TDs & 5+ rushing TDs in each of his first 3 seasons 7th most wins all time for a 3rd year QB 5th most TDs all time for a 3rd year QB Highest passer rating when tied in the 4th/overtime in the past 25 years Most game winning drives since entering the league on the 8th fewest opportunities Step 6 - the Meme: Explain that you know he isnt worth $40m/yr. Thats not the point. The point is that he is a franchise QB and deserves a contract that pays him as such. Here ya go: And as an added Bonus: Highest passer rating since 1994 when tied in the 4th/OT (minimum 50 pass attempts): Because this got paged, I want to list the QBs that Dak keeps company with here: Luck Manning Wilson Ryan Cousins Romo Rodgers Gannon Testeverde ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ None of those QBs are bad. A couple of them are just "decent". Most of them (especially since Rodgers, Wilson are on multiple list with Dak) are very good to Elite/HOF. Yet everyone claims Dak Sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKRNA Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 25 minutes ago, Raves said: Where is this found at? You said it, but I do like to verify sources, no offense. Sure, Pro Football Reference. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKRNA Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 49 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: No it isn’t. GWDs are an extremely flawed statistic in and of itself, I don’t even know why it’s tracked. It’s incredibly reliant on a string of things occurring, and even then, it’s tracked weirdly. For instance, you can have a GWD on the first play of the 4th quarter and that will count as a GWD on your ledger. That includes kickers taking the league or running backs slamming the ball into the end zone. To even get to that point, you have to be in a tight game - which right off the bat, penalizes teams that are dominant against their opponents. QB1 might have 14 GWDs compared to QB2’s 3 GWDs, but that could be because QB2 puts his team up by 4 TDs before the 4th quarter. QBs/offenses that maintain a lead can’t accumulate GWDs. A GWD%, that measures how often a QB can successfully lead the offense to score & take the league on a success/opportunity basis, would be much more telling. But even then, that doesn’t describe how much weight a QB is pulling. It’s more of a measurement of how successful an offense can be in tight situations (which can still be misleading, looking at how long the field is they have to travel, and at what point in the 4th did the lead get taken). Sure it's flawed. Every stat taken in a vacuum is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 minute ago, AKRNA said: Sure it's flawed. Every stat taken in a vacuum is. That’s true, but this is much more situational and dependent on other factors than say, TD% or passer rating. You’re taking all of those other factors that you have to consider with passing (offense, coach, other players, etc.) and adding in things like the score at a specific point in the game, other players scoring the ball, the defense keeping a lead, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKRNA Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: That’s true, but this is much more situational and dependent on other factors than say, TD% or passer rating. You’re taking all of those other factors that you have to consider with passing (offense, coach, other players, etc.) and adding in things like the score at a specific point in the game, other players scoring the ball, the defense keeping a lead, etc. I'm not really disagreeing but when a player has 14 GWD in 3 years there's probably some legitimacy there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biggio7 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Nobody is worth that money but it is going to happen eventually because of all the money the teams/sports make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, AKRNA said: I'm not really disagreeing but when a player has 14 GWD in 3 years there's probably some legitimacy there. Once again that statistic completely lacks context. 2/3 of the time those "GWD" were by 3 points or fewer. Meaning there was no pressure on him really. And that just means any deficit within the 4th quarter no matter how far into the 4th quarter. When Dak was down by 4 or more and NEEDED a TD to tie or go ahead he was actually really bad with a Passer Rating somewhere in the 70's. This only accounted for either 1 or 2 of those 14 "GWD" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, AKRNA said: I'm not really disagreeing but when a player has 14 GWD in 3 years there's probably some legitimacy there. No doubt. I think Dak is a good QB under pressure. I just don’t think GWDs are a good measure of that because of the natural small sample size, lack of opportunity in the competition, and how poorly it’s recorded. Also don’t think it’s very indicative of how much weight a QB carries, not sure how they correlate. A GWD on the stat sheet is not proof that the QB carried the team, merely that the situation allowed for the offense to take the lead in the 4th (or OT) and they did so (and the defense didn’t blow it). It’s a stat that requires a lot more context, so looking at it by itself is even less telling than looking at yards or TDs on their own. Edited August 16, 2019 by Yin-Yang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raves Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 24 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Do you have any resource as to why this stat is important? Because every analytical site out there will tell you the #1 most important QB stat is ANY/A (or AY/A). It is the only stat highly correlated with effective QB play and winning. Edit to add => TD% is going to be highly scheme dependent. I said that was what I consider, and winning has a lot more than a QBs ANY/A (AY/A) etc, such as actually having a defense. So if you want to use ANY/A as your baseline, what do you think would be a good number for elite QBs? I'll run through breakpoints. Criteria set for all: Pass Attempts > 300, Career totals from 2001 -> Present ANY/A > 7.0: http://pfref.com/tiny/1I4mw 1. Patty Mahomes 2. Petyon Manning 3 Aaron Rodgers 4. Tom Brady 5. Drew Brees 6. Jimmy G 7. Tony Romo ANY/A > 6.90: http://pfref.com/tiny/g3NgH 8. Phillip Rivers 9. Deshaun Watson 10. Russel Wilson ANY/A > 6.85: http://pfref.com/tiny/G4pIq 11. Jared Goff ANY/A > 6.80: http://pfref.com/tiny/jMsVd 12. Matt Ryan ANY/A > 6.75: http://pfref.com/tiny/NRVhM 13. Baker Mayfield ANY/A > 6.70: http://pfref.com/tiny/XaYBH 14. Big Ben ANY/A > 6.65: http://pfref.com/tiny/aHQBZ 15. Kirk Cousins ANY/A > 6.55: http://pfref.com/tiny/2C3CZ 16. Dak Prescott Finally got to Prescott. So where do we draw the line in ANY/A for Elite QBs? And also although Wentz is on this list, I'll give you that one, Both Baker and Watson are on this list so would still be better than Prescott. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Raves said: I said that was what I consider, and winning has a lot more than a QBs ANY/A (AY/A) etc, such as actually having a defense. So if you want to use ANY/A as your baseline, what do you think would be a good number for elite QBs? I'll run through breakpoints. Criteria set for all: Pass Attempts > 300, Career totals from 2001 -> Present ANY/A > 7.0: http://pfref.com/tiny/1I4mw 1. Patty Mahomes 2. Petyon Manning 3 Aaron Rodgers 4. Tom Brady 5. Drew Brees 6. Jimmy G 7. Tony Romo ANY/A > 6.90: http://pfref.com/tiny/g3NgH 8. Phillip Rivers 9. Deshaun Watson 10. Russel Wilson ANY/A > 6.85: http://pfref.com/tiny/G4pIq 11. Jared Goff ANY/A > 6.80: http://pfref.com/tiny/jMsVd 12. Matt Ryan ANY/A > 6.75: http://pfref.com/tiny/NRVhM 13. Baker Mayfield ANY/A > 6.70: http://pfref.com/tiny/XaYBH 14. Big Ben ANY/A > 6.65: http://pfref.com/tiny/aHQBZ 15. Kirk Cousins ANY/A > 6.55: http://pfref.com/tiny/2C3CZ 16. Dak Prescott Finally got to Prescott. So where do we draw the line in ANY/A for Elite QBs? And also although Wentz is on this list, I'll give you that one, Both Baker and Watson are on this list so would still be better than Prescott. You are giving mixed signals here. Are you asking for career or for a single season? Most of those are career guys, but you set the limit at 300 passes.... Which is just 1 season. Career I would say in the 6.75-7+ range. For a single season it would have to be closer to 7.5-8+. FTR - Dak was 7.86 his rookie year, much higher than some of these 1 year-ish QBs (Mayfield, Watson, Jimmy G). Also - Do you know why I use ANY/A? The significance of it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrissooner49er Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 12 hours ago, BleedTheClock said: Man no wonder people hate the Cowboys. Yep, in the running for most arrogant and uninformed fan base in the NFL. Believe me, I see/hear it often here in Sooner country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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