Report - Dak Seeking 40m Per Year Deal

[evilpimp972]

Ahah, Dak got an MVP vote so he was elite, but Wentz was in the MVP campaign for a whole season, does that him more elite than Dak or what? 

[Matts4313]

11 minutes ago, evilpimp972 said:

Ahah, Dak got an MVP vote so he was elite, but Wentz was in the MVP campaign for a whole season, does that him more elite than Dak or what? 

Wentz's progression is a little different:

Mediocre Rookie => INSANE 9 game stretch => Borderline top 10 

Injuries sprinkled in and Foles casting a shadow. Additionally, you can make the supporting cast elevating him argument ("best roster in the NFL" claim like 3 years in a row).

Also, IIRC, he was the #1 QB at throwing between 5 yards to behind the LOS in the NFL. Check Down Carson. 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Matts4313

[evilpimp972]

1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

Wentz's progression is a little different:

Mediocre Rookie => INSANE 9 game stretch => Borderline top 10 

Injuries sprinkled in and lack of wins being his biggest knock. 

Also, IIRC, he was the #1 QB at throwing between 5 yards to behind the LOS in the NFL. Check Down Carson. 

Lol anyway, let's not do Dak vs Wentz, after all, Derek Carr was a MVP candidate too, so that does make him elite.

[BleedTheClock]

Man no wonder people hate the Cowboys. 

[Art_Vandalay]

9 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

#14 player in the entire NFL. #5 QB.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Top_100_Players_of_2017

Carson missed about half the games last year and played with a broken back and players still voted him higher than Dak... lol

[Soko]

7 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

For his 1st *25* games he put up over a 100 QB rating. For the past *13* games, he put up over a 100 QB rating. For his *3* playoff games, he has put up a near 100 QB rating. Thats 41 games he has been near ~top 10ish. 

He has 1 terrible 10 game stretch when the entire team collapsed, himself included. The OL was rated anywhere between bottom 4-10 in passblocking depending whose analytics you trust. The WR core was rated dead last in the NFL in getting open. That singular 10 game stretch Dak looked like complete and total crap. Dak himself readily admitted he got the yips and had to work through it. Unfortunately those 10 games span the end of '17 to the start of '18. Which means if you slice is career up the traditional way (by year) he doesnt look very good. But if you put context on it, the story changes.

So your contention is that Dak has “elite stretches” for 80%+ of his career and that only dips when his supporting cast is amongst the worst in the league? 

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He was top 3 efficiency QB in 16. 

He was top 10 in '17 until the Falcons game (where he died). 

He was top 10 in '18 after we acquired 1 credible passing target (cooper).

Elite. Trash. Back to top 10 statistically. 

I laid out how he landed in regards to the top-10 these past 3 years. He doesn’t stack up, aside from maybe 16’, but even then it’s efficiency without the bulk. 

7 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Specifically to address this again outside of my larger post:

Fact 1: regarding the 40 games of top 10 stats:

Fact 2: If you look over 2016-2018 cumulatively (32 game min. played; accounting for the injury prone Wentz),

Dak is:

#8 in rating

#11 in ANY/A

#6 in CMP%

#5 in INTs

#7 in combined TDs

#2 in wins

#1 in GWD.

That is pretty much top 10 in all the stats that matter (efficiency, not bulk. Bulk is a stupid measurement for the ill-informed.)

How convenient, lol. Those are the stats that matter. Not the ones Dak isn’t good in.

Yet in the other thread, comparing Dak to Wentz, you highlight Dak’s bulk over Wentz’. Also convenient how Wentz’ has a star studded cast, but the only season that Dak was worth his weight in silver was when the OL was intact, Zeke lit the league up, and the receivers were pretty solid. And apparently, Dak’s MVP vote is a positive, but Wentz’ MVP votes in a more recent season somehow mean less. 

Quote

So its neither disingenuous nor wrong. You are either ignorant to the facts or are purposely being obtuse.

If you had read any of the further comments you should have been able to easily understand I said he had elite stretches of play, not that he was an elite QB. 

It’s incredibly disingenuous because you try to frame it a specific way (elite rookie season, elite production in efficiency only, cherry picking statistics, cutting out bad games, etc.) by omitting or misrepresenting information.

I don’t have a desire to continue entering Dak threads with you other than to revel in exactly how crazy your takes get. 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Yin-Yang

[Matts4313]

39 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

Carson missed about half the games last year and played with a broken back and players still voted him higher than Dak... lol

Wentz was 96. Dak was "just missed". They were probably like 10-15 players apart.  For some reason Wentz gets the benefit of the doubt that he wouldnt have been terrible in those games he missed. 

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

So your contention is that Dak has “elite stretches” for 80%+ of his career and that only dips when his supporting cast is amongst the worst in the league? 

Elite stretches is to far. Top 10 stretches is more accurate. The only time he was elite was his rookie season.

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I laid out how he landed in regards to the top-10 these past 3 years. He doesn’t stack up, aside from maybe 16’, but even then it’s efficiency without the bulk. 

Efficiency is the only thing that matters. And I have already explained why his career doesnt fit nicely in the year to year that is traditional. Dak regressed immensely post Falcons '17. He was really bad. The team was also terrible, but so was he. 

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

How convenient, lol. Those are the stats that matter. Not the ones Dak isn’t good in.

ANY/A is the single most important QB stat (or Adujusted Yards if you cant get ANY/A). Passer rating is a distant 2nd. The other are just some highlighted accomplishments. 

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Yet in the other thread, comparing Dak to Wentz, you highlight Dak’s bulk over Wentz’. Also convenient how Wentz’ has a star studded cast, but the only season that Dak was worth his weight in silver was when the OL was intact, Zeke lit the league up, and the receivers were pretty solid.

I might post them, but youve never seen me emphasize thats what makes a QB important. So dont create a strawman.

And you are right - Dak was heavily helped by his cast in year 1. He was hurt by them years 2, 3. I never said different. All QBs are effected by their cast, some more than others.

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

It’s incredibly disingenuous because you try to frame it a specific way (elite rookie season, elite production in efficiency only, cherry picking statistics, cutting out bad games, etc.) 

I don’t have a desire to continue entering Dak threads with you other than to revel in exactly how crazy your takes get. 

Cool. I was simply giving you context. Now you have it. 

[Matts4313]

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/dak-prescott-what-a-35-million-deal-may-look-like/

Quote

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz recently signed a four-year extension worth $128 million. That works out to $32 million per year in new money. And Wentz has had season-ending injuries in each of the past two seasons. Prescott has had a clean bill of health throughout his career. He has not missed a game since taking over for an injured Tony Romo during the 2016 preseason. That stat alone will likely help Prescott’s annual value push higher and part of why he likely rejected Dallas’ recent offer of $30 million per year, as reported by NFL Network’s Jane Slater.

So let’s dive into Wentz’s new contract, courtesy of Over the Cap, to gather his latest numbers. We’ll then use that as a baseline as to what a new contract for Prescott could look like. (The Nosebleed Seats podcast also talked about the looming showdown between Dak Prescott and the Cowboys and his new contract, and is worth a listen.)

This article goes on to show a 5 year extension that never exceeds 14% of allotted cap space. I really like the structure of the deal.

 

Edit to add:

Edited August 16, 2019 by Matts4313

[SweetFancyMoses]

19 hours ago, Eagles $5$ said:

If he wins the SB, Jerry will give him $50m a year lol.

Jerry would buy Dak his own gloryhole in the vip room at the Bunny Ranch. It's only been a quarter century since the Cowboys won or even participated in a Superbowl. 

[Steelersfan43]

 

 

 

[SweetFancyMoses]

2 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

So your contention is that Dak has “elite stretches” for 80%+ of his career and that only dips when his supporting cast is amongst the worst in the league? 

I laid out how he landed in regards to the top-10 these past 3 years. He doesn’t stack up, aside from maybe 16’, but even then it’s efficiency without the bulk. 

How convenient, lol. Those are the stats that matter. Not the ones Dak isn’t good in.

Yet in the other thread, comparing Dak to Wentz, you highlight Dak’s bulk over Wentz’. Also convenient how Wentz’ has a star studded cast, but the only season that Dak was worth his weight in silver was when the OL was intact, Zeke lit the league up, and the receivers were pretty solid. And apparently, Dak’s MVP vote is a positive, but Wentz’ MVP votes in a more recent season somehow mean less. 

It’s incredibly disingenuous because you try to frame it a specific way (elite rookie season, elite production in efficiency only, cherry picking statistics, cutting out bad games, etc.) by omitting or misrepresenting information.

I don’t have a desire to continue entering Dak threads with you other than to revel in exactly how crazy your takes get. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Dak is bottom third when it comes to DVOA and DYAR.    It he got $25 mil per year with incentives to a possible $35 mil per year,  I would be ok with that. 

[Soko]

30 minutes ago, SweetFancyMoses said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Dak is bottom third when it comes to DVOA and DYAR.    It he got $25 mil per year with incentives to a possible $35 mil per year,  I would be ok with that. 

Dak’s value is actually pretty high, IMO. He’s the “next man up” contractually, he’s shown to be a good locker room guy, has proven to be durable, he protects the ball, and has actually been pretty consistent for the most part. A reliable but maybe unspectacular QB isn’t easy to come by, and thanks to the Flaccos, Staffords, Cousins, Daltons, and Tannehills of the world - they get paid pretty well. 

$40M is absurd, but Dak is deserving of a hefty contract, especially since he actually still has some upside (IMO). 

[Raves]

20 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Dak’s value is actually pretty high, IMO. He’s the “next man up” contractually, he’s shown to be a good locker room guy, has proven to be durable, he protects the ball, and has actually been pretty consistent for the most part. A reliable but maybe unspectacular QB isn’t easy to come by, and thanks to the Flaccos, Staffords, Cousins, Daltons, and Tannehills of the world - they get paid pretty well. 

$40M is absurd, but Dak is deserving of a hefty contract, especially since he actually still has some upside (IMO). 

And that's why you pay him the $30M the Cowboys offered him.  It's overpay, but with the way the market has worked the past few years it's a reasonable enough.

[AKRNA]

On 8/15/2019 at 8:00 AM, Raves said:

Read above.  I'm all good for players getting their money and not taking discounts if they don't want to, but I do think players should get paid what they are worth in comparison to the market.  5 of those players are/were the top of their position or unquestionably in the top tier of their position.  Wentz is overpaid, at least based on what we know so far of him, but his is at least slightly justified as he's shown the ability to be a top tier QB in the NFL and the Eagles are banking on him continuing to play at that level while also staying healthy.  Not a great bet but understandable and one I wouldn't have done until after this year where he showed he could stay healthy and continue to play at that level.

Dak has shown to be a very efficient, but not top tier QB.  I don't think Dak could carry a team with problems in others areas to the playoffs like I think Rivers, Brees, Brady, Rodger, Mahomes, Big Ben, Luck, and Wilson can/could.  I have more faith in Watson and Baker being those players.

So kudos to athletes that decide to get paid instead of taking a discount, but that also doesn't mean that a team should overpay for a player that wants to get paid and hurt the chances of what all sports teams primary goal is, to win a championship.  Paying Dak more than he's worth will hurt the Cowboys chances of fulfilling that goal as he's not one of those top tier guys, or at least he hasn't shown it YET.  Let him bet on himself this year.  If he puts up the same type of year as he has, then offer him the $30 mil again, as unfortunately that's the current going rate of a QB of that caliber.  If he takes the next step pay the man the money he deserves as you can afford to skimp elsewhere because of what he brings.  But don't just pay a guy top dollar because they are "next up."

Whats surprising is that Dak has more game winning drives in the last three years than any of the QB's you mentioned. I was pretty surprised but it's true. 14 GWD in his first three years.

Thats almost the definition of carrying a team.

[Soko]

14 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Whats surprising is that Dak has more game winning drives in the last three years than any of the QB's you mentioned. I was pretty surprised but it's true. 14 GWD in his first three years.

Thats almost the definition of carrying a team.

No it isn’t. 

GWDs are an extremely flawed statistic in and of itself, I don’t even know why it’s tracked. It’s incredibly reliant on a string of things occurring, and even then, it’s tracked weirdly. For instance, you can have a GWD on the first play of the 4th quarter and that will count as a GWD on your ledger. That includes kickers taking the league or running backs slamming the ball into the end zone.

 To even get to that point, you have to be in a tight game - which right off the bat, penalizes teams that are dominant against their opponents. QB1 might have 14 GWDs compared to QB2’s 3 GWDs, but that could be because QB2 puts his team up by 4 TDs before the 4th quarter. QBs/offenses that maintain a lead can’t accumulate GWDs.

A GWD%, that measures how often a QB can successfully lead the offense to score & take the league on a success/opportunity basis, would be much more telling. But even then, that doesn’t describe how much weight a QB is pulling. It’s more of a measurement of how successful an offense can be in tight situations (which can still be misleading, looking at how long the field is they have to travel, and at what point in the 4th did the lead get taken).

Edited August 16, 2019 by Yin-Yang