2020 Draft thread

[offbyone]

4 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

This list is ... interesting. Sims? Love? C'mon. Peterson is well past his prime of being an all-pro. I don't think most of those other guys have done anything close enough to be considered for all-pro status. 

 

4 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

I'm not going to count a special teamer there.  

Peterson is past his prime.  Guice and Love have yet to prove anything at this level.  Sims?  LOL.  Maybe McLaurin gets there, but maybe not.  Haskins?  Being an All-Pro QB means you are a top 5 guy.  I don't think Haskins has that ceiling.  Brandon Scherff is five years into the league and doesn't have a 2nd team nod.  

I'll give you Landon Collins because he was a first team All-Pro in 2016.  Ionnidis is a nice piece, but he's not even a Pro Bowl player yet, much less All Pro.  Same with Allen.  Payne and Sweat haven't proven much yet.  

I get that we all can be homers, but this is extreme burgundy and gold colored glasses you are looking through here.  The Redskins have some nice talent, but nothing that screams ELITE.  Even Trent Williams, for as much as we hold him up, never got a first team All Pro nod.  

 

Fair enough, you guys are right I am taking too rosy a view here.  But I do think our roster has a great deal of potential and talent. 

[Thaiphoon]

3 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

It's harder to find Elite Talent later in the draft but it's not Impossible. Tell me how I wrong with the players I'm targeting with those 3 1st round picks. 

So then you admit that the higher you pick, the easier it is to get a better talent.

Strange. 

Because you're telling us that multiple lower picks are the same as Chase at #2.

[Skins212689]

17 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

So then you admit that the higher you pick, the easier it is to get a better talent.

Strange. 

Because you're telling us that multiple lower picks are the same as Chase at #2.

I'm saying 3 player's that can be ELITE at their position is better than having just 1. I see you didn't respond to my targets in witch you asked me to lay out my ideas aka targets. Once again having Odell, Thomas Davis, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is better than just having Julius Peppers. 

How is that not true? 

I could understand if I was willing to trade from #2 for multiple low round picks. That's not the case, In return I'm asking for 3 1st round picks. The round Elite talent is still easy to find. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Skins212689

[Skins212689]

27 minutes ago, offbyone said:

 

 

Fair enough, you guys are right I am taking too rosy a view here.  But I do think our roster has a great deal of potential and talent. 

Don't let them talk you out of the truth. The team does have alot of potential that Rivera was hired to bring out. 

[naptownskinsfan]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

I think there’s just a misunderstanding about what the back half of the 1st round really consists of. It’s not mostly All-Pros. It’s actually often more busts than long-term starters. 

Since we’re talking about pick #26, I went ahead and pulled the players drafted at 26 since 2010. That list is as follows:

DT Dan Williams

WR Jonathan Baldwin

DE Whitney Mercilus

DE Datone Jones

DE Marcus Smith

WR Breshad Perriman

QB Paxton Lynch

DE Takkarist McKinley

WR Calvin Ridley

DE Montez Sweat

There are zero All-Pro selections in that group. There aren’t even any Pro Bowls. You’ve really got maybe 4 of the 10 that are even long-term starters, let alone stars. If you pull an All-Pro out of the back half of the 1st round, it’s either exceptional scouting or pure dumb luck — probably a lot of both. 

This is the crapshoot of the draft.  Really hard to project at this point moving forward.  It's why I like to look at production- what did they actually do on the field.  Combine stuff is great, but combine warriors typically aren't the highest producers in college, or they are at a smaller school/playing lesser competition.  

It's why, even if you trade the #2 for three other first rounders, the odds aren't that you get studs with each of those picks.  Even the Jets when they had four first rounders didn't get four studs.  The odds are much higher on Chase Young cashing in on his talent at #2 then getting three Pro Bowl tier players out of those other picks.  

The draft at best is an inexact science.  If someone could predict how college players transition to the NFL even 50% of the time, they would be paid a mint by NFL teams.  And while I usually am on the side of more picks, not so much with the top talent in the draft, especially with a guy like Young available.  

[HTTRDynasty]

25 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

I'm saying 3 player's that can be ELITE at their position is better than having just 1. I see you didn't respond to my targets in witch you asked me to lay out my ideas aka targets. Once again having Odell, Thomas Davis, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is better than just having Julius Peppers. 

How is that not true? 

The problem is you're just throwing out flashy names without assigning a likelihood of it happening.  Those comps are the ceiling comps for each prospect, not predictions. 

OBJ is a top 5 WR.  TD was a top 5 off-ball LB in his prime.  Minkah is the best FS in the league.  Saying we'd be getting that level of player with all those picks is just wishful thinking.  We might hit on one, but chances are we completely whiff on at least one and the other doesn't even come close to that potential ceiling.  But let's try to assign weights to these ceiling comps:

Chances of Chase Young becoming as good as Julius Peppers: 70%

Chances of Jeudy becoming as good as OBJ: 80% (I'm being very generous here)

Chances of Kenneth Murray becoming as good as Thomas Davis: 30%

Chances of Xavier McKinney becoming as good as Minkah Fitzpatrick: 15%

The combined probability that all those other guys hit their ceilings is approximately 3.6%.  The combined probability of just Jeudy and Murray hitting their ceilings is 24%.  The combined probability of just Murray and McKinney hitting their ceilings is 4.5%.

Give me the 70% HOFer every time.

Edited February 27, 2020 by HTTRDynasty

[naptownskinsfan]

37 minutes ago, offbyone said:

 

 

Fair enough, you guys are right I am taking too rosy a view here.  But I do think our roster has a great deal of potential and talent. 

And don't get me wrong, just because a guy isn't an All-Pro does not mean he isn't talented.  There is some recency bias that goes into All-Pro voting.  For example, the year the Panthers went 15-1 they had nine All-Pro selections.  Meanwhile, Trent Williams, who most can agree is a top 5 tackle, has never received more than 2nd team All-Pro, likely because the Redskins have not been very good during his tenure.  

For example, while I do not like how much money we gave to Landon Collins, the fact remains he has a first-team All-Pro under his belt and is young enough to do it again.  Matt Ioannidis is a fifth round pick who has played beyond all expectations and was probably worthy of a Pro Bowl alternate selection last year.  However, he's nowhere close to All-Pro level.  Jonathan Allen has performed well and exemplifies (at least from the outside) some leadership qualities, but if he had gone #1 overall, we are likely talking about him being a bust.  All Pro guys are usually top five at their position, unlike Pro Bowlers where you can really reach down now that players are turning down the chance to play.  

But there is a reason that the Redskins went 3-13 last year, and you can't just blame the coaching. 

[Skins212689]

People are just gonna forget or ignore all the talent John Dorsey brought to the Browns once hired to be there GM. Yea all didn't come from the draft but he did get Mayfield, Greedy Williams, Mack Wilson, and Denzel Ward from the draft. While using draft picks to get Odell and Oliver Vernon. Like I said it's more about the person knowing what they are doing oppose to what can't be done. It's not Dorsey fault Kitchens was in over his head as a HC. Just like it wouldn't be Smith or my fault if Rivera didn't lead that Talent to a SuperBowl victory. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Skins212689

[naptownskinsfan]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

The problem is you're just throwing out flashy names without assigning a likelihood of it happening.  Those comps are the ceiling comps for each prospect, not predictions. 

OBJ is a top 5 WR.  TD was a top 5 off-ball LB in his prime.  Minkah is the best FS in the league.  Saying we'd be getting that level of player with all those picks is just wishful thinking.  We might hit on one, but chances are we completely whiff on at least one and the other doesn't even come close to that potential ceiling.  But let's try to assign weights to these ceiling comps:

Chances of Chase Young becoming as good as Julius Peppers: 70%

Chances of Jeudy becoming as good as OBJ: 80% (I'm being very generous here)

Chances of Kenneth Murray becoming as good as Thomas Davis: 30%

Chances of Xavier McKinney becoming as good as Minkah Fitzpatrick: 15%

The combined probability that all those other guys hit their ceilings is approximately 3.6%.  The combined probability of just Jeudy and Murray hitting their ceilings is 24%.  The combined probability of just Jeudy and McKinney hitting their ceilings is 4.5%.

Give me the 70% HOFer every time.

[naptownskinsfan]

11 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

Walter Football also says we are meeting with KJ Hill at the combine, but I can't find anything to back it up.

 

[Skins212689]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

The problem is you're just throwing out flashy names without assigning a likelihood of it happening.  Those comps are the ceiling comps for each prospect, not predictions. 

OBJ is a top 5 WR.  TD was a top 5 off-ball LB in his prime.  Minkah is the best FS in the league.  Saying we'd be getting that level of player with all those picks is just wishful thinking.  We might hit on one, but chances are we completely whiff on at least one and the other doesn't even come close to that potential ceiling.  But let's try to assign weights to these ceiling comps:

Chances of Chase Young becoming as good as Julius Peppers: 70%

Chances of Jeudy becoming as good as OBJ: 80% (I'm being very generous here)

Chances of Kenneth Murray becoming as good as Thomas Davis: 30%

Chances of Xavier McKinney becoming as good as Minkah Fitzpatrick: 15%

The combined probability that all those other guys hit their ceilings is approximately 3.6%.  The combined probability of just Jeudy and Murray hitting their ceilings is 24%.  The combined probability of just Jeudy and McKinney hitting their ceilings is 4.5%.

Give me the 70% HOFer every time.

Where did you come come with these percentages? I will guarentee Jeudy is the 1st or 2nd WR taken in the draft. Same goes for both McKinney and Murray at their positions. 

Having a Hall of Famer doesn't guarantee a SuperBowl PEOPLE. I want Superbowls!!! 

Ray Lewis HOF picked at 26, Ed Reed HoF picked at 24. Goes to show you it was about Ozzie picking the right guy in the 1st round not where they were drafted in the 1st round. 

 

[ripsean21]

6 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

People are just gonna forget or ignore all the talent John Dorsey got to the Browns once hired to be there GM. Yea all didn't come from the draft but he did get Mayfield, Greedy Williams, Mack Wilson, and Denzel Ward from the draft. While using draft picks to get Odell and Oliver Vernon. Like I said it's more about the person knowing what they are doing oppose to what can't be done. It's not Dorsey fault Kitchens was in over his head as a HC. Just like it wouldn't be Smith or my fault if Rivera didn't lead that Talent to a SuperBowl victory. 

Trust me any other year bud and this is the draft trade forum champion group!!! But we’re talking about the best potential defensive draft choice since Sean T. Like being void of not just superstar and star power for so long it’s hard to pass on someone this talented for the type of players we’ve seen at this draft position. Chase is just special. I just hope whatever they do we get the most special player of this class. We need it!!!

[Skins212689]

10 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

And don't get me wrong, just because a guy isn't an All-Pro does not mean he isn't talented.  There is some recency bias that goes into All-Pro voting.  For example, the year the Panthers went 15-1 they had nine All-Pro selections.  Meanwhile, Trent Williams, who most can agree is a top 5 tackle, has never received more than 2nd team All-Pro, likely because the Redskins have not been very good during his tenure.  

For example, while I do not like how much money we gave to Landon Collins, the fact remains he has a first-team All-Pro under his belt and is young enough to do it again.  Matt Ioannidis is a fifth round pick who has played beyond all expectations and was probably worthy of a Pro Bowl alternate selection last year.  However, he's nowhere close to All-Pro level.  Jonathan Allen has performed well and exemplifies (at least from the outside) some leadership qualities, but if he had gone #1 overall, we are likely talking about him being a bust.  All Pro guys are usually top five at their position, unlike Pro Bowlers where you can really reach down now that players are turning down the chance to play.  

But there is a reason that the Redskins went 3-13 last year, and you can't just blame the coaching. 

If that's the case how is 1 Chase Young gonna change that? 

[Skins212689]

4 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

Trust me any other year bud and this is the draft trade forum champion group!!! But we’re talking about the best potential defensive draft choice since Sean T. Like being void of not just superstar and star power for so long it’s hard to pass on someone this talented for the type of players we’ve seen at this draft position. Chase is just special. I just hope whatever they do we get the most special player of this class. We need it!!!

They need Special Player's more than A Special Player. 

[offbyone]

40 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

And don't get me wrong, just because a guy isn't an All-Pro does not mean he isn't talented.  There is some recency bias that goes into All-Pro voting.  For example, the year the Panthers went 15-1 they had nine All-Pro selections.  Meanwhile, Trent Williams, who most can agree is a top 5 tackle, has never received more than 2nd team All-Pro, likely because the Redskins have not been very good during his tenure.  

For example, while I do not like how much money we gave to Landon Collins, the fact remains he has a first-team All-Pro under his belt and is young enough to do it again.  Matt Ioannidis is a fifth round pick who has played beyond all expectations and was probably worthy of a Pro Bowl alternate selection last year.  However, he's nowhere close to All-Pro level.  Jonathan Allen has performed well and exemplifies (at least from the outside) some leadership qualities, but if he had gone #1 overall, we are likely talking about him being a bust.  All Pro guys are usually top five at their position, unlike Pro Bowlers where you can really reach down now that players are turning down the chance to play.  

But there is a reason that the Redskins went 3-13 last year, and you can't just blame the coaching. 

Well I have to disagree with you there.  I am not saying we should have been playoff bound, but 3-13 is absolutely on the coaching staff in my opinion and I expect Rivera to be a > .500 coach immediately with our roster.  

I believe the new coaching staff has a higher potential to deliver wins then any draft pick.  If anything that would be a reason to be open to trade down options.  If we were rolling with Gruden and Manusky than I would say absolutely draft Chase Young and don't ever consider anything else because those clowns were failures at developing talent and squeezing the most out of their players.  Even boring old Callahan was able to get more youth on the field and developed them a bit.  We have to believe Rivera and his staff will develop youth and bring them close to their potential. 

I believe coaching is everything and that coaches are what make great players or rather give players a platform to become great.