2020 Draft thread

[bigdog44]

7 minutes ago, offbyone said:

Well I have to disagree with you there.  I am not saying we should have been playoff bound, but 3-13 is absolutely on the coaching staff in my opinion and I expect Rivera to be a > .500 coach immediately with our roster.  

I believe the new coaching staff has a higher potential to deliver wins then any draft pick.  If anything that would be a reason to be open to trade down options.  If we were rolling with Gruden and Manusky than I would say absolutely draft Chase Young and don't ever consider anything else because those clowns were failures at developing talent and squeezing the most out of their players.  Even boring old Callahan was able to get more youth on the field and developed them a bit.  We have to believe Rivera and his staff will develop youth and bring them close to their potential. 

I believe coaching is everything and that coaches are what make great players or rather give players a platform to become great.  

All of this. Rivera and Del Rio have repeatedly said they took this job because they liked the amount of young talent on the roster. IMO you add a game wrecker like Young then a piece here and there, plus a much better head coach and staff and away we go. 

[Doc Draper]

56 minutes ago, bigdog44 said:

All of this. Rivera and Del Rio have repeatedly said they took this job because they liked the amount of young talent on the roster. IMO you add a game wrecker like Young then a piece here and there, plus a much better head coach and staff and away we go. 

You must also agree you don’t say you took a job even though the team stinks and you just got fired and wanted a job, would you? 
 

I like Rivera, he’s a hard worker and he seems smart unlike our previous head coach, so I feel positive with his hire, but I take what he says publicly and don’t put too much faith into it, I will see how we prepare in the offseason and do on the field 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Doc Draper

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, Skins212689 said:

Where did you come come with these percentages? I will guarentee Jeudy is the 1st or 2nd WR taken in the draft. Same goes for both McKinney and Murray at their positions. 

Having a Hall of Famer doesn't guarantee a SuperBowl PEOPLE. I want Superbowls!!! 

Ray Lewis HOF picked at 26, Ed Reed HoF picked at 24. Goes to show you it was about Ozzie picking the right guy in the 1st round not where they were drafted in the 1st round. 

The individual percentages don't matter all that much.  Those were just based on my personal beliefs of the likelihood the players you named will reach their ceilings.  The point of the post was that the likelihood of those players collectively reaching their respective ceilings is extremely low.

Even if you gave each of those players a 50% chance of reaching their ceilings, there is only a 12.5% chance they all reach their ceilings.  There would be only a 25% chance two of those three players reach their ceilings.  Would you take that over a 50% chance Young reaches his ceiling?

[bigdog44]

33 minutes ago, Doc Draper said:

You must also agree you don’t say you took a job even though the team stinks and you just got fired and wanted a job, would you? 
 

I like Rivera, he’s a hard worker and he seems smart unlike our previous head coach, so I feel positive with his hire, but I take what he says publicly and don’t put too much faith into it, I will see how we prepare in the offseason and do on the field 

I see what your saying, but it’s not like he waited for other jobs to open and made a choice. It seems he liked the roster/power he’d be given and jumped on it. I’m not saying he could have had any job he wanted but he would have definately got other offers, I’m sure he and his agent knew that. 

[Skins212689]

40 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The individual percentages don't matter all that much.  Those were just based on my personal beliefs of the likelihood the players you named will reach their ceilings.  The point of the post was that the likelihood of those players collectively reaching their respective ceilings is extremely low.

Even if you gave each of those players a 50% chance of reaching their ceilings, there is only a 12.5% chance they all reach their ceilings.  There would be only a 25% chance two of those three players reach their ceilings.  Would you take that over a 50% chance Young reaches his ceiling?

I'm not buying into your delusional personal beliefs. I know for sure I have a higher chance of creating a Great Football Team with multiple players oppose to just 1 one. As said and proven it comes down to who you draft more often not where you draft them. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Skins212689

[HTTRDynasty]

13 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

I'm not buying into your delusional personal beliefs. I know for sure I have a higher chance of creating a Great Football Team with multiple players oppose to just 1 one. As said and proven it comes down to who you draft more often not where you draft them. 

[tredaddy]

3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The problem is you're just throwing out flashy names without assigning a likelihood of it happening.  Those comps are the ceiling comps for each prospect, not predictions. 

OBJ is a top 5 WR.  TD was a top 5 off-ball LB in his prime.  Minkah is the best FS in the league.  Saying we'd be getting that level of player with all those picks is just wishful thinking.  We might hit on one, but chances are we completely whiff on at least one and the other doesn't even come close to that potential ceiling.  But let's try to assign weights to these ceiling comps:

Chances of Chase Young becoming as good as Julius Peppers: 70%

Chances of Jeudy becoming as good as OBJ: 80% (I'm being very generous here)

Chances of Kenneth Murray becoming as good as Thomas Davis: 30%

Chances of Xavier McKinney becoming as good as Minkah Fitzpatrick: 15%

The combined probability that all those other guys hit their ceilings is approximately 3.6%.  The combined probability of just Jeudy and Murray hitting their ceilings is 24%.  The combined probability of just Murray and McKinney hitting their ceilings is 4.5%.

Give me the 70% HOFer every time.

Great post.  Jeudy isn’t even my fav wr in the draft!  It is rare someone of his size becomes a true alpha receiver in the NFL.  It’s definitely in his range of outcomes but obj is not easy to be as good as

[ripsean21]

7 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

They need Special Player's more than A Special Player. 

We do. But what if we just get one good one okay and one role player? 

[MikeT14]

14 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

Yes. 

 

14 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

Chase Young Julius Peppers comparison came from there as well. 

So, okay, I use Walter for some information, but my tip is to not use them for their football analysis. They're known for copying other people's work and claiming it as their own (or being first), or throwing a lot of poop at the wall and seeing what sticks. They have some good resources on there, I know, but buyer beware. 

My 2 cents because I know you appreciate the FACTS. 

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

So, okay, I use Walter for some information, but my tip is to not use them for their football analysis. They're known for copying other people's work and claiming it as their own (or being first), or throwing a lot of poop at the wall and seeing what sticks. They have some good resources on there, I know, but buyer beware. 

My 2 cents because I know you appreciate the FACTS. 

And I think the bigger issue here is that these are comparisons, not projections. They’re trying to give people — including more casual fans who don’t know a lot about the draft or prospects — an idea of how a guy plays. They’re not saying “he’ll be as good as X player”; they’re saying “his style of play reminds us of X player.” That’s why they tend to use famous/great players for their comps. It wouldn’t do much good to compare Kenneth Murray to Peanut Onwuasor, for example, because most people don’t even know who Peanut is, let alone how he plays.

So you get a comparison of Jeudy to OBJ, because he’s a smaller (for a WR1) receiver who will win with route-running, unmatchable quickness, and burst before and after the catch. They’re not necessarily saying that you should consider drafting Jeudy to be the equivalent of adding OBJ to your team, just an OBJ-type player.

Chase Young to Peppers, makes sense because he’s a lanky two-way RE with athleticism and polish that will allow him to be a force from day one. Kenneth Murray to Kuechly is just lazy, he’s much more the “heat seeking missile” than the “field general” at this point. Probably a closer comp to Thomas Davis than Kuechly right now, even just among ex-Panthers linebackers. But that sorta makes my point — while casual fans aren’t really familiar with Thomas Davis, they know Luke Kuechly is a great MLB, so that’s who Murray gets compared to. 

[MikeT14]

@e16bball

[tredaddy]

Tua's medicals coming back remarkably positive just made things helluva lot more interesting.  I think we have seem to changed our stance of "almost a lock we take Young" to "everything is on the table" now.  

My guess is we have decided internally what our price is to move down.  Gonna be really interesting to see what our price might be. 

WAS could technically get a slew of picks if they can pull off: 

- Trade down with DET (who desperately needs to address their 2nd worst sack total last year) for a 2nd this year and 2021 2nd.  

- Trade down again to MIA/LAC for highest Tua sweepstake bidder for an extra 1st/2nd (being realistic here, don't see 3 1sts happening) 

 That would be pretty juicy.  I still love Young though and hope we take him.  

 

 

[Thaiphoon]

2 hours ago, tredaddy said:

Tua's medicals coming back remarkably positive just made things helluva lot more interesting.  I think we have seem to changed our stance of "almost a lock we take Young" to "everything is on the table" now.  

My guess is we have decided internally what our price is to move down.  Gonna be really interesting to see what our price might be. 

WAS could technically get a slew of picks if they can pull off: 

- Trade down with DET (who desperately needs to address their 2nd worst sack total last year) for a 2nd this year and 2021 2nd.  

- Trade down again to MIA/LAC for highest Tua sweepstake bidder for an extra 1st/2nd (being realistic here, don't see 3 1sts happening) 

 That would be pretty juicy.  I still love Young though and hope we take him.  

 

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in the fact that we met with Tua. IMHO, we need to be meeting with ALL of these guys. Because in a year or two (or three), if a team wants to move them, it is better if we do our due diligence on them now and know what we thought about the prospect coming out of college.

That being said. As much as I want them to take Chase, yes. Everything should be on the table. If someone wants to give us a stupid deal (3 firsts and a 2nd this year PLUS a first next year?) then we have to consider it. And we still might not ending up taking it. But the key here is to never lock yourself in until the very moment you need to.

[LoganF89]

2 hours ago, tredaddy said:

Tua's medicals coming back remarkably positive just made things helluva lot more interesting.  I think we have seem to changed our stance of "almost a lock we take Young" to "everything is on the table" now.  

My guess is we have decided internally what our price is to move down.  Gonna be really interesting to see what our price might be. 

WAS could technically get a slew of picks if they can pull off: 

- Trade down with DET (who desperately needs to address their 2nd worst sack total last year) for a 2nd this year and 2021 2nd.  

- Trade down again to MIA/LAC for highest Tua sweepstake bidder for an extra 1st/2nd (being realistic here, don't see 3 1sts happening) 

 That would be pretty juicy.  I still love Young though and hope we take him.  

 

 

If for some reason the bengals took Tua and we did a trade with Detroit like you said then I would actually look at the Carolina panthers as a trade target.

reason being they are a bit further back and would have to give up much more and would also be weak at the knees with burrows OC from LSU with them now. They would be the team I could see over paying, especially if Rhule wants to pick his own QB

in the end I think we pick Young and I think it’s a 95% chance we do so. But there’s always that one team that offers something stupid!

[turtle28]

18 hours ago, bigdog44 said:

All of this. Rivera and Del Rio have repeatedly said they took this job because they liked the amount of young talent on the roster. IMO you add a game wrecker like Young then a piece here and there, plus a much better head coach and staff and away we go. 

Definitely, but how many games we win next year hinges a lot on the development of Haskins. Rivera and Del Rio will have our defense improved. I expect our running game to be about the same - maybe better with Rivera having more of an emphasis on it and if Guice stays healthy. So, if we get an upgrade - preferably two at TE - and our WRs continue to progress/develop and Haskins improves his consistency our team has a chance to be around .500. A lot of things have to work out though for that to happen. I think it’s most likely we win 5 or 6 games next year and as long as Haskins is progressing and remains the starter, in 2021 we’ll be competing for a playoff spot.