2020 Draft thread

[Woz]

On 12/26/2019 at 9:42 PM, Skins212689 said:

Where is the pride in Snyder "The Fan"  that wants to win? Or is he too Arrogant to do anything about the thousands of empty seats at his Home Stadium?

The Fan is being silenced by The Owner who is mentally swimming through his billions a la Scrooge McDuck. He may have once cared about the team winning; he doesn't any more. If he did, Bruce Allen would not be allowed to stay.

[Woz]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:47 AM, Doc Draper said:

The Redskins way- we have the number 2 pick now. If we win next week in Dallas we probably drop to 5 behind the bengals lions giants dolphins. So I expect a Redskins win 

The Washington over Dallas/Detroit over Green Bay/NY Giants over Philadelphia/Miami over New England exacta probably pays a pretty penny there, Doc. All of the "losers" in that scenario have something to play for this weekend (Philly and Dallas in who wins the NFC East, Green Bay and New England making sure they get first round byes).

[e16bball]

19 hours ago, ripsean21 said:

I’m not as high as most are on Juedy. He didn’t really show me anything in their big games this season. They had 3 other guys tearing it up I can’t even remember his stat lines. That doesn’t mean I won’t go back and review his games break down his routes and see if he was open missed or just what the deal is to note what was going on. But I’m not as high as most on him. But I also don’t value a WR in the top 10 because there’s a reason your picking there and I can’t remeber a case where that position was where I said wow they get that they can be a contender

Been trying to find a way/the time to put this into words for a while. 

I’m a big Jeudy fan when I watch him. But I have a little bit of trouble just flatly believing he’s a “generational talent” and the best WR prospect in years when he was second on his own team in receiving by like 250 yards (and closer to 3rd than 1st). 

He definitely doesn’t have elite size or strength, and he probably doesn’t have elite speed. He’s a masterful technician, and his burst/quickness will probably rate out as elite — but is that the stuff of a top 5 pick WR?

It’s pretty reminiscent of Amari Cooper, who of course did go in the top 5, but Cooper had like 125 catches for 1725 yards at Bama. Jeudy is only a bit past halfway to that yardage with one game left. They didn’t really have any other decent receiving targets that year, which helped Cooper amass those stats I’m sure, though they also had much worse QB play and a much more run-heavy scheme with Yeldon and Henry.

But it begs the question: if Jerry Jeudy is the best WR since AJ Green/Julio Jones, why are they wasting time throwing to guys like Devonta Smith and Henry Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle so much? Just get the ball to your transcendent talent as much as possible and go from there. Saban knows this — he did it with Julio Jones (2x the production of next best WR) and Cooper (3x the production of next best WR). But he’s not doing it with Jeudy. Why?

[Woz]

6 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Yeah, Hooper’s not hitting the open market.

 

Most likely not, but you never know. At this point, if you are Hooper, unless the Falcons reset the market for you in February, you might as well see what the open market would offer you in March. That's not to say he doesn't return to Atlanta; I would expect him to, to be honest. I'm just saying that he might as well be feted by other teams like he hasn't been since he was fielding college offers.

[Woz]

1 minute ago, e16bball said:

Been trying to find a way/the time to put this into words for a while. 

I’m a big Jeudy fan when I watch him. But I have a little bit of trouble just flatly believing he’s a “generational talent” and the best WR prospect in years when he was second on his own team in receiving by like 250 yards (and closer to 3rd than 1st). 

He definitely doesn’t have elite size or strength, and he probably doesn’t have elite speed. He’s a masterful technician, and his burst/quickness will probably rate out as elite — but is that the stuff of a top 5 pick WR?

It’s pretty reminiscent of Amari Cooper, who of course did go in the top 5, but Cooper had like 125 catches for 1725 yards at Bama. Jeudy is only a bit past halfway to that yardage with one game left. They didn’t really have any other decent receiving targets that year, which helped Cooper amass those stats I’m sure, though they also had much worse QB play and a much more run-heavy scheme with Yeldon and Henry.

But it begs the question: if Jerry Jeudy is the best WR since AJ Green/Julio Jones, why are they wasting time throwing to guys like Devonta Smith and Henry Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle so much? Just get the ball to your transcendent talent as much as possible and go from there. Saban knows this — he did it with Julio Jones (2x the production of next best WR) and Cooper (3x the production of next best WR). But he’s not doing it with Jeudy. Why?

Honestly asking here, e16: Jeudy == Anquan Boldin?

Was never the fastest guy or the flashiest guy, but got the job done (tough route runner, great hands) ... and had a decent career in the NFL (had he stayed with one or two teams he would likely be a strong HoF candidate)

[e16bball]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Yeah, Hooper’s not hitting the open market.

 

I mean...with that $12M freed up, they’re now projected for about $10.5M in cap space. 

Maybe they decide to restructure more guys — looks like Julio Jones or Desmond Trufant would be the top candidates, although Julio’s future cap hits are already huge and Trufant has been plagued by injuries this season, so they may not want to guarantee more future money to them. 

There are other cuts/trades they could make to free up some cap space, but it’s mostly starters like Alex Mack, Ricardo Allen, Devonta Freeman, and Keanu Neal. Any of those moves would further weaken their team, and would open up a hole that would have to be filled with money or draft picks anyway. Some guys (Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo, and Luke Stocker stick out) could probably be cut for cap space and not leave big holes in the roster, so they probably can free up some space that way. 

All that said, I’d have a hard time envisioning them getting themselves up to more than about $30-35M in cap space. Which would involve some major cuts and/or risky restructures to get even to there. And that’s before adding in space for draft pick contracts or considering that they have other significant FAs like Adrian Clayborn, Vic Beasley, Devondre Campbell, and even Matt Bosher who need to be considered for retention as well. And it’s WELL before considering that their defense is their big problem, and they really should be investing their money on that side of the ball.

In other words, I don’t think they can realistically afford to franchise tag Hooper at $10M for next season. Maybe they can try to lock him up to a team-friendly extension, but why would he sign that without testing FA first? They’re a team clearly on the decline, and he’s probably going to challenge to be among the highest paid TEs in history if he hits FA. 

[e16bball]

26 minutes ago, Woz said:

Honestly asking here, e16: Jeudy == Anquan Boldin?

Was never the fastest guy or the flashiest guy, but got the job done (tough route runner, great hands) ... and had a decent career in the NFL (had he stayed with one or two teams he would likely be a strong HoF candidate)

Better athlete in terms of speed/quickness, not nearly as big or strong as Boldin. 

Mine feels like a cop-out comparison because they both went to the same school pretty close together, but Amari Cooper is really what I see with Jeudy. Because of the size/quickness/route-running similarities, I guess you could also see Antonio Brown or even OBJ in him — although I think OBJ plays a lot angrier than Jeudy. 

I don’t mean to denigrate Jeudy by any stretch. He’s terrific. I think he’s got a great shot to be a star in the NFL if he keeps a good head on his shoulders — though I feel like that’s no guarantee, because I’ve gotten some bad vibes from him this season and because I just saw articles/video of him working out with AB this summer that would scare me to death. 

But if I’m taking a WR in the top 5, I kinda want a juggernaut. A Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green type who can physically dominate you pretty much every which way — size, speed, strength, quickness. Those guys could post you up in the red zone or run past you on a straight 9 or be impossible to drag down on a quick slant. Jeudy is going to be a super tough cover in the NFL, but he’s never going to dominate you physically like those bigger athletes could. Which makes the margin for error much smaller than it would be for a typical top 5 pick. You might be getting Amari Cooper (or better), but if he’s not perfect in every area of his craft moving forward, you might be getting Corey Davis. 

[Ghostnote]

2 hours ago, lavar703 said:

It's crazy to think there's a chance Chase Young and Jerry Jeudy will both be in the NFC East.

Hopefully Young will be in B&G. So long as JEudy is not a Cowboy or Eagle, its fine. The Giants are a mess as much as the Skins. 

[HTTRDynasty]

31 minutes ago, Woz said:

Most likely not, but you never know. At this point, if you are Hooper, unless the Falcons reset the market for you in February, you might as well see what the open market would offer you in March. That's not to say he doesn't return to Atlanta; I would expect him to, to be honest. I'm just saying that he might as well be feted by other teams like he hasn't been since he was fielding college offers.

 

14 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I mean...with that $12M freed up, they’re now projected for about $10.5M in cap space. 

Maybe they decide to restructure more guys — looks like Julio Jones or Desmond Trufant would be the top candidates, although Julio’s future cap hits are already huge and Trufant has been plagued by injuries this season, so they may not want to guarantee more future money to them. 

There are other cuts/trades they could make to free up some cap space, but it’s mostly starters like Alex Mack, Ricardo Allen, Devonta Freeman, and Keanu Neal. Any of those moves would further weaken their team, and would open up a hole that would have to be filled with money or draft picks anyway. Some guys (Allen Bailey, Ty Sambrailo, and Luke Stocker stick out) could probably be cut for cap space and not leave big holes in the roster, so they probably can free up some space that way. 

All that said, I’d have a hard time envisioning them getting themselves up to more than about $30-35M in cap space. Which would involve some major cuts and/or risky restructures to get even to there. And that’s before adding in space for draft pick contracts or considering that they have other significant FAs like Adrian Clayborn, Vic Beasley, Devondre Campbell, and even Matt Bosher who need to be considered for retention as well. And it’s WELL before considering that their defense is their big problem, and they really should be investing their money on that side of the ball.

In other words, I don’t think they can realistically afford to franchise tag Hooper at $10M for next season. Maybe they can try to lock him up to a team-friendly extension, but why would he sign that without testing FA first? They’re a team clearly on the decline, and he’s probably going to challenge to be among the highest paid TEs in history if he hits FA. 

I can't recall the last time the Falcons allowed a player to hit the open market that they really wanted to keep.  They have a history of extending guys they want to build around before that happens.  There are several reasons why I don't see them allowing Hooper to hit the open market.

• The brain trust there - Thomas Dimitroff and Dan Quinn - are both returning in 2020, and it will likely be their last year in ATL unless they make the playoffs.
• As a consequence of the above, those two will hardly care about the potential cap ramifications down the line of restructuring the contracts of certain players.
• Also, this is a unique year, as it will be the last offseason before the CBA expires.  From all accounts, cap space is expected to balloon significantly in 2021, so promising guaranteed money in the future through restructures will likely not be as damaging as we've come to expect.
• Most of the free agents you mentioned are either average or below average players.  Any competent FO would prioritize extending a top 5 player at his position in Hooper over nearly all of those guys, rather than overpaying for mediocre talent.
• As a result of all of the above, I think they will use the franchise tag as a last resort.

So maybe it's just me being a natural pessimist with all thing Redskins-related, but I just don't see him being allowed to hit the open market.

[lavar703]

I would think Eric Ebron is a strong candidate to sign here. I haven't seriously entertained Hooper because I don't believe he's hitting free agency. 

[aceinthehouse]

I like Jeudy as well.

But this class is deep at talented, high ceiling WR's whom I would prefer to get in the later rounds 

I think we need to go Chase Young 100%, unless 2 things happen.

1)Trent Williams is traded or released regardless of the Bruce Allen/FO restructure & we are unable to sign or trade for a top LT. Thus, putting our interest in Andrew Thomas or Tristan Wirff as possible replacements in the Draft.

Or

2)We get a trade offer for the #2 overall pick that makes RG3 & Hershall Walker blush.

Only then, should we consider NOT selecting Chase Young. Of course, Cinci taking Young at #1 overall would also change things as well.

I personally have been thinking of trade options to move up to #1 overall with Cinci to assure we get Chase Young & still have a LT.

One trade I would try to make is this one...to the Bengals.

Redskins trade #2 overall pick, LT Trent Williams, DE/DTJohnathon Allen & OLB Ryan Kerrigan.

For Bengals #1 overall pick, LT 

Jonah Williams | Alabama, & 2020 2nd RD draft choice.

This clears some cap, allows us to not worry about retaining J. Allen & his 5th year option, while having a deep front line still even in the 4-3 with Young, Payne, Ionitus, Sweat & Settle

And....

Having our Franchise LT already here in Jonah Williams who unfortunately, hasn't played a down cause of a preseason injury his rookie year.

I think the compensation is fair & also gets us a 2nd Rd pick to address other needs or wants.

There would be some good WR's & CB's in the 2nd Rd. With 1st Rd talent.

Could probably get CB Bryce Hall out of Virginia there.

Could target WR K.J. Hill out of Ohio St in the 3rd. Another target for Haskins.

Edited December 28, 2019 by aceinthehouse

[lavar703]

I don't care what happens with Trent Williams, you don't take inferior prospects over Chase Young because of need. Penn played admirably this year and I wouldn't be shocked to see him back next year in the same capacity. I think we'll get a second and a fourth for Trent and I do believe there will be serious consideration to deal Kerrigan.

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

Been trying to find a way/the time to put this into words for a while. 

I’m a big Jeudy fan when I watch him. But I have a little bit of trouble just flatly believing he’s a “generational talent” and the best WR prospect in years when he was second on his own team in receiving by like 250 yards (and closer to 3rd than 1st). 

He definitely doesn’t have elite size or strength, and he probably doesn’t have elite speed. He’s a masterful technician, and his burst/quickness will probably rate out as elite — but is that the stuff of a top 5 pick WR?

It’s pretty reminiscent of Amari Cooper, who of course did go in the top 5, but Cooper had like 125 catches for 1725 yards at Bama. Jeudy is only a bit past halfway to that yardage with one game left. They didn’t really have any other decent receiving targets that year, which helped Cooper amass those stats I’m sure, though they also had much worse QB play and a much more run-heavy scheme with Yeldon and Henry.

But it begs the question: if Jerry Jeudy is the best WR since AJ Green/Julio Jones, why are they wasting time throwing to guys like Devonta Smith and Henry Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle so much? Just get the ball to your transcendent talent as much as possible and go from there. Saban knows this — he did it with Julio Jones (2x the production of next best WR) and Cooper (3x the production of next best WR). But he’s not doing it with Jeudy. Why?

I think Jeudy draws most of the coverage and the others feast. I definitely agree Jeudy is like Cooper.

[ARTMONK HOF]

Would love to add Justin Jefferson WR/LSU to our young and promising receiving corps. 

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I can't recall the last time the Falcons allowed a player to hit the open market that they really wanted to keep.  They have a history of extending guys they want to build around before that happens.  There are several reasons why I don't see them allowing Hooper to hit the open market.

• The brain trust there - Thomas Dimitroff and Dan Quinn - are both returning in 2020, and it will likely be their last year in ATL unless they make the playoffs.
• As a consequence of the above, those two will hardly care about the potential cap ramifications down the line of restructuring the contracts of certain players.
• Also, this is a unique year, as it will be the last offseason before the CBA expires.  From all accounts, cap space is expected to balloon significantly in 2021, so promising guaranteed money in the future through restructures will likely not be as damaging as we've come to expect.
• Most of the free agents you mentioned are either average or below average players.  Any competent FO would prioritize extending a top 5 player at his position in Hooper over nearly all of those guys, rather than overpaying for mediocre talent.
• As a result of all of the above, I think they will use the franchise tag as a last resort.

So maybe it's just me being a natural pessimist with all thing Redskins-related, but I just don't see him being allowed to hit the open market.

Good post, and you may well be right. 

I think the larger point with their other pending FAs is that if they do choose to cut bait on those particular players who you describe as average or below-average, they still need to replace them. Devondre Campbell was 3rd on the team in defensive snaps. If they let him walk, they need to plug someone else in as an every-down LB. That will cost money. Vic Beasley played more snaps than any DL not named Grady Jarrett. If they’re cutting Bailey (which they’d have to do to free up max cap space) and letting Clayborn walk, that’s almost 1700 snaps to replace in their front 4/5. Bosher has been their punter and their kickoff man for years, if they let him walk, that’s another hole that needs to be filled with a couple million bucks to get a quality option. 

I think your best point is the human element in all this, namely the fact that both the coach and the GM are on the hot seat. We’ve seen this season what happens when individuals are coaching/managing for their jobs, so maybe Dimitroff will do something silly/shortsighted in order to keep Hooper around. But the way they’ve managed in the past (which you accurately described) is what has them in their current mess — a terrible cap situation with an aging, declining roster that isn’t winning anymore. You can’t keep everyone, the league isn’t set up to work that way. Eventually they’re going to be forced to let somebody walk, but maybe that won’t be Hooper. We’ll see soon enough!