2020 Draft thread

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, RSkinGM said:

I think J J has the least "bust" potential of the top guys . #2 overall though - tough one .

Jeudy? And why take a less talented player just bc you’re pretty sure he’ll not bust but he doesn’t have the potential to be as great as Young?

Edited January 5, 2020 by turtle28

[Woz]

7 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Let's be clear that ”targets” aren't all catchable passes. We all know that our WRs weren't the best - outside of McLaurin - and at times at the end of the year, Steven Sims and Harmon too. But, all of our QBs were widely inaccurate for most of the year as well. The fact that Richardson was targeted 77 times and only had 48 receptions - with maybe 3 drops on the season - is as much an indictment of poor QB play then it is of poor WR play.

Even so, 48/77 is a 62% catch rate, that's not awful either.

The problem with Richardson is he can’t say on the field for much more than half a season, Terry McLaurin surpassed him for the reason we signed Rich - to replace DJax as a our intermediate to deep WR - and we are paying PRICH to be a number one WR -at worst a 1b - which he is not. 

Those are the reasons he should be gone, not bc the QBs can't throw him catchable passes.

I agree with your analysis in the third paragraph (that he cannot stay on the field, that McLaurin has surpassed him, and that he's not a 1a/1b receiver like we're paying him).

But, and this should come as no shock, I cannot let the target thing go.

First off, the 48/77 number is combined from two years of play. He went 20/35 in 2018 (57.1%) and 28/42 (66.7%) in 2019.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/receiving.htm#receiving::rec - tied for 164th, only a smidge better than Josh Doctson (169th at 56.4%), but worse than Chris Thompson (36th at 74.5%), Vernon Davis (83rd at 69.4%), Jordan Reed (120th at 64.3%), Maurice Harris (154th at 59.6%), and Jamison Crowder (155th at 59.2%)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/receiving.htm#receiving::rec - tied for 97th, but that was only third best behind Chris Thompson (54th at 72.4%) and Kelvin Harmon (87th at 68.2%); Jeremy Sprinkle (115th at 65.0%), Terry McLaurin (136th at 62.4%), Steven Sims (146th at 60.7%), and Trey Quinn (175th at 55.3%) trailed him.

 

So, year one he was one of the worst on the team and year two he was one of the best.

 

However, in both cases, he couldn't stay on the field and given they would be paying him $8M in cap space for likely half a year (and the young guys stepped forward (though not as much as I would have thought)), he's disposable.

[turtle28]

5 minutes ago, Woz said:

I agree with your analysis in the third paragraph (that he cannot stay on the field, that McLaurin has surpassed him, and that he's not a 1a/1b receiver like we're paying him).

But, and this should come as no shock, I cannot let the target thing go.

First off, the 48/77 number is combined from two years of play. He went 20/35 in 2018 (57.1%) and 28/42 (66.7%) in 2019.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/receiving.htm#receiving::rec - tied for 164th, only a smidge better than Josh Doctson (169th at 56.4%), but worse than Chris Thompson (36th at 74.5%), Vernon Davis (83rd at 69.4%), Jordan Reed (120th at 64.3%), Maurice Harris (154th at 59.6%), and Jamison Crowder (155th at 59.2%)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/receiving.htm#receiving::rec - tied for 97th, but that was only third best behind Chris Thompson (54th at 72.4%) and Kelvin Harmon (87th at 68.2%); Jeremy Sprinkle (115th at 65.0%), Terry McLaurin (136th at 62.4%), Steven Sims (146th at 60.7%), and Trey Quinn (175th at 55.3%) trailed him.

 

So, year one he was one of the worst on the team and year two he was one of the best.

 

However, in both cases, he couldn't stay on the field and given they would be paying him $8M in cap space for likely half a year (and the young guys stepped forward (though not as much as I would have thought)), he's disposable.

Yeah, I missed that you were talking about both seasons. Still, 48/77 targets in 17 games is essentially one season. The problem with PRich and why he is disposable is he can’t stay healthy, McLaurin surpassed him as the intermediate to deep WR, he’s overpaid for being a #2 WR, our top 3 WRs have surpassed him in terms of production and even Trey Quinn was equivalent to PRich this year in production. Those are the reasons he should be cut.

Again, targets aren’t all catchable balls. They are targets, like the QB threw his way, that doesn’t mean it was a catchable ball and we should all know from watching the games that outside of 3 to 5 passes thrown to PRich over the last two seasons that the targets where he didn’t catch it, they weren’t catchable.

[Woz]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

Yeah, I missed that you were talking about both seasons. Still, 48/77 targets in 17 games is essentially one season. The problem with PRich and why he is disposable is he can’t stay healthy, McLaurin surpassed him as the intermediate to deep WR, he’s overpaid for being a #2 WR, our top 3 WRs have surpassed him in terms of production and even Trey Quinn was equivalent to PRich this year in production. Those are the reasons he should be cut.

And on this we agree.

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

Again, targets aren’t all catchable balls. They are targets, like the QB threw his way, that doesn’t mean it was a catchable ball and we should all know from watching the games that outside of 3 to 5 passes thrown to PRich over the last two seasons that the targets where he didn’t catch it, they weren’t catchable.

It's why I showed how the other receivers did. They all had the same QBs throwing to them.

[turtle28]

@Woz Comparing an outside WR’s catch rate to a TE or RB is just not equitable. And we've already established that McLaurin is better than Richardson, so you’ll.get no argument from me there.

In 2018 Richardson was used as a downfield WR, almost all of the targets to him were 15 plus yards downfield. It's not an equal comparison to compare his catch rate to those that are getting targets on closer passes like a slot WR, TE or RB, that goes for Crowder and Doctson too as most of their targets we're closer then Richardson’s targets. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by turtle28

[RSkinGM]

3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Jeudy? And why take a less talented player just bc you’re pretty sure he’ll not bust but he doesn’t have the potential to be as great as Young?

I'm not sold on Young . I'm still waiting for the combine . See how he shows. Jeudy 's a game changer too !

[ovfd55]

2 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

I'm not sold on Young . I'm still waiting for the combine . See how he shows. Jeudy 's a game changer too !

THe thing I'm most interested in with Young is the 10 yard split don't care about the 40 but his 1st step in games seem Electric would expecta great 10 yard split if he runs.I don't really expect him to do anything at combine it does nothing for him as he guarnteeed a top 2 at worse 3 pick

[ripsean21]

6 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

I'm not sold on Young . I'm still waiting for the combine . See how he shows. Jeudy 's a game changer too !

I get having a different opinion but what aren’t you sold on with Young?

[turtle28]

6 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

I'm not sold on Young . I'm still waiting for the combine . See how he shows. Jeudy 's a game changer too !

The combine? The combine doesn't matter! Young had 16.5 sacks and 6 forced fumbles for Ohio State, that's what you need to know. Watch him play football, that's what matters, not the combine! He set the Ohio State record for sacks. He's a better prospect than the Bosa brothers and look at what they did for the San Diego and San Fran defenses once they got there.

Jeudy is a good WR, he’s not the prospect that Young is. If he was, he would be ranked right with Young as a prospect but he's ranked lower.

Young is the best prospect in the draft. The only reason he won't go #1 is if Cincy wants to take a QB and end the Dalton era.

[turtle28]

4 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

I get having a different opinion but what aren’t you sold on with Young?

Probably bc he didn't dominate in the College Football Playoff game, everyone keeps bringing that up when the reasons are obvious why he didn't dominate in that game, it's bc Clemson took him out of the game with zone-read plays, play action and QB runs - especially QB draws - and even so, he did have a half-sack that was taken away when Shaun Wade was thrown out for a targeting helmet to helmet hit and Young had several pressures. People pay too much attention to stats instead of watching the plays on the field.

[ripsean21]

23 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Probably bc he didn't dominate in the College Football Playoff game, everyone keeps bringing that up when the reasons are obvious why he didn't dominate in that game, it's bc Clemson took him out of the game with zone-read plays, play action and QB runs - especially QB draws - and even so, he did have a half-sack that was taken away when Shaun Wade was thrown out for a targeting helmet to helmet hit and Young had several pressures. People pay too much attention to stats instead of watching the plays on the field.

Oh he was very disruptive. He also had 3 plays where he had the initial pressure after a double team. He had a good game they did a lot to go away from Young. Ran to the opposite side most of the game. Clemson out coached OSU. Young looked very good getting pressure. Not every week are you going to get home but he caused 2 sacks from making Lawrence step up so I think basing things off one nationally televised game isn’t fair. He showed out huge the last two years I just want to know if there’s something I haven’t seen because he plays with effort and a good motor and he is a game changer

[Woz]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

@Woz Comparing an outside WR’s catch rate to a TE or RB is just not equitable. And we've already established that McLaurin is better than Richardson, so you’ll.get no argument from me there

Fair point about comparing him to a RB, but I would argue a TE is. And it wasn't just McLaurin, but other receivers like Mo Harris.

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

In 2018 Richardson was used as a downfield WR, almost all of the targets to him were 15 plus yards downfield. It's not an equal comparison to compare his catch rate to those that are getting targets on closer passes like a slot WR, TE or RB, that goes for Crowder and Doctson too as most of their targets we're closer then Richardson’s targets. 

I would be curious where you got that target distance information. Honestly asking.

Also, again, Mo Harris.

[turtle28]

6 minutes ago, Woz said:

Fair point about comparing him to a RB, but I would argue a TE is. And it wasn't just McLaurin, but other receivers like Mo Harris.

I would be curious where you got that target distance information. Honestly asking.

Also, again, Mo Harris.

Bc I watched the games Woz, it’s in my mind. Just like most of Terry’s targets this year were downfield, so were PRich’s in 2018, PRich’s ypc was 13 yards in 2018 which tells me most of the passes thrown to him were further than 10 yards downfield.

Who the eff cares, I’m done! 

Edited January 5, 2020 by turtle28

[Woz]

26 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Bc I watched the games Woz, it’s in my mind. Just like most of Terry’s targets this year were downfield, so were PRich’s in 2018, PRich’s ypc was 13 yards in 2018 which tells me most of the passes thrown to him were further than 10 yards downfield.

Who the eff cares, I’m done! 

I honestly asked where you got your information because I like having stuff at hand.

No need to get your knickers in a twist.

[naptownskinsfan]

5 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Jeudy? And why take a less talented player just bc you’re pretty sure he’ll not bust but he doesn’t have the potential to be as great as Young?

I just think Aaron Curry when I see statements like the one you quoted.  There is no such thing as a "safe" NFL draft pick.  Aaron Curry's floor was supposedly above average starter, but he busted out.  Robert Gallery was going to be a top 10 tackle, but he failed at both tackle positions before having a run as a guard.  Roberto Aguayo set tons of records at Florida State and was a terrible NFL kicker.  Once you get to the next level, you just don't know.