BDL 2019 Week 3 - Portland Horned Owls @ Oklahoma City EF5s

[ny92mike]

BDL 2019 Week 3

Match:  Portland Horned Owls @ Oklahoma City EF5s

Away Owner: @SwoleXmad

Home Owner:   @Whicker

Vote for who you think will win this game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

Edited September 22, 2019 by ny92mike

[ny92mike]

Portland Horned Owls

QB1: Patrick "MVP" Homages II
RB1: Christian  McCaffrey
WR1: Davante Adams
WR2: Mike Williams 
WR3: Marvin Jones
WR4: John Ross
LT: Laremy Tunsil - (Q)
LG: Will Hernandez
C:  Matt Paradis
RG: Andrew Norwell
RT: Alejandro Villanueva

Reserves:

QB2: Jacoby Brisset.
RB2: Peyton Barber
RB3: Gus Edwards
TE1: Will Dissly
WR5: KeeSean Johnson
TE2: Drew Sample
OL6: Ben Jones
OL7: Kelvin Beachum

Portland's 4-2-5 Defense:

DE: Dee Ford - (Q)
3T: Kawann Short - (Q)
DT: Michael Pierce 
DE: Whitney Mercilus
WLB: Jayon Brown    
MLB: Blake Martinez
CB1: Desmond Trufant
CB2: Logan Ryan
SCB: Brandon Facyson    
FS: Shawn Williams
SS: Malcolm Jenkins

Reserves:

SLB: Zach Brown 
RLB: Clay Matthews
CB4: Marcus Maye
CB5: Duke Dawson
S3: Daniel Sorensen
DE3: Vic Beasley
DT: DaQuan Jones
DL: Hassan Ridgeway

 

Oklahoma City EF5s

QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Allen Robinson
WR/TE: Mark Andrews (Q)
LT: David Bakhtiari
LG: Quinton Spain
C: Rodney Hudson
RG: Brandon Brooks
RT: Morgan Moses

WR: Emmanuel Sanders
WR: D.J. Moore
RB: Giovani Bernard
RB: Frank Gore
TE: Trey Burton
OT: Brian O'Neill
OG: D.J. Fluker

 

OLB: Von Miller
DT: Cameron Heyward
DT: Stephon Tuitt
OLB: Matt Judon
ILB: Lavonte David
LB/S: Jordan Poyer
CB: Marcus Peters
CB: Joe Haden
CB: Pierre Desir
FS: Malik Hooker
SS: Adrian Amos

OLB: Ryan Kerrigan
DL: Steve McLendon
DL: Margus Hunt
LB: Cory Littleton
LB: Dont'a Hightower
CB: Shaquill Griffin
CB: Fabian Moreau
S: Bradley McDougald

[ny92mike]

Portland Horned Owls

Motivation: It's week 3 of the BDL season and we're currently undefeated we look to continue that this week against one of the fiercest and most passionate teams in BDL. We've had a good start and we'd like to see that continue, plus division rivalry and all that. 

Portland Offensive Gameplan: It all starts in the passing game this week, we have to make plays early and often to keep OKC's defense on their toes and that starts with McCaffrey who we feel is a mismatch for OKC's LBs, the offense will flow through him and the WRs this week. We'll be going 4 wide (30% of the snaps-ish) for most of the game but that doesn't mean we won't use other formations

Formations: Shotgun, I-Form, 3 wide, 4 wide, 2 TE etc. We'll use a variety of formations. | Scheme:  Pass 55% compared to run 45%

The Passing Game: 

Patrick Mahomes will be given full command to make audibles along with making adjustments as required to effectively use our players to the best of their talents, as well as adjust protection if it is required. Now let's get to the match ups, I expect Adams will draw Peters coverage and he should be able to win that matchup given his ability to make contested catches if Adams is doubled frequently we'll look to our other play makers to make plays. That leaves Joe Haden to cover Mike Williams who Williams has a size advantage over, we'll target Williams in the red zone and in short yardage situations. Marvin Jones will man the 3rd WR position and will more than likely get matched up against Desir, he'll get a few targets here and there. That leaves our deep threat and homerun hitter, John Ross who came out of nowhere to have a career year in only 2 games he'll receive a few deep targets and some intermediate targets along with a screen or two to try and get him moving. 

McCaffrey of course will be used as a pass catcher and will command somewhere between 5-10 targets depending on game flow, Barber will mix in here and there to keep him fresh and we'll try to keep a balanced offense so OKC doesn't get blitz happy. 

With Njoku out due to a wrist injury we'll be using our WRs more often since while Dissly is a functional pass catcher (5-54-2 IRL last week) he's not as talented as Njoku and will mostly be relegated to a blocker, thus Jones+Ross will command more targets and will be used more often. We won't be targeting anyone's specific coverage given OKC doesn't really have any major issues on the backend aside from Hightower who isn't what he once was but our playmakers should be able to win their matchups and get open. 

No denying OKC has a fierce defense with some of the best pass rushers in BDL along with one of the best interior duos, but we feel our O-line is up to the task and should be able to win their matchups in the running game and pass blocking. As mentioned earlier Mahomes will adjust protection as needed and we will double Von on Occasion, he is a threat and will be given the appropriate attention whether that's via guard help, a RB/TE chip or them helping to block. 

The Running Game: 

McCaffrey will of course be receiving the majority of the carries but to keep him fresh expect an 80:20-ish split with Barber, we will go more run heavy than last week to keep OKC's pass rush at bay as well as leave more protection/use our RBs/TEs to help chip/block. 

The Blocking Unit: 

We'll execute blocking assignments as necessary, while our o-line has a tough task this week we are confident in their ability to block. In a pinch Ben Jones will plays C, Beachum plays OT, Kline plays OG etc. 

TDLR; 

Control the LOS, Win against DBs, make plays, no penalties, long drives, execute our assigments, finish in the redzone, score points etc. 

Portland Defensive Gameplan: Cover 1 man, Cover 3 zone with the focus of keeping OKC's passing game in check. Dominate the LOS and control the game from there, we expect our d-line to win and get after Stafford. 

Formations:  4-3 [Base Defense] / 4-2-5 [Nickel] along with other various formations that depend on down&distance&situation| Scheme: 40% man to 60% Zone coverage, Cover 1, Cover 3, Cover 2 etc. 

Pass Coverage: 

With some more injuries in the secondary this week we'll be shifting some players around Facyson will man the slot and Maye will move to the 4th CB slot ,we'll mostly be playing zone coverage and as for the coverage assignments for this game.Desmond Trufant will line up on the left side of the field in zone, he'll cover Thielen in man coverage and will occasionally cover the slot if Thielen is used there, Logan Ryan will man the right side in zone and will cover Woods in man.

We feel confident Trufant can keep Thielen in check and keep him from making plays, Brandon Facyson will man the 3rd CB spot and the slot, while Maye is traditionally a safety he's often used as a nickelback so he should be able to handle his assignments. Shawn Williams will be the FS replacing Reshad Jones who is out again this week and will make adjustments to the coverage if need be, he'll fill whatever role the coverage asks him to. Malcolm Jenkins will be tasked with being the SS who plays whatever role is alotted to him depending on the coverage he will also cover Mark Andrews if he is given significant targets.

There is no denying OKC has some very good playmakers but their o-line has some issues specifically at LG and we feel our pass rush can help mask our back seven's issues, I expect they'll use Mixon/Bernard/Gore in a committee unless Mixon proves he's healthy enough this week to get significant snaps. I expect OKC to take a lot of deep shots because they smell blood in the water and the style of offense they've run this season, so we'll shore up the backend as much as possible by playing zone more often this week and trust our DBs to not get beaten like drums. There's no denying OKC's offense will be able to move the chains through the air and but they're not going to have success through running it so they'll eventually become a one dimensional offense which will work to our advantage. 

In dime packages Blake Martinez remains on the field and he'll be the defensive signal caller for this game and make adjustments if needed, we'll also use more 6 DB packages when possible to help defend against OKC. 

Front Seven/Run Defense: 

It all depends on winning at the LOS and controlling the trenches on both sides of the ball here there is no denying OKC boasts a solid o-line, but we trust our front seven to be able to handle Mixon+Gore+Bernard in the running game, it sucks we lost Jackson and short is questionable but Pierce and the rest of our d-line should be able to handle the run game quite easily. Ford+Short+Pierce+Mercilus form one of the best d-lines in BDL and should be able to handle OKC's o-line, as well as free up our LBs to make the plays they need to. 

Their RBs aren't all that talented with Gordon holding out but they all have specialized roles and we'll be ready for that, Javon Brown draws the start at WLB and has quickly proven himself to be one of the Titan's best young LBs, we'll get after the QB as well but we won't be blitzing often (maybe 20% of the snaps) but we will play disciplined football and stay in our lanes. Stafford will obviously be the main chain mover for them so of course our defense will focus in on the passing game.

 

We'll rotate our DL+LBs+DBs etc as necessary to keep them fresh and change personnel for coverages /schemes/situations as needed, If Dee Ford doesn't suit up, Beasly and Matthews will rotate at DE if Short doesn't suit up DaQuan Jones will start in his place and will rotate with Ridgeway. 

The Pass Rush: 

Stafford is a veteran QB and has long proven he can put up yards with the best of them but like all QBs he is susceptible to being spooked by the pass rush. We'll take advantage of that by hitting him when possible (Obviously legal hits when he's a runner and when he holds onto the ball too long like he tends to do) I expect our edge rushers will be able to get some pass rush going against Bakhtiari given he's been injured recently as well as Moses who isn't that much to right home about. 

TDLR; Play good defense, control the LOS, dominate the running lanes, force turnovers, get after the QB, don't blitz often, contain Stafford and the running game, play smart football, mind the down&distance etc. 

 

Oklahoma City EF5s

It's that important time of the year where the contenders begin to separate themselves from the pack. There are only four teams that enter this week 2-0. One of them is allegedly tanking, another just lost its QB for a few weeks, and the other two are playing in this game. The winner of this game could very well be the lone undefeated team remaining and be in the driver's seat when it comes to the playoffs. We are fortunate to get this game at home as we seek to use our crowd's enthusiasm to give us an extra boost against one of the best teams in BDL.

Offense:

Portland comes into this week beat up on defense, and we plan on exploiting the weaknesses left behind by their injuries. We are going to accomplish this by spreading the field and attacking all levels of the field. We are going to come out throwing early and often and do our best to force Portland to win a shootout on the road against a more talented defense.

Spread formations will be a key concept for us again this week as Portland once again finds itself dangerously thin on cornerbacks. We are going to use multiple 4 and 5 wide formations with Mark Andrews lining up both in-line and out wide as well as Emmanuel Sanders and D.J. Moore rotating in as 4^th and 5^th wide receivers.

We are going to use a lot of motion and bunch formations in order to help identify coverage and isolate the lesser players in the Portland secondary. In our bunch formations, we want one receiver, which will often be Allen Robinson, lined up as the X receiver on one side of the field by himself. The remaining receivers will form a bunch on the opposite side. Due to several receivers on one side (or a motion from a typical spread to bunch), this will force Portland to declare man or zone coverage pre-snap. Against man, we expect Desmond Trufant and Logan Ryan to follow Adam Thielen and Robert Woods respectively. With Thielen and Woods in a bunch on one side, Portland will likely have Brandon Facyson or a lesser corner isolated on Robinson. Not only can we target Facyson relentlessly, but we can use pick and rub routes from our bunch formations to free one of our top receivers. Against zone, the bunch formations will allow us to flood zones and manufacture open receivers.

We also want to use 4 and 5 WR sets often in order to abuse Portland's secondary depth. With Portland only able to bring 4 corners to this game, we expect to find great matchups here. These formations will involve all combinations of our 5 listed WRs and Mark Andrews and feature motion and bunch concepts similar to our listed starting lineup.

We want to use the running game as a way to keep the defense honest and to punish aggressive pass rushing. Many of our run plays will be draws to play off of our pass heavy nature. When we do run normally, we'll focus on outside running away from Michael Pierce and either towards a side with few defenders (the side with our isolated X receiver) or one with many lead blockers similar to a screen. We will also run a couple of jet sweeps out of our five wide sets.

Joe Mixon will be our featured running back in this game. When passing, we want to use him on several outlet routes, often coming out in the open area on the side with our isolated X receiver. This will give Matthew Stafford an emergency option in the face of pressure as well as give Mixon the opportunity in space.

Kawaan Short is inactive this week and Dee Ford comes in as a game-time decision after being limited last week. This leaves Portland with a very thin and uninspiring defensive line. We trust our offensive line to hold up against this unit in five wide sets. We trust Stafford and Rodney Hudson to properly identify blitzes and handle them accordingly.

Defense:

On defense this week we are going to mix it up from our previous two weeks and use a man-coverage scheme. We are going to rush only four and split our coverage looks between Cover-1 and Cover-2 Man, with Adrian Amos rolling coverage to disguise our look. Our goals are to limit the amount of damage this offense can do and give our offense enough stops to win.

Marcus Peters will cover Davante Adams. Joe Haden will cover Mike Williams. Pierre Desir will cover Marvin Jones. If they go with four wide receivers, Shaq Griffin will come onto the field and cover John Ross. Fabian Moreau is available if Portland decides to use KeeSean Johnson at all in five wide sets.

Christian “McAffrey” is a focus of ours this week as an all-around threat. Because of McCaffrey's agility and ability to work in space, we are going to use Jordan Poyer this week as a safety on the LB level. Poyer will act as a spy on McCaffrey. Cory Littleton will play this role in more obvious running situations where we'd prefer a linebacker on the field. When McCaffrey is not on the field, Littleton will play at linebacker and cover Peyton Barber.

Adrian Amos plays a key role for us this week. We will split time between Cover-1 and Cover-2 shells with Amos being the difference in the two looks. In Cover-2 of course he will play the other half of the deep shell along with Malik Hooker. In Cover-1, he will play a robber role with a special eye on helping against McCaffrey. His most important role in this game is to disguise the look of our shell. Sometimes, he will line up deep and stay deep. Others, he'll line up deep and roll forward at the snap. Other times still, he'll line up in the box and roll into a Cover-2 shell. Occasionally, he'll line up in the box and stay there. Pat Mahomes is a phenomenal young QB, but we believe this simple wrinkle will keep him on his toes throughout the game and force a misread or two.

Hooker will play the center fielder role in Cover-1 and play one half of the deep zone in Cover-2. When John Ross is in the game, we expect Hooker to respect his speed.

We're not going to do anything fancy with our pass rush this week as we respect Mahomes and want to keep as many in coverage as possible. We are going to rush four on mostly every down, bringing a blitz on a very rare occasion. Matt Judon gets the start this week on the edge, but Ryan Kerrigan will see plenty of snaps as part of our three man rotation. Von Miller will see the most snaps among them and have the freedom to choose how he wants to attack the Portland offensive line. We will rotate our defensive interior as well to keep Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt fresh for late in the game.

[Whicker]

Kawann Short inactive

[Xmad]

4 minutes ago, Whicker said:

Kawann Short inactive

I guess you could say we're short on d-line today. 

[TedLavie]

@Whicker who's out on 4 WR sets in your defensive lineups? David? 

[Whicker]

3 hours ago, TedLavie said:

@Whicker who's out on 4 WR sets in your defensive lineups? David? 

Assuming McCaffrey is still in the game, yes

[Xmad]

6 hours ago, Whicker said:

Assuming McCaffrey is still in the game, yes

Questionable choice given David is one of the few LBs capable of covering McCaffrey and is your best cover LB. 

[Whicker]

Just now, SwoleXmad said:

Questionable choice given David is one of the few LBs capable of covering McCaffrey and is your best cover LB. 

I'm assuming you haven't read my plan then

[Xmad]

2 minutes ago, Whicker said:

I'm assuming you haven't read my plan then

I've probably read it at least 5 times trying to find nitpicks to point out and this is the closest I've gotten to one. Poyer's a fine DB but I don't think he's a better guy to cover McCaffrey given how good David is. 

[Whicker]

1 minute ago, SwoleXmad said:

I've probably read it at least 5 times trying to find nitpicks to point out and this is the closest I've gotten to one. Poyer's a fine DB but I don't think he's a better guy to cover McCaffrey given how good David is. 

That’s fine but I disagree. Safeties are always going to be better in space than linebackers and any DB is going to understand routes and coverage better also. I’m not worried about size nearly as much as I would be with a TE. I also have Amos helping on roughly half the plays. Also also Poyer has been very good on his own right for 3 years now  

Also also also, don’t sleep on Littleton  

[Ragnarok]

I think OKC game planned this one just about perfectly, especially taking into account the Portland injuries.  Short is a huge absence.  I think they could have used Littleton a bit more actually as he is very capable in coverage, but aside from that, they do enough to get the win at home.

[TedLavie]

As for the Rome game I'm not a fan of OKC super light lineup. They have between one and two safeties at the second level to stop one of the best backs in the NFL and Portland actually planned on running the ball. That combined with the Mahomes cheat code and I think they have a hard time stopping Portland offense. 

On the other side though I really like OKC plan offensively and I think they dominate. Plus they have the advantage in the trenches as I believe their OL can handle Portland pass rush. Having Mixon healthy is a big boost too.

I think it's a wild shootout like 41-38 but I believe Portland has the more balanced approach and in the end I trust Mahomes and McCaff to make a play more than I trust Staff and OKC skill players. So 41-38 Portland 

[bcb1213]

Hmm 

Okc not playing a lb will probably lead to some chunk run plays and putting Andrews out wide and then trying to run outside without their tight end edge against a team playing zone probably won't work (Jones has played surprisingly well so the short injury isn't too impaxtful in my eyes). Also Joe Haden shouldn't be starting at this juncture. Judging from rosters I would have went OKC but 

 

Portland 27-21

 

 

 

[Jlash]

This game is 100% a shootout. I agree the light lineup could be trouble but it's not exactly like Portland is bringing a power run game. McCaffrey is the man but it's not like he's bulldozing fools out here. On the other hand, Portland's injuries force sub par players into this match, and that could lead to a mistake or two down the stretch and change the game.

 

OKC 35-31