Your 2019 MVP: Russell Wilson

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, iknowcool said:

I get Russell Wilson, but how are people putting guys like Watson over McCaffrey?  I could get it if McCaffrey was simply having an All-Pro campaign but...

Watson is on pace for... 70%, 32 passing TDs (6.0), 270 YPG, ~8-9 INTs (1.7), 8.1 Y/A (8.5 AY/A), 107.1 QB Rating.  ~8-9 rushing touchdowns.  A great season, obviously.  With that said,

McCaffrey is on pace for... 1760 rushing yards (110 YPG), 20 rushing TDs, 5.3 YPC, 84 receptions, 726 receiving yards, 6 receiving TDs, 2486 YFS (2nd all-time, off-pace from 1st place by 23 yards).  26 total TDs puts him tied for 4th all-time.  

Obviously there's a chance McCaffrey falls off pace, but ditto for Watson as well.  And I guess people can make the argument, "well, would you trade Watson/QB for CMC", but by that logic, is Matt Ryan also a superior MVP candidate?  The Texans and Panthers essentially have the same record anyway (Texans haven't had a bye yet).  So if it isn't because of McCaffrey adding as much value to the team as Watson, then do we agree the Panthers are just that much better than the Texans sans QB?

And nothing against Watson either.  Like I said, great season.  But if damn near everyone can agree AD deserved it in 2012, then I don't see how the season Watson is having would put him over McCaffrey.  McCaffrey is on track for one of the best offensive seasons in NFL history, and that isn't an exaggeration.

In addition to what @AFlaccoSeagulls stated it’s also because at the rate of this MVP conversation it’s about breaking records at this point. Wilson is on pace to break the TD pass/Int ratio and is carrying a below average team to a playoff contender status atm... this is his claim to fame.

 

Lamar Jackson is on pace for his rushing attack, that was 31st overall after 9 games last season that when switching to him and Gus Edwards with the same personnel averaged over 200 yards/game to close out the season... in 2019 that same OL personnel with the addition of Ingram is on pace to shatter the single season rushing attack.

- Another record he’s leading an offense that is averaging over 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing per game... that has ALSO never happened in NFL history

- Another record he is on pace to shatter Michael Vick’s single season rushing record of 1039 yards by over 233 rushing yards.

- Jackson’s offense is number one in Yards per drive, points per drive, and drive success rate... all three top indicators for judging an offense’s dominance when they have the ball in hand.

 

 

So while CMC is having a great year and while his #2 pace for all purpose yards and his #4 pace for all purpose TDs would NORMALLY give him a legit shot at winning the MVP, he’s up against some of the stiffest competition we’ve seen. Especially when you consider that CMC’s claim to fame is his dual nature ability and you have a QB who possesses great dual threat ability than CMC can conjure. As Whats more important receiving the ball or passing the ball?

CMC at 726 and 6 would have made him about the 50th best receiver in the 2018 season. Even if you add the additional 500 yards CMC is projected to have over Lamar to his receiving you have the 16th ranked WR. Lamar’s passing numbers generally have him as about the 13th best QB. I’m sure most non-biased fans would rather take the 13th ranked QB over the 16th ranked receiver.

And this last point isn’t even considering the historical impact value that Lamar has added to the rest of his team, these are just considering the singular statistical impact that these players bring to the table alone. So no way you slice it would CMC have a greater claim to MVP than Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson. The things he’s on pace to do have already been done before (albeit very rarely), these other guys are on pace to do things we’ve never seen.

 

In terms of Deshaun Watson over CMC, I think that is all about the impact a player brings to his offense that transcends simple statistical relevance. Remove CMC from the Panthers and insert an average RB, say Phillip Lindsay, the Panthers likely lose 2 more games to this point this season. Replace Watson with say Phillip Rivers and that team likely loses 4 more games this season. Thus regardless of the tear CMC is on he’s just not as impactful as Watson in my estimation. Which is why I personally would have CMC in 4th place behind Watson. And arguably in 5th place behind Rodgers.

Though I would have him probably in 3rd place behind Lamar and Russ in my OPOY rankings.

[Billy86]

On 11/3/2019 at 8:17 PM, rocky_rams said:

Still can’t believe he [Russell Wilson] was drafted in the third round. 

Dude has no weakness is his game. Watson also reminds me of him.

I think Watson will be another QB who’s going to become great 

I have been watching the sport since 2002, but am from Ireland so never really get the time to watch college football due to time zones so I love the months leading into the draft where I get to find out about this whole new cast of characters I have never heard of before and while it obviously means I know way less about the players come draft day, it does also give a nice little bit of objectivity. And Russell Wilson remains, quite possible, the dumbest bit of drafting I have ever seen (in terms of those who passed up on him).

- His record and stats in college were supposed to be amazing, and at a glance on Wikipedia are right up there with RGIII/Luck who went no. 1 & no. 2 that year..
- He had a 'big arm' (another stupidly overrated attribute that teams just refuse to look away from), but also the vision to go through all his reads and not go for the big play all the time.
- His pocket presence if I recall, was deemed good though not great... but he also had the legs to make up for it, and that is a very coachable aspect.
- He was incredibly intelligent pre-snap and in general on the field. Added to this he was an excellent athlete (and has gone on to probably be the best QB at scrambling since Vick/until Lamar), the guy was the best of both worlds.
- He was an awesome locker room guy and a true, natural 'leader of men' that is so important at that position, all reports I remember were that he was bordering on perfect in this regard.
- He was also an excellent 'brand ambassador' type of guy, squeaky clean, ticked all the 'good Christian boy' boxes and so on and so on.

He was seemingly just about perfect, there was good as no knock on him at all. I remember reading a few times that he would be right in the mix with RGIII and Luck but for one thing... he was 2-3 inches too short. Like Bart Simpson auditioning for Radioactive Man.

I get that there are some advantages to QBs being a bit taller, and I could understand it being a tie-breaker that might have still seen the other two go ahead of him, but the fact that he slid all the way down to the 75th pick - for which several pundits criticized the Seahawks for taking him with - for no other reason than 2-3 inches of height, is an absolute farce.

And if this sounds like a homer post in favour of Wilson... hell no! I'm a Packers fan. The guy has f***ing haunted me all decade, and his Seahawks snapped the 2010-14 Packers shot at a dynasty over it's leg like Bane with Batman. 

 

Anyway, sorry just had to run off on that rant for a moment! 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Billy86

[iknowcool]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12

5 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

In addition to what @AFlaccoSeagulls stated it’s also because at the rate of this MVP conversation it’s about breaking records at this point. Wilson is on pace to break the TD pass/Int ratio and is carrying a below average team to a playoff contender status atm... this is his claim to fame.

 

Lamar Jackson is on pace for his rushing attack, that was 31st overall after 9 games last season that when switching to him and Gus Edwards with the same personnel averaged over 200 yards/game to close out the season... in 2019 that same OL personnel with the addition of Ingram is on pace to shatter the single season rushing attack.

- Another record he’s leading an offense that is averaging over 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing per game... that has ALSO never happened in NFL history

- Another record he is on pace to shatter Michael Vick’s single season rushing record of 1039 yards by over 233 rushing yards.

- Jackson’s offense is number one in Yards per drive, points per drive, and drive success rate... all three top indicators for judging an offense’s dominance when they have the ball in hand.

 

 

So while CMC is having a great year and while his #2 pace for all purpose yards and his #4 pace for all purpose TDs would NORMALLY give him a legit shot at winning the MVP, he’s up against some of the stiffest competition we’ve seen. Especially when you consider that CMC’s claim to fame is his dual nature ability and you have a QB who possesses great dual threat ability than CMC can conjure. As Whats more important receiving the ball or passing the ball?

CMC at 726 and 6 would have made him about the 50th best receiver in the 2018 season. Even if you add the additional 500 yards CMC is projected to have over Lamar to his receiving you have the 16th ranked WR. Lamar’s passing numbers generally have him as about the 13th best QB. I’m sure most non-biased fans would rather take the 13th ranked QB over the 16th ranked receiver.

And this last point isn’t even considering the historical impact value that Lamar has added to the rest of his team, these are just considering the singular statistical impact that these players bring to the table alone. So no way you slice it would CMC have a greater claim to MVP than Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson. The things he’s on pace to do have already been done before (albeit very rarely), these other guys are on pace to do things we’ve never seen.

 

In terms of Deshaun Watson over CMC, I think that is all about the impact a player brings to his offense that transcends simple statistical relevance. Remove CMC from the Panthers and insert an average RB, say Phillip Lindsay, the Panthers likely lose 2 more games to this point this season. Replace Watson with say Phillip Rivers and that team likely loses 4 more games this season. Thus regardless of the tear CMC is on he’s just not as impactful as Watson in my estimation. Which is why I personally would have CMC in 4th place behind Watson. And arguably in 5th place behind Rodgers.

Though I would have him probably in 3rd place behind Lamar and Russ in my OPOY rankings.

What kind of argument is this?

You say MVP is about breaking records... which CMC is doing but somehow you twist it to somehow being less impressive than Jackson (who you don't even list a record for) and Wilson.

Then for Watson, realizing he isn't breaking any records... just come up with some random reasoning.

Like bro.  I know the MVP is about breaking records.  What do you think he's been doing?

But yeah, I guess being on pace for #2 YFS all time and #4 TDs all time is somehow less impressive than Watson or Jackson lol

[diamondbull424]

8 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

Give me a list of all the RBs in NFL history who have put up the per-game averages McCaffrey is doing right now since it is so easy to throw another RB out there to replicate it.

Were players like Barry Sanders and LDT easily replaceable too?

You apt left out Priest Holmes who over three years averaged 2189 and 20 TDs. His highest outputs being 27 TDs and 2287 yards.

Guess what, the Chiefs replaced his production with Larry Johnson who went for 2100 yds and 20 TD averaged over the following two seasons.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

16 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

Give me a list of all the RBs in NFL history who have put up the per-game averages McCaffrey is doing right now since it is so easy to throw another RB out there to replicate it.

Were players like Barry Sanders and LDT easily replaceable too?

I mean I just gave you like 3 very good examples of RB's who stepped in to replace top-5 backs and nothing really changed. Heck, even last year during the playoffs freaking CJ Anderson gets signed off the street for Todd Gurley and puts up RB1 stats.

McCaffrey is a victim of how the RB position is viewed, because it's been proven repeatedly that you can plug and play anyone at that position and have success. Now, whether or not that's fair to McCaffrey as a player is another conversation but in reality he's just not in the MVP conversation right now because there are QB's having better seasons at a MUCH more important position. McCaffrey is basically a lock for OPOY though, if that's any consolation. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[iknowcool]

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean I just gave you like 3 very good examples of RB's who stepped in to replace top-5 backs and nothing really changed. Heck, even last year during the playoffs freaking CJ Anderson gets signed off the street for Todd Gurley and puts up RB1 stats. 

You said it would be easy to throw any RB out there to replicate the numbers McCaffrey is putting.  So I'm asking for a list of every player who has put up CMC's per game averages.

[iknowcool]

5 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

You apt left out Priest Holmes who over three years averaged 2189 and 20 TDs. His highest outputs being 27 TDs and 2287 yards.

Guess what, the Chiefs replaced his production with Larry Johnson who went for 2100 yds and 20 TD averaged over the following two seasons.

What are you talking about?  I listed 2 random all-time RBs because he said all-time production by a RB is essentially replaceable.  What does Holmes have to do with anything?

And the Chiefs had an all-time great offensive line.  So yeah it's easy to replace all-time level production when you have that.  So not sure what point you think you are proving.

How well did the Lions replace Sanders?  How long until the Chargers replaced LDT?  What about the Bears replacing Payton?  What about the Cowboys replacing Emmitt?  How's the Bears running game been post-Forte, sans one solid season by Howard?  Ya'll act like RB is the only position teams have replaced.  Panthers have always had great LBs.  Does that mean Kuechly is easily replaceable too?

But fine.  Give me a list of RBs all-time who have averaged what CMC has since his production isn't hard to replace.

Edited November 8, 2019 by iknowcool

[patriotsheatyan]

IMO a slightly better than average QB is worth as much as McCaffrey right now. The difference in positional value is too much.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

You said it would be easy to throw any RB out there to replicate the numbers McCaffrey is putting.  So I'm asking for a list of every player who has put up CMC's per game averages.

Nobody is putting up his numbers, but does that mean he can't be replaced in that same offense? Again, it's been proven over and over that RB's can be replaced. Alvin Kamara was putting up video game stats and Latavius Murray just stepped in and basically out did him in two games. Who is to say that if McCaffrey gets injured a RB off the street doesn't step up and repeat his production or come close to it?

Just now, iknowcool said:

What are you talking about?  I listed 2 random all-time RBs because he said all-time production by a RB is essentially replaceable.  What does Holmes have to do with anything?

And the Chiefs had an all-time great offensive line.  So yeah it's easy to replace all-time level production when you have that.  So not sure what point you think you are proving.

How well did the Lions replace Sanders?  How long until the Chargers replaced LDT?  What about the Bears replacing Payton?  What about the Cowboys replacing Emmitt?  How's the Bears running game been post-Forte, sans one solid season by Howard?  Ya'll act like RB is the only position teams have replaced.  Panthers have always had great LBs.  Does that mean Kuechly is easily replaceable too?

Why are you comparing MLB's to RB's?

[iknowcool]

Just now, patriotsheatyan said:

IMO a slightly better than average QB is worth as much as McCaffrey right now. The difference in positional value is too much.

So what additional value has Watson brought to the Texans that only has them at 6-3 vs Panthers 5-3?  Or do you agree the Panthers are just that much more talented than the Texans, considering they have a borderline elite QB (and you say an average one alone is worth as much as McCaffrey) and yet aren't better than us?

[iknowcool]

 

 

 

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Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Who is to say that if McCaffrey gets injured a RB off the street doesn't step up and repeat his production or come close to it?

Because it's foolish to suggest a RB off the street could come in and be on pace to set the #2 most YFS yards and #4 most TDs of all-time.

How is this even a serious question?  You are suggesting a season we haven't seen since 2006 LDT and 99-01 Faulk could easily be replaced by a RB off the street.  And you don't see how, no offense, dumb that sounds?

If you think CMC shouldn't be in the MVP race because he's a RB, fine, I get it.  It's a matter of how we view the league and it's clear I value RBs higher than 99% of this forum, I've come to realize that.  But you are seriously underestimating what CMC is doing if you think some random RB could do it.

[iknowcool]

My point in asking you to list #s is because if CMC's production can easily be replaced by a RB off the street, as you say, then why aren't there more 2000 YFS and 20 TD seasons in NFL history?

EDIT - Also weird how Ravens fans are propping Jackson up in the MVP convo by making it seem like CMC’s rushing contributions aren’t important lol that’s wild.  Jackson is only even in this debate for his rushing, and I see far more RBs have 1300 seasons than they do CMC seasons.  

Edited November 8, 2019 by iknowcool

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Has there been a runner that has scored around 20 touchdowns without at least decent QB play? Off the top of my head I'm thinking Smith, Holmes, Tomlinson, and Faulk having more than adequate QB play to help them get in position to accumulate those big TD numbers. CMC is doing it with Kyle Allen, which is pretty remarkable. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by PapaShogun

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

12 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

Because it's foolish to suggest a RB off the street could come in and be on pace to set the #2 most YFS yards and #4 most TDs of all-time.

How is this even a serious question?  You are suggesting a season we haven't seen since 2006 LDT and 99-01 Faulk could easily be replaced by a RB off the street.  And you don't see how, no offense, dumb that sounds?

If you think CMC shouldn't be in the MVP race because he's a RB, fine, I get it.  It's a matter of how we view the league and it's clear I value RBs higher than 99% of this forum, I've come to realize that.  But you are seriously underestimating what CMC is doing if you think some random RB could do it.

History has proven that any random RB can replace any other RB. Whether or not that current RB is doing something historic is irrelevant. Le'Veon Bell's production was historic, James Conner steps right in and does the same thing. You have all these dudes doing incredible things, but as soon as they get hurt or whatever, some other guys steps in and nothing is missed.

9 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

EDIT - Also weird how Ravens fans are propping Jackson up in the MVP convo by making it seem like CMC’s rushing contributions aren’t important lol that’s wild.  Jackson is only even in this debate for his rushing, and I see far more RBs have 1300 seasons than they do CMC seasons.  

Nobody is saying his rushing contributions aren't important. People are saying the RB position as a whole isn't important, and they're right. Jackson's in this conversation because not only is he having a good year and just demolished the #1 defense in Prime Time, he's on pace to shatter multiple QB records - not "#2 and #4 all time" records, #1 all time records - at the most important position.

EDIT: Again, I think the crux of the issue here is you don't think it's fair that RB's aren't considered important, and that's valid but guess what? The NFL has shown that RB's aren't important, so when you argue about MVP with a RB, that's what you're gonna get.

Edited November 8, 2019 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[iknowcool]

 

 

 

 

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

History has proven that any random RB can replace any other RB.

I said CMC is on pace for #2 YFS and #4 TDs all-time.  You said that is easily replaceable and replicable because he's a RB.  So please show me the history that has proven RBs have stepped in and easily replaced and replicated that or otherwise, you are just making blanket statements.

I didn't know a RB coming in and playing well = replacing and replicating historical numbers.  I guess Matt Moore has easily replaced Patrick Mahomes then.

I don't know why a hypothetical scenario of some random RB coming in and playing well for CMC in his absence means anything.  Matt Cassel played well for Brady, does that take away from Brady's 2007 season?  No, of course it doesn't.  So why should a hypothetical scenario matter?  It's the production we are focusing on.

And really?  "Jackson is on pace to shatter #1 all-time records", as if that isn't just exclusive to QBs.  You are telling me that 1300 rushing yards from a QB impress you more than 2480 scrimmage yards (#2 all-time among all players) and 26 TDs (#4 all-time among all players)?