Weekly Bets Thread

[SmittyBacall]

On 12/31/2021 at 3:27 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Two lines from the KC@CIN game that stick out:

Travis Kelce over 68.5 receiving yards -110 - Cincinnati pass defense is struggling mightily over the middle right now as we continue to lack pass rush, and the run defense remains above average. Tight ends especially have been almost unstoppable against us. Last week Mark Andrews laid 8 rec, 125 yards, and a TD with Josh Johnson at the helm. A week before that @DEN, Fant and Okwuegbunam combined 8 rec for 115 yards. A week before that Kittle went off for 13 rec, 151 yards and a TD. It’s safe to say Kelce will have his way with out LBs/safeties this week in what has shootout potential. 4 units. 

Joe Burrow over 5.5 rushing yards -110 - As Joe gets healthier and regains trust back in his knee and mobility, he’s been taking off more. He was proven to be a very capable runner at LSU and during his rookie year is now regaining that form. He rushed once for 11 yards last week vs BAL in a blowout, and 5 times for 25 yards @DEN a week before that in a grind game. With a win and we’re in scenario now unfolding, I expect Joe to treat this as a playoff game and put his body more on the line if/when the opportunity presents itself. He can easily hit this in one run. 2 units.

More to come later…

Looks like we got burned on the COVID return for Kelce. Seemed he didn’t play his usual workload of snaps, and Bell and co. saw lots of his targets. He had a 20+ yard catch brought back by a penalty, and dropped another 12+ yard catch. Disappointing effort.

Burrow’s rushing effort helped mitigate the heavy Kelce loss. 

[11sanchez11]

I lost every single bet I placed today. Only one left is AZ ML.

[SmittyBacall]

On 12/31/2021 at 4:35 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Adding:

Matthew Stafford over 2.5 passing touchdowns +175 - For the same reason Burrow can throw for 4 TDs and 527 yards, BAL will once again trot out their practice squad vets to cover one of the most dangerous passing attacks in football. BAL also remains one of the best rush defense groups in football, making this a pass funnel opportunity. Good bet at these odds for someone who has hit this in 8 of 15 games. 1 unit.

I mean, who saw that coming? Even with practice squad corners, Baltimore‘s defense dominated. 

No matter, I’m taking that bet every time.

[braylon]

So I’ve gotta place 3 more SGP’s tonight on DK to qualify for a $100 free bet.. I’m definitely going to do that. Anyone have any props they like? Not worried if it’s just a lean. Just gotta find a few plays I like and try to hit one of the 3 parlays to cover the cost of the others lol.

[Broncofan]

Before I complete the daytime slate putting Aaron Rodgers O2.5 pass TD +140 for 2U.   
 

Ihmir Smith-Marsette & Dede Westbrook TD props for +1400 / +12500 2+ 0.6U / 0.1U each. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I mean, who saw that coming? Even with practice squad corners, Baltimore‘s defense dominated. 

No matter, I’m taking that bet every time.

3 TD is no better than a 50-50 prop, maybe a little better.  But if you get +180 the value is there.   Way it goes.  

[Broncofan]

On 1/1/2022 at 9:40 AM, Broncofan said:

OK the full Week 17 Sunday card...

ATS/ML/RACE

I was really interested in DET over SEA, until Goff was declared doubtful, and DEN's injuries make them a sitting duck for LAC.   Honestly, it's a terrible dog card this week - and yet, I know there's going to be 3-4 dogs that cover minimum, if don't win outright - I just can't see where, so I'm also going to veer off a little, and do a ML parley instead for my small longshot play (added to the 1 I had going from MNF).  My initial leans where upsets were most likely were CIN-KC, MIA-TEN (but I sided with TEN in end, so I just didn't bet), DET-SEA (here the Goff injury changed my mind) & TAM-NYJ (don't laugh), so I took the 12-team ML parley with Georgia -7.5... anyways, on to the single bets, unusually dog-light:

 

EARLY

CIN ML +180, RACE to 20/25/30 0.5U (+200 / +350 / +550) - decided to take the dive today.    Logan Wilson is playing, and I envision this much like the LAC-KC game.    I think it's a 50-50 prop, so I'll go with the dog money - the RACE has more value IMO because if CIN wins the game, it's way more likely they take a lead that they don't give up, rather than come back.  

LAR -3.5 @ BAL (now -5) - the total lack of BAL secondary makes this a 7+ pt win IMO in a TO neutral game.   Why I'm was willing to go past the 3-pt threshold when lines came out on Tuesday.

PHI -3 @ WFT (now -5) - another one I took on Tuesday, and wanted to get in b4 the line moved.   Gibson/OL news moved it hard.

LATE

LAC -6 vs. DEN (now -7.5) 4U - been pimping this since the first news of a DEN Covid wave hit - now it's finally getting there.     A little disappointed it hasn't moved more, but I get the QB won't change with Lock being positive for Covid before (but no RT, no WR's at all, no pass rush, run DL compromised, and 2/5 of our top cover DB's gone....1.5 pts is pretty low, even with crossing over past 7).

SNF

CLE -3 @ PIT - I know Big Ben's last home game is very likely happening here.   CLE is just that much better of a team, and PIT having no run D and trouble protecting Ben is an awful matchup.   Baker could go -2 or worse to make this close, but as long as it's within 3, I'm comfortable here.

That's 9.5U on ATS/ML/RACE plays, with 4U on LAC -6 (don't burn me again LAC/DEN lol).  I also have a 0.5U on Georgia -7.5 / LAR / CHI / PHI / IND / BUF / NE / LAC / DAL / SF / NO / GB / CLE 13-leg for 40-1 (greasy, greasy, greasy lol), and a 0.5U one from last MNF of MIA -3 MNF (hit) / DAL NBA ML (hit) / Georgia -7 (hit) / TEN / PHI / CIN (big one) / LAR for +7000.... so that's 10.5U in total.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Did the player props, no new ones out, but so it's all in 1 spot:

EARLY

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM:   Matt Stafford O2.5 pass TD +180 2U - @SmittyBacall mentioned this before, but I've been stuck with my book at O1.5 at -230 until tonight.   It's the BAL pass D, their run D is far tougher to play against, this is no better than a 50-50 prop, but we're getting a 35 percent prob payout.   Easy call here.

Tua Tagovailoa O1.5 pass TD's +110 - TEN's a pass funnel D, and at plus money, I'll definitely go here.

Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +150 - there's risk always that the run TD is how PHI scores.  But as we saw with DAL-WFT, pass is how you exploit their D the most.

Dallas Goedert @51.5 rec yards 2U - agree with @NYRaider's call on Goedert, this is a 75+ yard projection I have, so worth 2U.

Jaylen Waddle O6.5 rec +110 2U - same reasoning as @SaveOurSonics gave, can't really add much except the rec prop is now +110, so better payout, and equal odds IMO.

Joe Mixon O15.5 rec yards - KC's D promotes short area passes, so this one's an easy one to take IMO

Travis Kelce O69.5 rec yards - already moved up, and will continue to move up.   Windy day, even more short area stuff, that's Kelce

LATE

Kyler Murray O30.5 rush yards - I expect this will be needed with DAL's pass rush and ARI's issues in getting guys open at the WR spot, along with another prop

Ezekiel Elliott O53.5 rush yards - ARI's so vulnerable to the run, I expected this to be O70.5 or more with DAL expected to win.  

Ceedee Lamb O62.5 rec yards - ditto on reasoning given by @SaveOurSonics

Zach Ertz O53.5 rec yards 2U - the one area where DAL D will willingly give up catches, but no catch prop yet.

That's 15U on player props, plus I have a 0.5U parley on Hurts O1.5 TD +150 / Goedert O51.5 rec yards / Waddle O6.5 recs +110 / Mixon O15.5 rec yards / Kelce O69.5 rec yards / Ertz O53.5 rec yards for +7500. So that's 15.5U in total.   YOLO!

 

LONGSHOT TD's

A whole bunch of longshot TD props this week:

Stephen Anderson +600 TD / +7500 2+ (0.7U / 1U) - the only TE left in LAC besides McKitty (Cook/Parham both out).   Will definitely be in there on RZ plays, at least on 1st/2nd down.  The odds are already down to +300 today.  

Lil' Jordan Humphrey +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.7U / 0.1U) - their functional big slot/move TE (Trautman back to take inline work).

Rashad Higgins +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.7U / 0.1U) - the top RZ WR IMO in CLE.   DPJ gets the long-shot stuff, and Landry doesn't win as easily here.  Higgins got stopped at the 1 last week, otherwise he'd be much lower this week.

Harrison Bryant +1200 TD / +12500 2+ (0.6U / 0.1) - yes CLE has all 3 TE's back, but even then Bryant sees 40 percent of snaps, and more RZ looks than Njoku.   So the value here is worth a shot.

Irhim Smith Marsette +1400 / +12500 (0.6U / 0.1U) - this could be an inactive, in which case I pivot to Dede Westbrook (who's priced similarly).  One of these 2 guys is the WR3, so the value is just too good.

Noah Gray +1200 TD (0.6U) - KC still throws to 2nd TE near RZ, so those odds are too good with CIN's TE D.

Eric Saubert +2000 TD (now +1400 - 0.6U) - DEN used a lot of 3-TE vs. LAC and threw on PA - so the chances they could do that here if they can get the ball near the RZ are pretty high.    Fant is +200 and Albert O is +375, and I get why - but given the fact we'll be missing our top 3 WR's, wouldn't suprise me to see Saubert get a 30+ percent snap share like he did in 1st game.

That's 5.0U on TD props, so hoping at least 1 hits - and if a 2-TD or 2+ guys hit, it's profit time. 

 

This makes a total of 31.0U on the line this Sunday.....BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 16 

ATS 52-42; 13-18 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +78.0U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win). 

Player props - 152-146, +40.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-74 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +34.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +152.6U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 up to Sunday - +29.3U)

Quote

That's 9.5U on ATS/ML/RACE plays, with 4U on LAC -6 (don't burn me again LAC/DEN lol).  I also have a 0.5U on Georgia -7.5 / LAR / CHI / PHI / IND / BUF / NE / LAC / DAL / SF / NO / GB / CLE 13-leg for 40-1 (greasy, greasy, greasy lol), and a 0.5U one from last MNF of MIA -3 MNF (hit) / DAL NBA ML (hit) / Georgia -7 (hit) / TEN / PHI / CIN (big one) / LAR for +7000.

 

Well had pretty much an even-up day single-bet wise - but for the 2nd week in a row, hit 1 of my 3 0.5U parleys, this one MIA-3 (last MNF) / DAL NBA ML (hit) / Georgia NCAAF -7 (hit) / TEN / PHI / LAR / CIN for +7000 - for a 34.0U win (subtract the other 2 losing parleys)!   Gotta say I thought both CIN and LAR were almost dead in the water in the 3Q...but that's sometimes the benefit of the ML plays when you do use a parley.    

On to the day slate tally....

Edited January 3, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 1/1/2022 at 9:40 AM, Broncofan said:

OK the full Week 17 Sunday card...

ATS/ML/RACE

I was really interested in DET over SEA, until Goff was declared doubtful, and DEN's injuries make them a sitting duck for LAC.   Honestly, it's a terrible dog card this week - and yet, I know there's going to be 3-4 dogs that cover minimum, if don't win outright - I just can't see where, so I'm also going to veer off a little, and do a ML parley instead for my small longshot play (added to the 1 I had going from MNF).  My initial leans where upsets were most likely were CIN-KC, MIA-TEN (but I sided with TEN in end, so I just didn't bet), DET-SEA (here the Goff injury changed my mind) & TAM-NYJ (don't laugh), so I took the 12-team ML parley with Georgia -7.5... anyways, on to the single bets, unusually dog-light:

 

EARLY

CIN ML +180, RACE to 20/25/30 0.5U (+200 / +350 / +550) - decided to take the dive today.    Logan Wilson is playing, and I envision this much like the LAC-KC game.    I think it's a 50-50 prop, so I'll go with the dog money - the RACE has more value IMO because if CIN wins the game, it's way more likely they take a lead that they don't give up, rather than come back.  

LAR -3.5 @ BAL (now -5) - the total lack of BAL secondary makes this a 7+ pt win IMO in a TO neutral game.   Why I'm was willing to go past the 3-pt threshold when lines came out on Tuesday.

PHI -3 @ WFT (now -5) - another one I took on Tuesday, and wanted to get in b4 the line moved.   Gibson/OL news moved it hard.

LATE

LAC -6 vs. DEN (now -7.5) 4U - been pimping this since the first news of a DEN Covid wave hit - now it's finally getting there.     A little disappointed it hasn't moved more, but I get the QB won't change with Lock being positive for Covid before (but no RT, no WR's at all, no pass rush, run DL compromised, and 2/5 of our top cover DB's gone....1.5 pts is pretty low, even with crossing over past 7).

SNF

CLE -3 @ PIT - I know Big Ben's last home game is very likely happening here.   CLE is just that much better of a team, and PIT having no run D and trouble protecting Ben is an awful matchup.   Baker could go -2 or worse to make this close, but as long as it's within 3, I'm comfortable here.

That's 9.5U on ATS/ML/RACE plays, with 4U on LAC -6 (don't burn me again LAC/DEN lol).  I also have a 0.5U on Georgia -7.5 / LAR / CHI / PHI / IND / BUF / NE / LAC / DAL / SF / NO / GB / CLE 13-leg for 40-1 (greasy, greasy, greasy lol), and a 0.5U one from last MNF of MIA -3 MNF (hit) / DAL NBA ML (hit) / Georgia -7 (hit) / TEN / PHI / CIN (big one) / LAR for +7000.... so that's 10.5U in total.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Did the player props, no new ones out, but so it's all in 1 spot:

EARLY

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM:   Matt Stafford O2.5 pass TD +180 2U - @SmittyBacall mentioned this before, but I've been stuck with my book at O1.5 at -230 until tonight.   It's the BAL pass D, their run D is far tougher to play against, this is no better than a 50-50 prop, but we're getting a 35 percent prob payout.   Easy call here.

Tua Tagovailoa O1.5 pass TD's +110 - TEN's a pass funnel D, and at plus money, I'll definitely go here.

Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +150 - there's risk always that the run TD is how PHI scores.  But as we saw with DAL-WFT, pass is how you exploit their D the most.

Dallas Goedert @51.5 rec yards 2U - agree with @NYRaider's call on Goedert, this is a 75+ yard projection I have, so worth 2U.

Jaylen Waddle O6.5 rec +110 2U - same reasoning as @SaveOurSonics gave, can't really add much except the rec prop is now +110, so better payout, and equal odds IMO.

Joe Mixon O15.5 rec yards - KC's D promotes short area passes, so this one's an easy one to take IMO

Travis Kelce O69.5 rec yards - already moved up, and will continue to move up.   Windy day, even more short area stuff, that's Kelce

LATE

Kyler Murray O30.5 rush yards - I expect this will be needed with DAL's pass rush and ARI's issues in getting guys open at the WR spot, along with another prop

Ezekiel Elliott O53.5 rush yards - ARI's so vulnerable to the run, I expected this to be O70.5 or more with DAL expected to win.  

Ceedee Lamb O62.5 rec yards - ditto on reasoning given by @SaveOurSonics

Zach Ertz O53.5 rec yards 2U - the one area where DAL D will willingly give up catches, but no catch prop yet.

That's 15U on player props, plus I have a 0.5U parley on Hurts O1.5 TD +150 / Goedert O51.5 rec yards / Waddle O6.5 recs +110 / Mixon O15.5 rec yards / Kelce O69.5 rec yards / Ertz O53.5 rec yards for +7500. So that's 15.5U in total.   YOLO!

 

LONGSHOT TD's

A whole bunch of longshot TD props this week:

Stephen Anderson +600 TD / +7500 2+ (0.7U / 1U) - the only TE left in LAC besides McKitty (Cook/Parham both out).   Will definitely be in there on RZ plays, at least on 1st/2nd down.  The odds are already down to +300 today.  

Lil' Jordan Humphrey +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.7U / 0.1U) - their functional big slot/move TE (Trautman back to take inline work).

Rashad Higgins +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.7U / 0.1U) - the top RZ WR IMO in CLE.   DPJ gets the long-shot stuff, and Landry doesn't win as easily here.  Higgins got stopped at the 1 last week, otherwise he'd be much lower this week.

Harrison Bryant +1200 TD / +12500 2+ (0.6U / 0.1) - yes CLE has all 3 TE's back, but even then Bryant sees 40 percent of snaps, and more RZ looks than Njoku.   So the value here is worth a shot.

Irhim Smith Marsette +1400 / +12500 (0.6U / 0.1U) - this could be an inactive, in which case I pivot to Dede Westbrook (who's priced similarly).  One of these 2 guys is the WR3, so the value is just too good.

Noah Gray +1200 TD (0.6U) - KC still throws to 2nd TE near RZ, so those odds are too good with CIN's TE D.

Eric Saubert +2000 TD (now +1400 - 0.6U) - DEN used a lot of 3-TE vs. LAC and threw on PA - so the chances they could do that here if they can get the ball near the RZ are pretty high.    Fant is +200 and Albert O is +375, and I get why - but given the fact we'll be missing our top 3 WR's, wouldn't suprise me to see Saubert get a 30+ percent snap share like he did in 1st game.

That's 5.0U on TD props, so hoping at least 1 hits - and if a 2-TD or 2+ guys hit, it's profit time. 

 

This makes a total of 31.0U on the line this Sunday.....BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 16 

ATS 52-42; 13-18 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +78.0U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win). 

Player props - 152-146, +40.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-74 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +34.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +152.6U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 up to Sunday - +29.3U)

OK along with the big 35U parley (2nd hit at +7000 or better in 2 weeks>(and only play 2-3 for less than 5 percent of my total bets>),  a reasonable day thanks to some weighted bets coming through...

ATS/ML/RACE - 3-1 ATS/ML with CIN +200 ML, and LAC -6 (at 4U was a pure gift, and yes, Covid-aided - but it was there for 3+ days at 6.5, too), and PHI -3.5.   LAR -3.5 was the only play that missed straight-up (thank goodness I took the ML in the parley lol).   RACE was 1-0 with CIN +550 to 30 hitting (20-25 missed), so that's a total profit of 8.3U profit in single bets alone here, with CLE -3 pending, but add the 7-leg parley, and it's a 42.3U profit (count the other 2 missed parleys here).

PLAYER PROPS - 3-8, going 1-2 on the 2U plays, so that means I'm -5.0U here.    The QB TD props killed me here, way it goes because they're all plus money, and 50-50 plays (or maybe 60-40, but at decent plus money).   

LONGSHOT TD - 0-5 (Higgins / Bryant still left MNF) no joy here, but they were all longshots.   So far, -4.0U with those 2 players pending.

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 17 NOT INCLUDING SNF/MNF 

ATS 55-43; 14-18 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +120.3U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 155-153, +31.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +30.7U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +182.7U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 to SNF - +31.1U)

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Broncofan
Added the SNF ARod O2.5 TD miss (unlucky there), and the 0-2 TD's (not really any chance) - thanks to 70-1 parley, still a great week....

[Broncofan]

BTW as I wait for A-Rod's 3rd pass TD to hopefully come in early on this drive, so I don't worry about blow-out game script kicking in, something that @SmittyBacall mentioned deserves repeating - players who return week 1 from Covid, I'd be more leery about. 

Tyreek Hill said he was gassed even in the 2Q.   Same for Keenan Allen.   Tyler Lockett was symptomatic, and lost 8 lbs.    And now Kelce.   I would also say while I didn't take any props for him or the pass game - can't help but notice Carson Wentz REALLY struggled in the 1H (and even his TD to TY Hilton was horribly underthrown, and then tipped by pure luck into TY's hands).

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's forever.  But I'm likely to stay away from COVID returnees in their first game back.   Show me they're truly unaffected first.   There's always the risk of a SSS effect, but we're getting enough players with the same underwhelming performances, it's more than a blip IMO.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

On 12/31/2021 at 12:05 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

Only thing holding me back from a bigger U play is the fact that Kelce is coming back from Covid and we've seen how detrimental that can be on a player's performance in their first game back (look no further than Tyreek Hill last week). 

Just saying. Ended up not playing Kelce at all because my book never released a receptions prop (I had another comment that I’d feel better about volume than yards from Kelce today). 

With that said, bad day of props for me anyways lol. Just a weird day of football tbh. 

Jaylen Waddle over ❌

CeeDee Lamb over ❌

Tee Higgins over ❌

Tyreek Hill over ❌

Taysom Hill under ❌

Ronald Jones over ❌

Joe Burrow over ✅

Dallas Goedert ✅

Matt Ryan under ✅

Sony Michel over ✅

With Waddle, Lamb, Higgins, RoJo, & Burrow all being 1.5U plays, it’s a -3.5U day. Thankful I stuck to my guns on avoiding 2U plays this week, otherwise it would’ve been worse. I’m actually fortunate to go 4-for-6 considering the Ryan & Michel bets were placed this morning just before kickoff. 

EDIT: Updated; original post omitted the Burrow rushing prop. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

For tomorrow, 4 back-to-basics props (1 ML, 3 player) & 2 holdover TD props:

CLE ML -110  EDIT MON noon - +130 2U, added RACE to 20/25 +180/+320 (0.5U) - I know CLE being eliminated takes away their playoff incentive, and Big Ben's last game at 3 Rivers is here.   But I'll back the better team, and hope that Baker doesn't screw this over with a 2+ TO differential.   If CLE leans on the run game, and keeps Baker out of trouble, I think they win something like 30-20.  EDIT:   Line's moved from -3 to +2, and now ML is +130 - crazy that it's all narrative driven.   Going 2U.

Jarvis Landry O4.5 catches - pretty simple, he's still a target hog.

Diontae Johnson O6.5 catches +110 - one thing Big Ben isn't doing - is handing off all game long.   And that's not how you attack CLE's D anyways.

Najee Harris U70.5 rush yards - this is a way of doubling my CLE ML bet - CLE is a tough run D to begin with, and I expect Big Ben to throw a lot.  But it's also an even better play if CLE does win, far less likely Harris gets here.

My TD props are unchanged from before:
 

Rashad Higgins +650 TD / +8000 2+ (0.7U/0.1U) - top WR target, not DPJ or Landry.  Tackled at 1 last game otherwise this would be at least +350 or lower.

Harrison Bryant +1200 TD / +12500 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - I get it, there are 2 TE's in front of him, but he actually gets 30+ percent of snaps, and more pass looks, he's actually ahead of Njoku in targets and RZ looks, but Njoku is +500.   

With the extra parley winnings, I can also add a 0.5U SGP of the CLE ML / Big Ben INT / Harris U70.5 rush yards / Harris O3.5 catches / Diontae O6.5 catches / Friermuth O30.5 rec yards / Landry O4.5 catches for +6000.   That makes this a total of 6.0U 8.0U in play for tomorrow - BOL!

Edited January 3, 2022 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

CLE ML -110 - I know CLE being eliminated takes away their incentive, and Big Ben's last game at 3 Rivers is here.   But I'll back the better team, and hope that Baker doesn't screw this over with a 2+ TO differential.   If CLE leans on the run game, and keeps Baker out of trouble, I think they win something like 30-20.

The line has moved from CLE -3.5 to +1.5 in the last 48 hours and continuing to move in Pittsburgh's direction. I'm going to wait to see how far it moves and likely take a CLE Race. 

[Malfatron]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

CLE ML -110 - I know CLE being eliminated takes away their incentive,

against pittsburgh, i dont think it does

 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said:

The line has moved from CLE -3.5 to +1.5 in the last 48 hours and continuing to move in Pittsburgh's direction. I'm going to wait to see how far it moves and likely take a CLE Race. 

Yeah literally nothing has changed to cause such a line shift except retirement narrative.    I’ll gladly take the movement.  

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, Malfatron said:

against pittsburgh, i dont think it does

 

It’s the only reasoning for the line movement.    But it’s flawed, and not just for the reason you correctly cite.    I’m not saying I agree with it but it has to be influencing public $ moving the line so hard.  We know it’s not going to be a slew of COVID announcements lol. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Broncofan