Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Disregard both my previous PIT & DAL calls - the Covid news today is likely going to be HUGE.   This is likely just the beginning for DAL, and no Diontae J and OL very possibly with more hits coming, is huge for PIT / BAL.    Actually going to go in my 6-leg with KC -9.5/ PHI +6.5 / WFT -7 / DET +4.5/ MIA ML / LAC -3 6-leg at +8200 0.5U (and LAC -3 allows me to hedge SNF if my 5 other legs hit).

 

 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Can’t stress enough that I don’t usually do this, but my book is offering a Weekly Futures that I can’t pas up. 

Zeke U1,000 rush yards on the season (-250)

He’d need 75+ yards to get there. He hasn’t done that in like 10 games. Tyron Smith out. Not a crucial seeding game for Dallas. Zeke has had fewer than 10 attempts in each of the last 2 weeks. 

Just feels like easy money, regardless of the juice. 

[SmittyBacall]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Can’t stress enough that I don’t usually do this, but my book is offering a Weekly Futures that I can’t pas up. 

Zeke U1,000 rush yards on the season (-250)

He’d need 75+ yards to get there. He hasn’t done that in like 10 games. Tyron Smith out. Not a crucial seeding game for Dallas. Zeke has had fewer than 10 attempts in each of the last 2 weeks. 

Just feels like easy money, regardless of the juice. 

Maybe wait and see what the rushing prop comes in at? If it comes in at a reasonable number just bet the prop at even odds. 

[SaveOurSonics]

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Maybe wait and see what the rushing prop comes in at? If it comes in at a reasonable number just bet the prop at even odds. 

I’m guessing the prop comes in somewhere in the mid 50s. By that time, -250 for 75 yards will feel like a bargain. 

I certainly see your point though. This number just feels like a slam dunk similar to Ben > Baker completions. I don’t mind paying for a play I love. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by SaveOurSonics

[N4L]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I don’t mind paying for a play I love. 

I am with you. There are times I will lay -180 or more on the ML during a playoff game 

I did a teaser with the under 46 NO/ATL, SF+10, KC-3 

I like the under in NO/ATL for a few reasons. NOs defense is fierce. That pass rush is going to wreck Matt Ryan because the falcons OL is a weakness. The falcons don't have the firepower on the outside to do much against NO. Pitts seems to be playing, but he hurt his hamstring, so I am not sure how limited he will be. The falcons defense has some nice pieces and they have played better recently. NO is lacking firepower as well and taysom hill forces them to stay committed to the run game, which should chew clock. 

There are a lot of different ways to play this chiefs game. Would love to hear @Broncofans thoughts. (EDIT - somehow I missed your post on the previous page, whoops) I thought about the under but the broncos are sitting surtain and Darby. That's huge because of how much Fangio relies on his corners in this scheme. Mahomes looks like he has found a rhythm and is both operating the offense by taking what the defense gives him, while also being the aggressive gun slinger by taking shots down field. 

On the other side it's drew lock and I feel like he's going to come out guns blazing because he will feel the pressure of his career, and also because he will know KC will put up points. KCs DL has been getting a lot of pressure recently and so I think the combination of all of those things should lead to some turnovers by the broncos offense. So the over KC team total is in play here as well as laying the points. 

Niners Rams is really interesting for a lot of reasons and 10 points is a lot, which is why I like it as a teaser leg. I don't expect a blowout either way. Should come down to the final play. 

I bet the niners win total over 10 for four figures this off-season. They have 9 wins. Would love to get this push after how this season went early - four game losing streak, two Seattle losses that both should have been wins, two Cardinals losses that should have been a split, a greenbay loss where we had the lead with 30s left but a rookie corner and DC figuratively dropped the ball, blew a double digit lead to the Titans lol this game should be for win 11, not win 10 for the push. Not really a great hedging spot 

Edited January 7, 2022 by N4L

[N4L]

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

-Players with records/incentives that are well past the O/U number

I dont know what these player props are, but here are some incentives I saw today:

Diggs needs 6 receptions for $1,550,000 against the Jets

Gronk needs 7 receptions or 85 yards for $500,000 each

6 catches for Diggs feels easy considering how much they throw and how they can force feed him the ball. Gronk getting 7 catches for 90 yards without Godwin and AB feels very achievable. His yardage prop wont be above 70 I dont think. Its January and typically that is when Brady-Gronk connection comes out in full force.

I am not sure what to do with this, but Mike Evans needs 54 yards to keep his 1000 yard season streak alive. He didnt play much last week with a hamstring injury, but apparently, he practiced fully on Thursday. Not financially related, but if his prop is in the 50s, might be worth a shot. If its in the 70s, I am staying away

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

-D'Onta Foreman O50.5 or better

one thing I like about this prop is that they wont be afraid to give him a lot of touches. Normally I would be worried he wouldnt get the volume for this, but when Henry comes back in the playoffs, Foreman wont be the lead back, so the titans wont need to feel like they need to limit his work load this week, especially with the bye looming

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Cooper Kupp O7.5 catches /99.5 yards or better

Jimmie ward is the Kupp eraser. Dude straight up erases people in coverage. No one gets loose on him. He is the niners FS but he plays man coverage in the slot a lot. Kupp has not had a lot of good games against the niners and there is a reason for it. Earlier in the year, Kupp got like 85 out of his 122 yards in garbage time when the niners were already up multiple scores and I dont think they had Ward lined up on him at that point

The problem is that Jimmy Ward is on the covid list and might miss the game. That would be huge for the rams and this prop bet. He may test out of it, but who knows at this point. We wont know until saturday. Niners also might get their third safety back, which would allow ward to play more man coverage against kupp in the event he does play 

Also - team have been attacking the niners defense recently by running max protect and having a few 2 man routes. Not sure how much the rams will do it, but with how stafford has played recently, it would make a ton of sense to try and make him feel comfortable. Our corners have been a weakspot, and WRs have been winning matchups given enough time. We may get our best corner, emannuel mosely back for this game after missing 5-6 games with an ankle injury, but we have our two next best corners (Ambry thomas, donte johnson) on the covid list as well, which means Josh Norman will probably start again, which ironically probably hurts Kupps props because of how likely he is to ruin a deep ball with DPI.

If the rams dont run a lot of max protect, they will need to get the ball out of staffords hands fast, which would absolutely help the catches prop here. 

So its a long winded way to say that this is probably a great bet given the circumstances but that you should monitor the niners covid situation and exercise some amount of caution if Ward comes back. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by N4L

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, N4L said:

I dont know what these player props are, but here are some incentives I saw today:

Diggs needs 6 receptions for $1,550,000 against the Jets

Gronk needs 7 receptions or 85 yards for $500,000 each

6 catches for Diggs feels easy considering how much they throw and how they can force feed him the ball. Gronk getting 7 catches for 90 yards without Godwin and AB feels very achievable. His yardage prop wont be above 70 I dont think. Its January and typically that is when Brady-Gronk connection comes out in full force.

I am not sure what to do with this, but Mike Evans needs 54 yards to keep his 1000 yard season streak alive. He didnt play much last week with a hamstring injury, but apparently, he practiced fully on Thursday. Not financially related, but if his prop is in the 50s, might be worth a shot. If its in the 70s, I am staying away

one thing I like about this prop is that they wont be afraid to give him a lot of touches. Normally I would be worried he wouldnt get the volume for this, but when Henry comes back in the playoffs, Foreman wont be the lead back, so the titans wont need to feel like they need to limit his work load this week, especially with the bye looming

Jimmie ward is the Kupp eraser. Dude straight up erases people in coverage. No one gets loose on him. He is the niners FS but he plays man coverage in the slot a lot. Kupp has not had a lot of good games against the niners and there is a reason for it. Earlier in the year, Kupp got like 85 out of his 122 yards in garbage time when the niners were already up multiple scores and I dont think they had Ward lined up on him at that point

The problem is that Jimmy Ward is on the covid list and might miss the game. That would be huge for the rams and this prop bet. He may test out of it, but who knows at this point. We wont know until saturday. Niners also might get their third safety back, which would allow ward to play more man coverage against kupp in the event he does play 

Also - team have been attacking the niners defense recently by running max protect and having a few 2 man routes. Not sure how much the rams will do it, but with how stafford has played recently, it would make a ton of sense to try and make him feel comfortable. Our corners have been a weakspot, and WRs have been winning matchups given enough time. We may get our best corner, emannuel mosely back for this game after missing 5-6 games with an ankle injury, but we have our two next best corners (Ambry thomas, donte johnson) on the covid list as well, which means Josh Norman will probably start again, which ironically probably hurts Kupps props because of how likely he is to ruin a deep ball with DPI.

If the rams dont run a lot of max protect, they will need to get the ball out of staffords hands fast, which would absolutely help the catches prop here. 

So its a long winded way to say that this is probably a great bet given the circumstances but that you should monitor the niners covid situation and exercise some amount of caution if Ward comes back. 

I think Diggs will be O7.5.   I'd still go there.    Gronk I absolutely love as well, it got lost in all the AB drama.  That's going to likely be a 2-4U play.

Re: SF DB's, I think from the Mon-Tues groupo, they're all coming back, as they'll all be 5 days by Sunday.   But the issue IMO is they'll likely all be less than 100 percent - Covid is asymptomatic to mild in vaxxed population, and players are no different - but it still taxes the system like a cold/flu, and conditioning/energy wise, it's becoming clearer that players in their 1st game back don't have the same stamina/energy.   It's more obvious on O, where stats show the difference, but I don't think it affects D players any less.   So I am still optimistic on Kupp, although in future matchups, I'm definitely going to fade Kupp vs. SF if Ward is playing and the totals (or DFS price) are insanely high.

[SmittyBacall]

6 hours ago, N4L said:

The problem is that Jimmy Ward is on the covid list and might miss the game

I appreciate the analysis on this given normal circumstances, but wouldn’t this break our new “COVID comeback” rule? Offensive players have been struggling to return and remain productive coming off the COVID list (a la Travis Kelce); they look sluggish and play limited snaps. Wouldn’t the same apply for Ward? 

[SmittyBacall]

@Broncofan Tyreek’s receiving number came out as 62.5 yards. Seems low for a Broncos’ defense that will be without Surtain, Jackson, and Harris…

Obviously game script plays a factor here but I don’t think KC is going to be able to just run out the clock. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan Tyreek’s receiving number came out as 62.5 yards. Seems low for a Broncos’ defense that will be without Surtain, Jackson, and Harris…

Obviously game script plays a factor here but I don’t think KC is going to be able to just run out the clock. 

It's a good play, I wouldn't say it's a 2U-4U play only because DEN clearly decided to take the deep ball last time, I don't think it would be any different.   For sure, no Darby/Surtain means it's harder to execute, but Fangio as a DC can often surprise.   The thing I see without those 2 is the secondary guys are going to be open all day.  Denver has always prioritized but letting Hill beat them in the Fangio era.     I think Pringle O29.5 is ridiculously undervalued.    

I'll probably play the field and take Darrell Williams, Pringle, Hill & Kelce props - realizing I'll probably only go 3/4.    I do agree the props are all underweight, it's just trying to figure out who lol.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

13 hours ago, N4L said:

Niners Rams is really interesting for a lot of reasons and 10 points is a lot, which is why I like it as a teaser leg. I don't expect a blowout either way. Should come down to the final play. 

I really like teasing the U52 in this game. I wanna say only 1 matchup between McVay and Shanahan has gone Over this total, and with Jimmy G’s throwing hand banged up and Stafford’s early game struggles, I’m expecting at the very least a defensive 1H. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Feels like a good time to play a Diontae Johnson Under. We keep talking about avoiding guys fresh off the Covid list, but why not bet on them to struggle instead. 

I’m personally expecting a sluggish performance out of the PIT offense after barely being able to muster up meaningful offense in Ben’s last home game against a half-there Browns defense. 

The O/U is currently 66.5 on my book, with the Over currently getting steam at -120. I’m gonna monitor its movement through tomorrow and likely play the Under. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Tyler Huntley O40.5 Rushing (-115) 2U 

I’m breaking my 2U player prop rule for this play. Huntley has hit the Over in every game he’s played this season (one he didn’t even start), should find an easy time running against this depleted PIT defense, and should be plenty motivated in what could be his last audition for a starting gig in front of a home crowd. 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Feels like a good time to play a Diontae Johnson Under. We keep talking about avoiding guys fresh off the Covid list, but why not bet on them to struggle instead. 

I’m personally expecting a sluggish performance out of the PIT offense after barely being able to muster up meaningful offense in Ben’s last home game against a half-there Browns defense. 

The O/U is currently 66.5 on my book, with the Over currently getting steam at -120. I’m gonna monitor its movement through tomorrow and likely play the Under. 

The only caveat with Diontae Johnson - with only 1 day on the COVID list he more likely to have been a false positive (the same happened to Tyler Higbee with the game he missed - next day they got negative results and realized he was a false positive test - the only 2 it’s happened so far that I’ve heard of).   It’s rare but it happens (last I looked maybe 1 in 300 - but that kinda fits to have 2 guys).  
 

1 day doesn’t make sense with testing out.   It’s far more likely to be a false positive if he keeps testing negative.    So the COVID phenomenon likely doesn’t apply here.  

Edited January 8, 2022 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

D'Onta Foreman O70.5 rushing yards

The last time the Titans and Texans played was in terrible weather and the Titans turned the ball over 5 times so they had to abandon the run which led to Tannehill throwing the ball 52 times. Julio Jones and AJ Brown are both playing this week after missing the first game and Tennessee can secure the #1 seed with a win. Foreman has two 100+ yard rushing efforts over the last three weeks going up against the Houston's 32nd ranked run defense. I expect Tennessee to jump out to an early lead and pound the rock with Foreman.