Weekly Bets Thread

[Dash]

Pittman out. Dulin looks great for a DFS play.

[Broncofan]

34 minutes ago, Dash said:

Pittman out. Dulin looks great for a DFS play.

On the flip side, though - that crushes the O45 thinking.   

[SmittyBacall]

I like Greg Dortch 5 or more receptions (Milestone) +145.

Still no Hopkins or Moore, Green’s legs are shot, Ertz is banged up, and Kyler did not look to the boundary for Marquise Brown at all last week. Dortch is Kyler’s reliable outlet when he needs to get the ball out quick, and he should be under a ton of pressure versus Las Vegas. I see the game script having the Cards playing catch up, giving more opportunity for this to hit. His line is at 3.5 -160, but I’m okay bumping it for plus odds. Milestones at 50 yards is +135, and 75 yards +390 also tempting.

Edited September 18, 2022 by SmittyBacall

[Dash]

56 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I like Greg Dortch 5 or more receptions (Milestone) +145.

Still no Hopkins, Green’s legs are shot, Ertz is injured, and Kyler did not look to the boundary for Marquise Brown at all last week. Dortch is Kyler’s reliable outlet when under pressure, and he should be under a ton versus Las Vegas. I also see the game script having the Cards playing catch up, giving more opportunity for this to hit. His line is at 3.5 -140, but I’m okay bumping it for plus odds. Milestones at 50 yards is +135, and 75 yards +390 also tempting.

I'd have to check but think Browns DVOA splits out wide weren't that good when he was in Baltimore. They should do some more double slot action. But yeah Dortch should hit value. Hobbes is good but slot defense is kind of a team effort with the secondary and linebackers.

[N4L]

Jameis is dealing with a back injury. He definitely wasn't moving great at the end of the game last week. 

LIS, I love that under. Saints OL had a lot of problems last week. 

 

[SmittyBacall]

31 minutes ago, N4L said:

Jameis is dealing with a back injury. He definitely wasn't moving great at the end of the game last week. 

LIS, I love that under. Saints OL had a lot of problems last week. 

 

Love that under. Caught it at 46.5 as soon as the lines opened. 

[Broncofan]

Adding a NYG ML bet at +100.   I thought the line was set properly at NYG -2.5, I don't mind the late movement.  The NYG OL edge and the fact Saquon is back, more than negates CMC IMO.  

With the Jameis injury news, I'm still OK with NO ML / RACE's (because he's still going to play), but I have to pull the Winston O1.5 pass TD +110 prop.  More likely they play Taysom, and be more conservative around the RZ.  Dammit.

Edited September 18, 2022 by Broncofan

[Dash]

Got a good amount of Williams in DFS.  Swift may be limited and Williams took most of the goal line snaps last week. 

[Dash]

Have fun and get some cash guys.

[Broncofan]

On 9/16/2022 at 1:47 AM, Broncofan said:

Early bets to jump on IMO:

ATS/ML & RACE (1U Wins for ATS/ML, 0.5U for RACE unless otherwise stated)

EARLY

PIT ML +110 vs. NE - I know TJ Watt is gone, big blow.  But this is a bad matchup for NE.   Matt Patricia is a disaster with the OL and as OC.   PIT's D and HFA really make a difference.   I don't have much confidence in a high scoring game, so no RACE's, just the straight ML shot.

EDIT ADDED SUNDAY AM - NYG MG +100 vs. CAR - the line moved late here, so I'm willing to take them at a slight dog and basically pick' em returns.  Run game (love CMC, but Saquon is back) / trench & coaching edges all go the NYG.

NO ML +130 ML vs. TAM, RACE to 20/25 +160 / +240 - once again, bookmakers backing TB12 and TAM - when NO is their kryptonite.  I'm totally good with a ML play and RACE to 20/25.   

JAX +3.5 vs. IND - the JAX trenches are better this year, their skill guys are better this year, and we know Pittman is out, and very possibly Shaq Leonard (plus Kenny Moore is Q).  That's a huge disadvantage to IND, I'm not quite sold on ML/RACE unless I know Shaq Leonard isn't playing.   But +3.5 is too good to pass up as a home dog.

 

LATE

LV -5.5 vs. ARI - ARI without Hopkins and JJ Watt still gimpy, and Chandler Jones gone, well, they're a bad team.   Going to travel to Vegas, and a big bounceback game from Carr & co.   On the flip side, the Raiders pass rush likely to find a lot more success vs ARI's OL, and the secondary doesn't have to worry nearly as much on the WR/TE corps here.  I think the final score could be 10+ for the Raiders in a TO-neutral game.

CIN -7 @ DAL 2.2U - this is self-explanatory.   Terrible WR/OL, no Dak, and a D that is very much exposed when they can't generate negative plays or TO's.   A big get-right game for CIN.

 

SNF

GB -10.0 vs. CHI - any Given Sunday.  Last week proved that in spades.   But the talent gap here is massive, and there's no monsoon to level the playing field.    I don't expect this to be competitive TBH.

TOTAL - 7U at stake

 

PLAYER PROPS

None out so far besides TD's, I'm going to be looking hard at following props:

EARLY

EDIT SUNDAY AM REMOVED - Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD's +110 - the path to beating TAM's D is in the air, I think this is a -150 prop.   EDIT:  With injury news, while he'll play, this removes the edge he had.   BET VOIDED.

Juwan Johnson O19.5 rec yds 2U - with Kamara likely out or limited, the Saints won't turn to more RB pass catching work with other guys, but likely use Johnson more.  He's now their pass catching TE, and his blocking has improved to the point where he's out-snapping Adam Trautman 2-1.   This number again should be in the low 30's, so this is an easy 2U play. 

Saquon Barkley O74.5 rush yds 2U - CAR's D gave up 200+ yds to CLE.  NYG isn't quite at the same OL level, but they have made massive gains.   Anything less than 80 yds and it's 2U time, but even up to 85 yds, I'm good with.

Zay Jones O43.5 rec yds 2U - JAX's 2nd leading target hog.   Definitely building a connection with T-Lawrence.  And if Kenny Moore, IND's all-world slot CB plays, well that makes his matchup with the boundary CB's (Facyson more than Gilmore, duh) much tastier this week.

 

LATE

Trey Lance O1.5 pass TD's +160 - SEA's pass D is where you beat them.   Monsoon game aside, I think the prop should be a pick 'em, so gotta take the shot with +160.

Trey Lance O189.5 pass yards 2U - my eyes did a double take when I saw this number.  In the unplayable monsoon last week - he threw for 160+ yards, with only 13 completions.   SEA just gave 340+ yards to Russell Wilson when they were being tipped as to what they were throwing on many plays.   TBH, this might be a 4U play.   Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's throwing for 300+, but my number I had in mind was 230 - he threw for 250+ against HOU's porous pass D last year without Kittle, this is much the same idea.

Jerry Jeudy O57.5 rec yds 2U - HOU's pass coverage got torched by IND's WR's - they couldn't hang on to the ball.  I don't expect problems with either guy; they'll be hungry to post big #'s in the DEN debut for Russell Wilson.

Courtland Sutton O54.5 rec yards - see Jeudy.

Brandon Aiyuk O3.5 recs +150 / O49.5 yds +150 - SEA's pass coverage is so vulnerable - Aiyuk likely stands to benefit the most.  At that plus money, I'm all over O3.5.  I'm also going to go over the 40.5 and instead take O49.5 at +150 - it's a little riskier, but I really see chunk play potential as well as 4+ catches (much like Jeudy & Sutton did), so the juice is worth the squeeze here.

Davante Adams O7.5 recs  - We know he's going to be a target hog, and ARI's pass D is so vulnerable.  

 

SNF/MNF

Kyler Phillips rec / rec yd props (PENDING) - the leading target guy, and excellent slot skills.   I'm convinced. 

B365 is offering another 0.5U free bet, so I'll also play a 6-leg Lance O189.5 pass yd/Barkley O74.5 rush yd/D-Adams O7.5 rec/J-Johnson O19.5 rec yds/Z-Jones O43.5 rec yds/Jeudy O57.5 rec yds for +4800. 

TOTAL - 16U at stake so far (Philips receiving props still not released yet)

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS (0.4U/0.1U 2+ unless otherwise stated)

EARLY

Zay Jones +350 / +4000 2+ (0.9/0.1U) - did I mention 2nd target in JAX?  Well, in the RZ, he's the top target guy along with Kirk.   Have to take a shot at these #'s. 

Ashton Dulin +450 / +7000 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) - Pittman hurting, Pierce with a concussion - in steps Dulin.    Already had EZ looks, so hopefully he gets another shot (don't drop this one, kid).

Juwan Johnson +550 / +8000 (0.8U/0.2U) - he's now the de factor move TE when they're in the RZ - gotta take a stab as long as it's anything +500 or higher.  Because of all the TAM uncertainty, the props aren't out yet.

LATE

 

SNF

 

MNF

Kyle Phillips +1100 / +12500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - starting slot guy, highest target share - admittedly small, but he's out there when they are trying to score.   Given the target share, this number is WAY to high.  Going 0.8U/0.2U accordingly.

TOTAL - 5U at stake so far

________________________________________________________________________________________________

WEEK 2 TNF INCLUDED
 

WEEK 1 FINAL

ATS/ML/RACE

4-2 ATS, 1-2 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK)

+0.8U

 

PLAYER PROPS

13-8

+5.2U

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

2-6 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF).

+1.4U

 

TOTAL - +7.4U (45U bet so far - Week 1 - +6.0U, Week 2 TNF - +1.4U)

 

Well today sucked hard - because 2 major injuries killed 6U worth of bets.   And frankly both looked good early on.   Still that’s the risk.  Just hurts that it really hurts my team IRL so much.  
 

ATS/ML & RACE - 2-4, -3U.  PIT giving up -2 in the TO battle and NO giving up 4 straight TO (!!!) in a 3-3 game loses early.   The bad call was CIN - the context being travel plus long OT often results in subpar performance the next week.   Ah well live & learn.   
 

PLAYER PROPS - 4-6, -5U - basically 5U lost literally cane from the 2 Lance and Jeudy 2U props.   Adams wasn’t close - while Zay Jones gamescript killed his ceiling.   
 

LONGSHOT TD - 0-3, -3U- Both Jones & Johnson got 1 EZ target but no joy.   Dulin got volume but the Colts were way worse than expected.  
 

Still have MNF - but bad weeks happen. The injuries suck; more important to learn from it & be better next week.  
 

See if we can end week 2 in the right direction for next week! 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK updated MNF card:

ATS/ML & RACE

LOSS - TEN +10.5 -120 - the news that BUF is without 2 interior DL allows the Titans to execute their Derrick Henry based run game.    I have zero expectations that the Titans will win (although anything is possible), but 10 is simply too wide.  I would hammer this for 2+ units if they were at home (realizing they'd likely be 7+), but this follows the "take TEN as a dog, fade them as favorites" betting history under HC Mike Vrabel with TEN.   I'll stick to 1.2U and get the extra 0.5 pts as it could be crucial here.

0-1

PLAYER PROPS

LOSS -Josh Allen O39.5 rush yds - you know the drill.   A decent pass rush means you take Allen's rush prop.

WIN Stefon Diggs O6.5 catches +110 2U - no Kristian Fulton.   No Gabe Davis, ppl are thinking TEN can take him away, I don't see it.

LOSS Derrick Henry O87.5 rush yds 2U - no way I would touch this with BUF's improved rush D....except they're leaky again at least for this week.   DT Tim Settle is doubtful and DT Ed Oliver is out.  That's HUGE for Henry's rush props.   I'm tempted to go O99.5 for +180, but rather take the lower hanging fruit here.

LOSS Kyle Philips O29.5 rec yds 2U - the top separator and top target guy.  I do not get this line at all, except for the rookie status.  
 

LOSS Kirk Cousins O1.5 pass TD's - PHI run D is not how they give up TD's when Jordan Davis is in there.  So I'm happy to go here.  The crazy # is O2.5 at +240, I'll do that personally, but won't put it on the books here.

LOSS Justin Jefferson O7.5 recs +120 - yes, I know Slay will likely draw coverage.  Just that JJ can't be covered.    And he & Cousins have that connection, much like A-Rod / Adams.

LOSS AJ Brown O73.5 rec yds 2U - speaking of volume hogs....man.   10 yards too low.  Hammering.

WIN Dallas Goedert O46.5 rec yds - the 2nd target, number is still too low.   If it's below 50, I'm going to keep playing it until Goedert's volume / production shows otherwise.

WIN Kenneth Gainwell O10.5 rec yds - the MIN pass D is vulnerable, and I expect Gainwell to get at least 4-5 targets.   

3-6

-4U

TD PROPS

WIN Stefon Diggs +300 TD (max bet 3U - B365 only) - I lost this bet boost from B365 with Javonte Williams last week - PAIN.   But the process is sound.   Diggs has a 40-45 percent TD probability, so I wasn't going to bet it this week.  But at +300?   Have to.  With Kristian Fulton out as well, I just hope the value hits here.

 

LOSS Kyle Phillips +1200 / +12500 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - the line's come down to +500 to +700.  Come on this one alone would fix Week 2's ledger!  If he's inactive, the bet voids, so willing to go here early this week when he was on the injury report; top target and top separator on the team.

LOSS Treylon Burks +600 / +7000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - FANDUEL ALERT -  Posters often mention they can't get the same odds for TD's that I post; the books I get in Canada are often way more generous than the odds US / world bettors get.  This is one of the few all US players can get.  B365 has him at +300, Fanduel has him at +450.   +600 is just insane.  I think Burks & Philips both have 25+ percent probability given how much they play.   So gotta take a stab here.

LOSS Khalil Shakir +1000 / +11000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - The background - Gabe Davis' status is undeclared.  But IMO this is easy - Davis plays, Shakir is inactive, and the bet voids.   Davis is inactive, Shakir is the other boundary receiver, and becomes an instant 25+ percent probability for an EZ target (or more).

 

I'm doing a SGP with my book's 0.5U free bet that has a Diggs TD / Henry TD and Henry for 100+ and Diggs for 90+ and TEN +10.5 for +3000.   Never pass up a free bet from the books, and hopefully either TD prop, a great night on the props / TEN +10 and we're heading into Week 3 in the right direction.  BOL!

1-3

+6U

SEASON TALLY up to Week 2 MNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

6-5 ATS, 1-4 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK)

-3.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

20-20

-3.8 (Now 2-6 in 2U plays - UGH)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

3-12 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play).

+4.4U

 

TOTAL:   -2.6U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 to TNF - -10.0U <ugh>)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Broncofan
Updated Results ...thank god for boosted TD props.

[Broncofan]

BTW I got the value play wrong - it was Burks +600 on Fanduel, the Shakir +1000 is another Canadian book.  My bad.

[N4L]

I like the over in the MIN/PHI game. Eagles defense gave up a lot to Detroit. Det has a lot of talent, but dalvin, Jefferson, Kirk are better than swift, Amon Ra, and Goff. 

Eagles offense has a lot to like with hurts rushing abilities and their three top targets being so talented. Plus, their OL is damn good. 

Seems like a game where the pace picks up when one of the teams jumps out to a lead. 

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, N4L said:

I like the over in the MIN/PHI game. Eagles defense gave up a lot to Detroit. Det has a lot of talent, but dalvin, Jefferson, Kirk are better than swift, Amon Ra, and Goff. 

Eagles offense has a lot to like with hurts rushing abilities and their three top targets being so talented. Plus, their OL is damn good. 

Seems like a game where the pace picks up when one of the teams jumps out to a lead. 

The only thing to be aware of is DET IMO has a top 5 OL.  PHI’s D could see more success against lesser OL’s.  I lean your way but keep the above in mind.  Love the MIN scheme & aggression.  Why I backed them and PHI as SB dark horses.   

They could be underwhelming though because their DC Gannon is pretty vanilla.  He claimed it was because of personnel last year.  It’s only week 1 but worth watching. 

I think whoever wins this may in fact end up as NFC 1 seed.   Should be awesome. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

BTW I got the value play wrong - it was Burks +600 on Fanduel, the Shakir +1000 is another Canadian book.  My bad.

Gabe Davis likely out, Khalil Shakir to start.

Don't care if it's +600, +700, +1000, this (and Kyle Phillips +1200), the value here is insane.

Diggs is boosted on B365 to score a TD from -105 to +300.  3U play (they don't allow more lol). Just like Javonte Williams last week (and OMG talk about pain).   Please, let's get it this time.

Won't lie, if Shakir & Diggs score a TD for BUF and Phillips scores for TEN, you may not hear from me for a day or 2, provided I survive the celebration.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Broncofan