Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Huge wind issues with 20+ mph forecast.   Avoid the kickers in DFS.    That contracts the game even further and no Clowney is enough for me to take PIT +4.5.   Trubisky is the reason I’m not backing the ML.   
 

This pulls the deep ball throws though - so no DPJ prop - voided.  

I was eyeing the Kareem hunt over 2.5 receptions line. How do you think this affects that? You'd think that would almost help since they cant throw downfield, but a stacked box may not allow enough room underneath for dump offs. 

Steelers have given up the 7th most receptions to RBs at 13 so far this season:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/ALL/avg/standard?&_3:col_1=8

Thats a lot considering they did not play in blowouts. 

 

[Broncofan]

43 minutes ago, N4L said:

I was eyeing the Kareem hunt over 2.5 receptions line. How do you think this affects that? You'd think that would almost help since they cant throw downfield, but a stacked box may not allow enough room underneath for dump offs. 

Steelers have given up the 7th most receptions to RBs at 13 so far this season:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/ALL/avg/standard?&_3:col_1=8

Thats a lot considering they did not play in blowouts. 

 

I think you can play every short pass prop, and nothing more on the passing end.  I'm avoiding K and QB's in DFS (although I suppose Tru could run a TD in).  Adding it to my card, good call.

I got a free bet tonight for 0.4U, so I'm going to go with a U45.5 / Harrison Bryant 3+ catches (+240) / K-Hunt 4+ catches (+260) / DiontaeJ 6+ catches parley at +4000.  Won't say no to a free shot at 16U.  Let's go short passing game (and TE TD's)!

Edited September 22, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Draftkings promo, if your team is up 7 at any point you win. ML only, $50 max

 

I bet Rams week 1, horrible loss

Chargers week 2, cashed

Going with Pittsburgh this week. IF Mitch can just not turn it over, I think Pittsburgh wins outright. 

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, adamq said:

Draftkings promo, if your team is up 7 at any point you win. ML only, $50 max

 

I bet Rams week 1, horrible loss

Chargers week 2, cashed

Going with Pittsburgh this week. IF Mitch can just not turn it over, I think Pittsburgh wins outright. 

Be aware - that may no longer be in effect.  DK lost 75M on that (presumably gained 100M's more in new business...perhaps).

 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

45 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Be aware - that may no longer be in effect.  DK lost 75M on that (presumably gained 100M's more in new business...perhaps).

 

Thats the Sunday promo, he’s talking the Thursday one

[Broncofan]

12 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Thats the Sunday promo, he’s talking the Thursday one

Now that they've hooked in the crowd, I wouldn't be surprised if they end it next week.   Fanduel, Score, B365...all their promos are ending after Week 2.   B365 keeps their 17 pt lead auto W but their free plays / special offers all expire this week; same as many books.  
 

I'd be shocked if DK doesn't follow suit with TNF (although they may see it as a way to draw more action for the weekend)   Still, it's all good tonight.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OMG I can't imagine how under bettors feel right now.  WOW.

(Not to mention how much $ changed hands in DFS with that play).

[Broncofan]

On 9/21/2022 at 3:18 PM, Broncofan said:

OK so for tomorrow's TNF game, one ATS play, and the OU is 38.5 (!!!) - of which it's gone under 7/7x in the history of primetime football.    That's a ridiculously low line (well-earned).

So, onto ATS / player props & TD props, of which I have a few on both sides:

ATS

PIT +4.5 - love CLE talent when healthy and Watson there   And don’t trust Trubisky at all.  But with Clowney out the run D and complementary pass rush to Garett suffers.  Add in the familiarity with a division game and the low totals gotta go with the dog.

PLAYER PROPS

Diontae Johnson O5.5 catches +140 2U - PIT's O is so high-volume, but low ADOT with Trubisky.   Diontae-J has been getting 10+ targets both weeks - but barely hits 50-60 yards.  I am very comfortable with the rec props - but no way I'd touch yardage.   The + money really makes it worthwhile

Pat Friermuth O4.5 catches +140 - Along the same lines, he's the true safety valve - he could get 5/30, though, so I don't want the yardage prop.   And he's had 7+ targets in 6 of the last 7 games, which keeps me comfortable at 5 catches (whereas last year he was + money at 4 catches, Vegas has caught on, but still OK on a short week).

EDIT - PULLED WITH WIND  - Donovan People-Jones O2.5 catches +110 -  I know, he got a goose egg last week.  But the PIT D will look to take away Cooper (unlike NYJ's D, for whatever reason). 

EDIT - ADDED @N4L PROP - Kareem Hunt O2.5 catches - see next page.  

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Pat Friermuth +300 / +4000 TD (now already +260/+3000 - 0.8U/0.2U) - not only is he the safety valve, but also a popular RZ target.   ESP with CLE's LB's still an issue, gotta take a shot here. 

David Njoku +500 / +6000 2+ FANDUEL (0.8U/0.2U) - CLE likes the big bodies in the RZ.  Good odds but can’t compare to…

Harrison Bryant +600 / +9500 2+ TD FANDUEL (now already +450 / +6000 - 0.8U/0.2U) - on the CLE side, while David Njoku is the name, he's still a blocking force - while Bryant runs about 2x as many routes.  This is the guy to target for TD props, but he's still played as a longshot.    I don't like him for volume (especially with Minkah as the safety), but the value on the TD prop is worth a play.

So that's 7U on the line, while I think it's low scoring, see value in the plays above.  BOL/LFG to start Week 3!

 

 

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Huge wind issues with 20+ mph forecast.   Avoid the kickers in DFS.    That contracts the game even further and no Clowney is enough for me to take PIT +4.5.   Trubisky is the reason I’m not backing the ML.   
 

This pulls the deep ball throws though - so no DPJ prop - voided.  

 

5 hours ago, N4L said:

I was eyeing the Kareem hunt over 2.5 receptions line. How do you think this affects that? You'd think that would almost help since they cant throw downfield, but a stacked box may not allow enough room underneath for dump offs. 

Steelers have given up the 7th most receptions to RBs at 13 so far this season:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/ALL/avg/standard?&_3:col_1=8

Thats a lot considering they did not play in blowouts. 

 

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I think you can play every short pass prop, and nothing more on the passing end.  I'm avoiding K and QB's in DFS (although I suppose Tru could run a TD in).  Adding it to my card, good call.

I got a free bet tonight for 0.4U, so I'm going to go with a U45.5 / Harrison Bryant 3+ catches (+240) / K-Hunt 4+ catches (+260) / DiontaeJ 6+ catches parley at +4000.  Won't say no to a free shot at 16U.  Let's go short passing game (and TE TD's)!

Well the ATS/ML struggles continue, but the player props & longshot TD props had an excellent night.

ATS - oh well, should have stuck to my initial thought and stayed away.    0-1, -1U.

PLAYER PROPS - Diontae Johnson and Kareem Hunt hit their receiving props, while Freirmuth hit yards, but not catches - way it goes.   2-1, but 2U +140 means it's +2.8U here.  Glad I held off on taking the Chubb under - clearly I need to stick to just ID'ing player over's for now.  😁

LONGSHOT TD - A bit unlucky I couldn't cash more tickets, as Njoku was a target monster everywhere, including in the 2H for a potential 2nd TD, and Bryant was on the field with 12 personnel in the RZ on pass plays.  Way it goes.   Still, +500 Njoku makes for  +2.0U here.

A nice tidy TNF, hopefully that gets us going for Week 3!

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 3 TNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

6-6 ATS, 1-4 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK)

-4.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

22-21

-1.0U (3-6 in 2U plays - UGH)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

4-14 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF).

+7.4U

 

TOTAL:   +2.2U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 TNF - +4.8U  )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

T&Ps to any Steelers teasers and total teasers out there. 

[bigbadbuff]

Blah 2 yard miss on the hunt receiving yards would’ve cashed everything for me. Ended about even for the game.

[Broncofan]

39 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

T&Ps to any Steelers teasers and total teasers out there. 

There’s a group of Fanduel bettors out there that are on full tilt right now.  
 

Pat Mcafee had 1K on that boosted +800 parley.   I can’t post the link to his Twitter because it violates the Forum rules.   😬

Edited September 23, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

And if you thought Fanduel +800 boosted parley bettors were having a bad night...

 

 

[Broncofan]

On 9/20/2022 at 4:27 PM, Broncofan said:

Now, understanding the above, for Week 3, if you can find some books (like B365), they actually release early lines and you can get in on some juicy odds.  There's risk it goes the wrong way, but for example, I got 5 plays I'm very happy with (and 1 that hasn't moved):

WEEK 3 ATS/ML & RACE EARLY BIRD BETS (Taken Before MNF games - RACE not out yet)

EARLY

HOU ML +150 (now +110) @ CHI - same deal here.  The only thing I don't like is HOU's vulnerability to the run game, which CHI can exploit.   But again it's +150 instead of pick 'em odds.   

PHI -3 (was at -6.5,) @ WAS - not much to say, my eyes popped that this was the opener pre-MNF.  DET keeping close with the backdoor cover and no 2nd game was why it was low. 

BUF -4 (moved to -6, now -5.5) @ MIA - same deal pre-MNF.    BUF really gives MIA fits on both sides of the ball. I get the WR's make a big diff, but I don't think we'll see BUF be less than 7 pt faves too many more times, have to take -4.

DET +7 (now +6) @ MIN, DET ML +260 (now +210) & RACE to 20/25/30 (+220, +360 & +550) - the ATS kings and frankly, I think it's a pick 'em, their OL is that good.  

BAL -3 @ NE (now -2.5/stable) - I get BAL's secondary has issues - but NE doesn't have the speed on either side of the ball to make the Ravens pay.    I'm surprised the line hasn't moved already TBH.

EDIT:  ADDED BEFORE TNF - GB - TAM U43 - OL issues for both teams, good D's for both teams, and a bunch of missing WR's.   I think the line is going to be closer to 40 by game day, so taking it now.

 

LATE

ATL ML +150 (now +100) @ SEA / RACE to 20/25 (+140 / +260) - ATL is far more proficient on O, and their D is actually OK.  Big talent difference IMO.   Being @ SEA I get why they're dogs, but getting +150 vs. +115 makes it a no-brainer to take IMO.

 

Going 4/7 dogs, and already seeing a massive line shift in my favor, and most of all, doesn't violate the Week 3 warnings above....pretty stoked.   Looking to get 2022 rolling with both team scouting and knowing the Week 3 trends.   

Will be a while before player props come out, so that's it for now.

OK added 7 player props and 3 5 Long Shot TD's:

ATS/ML & RACE

Listed above.   Added RACE's x 3 to DET and X2 to ATL, so that's 9.5U.  I also have a free play at Fanduel, so I'm putting 0.5U on BAL -1 (nice line now) / PHI -3 / BUF -2.5 / HOU ML / DET +3 / ATL ML (and with only ATL late, I can hedge out if it's winning) for +5000.   So that's 9.5U at play (since 0.5U parley is refunded if it loses).

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

EDIT ADDED SUN AM Jared Goff 3+ pass TD's +450 - wild card flyer, but the DET OL is legit, the MIN pass D is vulnerable with no Harrison Smith, and I think it's a 40-45 percent prob, so the +450 is insane value I have to take a shot on.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +120 - when Mahomes faces Cover-3 he goes 3+ TD's 70 percent of time.   At +money gotta take a stab.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - Clyde Edwards Helaire 16.5 rec yds - credit to @agarcia34 here.   No Shaq Leonard easy call.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - DJ Moore O55.5 rec yds - normally Lattimore Island is a problem, but not for DJ Moore.  He's gone +80 yards 4 of last 5 games.  Have to take a stab.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD's +160 - with Taysom Hill inactive, it means all snaps go through Jameis.  I love this line at +160.   Love the Juwan Johnson TD props a little more now too.

Dallas Goedert O46.5 rec yds - as long as it's below 50, I'll keep playing it.  #2 target, and a mismatch almost every week that they look to use.

Curtis Samuel O46.5 rec yds 2U - this is way too low.   He's their go-to underneath guy, the CMC in Scott Turner's scheme.   And with the attention drawn to Mclaurin / Dotson, I'd have put the number closer to 60's.   

Juwan Johnson O22.5 rec yds - same deal as last week.  He's the short-intermediate guy, and a total mismatch.  Relatively low volume, but guaranteed floor of 4-5 targets.   Until the number is closer to 30, easy play each week.

Tyler Conklin O3.5 catches +120 (now +110) - easy call once it came out.   He's getting at least 6 targets a game, and he's the full-time starter.   Total safety valve, so be careful on yard props - his ADOT is like 1 yard (LOL).  So hit the catch prop instead.

Treylon Burks O35.5 rec yds - on the other spectrum, clearly TEN's best boundary receiver and YAC threat.   They're going to him with a a limited snap count - as that rises, his numbers will explode.     This should be more like mid-high 40's. 

EDIT ADDED SUN AM Michael Pittman 75+ rec yds +120 - following @N4L's find here.  Love him and Mahomes/Kelce in DFS.

LATE

Aaron Jones O27.5 receiving yards - with all the injuries, they will have to turn to Jones in the pass game (and with stout run D, better way to leverage him).   Easy call, thought it would be high 30's.

Marcus Mariota O28.5 rushing yards - against running QB's, SEA's ILB's often give up more rush yards on the boundary (stout up the middle).   This is an easy number to target, while Donald & co (and big LAR lead early) suppressed the #'s last week, he put up 60+ against NO.   Expected a number closer to 40.

EDIT ADDED SAT - Greg Dortch 50+ Rec yds 2U +240 milestone (+180 FD) - credit to @11sanchez11 he found it at 36+ yds   I can’t pass up the 50 yd milestone as I have the projection in low 60’s   

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - Kyle Pitts 75+ rec yards +290 - another one of @N4L's finds.   Love the squeaky wheel, game script and SEA D vulnerability here.

 

I'm really interested the TAM/GB props and TD plays with all the inactives that could be there, but the books rightfully won't release any.  Don't blame 'em.   Last free bet week of the year (I suspect) for 0.5U, and I'm going to go with a +5000 of D-Goedert O46.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O46.5 rec yds / T-Burks O35.5 rec yds / J-Johnson O22.5 rec yds / T-Conklin O3.5 catches +110 / Mariota O28.5  rush yards.  EDIT SUN AM:  Going to add a 0.5U parley of my own with Goff O1.5 pass TD's (less risk in parley) / CEH O16.5 rec yds / DJ Moore O56.5 rec yds / J-Johnson O25.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O45.5 rec yds / G-Dortch O34.5 rec yds for +4300.      By only going with Marcus Mariota & Dortch for the late games, it also means if the first 5 player props hit in the 1 PM games, I can hedge an under if I feel like it and guarantee a nice W no matter what.  So that's 14.5U at risk

LONGSHOT TD'S:

EARLY

Tony Jones +2000 1U FANDUEL - pure gamble that Kamara sits again.   If he does, Jones actually got more snaps and pass work.   Pure flier, they don't even have a 2+ TD prop lol.  EDIT SAT LATE PM:  News that Kamara is back, but odds also down to +500, so Fanduel offered a +120 cashout, I'll gladly take it given the TD props are legit 20-1 lol.  +1.2U profit and 1U returned

Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - the starting TE and a guy they look to in the RZ.  Worth the value here.

Jody Fortson +1000 / +12500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - interesting factoid, he only gets 1-2 targets and about 10-15 snaps a game max - but he's in their 12 package, and a guy Mahomes actually looks to in the RZ.  Think of him as the Donald Parham of the Chiefs.  Worth a sniff. 

EDIT LATE SAT PM ADDITION - Tommy Sweeney +1000 / +12500 2+ (0.4U/0.1U); with Dawson Knox battling a foot issue from MNF, just playing a hunch he may either be inactive, or get more snaps.  He's already seen 1 EZ target in the first 2 games, so a bit of a flier, but I'm frerolling 3.2U profit, don't mind a huge payout 0.5U flier. 

EDIT NEW ADDITION.  Zamir White +850 FANDUEL 0.8U /+12500 2+ (B365) 0.2U - see post below with new Josh Jacobs info.    CASHED OUT AT +200 Win Sat PM - +2U profit and 1U returned (see post Page 211)

EDIT NEW ADDITION FRI  Jakob Johnson +2500 0.5U - see post below.  Sites don't even have 2+ TD props lol.

EDIT NEW ADDITION SUN AM  Kendrick Bourne +400 / +5000 (0.9U / 0.1U) - with Meyers likely out.

EDIT NEW ADDITION SUN AM Lil' Jordan Humphrey +1400 / +12500 (0.9U / 0.1U) - with Meyers likely out. 

Will be interested to see if there are bargains in the TAM-GB TD props.   So far only 5.0U at risk.

29U risk total

 

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 3 TNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

6-6 ATS, 1-4 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK)

-4.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

22-21

-1.0U (3-6 in 2U plays - UGH)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

4-14 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 4 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop with starter status in doubt).

+10.6U

 

TOTAL:   +5.9U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 TNF & SNF TD cashouts - +8.0U  )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

So Josh Jacobs isn't travelling with the team to TEN yet.  If he feels better tomorrow, he MIGHT be travelling - but if he sits out, then Zamir White presumably becomes the running back and GL/short-yardage guy, and Brandon Bolden/Abdullah become the pass catchers.

Yet Bolden & Abdullah are current around +300 for TD's - but Zamir is +850 on Fanduel.  And even better, the FB Jakob Johnson is +2500.   Definitely worth 0.9U/0.1U 2+ for Zamir White and 0.5U on Jakob Johnson.   If Jacobs plays, likely a donation (but I can likely cash out on FD for 10 percent loss) - but if we wait until the news is clear, the odds drop will be massive for Zamir, so I'll take the shot now.

[Broncofan]

42 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

So Josh Jacobs isn't travelling with the team to TEN yet.  If he feels better tomorrow, he MIGHT be travelling - but if he sits out, then Zamir White presumably becomes the running back and GL/short-yardage guy, and Brandon Bolden/Abdullah become the pass catchers.

Yet Bolden & Abdullah are current around +300 for TD's - but Zamir is +850 on Fanduel.  And even better, the FB Jakob Johnson is +2500.   Definitely worth 0.9U/0.1U 2+ for Zamir White and 0.5U on Jakob Johnson.   If Jacobs plays, likely a donation (but I can likely cash out on FD for 10 percent loss) - but if we wait until the news is clear, the odds drop will be massive for Zamir, so I'll take the shot now.

That didn't take long.   White is now +300 and +350 everywhere.