Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 9/20/2022 at 3:52 PM, Broncofan said:

Now, as for this week - a word of caution.   Vegas is well aware that bettors start to go off trends - and then a major trap gets set up on Week 3. 

This is a well-described phenomenon.   56 percent doesn't sound like a lot, but going from 0-16 to >50 percent means bettors often over-react. 

Now, LV plays @TEN, and NO @ CAR, so that's automatically 2-2.   But the other 4 teams - beware in fading them, ESP if they are dogs.   

We're already seeing it with DEN, they went from a 2.5 pt fave to a 1.5 pt dog.   IND likely will be a >7 pt dog from the opener +6.5.   Wouldn't surprise me if LAR drops to the important -3, while CIN is at -4.5 @ NYJ.  Beware of thinking it's an auto-fade.   Vegas makes a mint off this thinking.

Coming back to this - the week 3 0-2 ATS covering in Week 3 ran perfect again in 2022.     There were 2 games with 0-2 teams, so naturally only 1 can win and 1 can lose - but the other 4 teams covered.   6-2 (and the 2-2 was guaranteed with NO-CAR and LV-TEN).   85-64 heading into 2023.

LAR (very easy)

IND (pretty easy, although KC made a ton of mistakes to let it happen)

DEN (not easy)

CIN (very easy)

It doesn't mean I'll auto-back the 0-2 team, but I'll likely do as I did this year - and just pass on the matchup if I do like the team that's not 0-2.   I can't explain it other than Vegas' algorithm clearly works in finding a line crowds overreact to.   

Of note - it doesn't apply to 0-3 teams, for week 4.   Weird, but it's happened too often to ignore it.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Broncofan

[N4L]

On 8/12/2022 at 2:41 AM, N4L said:

Olave OROY +750 - Dude is a baller ready to ball out from day one like he has always done. NO shrewdly snagged a playmaker who they plan on peppering with passes

+500 still feels great because of the injuries to their other WRs 

[Broncofan]

Because there is so much uncertainty with Tua ahd Waddle - no props are out except yardage for CIN & TD props for both teams.   
 

I already mentioned I’m taking a dog shot on MIA ML +170 & RACE to 20/25/30 for 2.5U.   
 

I’ll add 3 more player prop (one boosted) and 2 TD prop, the OG player prop being a 2U play.  
 

-Tyler Boyd o40.5 Rec yds 2U the Dolphins are stingy in pass D vs. boundary WR.  They give up a lot of slot action.   This is an easy play worth 2U

EDIT ADDED THU PM - Raheem Mostert o38.5 rush yards +105 - full credit to @N4L on this one   

EDIT ADDED THU PM BOOSTED BET - Tyreek Hill 50+ Rec yds +100 3.2U - not much to be explained.   See page 217. 
 

-Durham Smythe +800 / +10000 2+ TD  (0.8U / 0.2U) - CIN pass D remains vulnerable to the TE.   The value here lies in the fact Durham Smythe is taking over snaps for Gesicki and getting targets.    Worth the long odd payoff.    
 

-EDIT ADDED THU PM - Trent Sherfield +750 TD - late add see page 217.  
 

If there’s a boosted TD prop for Tyreek Hill I’ll consider it but for now that’s it for TNF.  BOL! 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Broncofan
Adding Small Sherfield TD prop; Mostert rush & Tyreek boosted Rec yds plays.

[SmittyBacall]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

-Tyler Boyd o40.5 Rec yds 2.5U- the Dolphins are stingy in pass D vs. boundary WR.  They give up a lot of slot action.   This is an easy play worth 2.5U.  

I like this play/thinking. 

To tack on, Miami blitzes a lot. I think they blitzed Josh Allen an absurd 40+ times last week. If they continue that strategy on Thursday the ball is going to come out of Burrow’s hand fast - which should benefit Boyd and Hurst. I’ll be on both for props.

Boyd over 3.5 receptions is already -155. Chase and Higgins reception odds are both down bad already at -145 (5.5 rec) and -160 (4.5 rec) respectively. Seems the public/sharks are thinking the same way. 

[Broncofan]

44 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I like this play/thinking. 

To tack on, Miami blitzes a lot. I think they blitzed Josh Allen an absurd 40+ times last week. If they continue that strategy on Thursday the ball is going to come out of Burrow’s hand fast - which should benefit Boyd and Hurst. I’ll be on both for props.

Boyd over 3.5 receptions is already -155. Chase and Higgins reception odds are both down bad already at -145 (5.5 rec) and -160 (4.5 rec) respectively. Seems the public/sharks are thinking the same way. 

I always check the metrics to make sure my eye test isn't biased - when both align, I then play with more confidence.

The MIA slot D is 30th in fantasy pts allowed (as in 3rd easiest) as per the DVOA ppl - where their boundary guys are 8th-fewest & 10th-fewest.   The BUF and NE games hinted at this - Meyers was 4-59, and McKenzie was 8-86.   BUF's play volume was so high, you can't project that high, but you get the idea.

I was REALLY tempted to take an alt line prop - but MIA's pass rush could have Burrow running for his life...again.  So I'll just take the lowest number on Boyd and sleep easier.  The prop for 50+ "only" goes for +140, so the risk isn't worth 0.5U more....if it was +200 or better, then I'd be thinking to hit that, but not tonight.

[SmittyBacall]

42 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I always check the metrics to make sure my eye test isn't biased - when both align, I then play with more confidence.

The MIA slot D is 30th in fantasy pts allowed (as in 3rd easiest) as per the DVOA ppl - where their boundary guys are 8th-fewest & 10th-fewest.   The BUF and NE games hinted at this - Meyers was 4-59, and McKenzie was 8-86.   BUF's play volume was so high, you can't project that high, but you get the idea.

I was REALLY tempted to take an alt line prop - but MIA's pass rush could have Burrow running for his life...again.  So I'll just take the lowest number on Boyd and sleep easier.  The prop for 50+ "only" goes for +140, so the risk isn't worth 0.5U more....if it was +200 or better, then I'd be thinking to hit that, but not tonight.

Where do you find your DVOA numbers?

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Where do you find your DVOA numbers?

I subscribe to the actual site - Football Outsiders.   It's the only stats service I pay for (and the rate is reasonable - like $30 a year), it's not perfect but their methodology and correlation to O / D / ST and situational unit play is still the best I've found.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

With UK games now coming up, I think it's worthwhile to mention there's a potential leverage opportunity that often goes unmissed - teams that leave early for UK usually do a lot better than teams who leave later.    The reason is simple - anyone who's travelled across the pond will confirm that west-to-east travel is way more taxing on the human body.  It's why the West Coast to East Coast handicap for WC teams playing early 1 PM games happens so much.    Now teams are way better at adjusting for it - but that's at most a 3 hour time zone difference.     With each additional time zone, though, the effect is even more striking.

The Saints are well aware of this, having their FO and coaching staff (minus Payton - GM Loomis, OC Carmicheal, DC-now-HC Dennis Allen) in 2017.    They travelled immediately after the game, and landed in UK Monday AM. 

https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/new-orleans-saints-prepared-for-business-in-london

 

MIN is a 6-hour time zone difference - so treating it like a west-to-east trip isn't good enough.   Most travellers would tell you it takes a good 2-3 days before you even start to feel normal.   And you're not at peak energy / etc.    However, their FO, not having been around when they last played in UK in 2017 (Spielman replaced by Adofo-Mensah, Zimmer replaced by O'Connell), made the difficult decision to skip the bye week this early after UK game, which IMO is a mistake.  The league offers this to every team, but the Vikes passed, and will play Chicago Week 6.   The mistake isn't playing the week after - the return trip goes a LOT better, so I get why teams are tempted to do this.   But the problem is without the bye week, teams don't want to have to adjust from UK time back to USA time on the way back.  And so....they take the approach that they're going to stay on US time, and fly in late - which is what MIN is doing.  They're leaving on the THU redeye, and arriving on Friday AM.     

https://www.twincities.com/2022/09/23/vikings-wont-be-in-london-very-long-for-game-against-saints/amp/

The ironic part is that MIN went early to UK, won both games.   NO did the same.    Even 1-2 days more is a big difference.  For NO to have a 4 day advantage of adjustment is huge.   If this goes down like I think it will, I suspect MIN won't make the mistake of travelling late, or passing on the bye week, next time they have to travel across the pond.

 

So, with that in mind, I'm definitely on NO +3, and likely the ML & RACE's.    BUT, I would advise bettors who are willing to follow along to wait.  Why?   Because Jameis Winston missed practice today - and that will only drive the line further in MIN's direction.   Now, I think there's an easy explanation for why Jameis would miss practice - his back injury needs to be managed for the rest of the year, and the long transcontinental flight would have him stiffer afterwards regardless.  I imagine he's getting a lot of work in the training room (not in Deshaun Watson mode, but legit massages/etc.).    But I also expect he'll play.   The uncertainty, however, will only drive the line more in MIN's favor, and I'm willing to take the chance it gets past 3 pts, or even the ML goes up.  

Obv it's not a lock, but the above is a hidden exploit I've observed over the years, and the science in altered performance is well documented.   So yes, even though they looked awful @ CAR, I'm going NO ML and likely RACE's - just can wait until later on, as I think the line is only going MIN's way for now.  BOL!

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

Keep this in mind.

 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Keep this in mind.

 

The Raiders D has been very good at locking up big bodied receivers (Mike Williams 2-10, Burks and AJ-Green <who's done IMO> was a ghost) - TE's and quick-twitch and precision runners have given the D fits (Robert Woods went for 4-68, Keenan Allen got 4-65+ in 1Q before getting hurt, and Greg Dortch went 5-70-1 IIRC).   Now, we also see that Hobbs (concussion) and Ya-Sin (knee) are both hurting (although Ya-Sin hasn't been that good, Hobbs is a problem if he's out).    Something to keep in mind with opponents facing the Raiders D.

I played Burks props last week licking my chops and took the L.   I'll probably keep firing as long as his snap count and RR usage stays as high as it is.   The other part is that TEN got a big lead and leaned on the run game, and used Henry in the screen game as a run proxy.    

If you play Burks props in games you think are back and forth or they will be trailing - prime spot.  If you think they can get a lead and play Henry ball...stay away.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

For TNF I like Gesicki to score at +370 on FD.. even with his reduced role those odds are too good to pass up IMO. May even sprinkle a little on 2 TDs at +3000. 

[N4L]

On 9/25/2022 at 12:04 AM, N4L said:

KC -5 - Andy Reid with a long week is typically a great bet. Gus Bradley is going to have his lunch money stolen from him. KC will simply outclass them. 

Over 52 DET/MIN - Detroits secondary is bad and Jefferson is going to slice them up. If he doesn't, they are going to be exposed elsewhere. DET has shown it can and will score points, they throw the ball a lot and Amon Ra has been fantastic. Lots of offensive talent and two so-so defenses. Both teams score TDs 

Under 42 GB/TB - GB is one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Rodgers always takes his time. Both teams want to run the ball. Lots of WRs missing from this game. Two very good defenses. 

Over 53 MIA/BUF - Miami has had problems stopping Josh Allen and the Ravens just put up tons of points on them last week. Bills are a well oiled machine on offense.  Thry are missing a lot in the secondary and have a couple DTs out again. Miami will know what they are up against and will come out firing. McDaniel isn't going to try and take the air out of the game, he will try and score. Fast paced game imo. 

ATL +1 - Seattle is terrible. They had 10 men on offense at one point last week. They triple teamed a backup rotational DT and left Nick Bosa unblocked. They put 4 RBs in at the same time and tried to run a HB pass. Just an absolute mess. ATL is pretty feisty. Their offense has some playmakers, Mariota has looked surprisingly sharp (for the most part), and their defense seems to be competent. 

Eagles team total over 27 - WSHs defense is bad, their secondary is very bad, jack del rio should not be employed in the NFL, dude is a dinosaur and a moron. Eagles offense puts tons of pressure on defenses. WSH doesn't have anyone to cover AJB and godert should feast over the middle. Eagles will also have no issues running the ball. AJB anytime TD is going to cash. Wentz turnovers under pressure can certainly help us win this one. 

Baltimore -2 - this is a bet on the Baltimore offense. I believe they will score points and that NE won't be able to keep up. Lamar is throwing the ball better than people realize. I'm just going to take the better QB on the better offense and not overthink it. Pats offense is bad until proven otherwise. They don't have Tyreek or waddle. 

This felt so close to a great week, but in review:

KC/IND - The muffed punt to start the game after IND went three and out completely flipped the game. It really gave IND a lot of confidence and got the crowd into the game. KC was not able to get anything going on the ground and it felt like everything was a struggle for them offensively. The big plays were just not there so it felt like every drive was difficult.

I thought KC's offense would have the upper hand with the extra prep time but they did not look in sync for large chunks of the game. 

I am unimpressed with the KC weapons outside of Kelce. Juju is the WR1 moving forward, and I will take a close look at his catch props moving forward because he is a volume WR with a low aDot, but he is not dynamic. He is a solid WR, no doubt, but he is more of a WR3 than a WR1. I will never understand what they saw in MVS to give him that contract, complete waste of money. Hardman is either not very good or injured (or both) and they dont even give snaps to their second round pick, Skyy Moore. Not sure what they are doing there or why they thought this group was good enough. I would not be surprised to see them trade for a WR at some point. 

These two teams are very physical in the trenches on both sides of the football. The Chiefs defense is somewhat impressive so far. Not a top 5 unit yet but they seemed very sound on all three levels. Seems like Spags has them playing as a unit. I will be looking to play KC unders a lot in the near term because I do think while they couldnt run the ball this week, they are very committed to running the ball this year, that OL has some maulers, they dont have tyreek to take the top off and score quickly, teams will continue to play a lot of two high against them to force them to dink and dunk and have long drives, which is just not what Mahomes wants to do, but that does tend to chew more clock, even if they are completing a lot of passes and scoring TDs. 

Also, not having Butker really hurt this bet. They ran a TERRIBLE fake FG and then missed another FG. Chris Jones also had a very questionable unsportsman conduct penalty for saying something after a third down sack on Matt Ryan. This was one of those games where it still felt like KC was the better team but the colts just got most of the breaks. Such is the NFL. 

DET/MIN Over - technically a push as it was written here but I did get another unit down in the morning when it was at 51. As Broncofan said, Campell took his foot off the gas, which was something that I was very surprised about because that seems to be against his MO. It took MIN longer than anticipated to figure out that Jefferson was getting doubled. It was like Kirk finally realized partway through the game he had to start throwing elsewhere, and it took a little bit to get their offense going. DET's D is better than I gave them credit for, but they are still another year or two from being a "good" defense.

Over 53 BUF/MIA - I felt really good about this one when it was 14-14 at halftime. To be fair, MIA had a takeaway inside Buffalo's 10 yard line that helped push it to that figure. I did not take into account the heat and how tired these guys were going to get. It looked like we had a shot to go over about partway through the third, but the pace just slowed way down. Miami only ran 39 offensive plays, thats crazy to do in a game you win, when the other team runs almost 70 plays. Pretty wild game overall. Will be more careful with divisional games moving forward.

Eagles team total over 27 - I still cant believe this happened two weeks in a row. The eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, then didnt score again. Last week I had the over in the MIN/PHI game and it had 31 points in the first half, while neither team scored in the second half. I didnt really watch much of this game, but further investigation is required as to how this offense can look like an absolute juggernaut in one half, and then get shut out in the second half. Granted, they were up multiple scores in each game, but youd still think they would be able to put together one scoring drive in the second half. Either it's a young team just coasting, or the other team adjusts, or something else.

Whatever it is, it's worth monitoring, because this will absolutely cost them a game, perhaps this week, maybe even this weekend. If the Jags fall behind early, I may take them live for +14 or higher.

Edited September 29, 2022 by N4L

[N4L]

On 9/26/2022 at 11:18 PM, Broncofan said:

BUF-BAL O51.5 - Unders are still king.  But keep in mind that BAL is still missing 2 of their top 3 CB's, and their pass rush isn't elite anymore.   On the flip side, BUF's secondary is nowhere near as effective, and BAL's O presents a problem regardless in its uniqueness.   I also know the public likely is thinking the same, so this is one where the line could go up to 53-54+, and I'm much more comfortable with 52 as my target.  

DET -4.5 vs. SEA - SEA & ATL had a close game, and DET lost a heartbreaker in MIN where they were up 24-14, and then Dan Campbell let off the gas, and made some really awful game management choices (going for it on 4th and 2 from 29, and then kicking the 55+ yard FG on 4th and 4 from the 38 instead of trying to win the game.  If you go for it at the 29, you're going for it on the 38...or vice-versa, you kick the FG at the 29).  Campbell admitted he blew the game management, which was nice to see.   This is a case where the DET OL and pass game just can overwhelm the SEA D, and while I expect some SEA O success, the Lions' D is still a big step up from the ATL D, and we see more of a 31-17 type game.  Plus we get the WC travelling for an early game, too.  I want nothing to do with the line if it gets any higher, though, so going to get the line now.

I really like both of these. I took Over BUF/BAL at 53 when the line was first released thinking it was going to rise. I just doubled down seeing that its lower and you like this one. When we are in lockstep, I hammer it. 

Baltimore's defense is bad. I dont know how else to say it. They are a bad defense right now. Maybe they figure it out but I just dont know if they have any premium players on that side of the ball. I think their LBs are a weak spot. The pats moved the ball extremely well on them. Mac Jones was running wild.  If you look at Buffalo last year, they had a couple games where they scored less than 20 points and lost, and the following week they would put up 30+.

Lamar has taken his game to another level. He is throwing with timing and accuracy. He is seeing the field extremely well. People won't be able to ignore his passing ability very soon. He is slicing teams up through the air and the ground, but mainly through the air. It was obvious to me last year that he took a big step forward in that department. They have some good weapons now. IDK if I posted it here but I did put some money on him +2000 for the MVP. I originally was only going to do comeback player of the year for +1300. Glad I added the MVP one as well because I would be pretty pissed if he won MVP and not comeback player lol 

I will be taking the dobbins over 40.5 rush yards. It's a low number because his usage is in question, however he is by and away their best RB and teams have had a lot of success running the ball against the bills. Dobbins is an extremely talented runner. I dont think he has any restrictions this week, he looks great. He should easily go over this. Might be the bet of the week tbh. 

I will play the over on each team's team total. (Buffalo 27, Baltimore 24) I feel confident in both of these team's offenses. If the game as a whole goes over, its likely because both teams scored points, but if it goes under I just have a hard time seeing both of these offenses being under those figures. More likely it's just one offense that had a rough game. So, I think it's likely I win both, but I feel really good about winning at least one of these bets. 

 

Seattle is bad and I will continue to fade them every week. I really like DET to put up a lot of points against that defense. ARSB being injured is not ideal, but he finished the game last week so I expect him to go. Their OL is fantastic, and I think that really gives them a massive leg up this week. I may also play the over DET team total mainly because while I do think DETs defense is trending in the right direction, I do not think they are that good overall, and Seattle took a step forward on offense last week. So, I will probably hedge my bet a bit while still playing the side I like by taking the DET team total for half of the money I put on DET -4 (I bought the half point)

 

Last but not least - I put a hefty wager down on KC/TB under 47 on Sunday night right when the lines opened. It is now at 45 and I still like it there. TBs offensive line is not what it was. Brady at this point without Gronk is a different QB. The stats have shown this over a large sample size at this point. Tampa's other weapons are not what they were. Julio is hurt, who knows if he is playing, Godwin started practicing at this point but considering he pulled the same hamstring in the leg with his torn ACL, I dont know how effective he will be even if he plays. 

Brady is getting the ball out of his hands much faster than last year. That helps the under because even if he is completing a lot of passes and they are moving the ball, they will have long drives that chew clock. 

I already said my part about KC in the post above this one. They aren't the same, explosive offense they were. They want to run the ball. They dont really have great speed on the outside anymore. Their defensive arrow is pointing upward, and they are playing very sound, team football. 

Additionally, Tampa's defense is really good. Very clearly a top 5 defense in the league. 

I think both teams try to be deliberate with the football, neither team will want to make mistakes/the costly turnover that flips the game. I think the media talk will be "well we expected fireworks with these two QBs but really it was a defensive battle tonight"

I didnt even realize there was a hurricane coming in when I placed the bet, but that made me love it even more. I know they probably move the game to Minesota of all places, but it hasnt been announced yet. I assume the line already reflects that change though. The NFL wants this to be a showcase game and I doubt they put it up to chance. I would be surprised if it isnt moved, but if the game is played in Tampa, then that is fantastic for me. 

[aussie_eagle]

4 hours ago, N4L said:

This felt so close to a great week, but in review:

KC/IND - The muffed punt to start the game after IND went three and out completely flipped the game. It really gave IND a lot of confidence and got the crowd into the game. KC was not able to get anything going on the ground and it felt like everything was a struggle for them offensively. The big plays were just not there so it felt like every drive was difficult.

I thought KC's offense would have the upper hand with the extra prep time but they did not look in sync for large chunks of the game. 

I am unimpressed with the KC weapons outside of Kelce. Juju is the WR1 moving forward, and I will take a close look at his catch props moving forward because he is a volume WR with a low aDot, but he is not dynamic. He is a solid WR, no doubt, but he is more of a WR3 than a WR1. I will never understand what they saw in MVS to give him that contract, complete waste of money. Hardman is either not very good or injured (or both) and they dont even give snaps to their second round pick, Skyy Moore. Not sure what they are doing there or why they thought this group was good enough. I would not be surprised to see them trade for a WR at some point. 

These two teams are very physical in the trenches on both sides of the football. The Chiefs defense is somewhat impressive so far. Not a top 5 unit yet but they seemed very sound on all three levels. Seems like Spags has them playing as a unit. I will be looking to play KC unders a lot in the near term because I do think while they couldnt run the ball this week, they are very committed to running the ball this year, that OL has some maulers, they dont have tyreek to take the top off and score quickly, teams will continue to play a lot of two high against them to force them to dink and dunk and have long drives, which is just not what Mahomes wants to do, but that does tend to chew more clock, even if they are completing a lot of passes and scoring TDs. 

Also, not having Butker really hurt this bet. They ran a TERRIBLE fake FG and then missed another FG. Chris Jones also had a very questionable unsportsman conduct penalty for saying something after a third down sack on Matt Ryan. This was one of those games where it still felt like KC was the better team but the colts just got most of the breaks. Such is the NFL. 

DET/MIN Over - technically a push as it was written here but I did get another unit down in the morning when it was at 51. As Broncofan said, Campell took his foot off the gas, which was something that I was very surprised about because that seems to be against his MO. It took MIN longer than anticipated to figure out that Jefferson was getting doubled. It was like Kirk finally realized partway through the game he had to start throwing elsewhere, and it took a little bit to get their offense going. DET's D is better than I gave them credit for, but they are still another year or two from being a "good" defense.

Over 53 BUF/MIA - I felt really good about this one when it was 14-14 at halftime. To be fair, MIA had a takeaway inside Buffalo's 10 yard line that helped push it to that figure. I did not take into account the heat and how tired these guys were going to get. It looked like we had a shot to go over about partway through the third, but the pace just slowed way down. Miami only ran 39 offensive plays, thats crazy to do in a game you win, when the other team runs almost 70 plays. Pretty wild game overall. Will be more careful with divisional games moving forward.

Eagles team total over 27 - I still cant believe this happened two weeks in a row. The eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, then didnt score again. Last week I had the over in the MIN/PHI game and it had 31 points in the first half, while neither team scored in the second half. I didnt really watch much of this game, but further investigation is required as to how this offense can look like an absolute juggernaut in one half, and then get shut out in the second half. Granted, they were up multiple scores in each game, but youd still think they would be able to put together one scoring drive in the second half. Either it's a young team just coasting, or the other team adjusts, or something else.

Whatever it is, it's worth monitoring, because this will absolutely cost them a game, perhaps this week, maybe even this weekend. If the Jags fall behind early, I may take them live for +14 or higher.

Last 2 weeks vs both Washington and Minnesota the Eagles just ran the ball all 2nd half, even including downs such as 3rd and 5 and then punt it away. The defense has been playing solid so Minnesota and Washington could barely score so it didn't matter being multiple scores up to run it on passing downs. If Jags can score Eagles will keep scoring. If Jags end up around 10 points Eagles wont score more than 24-27

[MikeT14]

DK has the Up 7 promo tonight for Dolphins/Bengals. Def going Dolphins ML for it hoping it hits.