Weekly Bets Thread

[SmittyBacall]

5 hours ago, N4L said:

KC -5 - Andy Reid with a long week is typically a great bet. Gus Bradley is going to have his lunch money stolen from him. KC will simply outclass them. 

Over 52 DET/MIN - Detroits secondary is bad and Jefferson is going to slice them up. If he doesn't, they are going to be exposed elsewhere. DET has shown it can and will score points, they throw the ball a lot and Amon Ra has been fantastic. Lots of offensive talent and two so-so defenses. Both teams score TDs 

Under 42 GB/TB - GB is one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Rodgers always takes his time. Both teams want to run the ball. Lots of WRs missing from this game. Two very good defenses. 

Over 53 MIA/BUF - Miami has had problems stopping Josh Allen and the Ravens just put up tons of points on them last week. Bills are a well oiled machine on offense.  Thry are missing a lot in the secondary and have a couple DTs out again. Miami will know what they are up against and will come out firing. McDaniel isn't going to try and take the air out of the game, he will try and score. Fast paced game imo. 

ATL +1 - Seattle is terrible. They had 10 men on offense at one point last week. They triple teamed a backup rotational DT and left Nick Bosa unblocked. They put 4 RBs in at the same time and tried to run a HB pass. Just an absolute mess. ATL is pretty feisty. Their offense has some playmakers, Mariota has looked surprisingly sharp (for the most part), and their defense seems to be competent. 

Eagles team total over 27 - WSHs defense is bad, their secondary is very bad, jack del rio should not be employed in the NFL, dude is a dinosaur and a moron. Eagles offense puts tons of pressure on defenses. WSH doesn't have anyone to cover AJB and godert should feast over the middle. Eagles will also have no issues running the ball. AJB anytime TD is going to cash. Wentz turnovers under pressure can certainly help us win this one. 

Baltimore -2 - this is a bet on the Baltimore offense. I believe they will score points and that NE won't be able to keep up. Lamar is throwing the ball better than people realize. I'm just going to take the better QB on the better offense and not overthink it. Pats offense is bad until proven otherwise. They don't have Tyreek or waddle. 

Love all these.

[SmittyBacall]

Player milestone props I like this week (aside from the aforementioned Dortch, Samuel):

Michael Pittman 75 or more receiving yards +120 - Piggy backing off of @N4L predicted game script, I think Indy finds themselves behind most of the game and plays catch up. Pittman practiced all week and looks ready to go. Alpha in the passing attack.

Davante Adams 100 or more receiving yards +190 - Major down week last week, I’m expecting progression to the mean this week in a big way. Tennessee’s secondary is their weakness and there isn’t a corner that can hang with Davante. Renfrow likely out too means more target share. 

Jaylen Waddle 75 or more receiving yards +150 - In line with @N4L again, I like this game to be an explosive match up. The good thing about betting on yardage for Waddle or Tyreek is it might only take one play. Bills secondary decimated.

Riskier plays:

Kyle Pitts 75 or more receiving yards +290 - If there was any week on the schedule for Kyle Pitts to be Kyle Pitts and break the funk, it’s this week. Seahawks historically are one of worst at covering TE’s. More pressure being applied to Arthur Smith about Pitts lack of usage.

Carson Wentz 300 passing yards or more +390 - Call me @aceinthehouse, but Wentz has hit this in 2 straight weeks. I like the Eagles to hang 30 and for the Commanders to play catch up. Eagles have a good secondary (as evidenced by last Monday), but their trio of receivers will make this closer than the standard 249.5 yard line for Wentz. 

[Broncofan]

With the 3.2U extra winnings, I'm going to add a few more plays, including one longshot player prop that I do think is weighed at least 2x too low probability wise.

Jared Goff 3+ pass TD's +450 - a B365 prop, milestones, instead of the O1.5 -110.   The pass D is definitely vulnerable, and I do think this is a shootout.  It's no better than a 40-45 percent prob....but the payout is literally almost 20 percent.  I'll kick myself if only 2 TD's get thrown, but kinda feel like trusting my gut here.

Patrick Mahomes 3+ pass TD's +120 - against the Cover 3 D that Gus Bradley likes, Mahomes has gone 3+ TD's on 70 percent of his games.    No Shaq Leonard, makes the D even leakier.    For + money, I have to take a shot. 

Clyde Edwards Helaire O16.5 rec yards - nod to @agarcia34 with no Shaq Leonard, it's one to back for sure.

DJ Moore O55.5 rec yards - normally Lattimore Island is a problem, but not for Moore - he's gone 80+ yards vs. NO 4 of his last 5 games.   Gotta take a shot here.

Also added a 0.5U parley (the 2 other ATS & player props are free, so YOLO) with Goff O1.5 pass TD's (less risk in a parley) / CEH O16.5 rec yds / DJ Moore O55.5 rec yds / J-Johnson O22.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O45.5 rec yds / G-Dortch O34.5 rec yds (less risk as well) for +4300.   BOL/LFG!

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

43 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Player milestone props I like this week (aside from the aforementioned Dortch, Samuel):

Michael Pittman 75 or more receiving yards +120 - Piggy backing off of @N4L predicted game script, I think Indy finds themselves behind most of the game and plays catch up. Pittman practiced all week and looks ready to go. Alpha in the passing attack.

Davante Adams 100 or more receiving yards +190 - Major down week last week, I’m expecting progression to the mean this week in a big way. Tennessee’s secondary is their weakness and there isn’t a corner that can hang with Davante. Renfrow likely out too means more target share. 

Jaylen Waddle 75 or more receiving yards +150 - In line with @N4L again, I like this game to be an explosive match up. The good thing about betting on yardage for Waddle or Tyreek is it might only take one play. Bills secondary decimated.

Riskier plays:

Kyle Pitts 75 or more receiving yards +290 - If there was any week on the schedule for Kyle Pitts to be Kyle Pitts and break the funk, it’s this week. Seahawks historically are one of worst at covering TE’s. More pressure being applied to Arthur Smith about Pitts lack of usage.

Carson Wentz 300 passing yards or more +390 - Call me @aceinthehouse, but Wentz has hit this in 2 straight weeks. I like the Eagles to hang 30 and for the Commanders to play catch up. Eagles have a good secondary (as evidenced by last Monday), but their trio of receivers will make this closer than the standard 249.5 yard line for Wentz. 

Love the value on Pitts 75+ 120 & Pittman 75+ 290.  SEA / KC D both vulnerable and gamescript should follow.   Tailing both. 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

Kirk over 282.5 passing yards

Adams over 83.5 rec yards

Allen over 280.5 passing yards

Montgomery over 69.5 rushing yards

Gibson over 15.5 rec yards

Mark Andrews over 57.5 rec yards

CEH over 16.5 rec yards

Kamara over 51.5 rushing yards

+14555 

Threw some lunch money on it to see what could happen 

[Broncofan]

With Jakobi Meyers out, that leaves 2 juicy TD props - Kendrick Bourne +400 / +5000 2+ and my fave from last year, Lil' Jordan Humphrey at 1400 / +12500.    Given it's the BAL secondary, both are worth a 0.9U/0.1U stab. 

[adamq]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

With Jakobi Meyers out, that leaves 2 juicy TD props - Kendrick Bourne +400 / +5000 2+ and my fave from last year, Lil' Jordan Humphrey at 1400 / +12500.    Given it's the BAL secondary, both are worth a 0.9U/0.1U stab. 

Found Humphrey at +1200 on betmgm, all the others are down to 800-900

[Broncofan]

With news that Taysom Hill is out - this opens the door wide open for Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD's +160.   And I love the +500/+6000 2+ already bet on Juwan Johnson even more. 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, adamq said:

Found Humphrey at +1200 on betmgm, all the others are down to 800-900

Yeah you can get an edge if the news comes out on Fri/Sat for longer, but on Sunday you need to act fast.  It was down to +1000 on B365 literally 20 mins after I posted that.  CLV!

[bigbadbuff]

Good work in here boys. Don’t post too much in here but i read weekly.

Cashed in on the Dortch and CEH receiving yards props.

[Soggust]

Anyone got anything they like for tonight's game?

[SmittyBacall]

6 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Anyone got anything they like for tonight's game?

Ahem, @Broncofan.

[Broncofan]

55 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Anyone got anything they like for tonight's game?

 

49 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Ahem, @Broncofan.

With Arik Armstead out, 2 props really stand out:

-Javonte Williams receiving yards / TD prop +150.  I was kinda hoping they would boost it for SNF, but no luck so far lol.

-If you want to take DEN ML, you can get all 3 boosted on B365 for +600.   I'll take a separate play on DEN ML and RACE to 20/25 for 2U total, but I'll take 1U on O19.5 rec yards and 2U on the TD prop. 

-B365 did offer a free SGP refund offer, so I'm taking a SGP play with DEN ML & Jeudy/Sutton 75+ yards each.  I think Jeudy more of a decoy, but it's +2500 and free 0.5U refund, so YOLO....

Edited September 26, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Javonte Williams receiving yards / TD prop +150.  I was kinda hoping they would boost it for SNF, but no luck so far lol.

Receiving or rushing?

[Broncofan]

On 9/23/2022 at 1:36 PM, Broncofan said:

OK added 7 player props and 3 5 Long Shot TD's:

ATS/ML & RACE

Listed above.   Added RACE's x 3 to DET and X2 to ATL, so that's 9.5U.  I also have a free play at Fanduel, so I'm putting 0.5U on BAL -1 (nice line now) / PHI -3 / BUF -2.5 / HOU ML / DET +3 / ATL ML (and with only ATL late, I can hedge out if it's winning) for +5000.   So that's 9.5U at play (since 0.5U parley is refunded if it loses).

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

EDIT ADDED SUN AM Jared Goff 3+ pass TD's +450 - wild card flyer, but the DET OL is legit, the MIN pass D is vulnerable with no Harrison Smith, and I think it's a 40-45 percent prob, so the +450 is insane value I have to take a shot on.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +120 - when Mahomes faces Cover-3 he goes 3+ TD's 70 percent of time.   At +money gotta take a stab.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - Clyde Edwards Helaire 16.5 rec yds - credit to @agarcia34 here.   No Shaq Leonard easy call.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - DJ Moore O55.5 rec yds - normally Lattimore Island is a problem, but not for DJ Moore.  He's gone +80 yards 4 of last 5 games.  Have to take a stab.

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD's +160 - with Taysom Hill inactive, it means all snaps go through Jameis.  I love this line at +160.   Love the Juwan Johnson TD props a little more now too.

Dallas Goedert O46.5 rec yds - as long as it's below 50, I'll keep playing it.  #2 target, and a mismatch almost every week that they look to use.

Curtis Samuel O46.5 rec yds 2U - this is way too low.   He's their go-to underneath guy, the CMC in Scott Turner's scheme.   And with the attention drawn to Mclaurin / Dotson, I'd have put the number closer to 60's.   

Juwan Johnson O22.5 rec yds - same deal as last week.  He's the short-intermediate guy, and a total mismatch.  Relatively low volume, but guaranteed floor of 4-5 targets.   Until the number is closer to 30, easy play each week.

Tyler Conklin O3.5 catches +120 (now +110) - easy call once it came out.   He's getting at least 6 targets a game, and he's the full-time starter.   Total safety valve, so be careful on yard props - his ADOT is like 1 yard (LOL).  So hit the catch prop instead.

Treylon Burks O35.5 rec yds - on the other spectrum, clearly TEN's best boundary receiver and YAC threat.   They're going to him with a a limited snap count - as that rises, his numbers will explode.     This should be more like mid-high 40's. 

EDIT ADDED SUN AM Michael Pittman 75+ rec yds +120 - following @N4L's find here.  Love him and Mahomes/Kelce in DFS.

LATE

Aaron Jones O27.5 receiving yards - with all the injuries, they will have to turn to Jones in the pass game (and with stout run D, better way to leverage him).   Easy call, thought it would be high 30's.

Marcus Mariota O28.5 rushing yards - against running QB's, SEA's ILB's often give up more rush yards on the boundary (stout up the middle).   This is an easy number to target, while Donald & co (and big LAR lead early) suppressed the #'s last week, he put up 60+ against NO.   Expected a number closer to 40.

EDIT ADDED SAT - Greg Dortch 50+ Rec yds 2U +240 milestone (+180 FD) - credit to @11sanchez11 he found it at 36+ yds   I can’t pass up the 50 yd milestone as I have the projection in low 60’s   

EDIT ADDED SUN AM - Kyle Pitts 75+ rec yards +290 - another one of @N4L's finds.   Love the squeaky wheel, game script and SEA D vulnerability here.

 

I'm really interested the TAM/GB props and TD plays with all the inactives that could be there, but the books rightfully won't release any.  Don't blame 'em.   Last free bet week of the year (I suspect) for 0.5U, and I'm going to go with a +5000 of D-Goedert O46.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O46.5 rec yds / T-Burks O35.5 rec yds / J-Johnson O22.5 rec yds / T-Conklin O3.5 catches +110 / Mariota O28.5  rush yards.  EDIT SUN AM:  Going to add a 0.5U parley of my own with Goff O1.5 pass TD's (less risk in parley) / CEH O16.5 rec yds / DJ Moore O56.5 rec yds / J-Johnson O25.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O45.5 rec yds / G-Dortch O34.5 rec yds for +4300.      By only going with Marcus Mariota & Dortch for the late games, it also means if the first 5 player props hit in the 1 PM games, I can hedge an under if I feel like it and guarantee a nice W no matter what.  So that's 14.5U at risk

LONGSHOT TD'S:

EARLY

Tony Jones +2000 1U FANDUEL - pure gamble that Kamara sits again.   If he does, Jones actually got more snaps and pass work.   Pure flier, they don't even have a 2+ TD prop lol.  EDIT SAT LATE PM:  News that Kamara is back, but odds also down to +500, so Fanduel offered a +120 cashout, I'll gladly take it given the TD props are legit 20-1 lol.  +1.2U profit and 1U returned

Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - the starting TE and a guy they look to in the RZ.  Worth the value here.

Jody Fortson +1000 / +12500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - interesting factoid, he only gets 1-2 targets and about 10-15 snaps a game max - but he's in their 12 package, and a guy Mahomes actually looks to in the RZ.  Think of him as the Donald Parham of the Chiefs.  Worth a sniff. 

EDIT LATE SAT PM ADDITION - Tommy Sweeney +1000 / +12500 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - VOIDED ; with Dawson Knox battling a foot issue from MNF, just playing a hunch he may either be inactive, or get more snaps.  He's already seen 1 EZ target in the first 2 games, so a bit of a flier, but I'm frerolling 3.2U profit, don't mind a huge payout 0.5U flier. 

EDIT NEW ADDITION.  Zamir White +850 FANDUEL 0.8U /+12500 2+ (B365) 0.2U - see post below with new Josh Jacobs info.    CASHED OUT AT +200 Win Sat PM - +2U profit and 1U returned (see post Page 211)

EDIT NEW ADDITION FRI  Jakob Johnson +2500 0.5U - see post below.  Sites don't even have 2+ TD props lol.

EDIT NEW ADDITION SUN AM  Kendrick Bourne +400 / +5000 (0.9U / 0.1U) - with Meyers likely out.

EDIT NEW ADDITION SUN AM Lil' Jordan Humphrey +1400 / +12500 (0.4U / 0.1U) - with Meyers likely out. 

Will be interested to see if there are bargains in the TAM-GB TD props.   So far only 5.0U at risk.

29U risk total

 

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 3 TNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

6-6 ATS, 1-4 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK)

-4.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

22-21

-1.0U (3-6 in 2U plays - UGH)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

4-14 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 4 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop with starter status in doubt).

+10.6U

 

TOTAL:   +5.9U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 TNF & SNF TD cashouts - +8.0U  )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

So a mixed bag, but the big confidence bets paid off, which created a nice profit day.

ATS/ML & RACE

5-3 on ATS, 2-1 on RACE/ML, 3.8U profit- AGAIN snakebitten by a dog who bungled a game late - DET had a 24-14 lead, and didn't kick a FG on 4th and 2 from the 29, but then later tried a 55 yard FG and missed - lost the RACE to 25 (won to 20) and the ML as a result.   TOTAL Hackett-like job by the DET staff.  And HOU had a game in their sights..until a brutal TO led to a gift GW FG.   Man.    At least the evals are right - it was great to hit ATL +150 ML, and RACE to 25, but even there it was a bad break to not hit the +500 RACE to 30 with the botched fumble.   Still, with the RACE to 20 DET and the RACE to 25 SEA for +260, along with the +150 ML hit with ATL - it means a 3.8U profit.

PLAYER PROPS

5-9 (UGH), +2.8U (YAY) - of note, I went 0-3 on the pass TD props.  Going to lay off that one.   Got unlucky with Goedert with gamescript getting away from any usage, and DJ Moore was absolutely torched by Baker Mayfield's awful play (the D won that game going away).  Bad Jameis means no NO props for a while lol.    

BUT, because all the 2U plays hit - Curtis Samuel 2U, Dortch +240 2U and Kyle Pitts +300 (not 2U but paid an extra 2U)....it actually ends up with a 2.8U profit (CRAZY).    

LONGSHOT TD

0-5, -4U - Johnson was out in the packages, and so was Bourne/Lil'Jordan, but nothing really close.   Gotta remember to hit the +500 range if the snaps are guaranteed (although +1000 to +2500 is justifiable, if we know they'll see at least 5-6 RZ snaps and have 1-2 targets).

So it's incremental, but that's a +2.6U Sunday day slate.  I'll take it given how many whiffs that weren't that close player prop wise. 

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 3 SNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

11-9 ATS, 3-5 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 vs. LAC, and now DET game management vs. MIN could be amazing instead of OK)

-0.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

22-21

+1.8U (6-6 in 2U plays - thank you week 3 where a 5-9 week gets profit thanks to all the big payout except Goff plays hitting)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

4-14 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 4 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop with starter status in doubt).

+6.6U

 

TOTAL:   +8.2U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 TNF & SNF TD cashouts - +10.8U  )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Broncofan