Weekly Bets Thread

[braylon]

Is Shakir a lock to start? Or is Kumerow also a possibility? Anyone know?

[Broncofan]

17 minutes ago, braylon said:

Is Shakir a lock to start? Or is Kumerow also a possibility? Anyone know?

No guarahtees.  But he’s active and warming up with Allen.   
 

The issue by waiting - with the news Davis is out the odds have dropped massively.   He’s already +500 / +3500 in the original Book I found.  Which is close to that 25 percent prob I was estimating so not really worth it.   
 

The window to get insane value closes by the time ppl are sure.   It’s why I also don’t go crazy with bet amounts.   If I lose no sweat.  And if he was inactive it voids.  

Edited September 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK updated MNF card:

ATS/ML & RACE

LOSS - TEN +10.5 -120 - the news that BUF is without 2 interior DL allows the Titans to execute their Derrick Henry based run game.    I have zero expectations that the Titans will win (although anything is possible), but 10 is simply too wide.  I would hammer this for 2+ units if they were at home (realizing they'd likely be 7+), but this follows the "take TEN as a dog, fade them as favorites" betting history under HC Mike Vrabel with TEN.   I'll stick to 1.2U and get the extra 0.5 pts as it could be crucial here.

0-1

PLAYER PROPS

LOSS -Josh Allen O39.5 rush yds - you know the drill.   A decent pass rush means you take Allen's rush prop.

WIN Stefon Diggs O6.5 catches +110 2U - no Kristian Fulton.   No Gabe Davis, ppl are thinking TEN can take him away, I don't see it.

LOSS Derrick Henry O87.5 rush yds 2U - no way I would touch this with BUF's improved rush D....except they're leaky again at least for this week.   DT Tim Settle is doubtful and DT Ed Oliver is out.  That's HUGE for Henry's rush props.   I'm tempted to go O99.5 for +180, but rather take the lower hanging fruit here.

LOSS Kyle Philips O29.5 rec yds 2U - the top separator and top target guy.  I do not get this line at all, except for the rookie status.  
 

LOSS Kirk Cousins O1.5 pass TD's - PHI run D is not how they give up TD's when Jordan Davis is in there.  So I'm happy to go here.  The crazy # is O2.5 at +240, I'll do that personally, but won't put it on the books here.

LOSS Justin Jefferson O7.5 recs +120 - yes, I know Slay will likely draw coverage.  Just that JJ can't be covered.    And he & Cousins have that connection, much like A-Rod / Adams.

LOSS AJ Brown O73.5 rec yds 2U - speaking of volume hogs....man.   10 yards too low.  Hammering.

WIN Dallas Goedert O46.5 rec yds - the 2nd target, number is still too low.   If it's below 50, I'm going to keep playing it until Goedert's volume / production shows otherwise.

WIN Kenneth Gainwell O10.5 rec yds - the MIN pass D is vulnerable, and I expect Gainwell to get at least 4-5 targets.   

3-6

-3.8U

TD PROPS

WIN Stefon Diggs +300 TD (max bet 3U - B365 only) - I lost this bet boost from B365 with Javonte Williams last week - PAIN.   But the process is sound.   Diggs has a 40-45 percent TD probability, so I wasn't going to bet it this week.  But at +300?   Have to.  With Kristian Fulton out as well, I just hope the value hits here.

 

LOSS Kyle Phillips +1200 / +12500 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - the line's come down to +500 to +700.  Come on this one alone would fix Week 2's ledger!  If he's inactive, the bet voids, so willing to go here early this week when he was on the injury report; top target and top separator on the team.

LOSS Treylon Burks +600 / +7000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - FANDUEL ALERT -  Posters often mention they can't get the same odds for TD's that I post; the books I get in Canada are often way more generous than the odds US / world bettors get.  This is one of the few all US players can get.  B365 has him at +300, Fanduel has him at +450.   +600 is just insane.  I think Burks & Philips both have 25+ percent probability given how much they play.   So gotta take a stab here.

LOSS Khalil Shakir +1000 / +11000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - The background - Gabe Davis' status is undeclared.  But IMO this is easy - Davis plays, Shakir is inactive, and the bet voids.   Davis is inactive, Shakir is the other boundary receiver, and becomes an instant 25+ percent probability for an EZ target (or more).

 

I'm doing a SGP with my book's 0.5U free bet that has a Diggs TD / Henry TD and Henry for 100+ and Diggs for 90+ and TEN +10.5 for +3000.   Never pass up a free bet from the books, and hopefully either TD prop, a great night on the props / TEN +10 and we're heading into Week 3 in the right direction.  BOL!

1-3

+6U

SEASON TALLY up to Week 2 MNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

6-5 ATS, 1-4 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK)

-3.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

20-20

-3.6U (Now 2-6 in 2U plays - UGH)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

3-12 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play).

+5.4U

 

TOTAL:   -2.4U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 to TNF - -9.8U <ugh>)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

Ugh, Week 2 was just bad. 

Frankly, I was lucky not to take an absolute bath - thanks to the boosted +300 Diggs TD play.  

MNF was again close - Cousins played so horribly though it shattered the Jefferson O7.5 catch play AND his O1.5 TD play.   That in turn removed any need for PHI to throw the ball in the 4Q - so AJ Brown stood at his 68 yard number for the last 3 PHI drives.   Frankly I did get lucky Gainwell got his prop with 1 catch, and Diggs O6.5 catches +110 2U, Goedert O46.5 and Gainwell O10.5 rec yards.   In a game with an OU of 52 pts, to get a 24-7 score brutalized the overs.

The best thing about Week is that it's over, lol.   Totals updated.

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 2:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

6-5 ATS, 1-4 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK)

-3.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

20-20

-3.6U (Now 2-6 in 2U plays - UGH)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

3-12 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play).

+5.4U

 

TOTAL:   -2.4U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 to TNF - -9.8U <ugh>)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[N4L]

On 9/19/2022 at 11:31 AM, N4L said:

I like the over in the MIN/PHI game. Eagles defense gave up a lot to Detroit. Det has a lot of talent, but dalvin, Jefferson, Kirk are better than swift, Amon Ra, and Goff. 

Eagles offense has a lot to like with hurts rushing abilities and their three top targets being so talented. Plus, their OL is damn good. 

Seems like a game where the pace picks up when one of the teams jumps out to a lead. 

Damn, 31 points in the first half and then neither team scores. 

 

On 9/19/2022 at 11:40 AM, Broncofan said:

The only thing to be aware of is DET IMO has a top 5 OL.  PHI’s D could see more success against lesser OL’s.  I lean your way but keep the above in mind.  Love the MIN scheme & aggression.  Why I backed them and PHI as SB dark horses.   

They could be underwhelming though because their DC Gannon is pretty vanilla.  He claimed it was because of personnel last year.  It’s only week 1 but worth watching. 

great points here. Philly DL definitely dominated, and their corners were sitting on routes because they knew Kirk wouldnt have time. 

Philly looks like a powerhouse after two weeks. I just looked at their schedule. They might be the one seed in the NFC. 

[Broncofan]

43 minutes ago, N4L said:

Damn, 31 points in the first half and then neither team scores. 

 

great points here. Philly DL definitely dominated, and their corners were sitting on routes because they knew Kirk wouldnt have time. 

Philly looks like a powerhouse after two weeks. I just looked at their schedule. They might be the one seed in the NFC. 

 

PHI was +1000 to win 1 seed in preseason.  I believe I mentioned it (EDIT:  FOUND IT - SEE ABOVE), I'm sitting on 2 tickets with PHI Division Winner +300 and #1 Seed +1000 for 4U each.   They had the easiest NFC schedule of the "good" teams...and I didn't like what I saw with DAL.   Given how weak the NFCE has been (notwithstanding the 2-0 NYG record), I figured the division winner could have a great W-L record, and an easier path than other divisions winners.   At +1000 they were higher than 5 other teams (including Dallas) - just saw too much value, as I thought they were a top 3 bet at worst, given their schedule.

They had the easiest schedule in the NFC and they're now favorites in 13 of the next 15 games.  Obv no guarantee but this is a great start to that play.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK so after 2 weeks,  I think it's a great time to review how betting is going so far with ATS/ML, and O/U.  Ppl can kinda figure it out, but the data sometimes help paint an even stronger picture.

 

Again, this follows an increasing trend - 60% dogs covered ATS last year.    And when you cover, you win about 60-70% of the time straight up.   In my case, I've just missed the dog shots (don't feel bad about JAX @ WAS and LAC @ KC at all, just the way it goes).   But overall, the strategy to go ML/RACE pays off, and being more of a dog backer is successful.   I'm going to go out of my way to be 50/50 in favorites/dogs for sure.

 

As for the totals, Unders are winning in a massive way:

 

There are only 4 teams that are Over in 2/2 - ATL, CLE, DET & WAS.    So beware on thinking overs are lock.  Yes, the O's will catch up somewhat.   And yes, they'll adjust the lines downward - but only if the bettors start adjusting and taking more unders.  Yes, it's not nearly so much fun - but it's making Vegas a ton of $.  

I say that as a bettor who takes player overs 90+ percent of the time - but my record this year shows Vegas is tightening the value gap player props have enjoyed.   Keep all the above in mind.   I'm certainly going to narrow my player prop plays where I see a 15-20% advantage (for low totals), or a 10-15 yd advantage.   

Edited September 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Now, as for this week - a word of caution.   Vegas is well aware that bettors start to go off trends - and then a major trap gets set up on Week 3. 

This is a well-described phenomenon.   56 percent doesn't sound like a lot, but going from 0-16 to >50 percent means bettors often over-react. 

Now, LV plays @TEN, and NO @ CAR, so that's automatically 2-2.   But the other 4 teams - beware in fading them, ESP if they are dogs.   

We're already seeing it with DEN, they went from a 2.5 pt fave to a 1.5 pt dog.   IND likely will be a >7 pt dog from the opener +6.5.   Wouldn't surprise me if LAR drops to the important -3, while CIN is at -4.5 @ NYJ.  Beware of thinking it's an auto-fade.   Vegas makes a mint off this thinking.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Now, understanding the above, for Week 3, if you can find some books (like B365), they actually release early lines and you can get in on some juicy odds.  There's risk it goes the wrong way, but for example, I got 5 plays I'm very happy with (and 1 that hasn't moved):

WEEK 3 ATS/ML & RACE EARLY BIRD BETS(Taken Before MNF games - RACE not out yet)

EARLY

HOU ML +150 (now +120) @ CHI - same deal here.  The only thing I don't like is HOU's vulnerability to the run game, which CHI can exploit.   But again it's +150 instead of pick 'em odds.   

PHI -3 (now -6.5 then back to -3 - lol) @ WAS - not much to say, my eyes popped that this was the opener pre-MNF.  DET keeping close with the backdoor cover and no 2nd game was why it was low. 

BUF -4 (now -6.5) @ MIA - same deal pre-MNF.    BUF really gives MIA fits on both sides of the ball. I get the WR's make a big diff, but I don't think we'll see BUF be less than 7 pt faves too many more times, have to take -4.

DET +7 (now +6) @ MIN, DET ML +260 (now +210), RACE to 20/25/30 (+220 / +360/+600) - the ATS kings and frankly, I think it's a pick 'em, their OL is that good.  

BAL -3 @ NE (stable...for now) - I get BAL's secondary has issues - but NE doesn't have the speed on either side of the ball to make the Ravens pay.    I'm surprised the line hasn't moved already TBH.

 

LATE

ATL ML +150 (now +100) @ SEA, RACE to 20/25 (+140/+260) - ATL is far more proficient on O, and their D is actually OK.  Big talent difference IMO.   Being @ SEA I get why they're dogs, but getting +150 vs. +115 makes it a no-brainer to take IMO.

EDIT:  ADDED BEFORE TNF - GB - TAM U43 - OL issues for both teams, good D's for both teams, and a bunch of missing WR's.   I think the line is going to be closer to 40 by game day, so taking it now.

Also Fanduel offers a free refund on parley that's 4 legs or more at -200.    So I added BAL -3 / NO -2.5 / BUF (alt line) -3/ DET +6 / HOU ML & ATL ML 0.5U for +5000.  Nice part is that only ATL is the late game, so if the first 5 hit, I can hedge the ATL/SEA game (same idea with player parley, also free from diff site lol).

9.5U risk

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Dallas Goedert O46.5 rec yds - as long as it's below 50, I'll keep playing it.  #2 target, and a mismatch almost every week that they look to use.

Curtis Samuel O46.5 rec yds 2U - this is way too low.   He's their go-to underneath guy, the CMC in Scott Turner's scheme.   And with the attention drawn to Mclaurin / Dotson, I'd have put the number closer to 60's.   

Juwan Johnson O22.5 rec yds - same deal as last week.  He's the short-intermediate guy, and a total mismatch.  Relatively low volume, but guaranteed floor of 4-5 targets.   Until the number is closer to 30, easy play each week.

Tyler Conklin O3.5 catches +120 (now +110) - easy call once it came out.   He's getting at least 6 targets a game, and he's the full-time starter.   Total safety valve, so be careful on yard props - his ADOT is like 1 yard (LOL).  So hit the catch prop instead.

Treylon Burks O35.5 rec yds - on the other spectrum, clearly TEN's best boundary receiver and YAC threat.   They're going to him with a a limited snap count - as that rises, his numbers will explode.     This should be more like mid-high 40's. 

LATE

Aaron Jones O27.5 receiving yards - with all the injuries, they will have to turn to Jones in the pass game (and with stout run D, better way to leverage him).   Easy call, thought it would be high 30's.

Marcus Mariota O28.5 rushing yards - against running QB's, SEA's ILB's often give up more rush yards on the boundary (stout up the middle).   This is an easy number to target, while Donald & co (and big LAR lead early) suppressed the #'s last week, he put up 60+ against NO.   Expected a number closer to 40.

I'm really interested the TAM/GB props and TD plays with all the inactives that could be there, but the books rightfully won't release any.  Don't blame 'em.   Last free bet week of the year (I suspect) for 0.5U, and I'm going to go with a +5000 of D-Goedert O46.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O46.5 rec yds / T-Burks O35.5 rec yds / J-Johnson O22.5 rec yds / T-Conklin O3.5 catches +110 / Mariota O28.5  rush yards.    By only going with Marcus Mariota, it also means if the first 5 player props hit in the 1 PM games, I can hedge an under if I feel like it and guarantee a nice W no matter what.  So that's 8U at risk

8U risk

LONGSHOT TD'S:

EARLY

Tony Jones +2000 1U FANDUEL - pure gamble that Kamara sits again.   If he does, Jones actually got more snaps and pass work.   Pure flier, they don't even have a 2+ TD prop lol.  If Kamara's active, I'll void for a 10 percent loss at worst.

Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - the starting TE and a guy they look to in the RZ.  Worth the value here.

Jody Fortson +1000 / +12500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - interesting factoid, he only gets 1-2 targets and about 10-15 snaps a game max - but he's in their 12 package, and a guy Mahomes actually looks to.   Think of him as the Donald Parham of the Chiefs.  Worth a sniff. 

EDIT NEW  Zamir White +850 / +12500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - FANDUEL 1-TD / B365 2-TD - see writeup page 211, CASHED OUT AT 2U profit.

EDIT NEW Jakob Johnson +2500 0.5U - see writeup page 211

Will be interested to see if there are bargains in the TAM-GB TD props.   So far only 3U at risk.

4.5U risk

 

22U risk total

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 3 TNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

6-6 ATS, 1-4 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK)

-4.2U

 

PLAYER PROPS

22-21

-1.0U (3-6 in 2U plays - UGH)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

4-14 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF).

+7.4U

 

TOTAL:   +2.2U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 TNF - +4.8U  )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Broncofan
Full Sunday card updated on Friday

[Broncofan]

OK so for tomorrow's TNF game, one ATS play, and the OU is 38.5 (!!!) - of which it's gone under 7/7x in the history of primetime football.    That's a ridiculously low line (well-earned).

So, onto ATS / player props & TD props, of which I have a few on both sides:

ATS

PIT +4.5 - love CLE talent when healthy and Watson there   And don’t trust Trubisky at all.  But with Clowney out the run D and complementary pass rush to Garett suffers.  Add in the familiarity with a division game and the low totals gotta go with the dog.

PLAYER PROPS

Diontae Johnson O5.5 catches +140 2U - PIT's O is so high-volume, but low ADOT with Trubisky.   Diontae-J has been getting 10+ targets both weeks - but barely hits 50-60 yards.  I am very comfortable with the rec props - but no way I'd touch yardage.   The + money really makes it worthwhile

Pat Friermuth O4.5 catches +140 - Along the same lines, he's the true safety valve - he could get 5/30, though, so I don't want the yardage prop.   And he's had 7+ targets in 6 of the last 7 games, which keeps me comfortable at 5 catches (whereas last year he was + money at 4 catches, Vegas has caught on, but still OK on a short week).

EDIT - PULLED WITH WIND  - Donovan People-Jones O2.5 catches +110 -  I know, he got a goose egg last week.  But the PIT D will look to take away Cooper (unlike NYJ's D, for whatever reason). 

EDIT - ADDED @N4L PROP - Kareem Hunt O2.5 catches - see next page.  

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Pat Friermuth +300 / +4000 TD (now already +260/+3000 - 0.8U/0.2U) - not only is he the safety valve, but also a popular RZ target.   ESP with CLE's LB's still an issue, gotta take a shot here. 

David Njoku +500 / +6000 2+ FANDUEL (0.8U/0.2U) - CLE likes the big bodies in the RZ.  Good odds but can’t compare to…

Harrison Bryant +600 / +9500 2+ TD FANDUEL (now already +450 / +6000 - 0.8U/0.2U) - on the CLE side, while David Njoku is the name, he's still a blocking force - while Bryant runs about 2x as many routes.  This is the guy to target for TD props, but he's still played as a longshot.    I don't like him for volume (especially with Minkah as the safety), but the value on the TD prop is worth a play.

So that's 7U on the line, while I think it's low scoring, see value in the plays above.  BOL/LFG to start Week 3!

 

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Broncofan
ATS added and DPJ pulled

[bucksavage1]

 I like the Falcons/Texans in a 6 point teaser. Take ‘em both to +8/+8.5. I’ll take my chances on them not losing to Seattle and Chicago by more than a TD.

Both teams should some fight

[Broncofan]

21 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said:

 I like the Falcons/Texans in a 6 point teaser. Take ‘em both to +8/+8.5. I’ll take my chances on them not losing to Seattle and Chicago by more than a TD.

Both teams should some fight

I obviously agree, I'm going ML with HOU & ML/RACE's with ATL.  The ATL O is legit (crazy to say, but I'm sold).

Edited September 21, 2022 by Broncofan

[bucksavage1]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I obviously agree, I'm going ML with HOU & ML/RACE's with ATL.  The ATL O is legit (crazy to say, but I'm sold).

Definitely bigger payout with the ML but you’ll increase your chances of cashing the ticket with the teaser 

[Broncofan]

Huge wind issues with 20+ mph forecast.   Avoid the kickers in DFS.    That contracts the game even further and no Clowney is enough for me to take PIT +4.5.   Trubisky is the reason I’m not backing the ML.   
 

This pulls the deep ball throws though - so no DPJ prop - voided.  

[Broncofan]

Also adding GB-TAM U43 to Sunday’s card, I expect it will go below 40 by Sunday.

- First to score a TD wins?

Edited September 22, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

I'm not playing it, but to get used to the unders....the one under that sticks out to me is ironically the best RB of the bunch (sorry Najee) - U84.5 Nick Chubb.

Nothing against Chubb, but a short week, a 60-40 split, and a D that know each other well, screams under.    I won't take it because with the wind, it might be all run & short passes (which is why I take the short pass props only).   But more to start tracking myself on under bet ID's...